Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

From what I observed, the death of American Oil & Gas happened with Biden becoming President. My friends/family in oil are saying it’s over.
I think the trend happened before Biden, probably starting with Obama. The big ESG movements have been taking over energy boards and regulatory agencies for many years. All Trump did, or COULD do, was lightly apply the breaks for this movement. A lot of private equity money and hedge fund money has been driving this for many years.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Recently via not renewing previous contracts or allowing for new drilling contracts.

You have to explore to countries like Algeria and Tunis and Libya (where future European oil will come from in lieu of Russia)

Also thing like allowing 20percent ethanol in gas will directly destroy the current fleet of vehicles in the market.

All Biden. Period.

Low gas under Trump was a result of Russia and OPEC trying to jack up our short lived hegemony as King Oil exporter.

From what I observed, the death of American Oil & Gas happened with Biden becoming President. My friends/family in oil are saying it’s over.

No. Not over. Really just shows you the importance of a strong oil economy.

These bozos will be out of office and once $7 and $8 gas hits... Americans are going to tell folks to kiss their ESG....er i mean posterior.

Gas will come back y'all
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Agree on the ethanol issue. That’s a big big factor which is rarely discussed. I hope you are right about the future.
There's a lot of money in Ethanol corn. It's a terrible product for the combustible engines we use in cars which are only rated for 10percent ethanol.

Creeping this from 10 to 15 is bad, but making it 20 percent is a deliberate form of economic warfare against car manufacturers and the oil industry.

Biden picked this up and carried the torch from the Obama handlers he has now.
 

dicknixon72

Pelican
^The auto manufacturers love this, planned obsolescence on steroids... Big oil also is in the loop, companies like BP are heavily invested into biofuel production.

The automakers love this less than you think.

Planned obsolescence has been built into the modern automobile since General Motors introduced automotive styling and subsequently annual styling changes in the late-20s.

Like any large industry, automakers invest and tool based on future predictions and value stability over constantly moving targets. They already went though this in the 1970s/80s and don't want to do it again.

After the first oil shocks of 1973, General Motors and Ford both invested billions in downsizing platforms giving birth to the '77 B-bodies and '79 Panther cars respectively. This was pre-CAFE, btw, so this was a genuine response to market concerns. The cars were immediate runaway successes, combining more advanced engineering, small-block V8s and large-displacement V6s, with chassis that both weighed hundreds of pounds less than before, were trimmed by at least a foot, and yet boasted greater space efficiency and excellent highway fuel economy with sacrificing any real performance.

GM, however, felt another oil shock was coming in the mid/late-80s with an accompanying recession and further downsized most of the lines in the FWD E- and C/D-bodies ('85 DeVilles/Fleetwood , Ninety-Eight, '86 Electra/LeSabre/Eighty-Eighty). The personal luxury coupes (Eldorado/Toronado/Riviera) suffered the most, hemorrhaging sales year after year from '86-90 when they finally grew in exterior dimensions.

Ford chose to stick it out and mopped the floor with Cadillac as traditional buyers loved the still full-sized Town Car and Continental offerings of the time.

Automakers benefit from consumer-driven obsolescence, not government meddling. 5MPH bumpers, roof strength standards, and now CAFE is the bane of the industry as a modern car is usually designed 3-5 years ahead of its introduction.

Also, on the retail side, service and maintenance are the main profit centers for a an automobile retailer - remember that in the US, manufacturers do not sell to end-users directly, rather to dealers who then resell to the ultimate buyer. Dealerships are loathe to abandon their largest source of consistent revenue along with their platform through which a customer is retained and eventually makes another purchase.

In any case, I see no more than 50-65% total penetration of the new light passenger car/truck market by full electric vehicles at least in our lifetimes, this number of course fluctuating regionally.

I'm not against EVs at all as a matter of consumer choice, just against the thought of forced purchasing along with the connectivity and surveillance that comes with a modern EV. They actually make a lot of sense for certain applications, like vehicles that operate consistent patterned routes with little deviation and lots of stop-and-go driving, like garbage collection, transit buses, and school buses in urban/suburban areas.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
^The auto manufacturers love this, planned obsolescence on steroids... Big oil also is in the loop, companies like BP are heavily invested into biofuel production.
Yes and no. Auto manufacturers don't know how to comply with the 49 mpg standard per mile by 2026 law.

I wouldn't say big oil is completely in on it.

Some more so than others. BP and Shell are the two that really push the ESG garbage...all companies have to be dictated by regulations to push this crapola... So it's less a matter of that and more a matter of them trying to take the dictates of the current regime and make them profitable for their shareholders...which is what publicly traded companies are required to do by law and fiduciary responsibility.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Yes and no. Auto manufacturers don't know how to comply with the 49 mpg standard per mile by 2026 law.

I wouldn't say big oil is completely in on it.

Some more so than others. BP and Shell are the two that really push the ESG garbage...all companies have to be dictated by regulations to push this crapola... So it's less a matter of that and more a matter of them trying to take the dictates of the current regime and make them profitable for their shareholders...which is what publicly traded companies are required to do by law and fiduciary responsibility.

That and....we both know the type of person who ends up in Fortune 500 Management. You because you work with them, me because a lot of them are my classmates.
They're not exactly bold and original thinkers. They're more the type to try to sound smart about whatever the latest trendy TED talk topic is. Not that they're dumb or anything(they're not) but their mindset is entirely concentrated around "networking" and they're very socially timid.
 
"Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to participate in this year’s Group of 20 Summit, the Kremlin said Monday, setting up a potentially dramatic first meeting between Putin and his critics since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February."

 

chance vought

Woodpecker
Protestant
I know that it's not of great character to whine but I am really not enjoying this crunch, and it's making me miserable.
I think you have an important post, because most of us feel this way. What may help is to take action. What will you do if energy becomes less reliable? If gas is $10/gallon? If violent break-ins become as common as Johannesburg?

It is said here all the time, build your capital…not only financial but people (networking), knowledge, and clear thinking, instead of reactive thinking. Start a garden if you can. Get busy fixing the problem, and your mind will dwell on the solution much more than the challenges ahead.

I would rather face a 10 year crisis and upheaval and be a part of the remnant that rebuilds, than have the rest of my life be part of a slow grinding steady decline. The frog is no longer in a slowly heating pot of water…he just got thrown in the microwave in 2020. You are not alone.
 

Caduceus

Ostrich
It would be funny if they go bankrupt. Finland really is showing the Russians who is boss!



A lot of the sanctions on Russia are turning out to be an own goal / are having a boomerang effect.
Oh, and a lot of things on the sanctions list are still being bought from Russia, except it's now done through intermediaries / middlemen / and third countries.
 
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