Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
I keep wondering when we'll see the actual effects of the "undermining" of the dollar. You'd think we'd have already seen it, and quite dramatically, but I'd have done better in the last few years keeping cash in USD in my mattress than investing the stock market, crypto, precious metals, or exchanging my dollars for any other currency I'm aware of.

USD will be the last currency to fail.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I keep wondering when we'll see the actual effects of the "undermining" of the dollar. You'd think we'd have already seen it, and quite dramatically, but I'd have done better in the last few years keeping cash in USD in my mattress than investing the stock market, crypto, precious metals, or exchanging my dollars for any other currency I'm aware of.

It’s already setting up. Keep in mind the Euro is going to crash first due to physical proximity to the conflict.
 

bucky

Hummingbird
Other Christian
It’s already setting up. Keep in mind the Euro is going to crash first due to physical proximity to the conflict.
You could be right. Actually, it logically seems like you must be right. But I don't know, after decades of hearing that the imminent collapse of the USD is right around the corner it's getting harder to believe. USD is a lot like silver in that respect. Been hearing about how the silver price is manipulated and will go to the moon any day now for literally over 30 years at this point. It's sitting at just under 20 USD an ounce this morning, which is totally unremarkable and a pretty typical price for most of the time I've paid attention to precious metals over the previous decades.

Don't get me started on BTC, which supposedly should be over 100k right now, at least.

At this point it feels like USD is the Rocky Balboa of currencies, always finding some improbable way to come out on top.
 
You could be right. Actually, it logically seems like you must be right. But I don't know, after decades of hearing that the imminent collapse of the USD is right around the corner it's getting harder to believe. USD is a lot like silver in that respect. Been hearing about how the silver price is manipulated and will go to the moon any day now for literally over 30 years at this point. It's sitting at just under 20 USD an ounce this morning, which is totally unremarkable and a pretty typical price for most of the time I've paid attention to precious metals over the previous decades.

Don't get me started on BTC, which supposedly should be over 100k right now, at least.

At this point it feels like USD is the Rocky Balboa of currencies, always finding some improbable way to come out on top.
You raise good points (except for bitcoin!!), in so much is that some crazy old man in California screaming about an impending earthquake can always just delay and delay his prediction.

But... is the dollar already collapsing?

Desirable real estate, healthcare, tech stonks (still), higher education (accreditation and social stratification) are all hyper inflated.

Anything not subject to deflation through technology, like TVs and consoooooomer products, has become massively inflated. Anything that holds value and not subject to manipulation (like silver is), has gone parabolic*.

Also think of it this way - Russia would have never made this move if the dollar had a bright and enduring future.

This currency collapse is more like a slow but turbulent glide and we are well on the way. Gonna be some big ups but the trend is unmistakable. You can point to every social, cultural, financial, spiritual, military, demographic, aspect of America and see horrible decline.

What makes the dollar exempt from these?

*I humbly recommend patience on bitcoin. People thought it was going to 100k the last bullrun as well. Consider the 4 and 10 year trend, quite different from silver. And I assure you, if bitcoin fails as the future of money in about 10 years, we are all more or less screwed anyway.
 

Samseau

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
And I assure you, if bitcoin fails as the future of money in about 10 years, we are all more or less screwed anyway.

This is a great argument, but Bitcoin is too easily used to enslave people. There needs to be another crypto that is accessible and safe from control, which I think is Monero so far. But yes, if cyrpto fails then we are indeed going back to the gold standard and it would not only instantly destroy international commerce, but also severely cripple even national commerce. Moving gold across the nation is extremely unpractical. Gold is still king for large sums of money but on a day to day basis there has to be easy to use, fungible, and anonymous money (digital cash).

Otherwise 2084 is going to be the mark of the beast.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
Re: Algeria joining the growing list of countries interested in BRICS.

When Russia asked to join NATO, the US (President Clinton) laughed in its face.
The US told American citizens if you don't like the censorship of our tech companies "Go build your own twitter"
And then every alternative to twitter was banned, financially blocked or subverted.

US told Russia to "build your own NATO" and the answer "Your terms are acceptable"

(There may be a meme for this but they don't let you search for wrongthink anymore)
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Recently Jeremy Corbyn came out and said we should be making peace and not filling Ukraine with weapons which are going god knows where - even the US and UK governments admit in quiet tones they dont know where the weapons are going.

The MSM came out against him and the comments are calling him out as a commie. Whilst his politics are questionable and not mainstream he is right on flooding a corrupt country with arms and money that are going to be used by people who wouldn't mind killing innocents in other countries.


How does this fit in terms of economics? The majority of people are still ignorant to the lies given to them and served as truth so what hope is there of these lemmings figuring out the true economic problems we face?

Russia refuses the Siemens turbine. Playing politics and later this year they are going to institute a cap on Russian oil on top of removing the ability to insure ships carrying Russian oil. Russia has stated it would stop sending oil to those countries who agree to it, even if their costs/ per barrel is met.

These politicians of ours are the worst bunch we have ever had. It isn't by accident when all of this is going to the WEF's plan.
 


Russia, Turkey agreed on partial payment for gas supplies in rubles
SOCHI, August 5. /TASS/.
"Presidents of Russia and Turkey Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed gas deliveries to Turkey and agreed upon its partial payment in rubles, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters after talks between two leaders.
"There was an important component; deliveries of gas to the Republic of Turkey were discussed, which is supplied in a fairly huge volume - 26 bln cubic meters per year. The Presidents agreed during talks that we will start partial gas deliveries and payment in rubles," Novak said.
Russia and Turkey are talking about a gradual transition to payments in national currencies, the Deputy Prime Minister said. "Supplies will be partly paid in Russian rubles then at the first stage. This is indeed the new stage, new opportunities, including for development of our monetary and financial relations," Novak added.
Energy is the key sphere of Russian-Turkish relations discussed in high detail by leaders during talks, the official noted. In particular, construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant was the case in point, Novak said. The leaders agreed upon the year of 2023 as the time to launch this project, he added."
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
In my very small business, we have long wait times for manufactured goods. Small engines, machined tools, hydraulic pