Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
The oil price cap is never going to work and is literally fairly tale level wishful thinking. I doubt Trump would have pushed that.

Oil price cap is communism, agreed, but, the returning of industry to countries that don't rip us off is Trump. That is a big deal.

Also, I doubt the oil price cap would apply to domestic oil industries, thus, it would really work as a tariff supporting domestic energy produces (which means tons of jobs for North America).
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Biden using the strategic reserve as a means to drop prices for the mid-terms is a stroke of genius - if you want to drain the USA of its strategic reserves at a time when you need it the most that is.

That should be front and centre news but it isn;', just like the situation Germany and the broader EU is facing within 3 months. Less than 90 days.
 

TCOCBR18

Sparrow
Orthodox
How much are they depleting the strategic oil reserve, do we know? And is that really the main reason gas prices are somewhat lower now?
Should we expect gas prices to go back up again soon?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
How much are they depleting the strategic oil reserve, do we know? And is that really the main reason gas prices are somewhat lower now?
Should we expect gas prices to go back up again soon?

Timing I can’t comment on but I would count on this being a counter-trend dip
 

Belgrano

Hummingbird
Gold Member

Launch of Nord Stream 2 cannot urgently fix shortage in EU anymore, Putin warns Scholz

Even the urgent launch of the Nord Stream pipeline cannot bring larger amounts of gas to the European market as half of the capacities of the pipeline have already been reoriented to the Russian market amid the delays of German regulators.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters in Tehran he had warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about that. "We have another ready route, Nord Stream 2. It can be launched. But it is not being launched. But there are problems here, too. We discussed this issue with the chancellor, and I raised this issue," Putin said.

"I said Gazprom has created capacities, has reserved them, and it needs to do something with it. They can't hang in the air forever. The answer was that there are other, more important issues now, it's difficult to tackle it now, and it's not the right timing. However, I had to warn him that we would take half of the volumes intended for Nord Stream 2 for internal consumption and processing then. I talked about that issue at Gazprom's request, and Gazprom has already done that," Putin said.

"Therefore, even if we launch Nord Stream 2 tomorrow, it won't be 55 million cubic meters a year, but exactly half of that. In addition, bearing in mind that only the second half is left of this year, it means only one-fourth. That's the situation with the supplies," he said.

"The European countries neglected the significance of traditional energy types and focused on non-traditional ones, such as solar and wind energy. The winter turned out to be long, there was no wind, and that was it. In addition, investment in traditional energy decreased due to the political decisions made earlier. Banks are not financing, insurance companies are not insuring, local authorities are not providing plots for new development, the pipeline and other transport is not developing. That is the result of politics during the previous decades. That's where everything started (and not due to some actions taken by Russia and Gazprom) and the prices started going up!" Putin said.

He also said the force majeure declared by Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine for one-third of the transit volumes under the contract with Gazprom is politically motivated. "Ukraine suddenly said it was closing one of the routes that run through its territory, allegedly because one of the gas pumping stations is not controlled by it, but is on the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic. However, it went under the control of the Luhansk People's Republic several months ago, but they have recently closed it without any grounds for doing so. Everything was functioning normally there, no one was interfering. They just closed it for political reasons," Putin said.

The president also said Poland's refusal of direct supplies from Russia and the reverse from Germany have aggravated the shortage on the European market.

"It is our Russian gas, which turned out to be cheaper to the Poles. They bought from us at a fairly high price, closer to the market one, and Germany is buying from us under long-term contracts, 3-4 times cheaper than the market price. It is profitable for German companies to sell to the Poles with a small bonus. It is profitable for the Poles to buy because it is cheaper than to buy from us directly. But the gas volume on the European market has decreased, and the total price on the market has gone up. Who won? All Europeans lost,"
he said.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
The fact that at least some gas is going through to Germany is a huge positive development. It avoids pushing Europe in a "Fight or Die" situation. This matches Putin's philosophy of never backing a rat into a corner. They will have a massive depression, but they will be able to survive and not freeze to death.

Putin continues to impress at avoiding total war situations and escalating the conflict more than necessary. Putin shows he has no problem against the people of Europe or America, he has problems with the (((leaders))). He's trying to get rid of them, and then reestablish mutually beneficial trade with Russia afterwards in these continents once the parasites have been ousted simply die of old age. After all, chews have the worst demographics of them all.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
The fact that at least some gas is going through to Germany is a huge positive development. It avoids pushing Europe in a "Fight or Die" situation. This matches Putin's philosophy of never backing a rat into a corner. They will have a massive depression, but they will be able to survive and not freeze to death.

Putin continues to impress at avoiding total war situations and escalating the conflict more than necessary. Putin shows he has no problem against the people of Europe or America, he has problems with the (((leaders))). He's trying to get rid of them, and then reestablish mutually beneficial trade with Russia afterwards in these continents once the parasites have been ousted simply die of old age. After all, chews have the worst demographics of them all.

Yep. He's playing this very smart, and exploiting the psychology of Europe's leadeship. His strategy is designed to create as much unrest and dissatisfaction as possible without cornering Europe entirely. He's also deliberately giving them an out that they're never going to accept (because of which group runs the foreign policy here).
 

IM3000

Pelican
I work in the energy sector in Central Europe. It was so obvious from the start that Russian natural gas cannot be replaced. Especially not on short notice and not even on long notice:
  1. LNG is 3-5 times more expensive.
  2. Who exactly was supposed to supply all that LNG?
  3. The existing terminal infrastructure is too small and there are no far reaching pipelines. Germany doesn't even have 1 LNG Terminal. Building one on land takes min. 5 years and is a highly complex endeavor. Prone to cost and time overrun. Also, commodity prices are super high, the supply chains are under heavy pressure and it's not even clear if there will be a need in 5 years for the LNG. Good luck financing such a project. Costs by the way are minimum 1 billion Euros.
  4. The necessary ships which were supposed to transport all that LNG do not exist. If they existed, the people who are needed to get the gas of the ships do not exist.
  5. LNG cannot be used in factories, furnaces, etc. that were designed for natural gas from Russia.
  6. In order to guarantee for a stable transmission grid in Europe, you need gas-powered plants since you can regulate them very quickly. A coal power plant needs a 1 day or so to be powered up and down, a gas power plant within minutes.
Etc. pp.

And the US-controlled German idiots thought that they could win this one. Laughable. On the economic front, Putin is playing his hand masterfully so far.
 
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Helmsman

Robin
Protestant
I work in the energy sector in Central Europe. It was so obvious from the start that Russian natural gas cannot be replaced. Especially not on short notice and not even on long notice:
  1. LNG is 3-5 times more expensive.
  2. Who exactly was supposed to supply all that LNG?
  3. The existing terminal infrastructure is too small and there are no far reaching pipelines. Germany doesn't even have 1 LNG Terminal. Building one on land takes min. 5 years and is a highly complex endeavor. Prone to cost and time overrun. Also, commodity prices are super high, the supply chains are under heavy pressure and it's not even clear if there will be a need in 5 years for the LNG. Good luck financing such a project. Costs by the way are minimum 1 billion Euros.
  4. The necessary ships which were supposed to transport all that LNG do not exist. If they existed, the people who are needed to get the gas of the ships do not exist.
  5. LNG cannot be used in factories, furnaces, etc. that were designed for natural gas from Russia.
  6. In order to guarantee for a stable transmission grid in Europe, you need gas-powered plants since you can regulate them very quickly. A coal power plant needs a 1 day or so to be powered up and down, a gas power plant within minutes.
Etc. pp.

And the US-controlled German idiots thought that they could win this one. Laughable. On the economic front, Putin is playing his hand masterfully so far.
In response to 2 and 5. The USA. Over the past 10 years, we have massively increased the number of LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast. Brownsville, Corpus Christi, FLNG expansion, and I think there is at least one new one in Louisiana too. Besides the 2-3 existing. Sets the US up perfectly for exporting surplus gas (under Trump) to the rest of the world. Most exports were originally to Asia but we're set up to make the EU an energy vassal if things go truly south. Once you warm LNG back up you're back to regular natural gas. Not sure if there's an energy content difference buts it's natural gas just the same (a mixtue of different C-H molecules). Should simply be plugging a terminal into the existing pipeline system.
 
In response to 2 and 5. The USA. Over the past 10 years, we have massively increased the number of LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast. Brownsville, Corpus Christi, FLNG expansion, and I think there is at least one new one in Louisiana too. Besides the 2-3 existing. Sets the US up perfectly for exporting surplus gas (under Trump) to the rest of the world. Most exports were originally to Asia but we're set up to make the EU an energy vassal if things go truly south. Once you warm LNG back up you're back to regular natural gas. Not sure if there's an energy content difference buts it's natural gas just the same (a mixtue of different C-H molecules). Should simply be plugging a terminal into the existing pipeline system.
The issue here is that Russian gas will always be much cheaper, more plentiful and more reliable (from a technical perspective) than shipping it. That cheaper primary energy is what maintains a higher quality of life and a more competitive economy. Shipping LNG, even under ideal conditions, would never come remotely close to getting Russian gas in modern pipelines like Nord Stream 2.

So yes, Trump was right about the "problem", but the solution would have been to get better energy, economic, and political relations with Russia to get even MORE of this gas, and slowly break off from NATO and the EU.

That of course would never happen since the German elites would rather keep their EU vassal states of the south than actually do something for their country and people.

That's why this whole thing is so utterly retarded and unnecessary.
 

IM3000

Pelican
In response to 2 and 5. The USA. Over the past 10 years, we have massively increased the number of LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast. Brownsville, Corpus Christi, FLNG expansion, and I think there is at least one new one in Louisiana too. Besides the 2-3 existing. Sets the US up perfectly for exporting surplus gas (under Trump) to the rest of the world. Most exports were originally to Asia but we're set up to make the EU an energy vassal if things go truly south. Once you warm LNG back up you're back to regular natural gas. Not sure if there's an energy content difference buts it's natural gas just the same (a mixtue of different C-H molecules). Should simply be plugging a terminal into the existing pipeline system.
2. This is true but still not enough for supplying Germany and let alone Europe. The demand is far to great. I shared the stats from the IEA on here before, natural gas is Germany's second most important primary energy source after oil. You can alleviate the pain with LNG from the US but you simply cannot replace it.

5. I meant that the technical apparatus would need to be changed on the receiving end and this is expensive. So you'd ask e.g. BASF to make a major investment under great uncertainties.
 

Cynllo

Kingfisher
Other Christian
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Let's check in on Mark Milley.

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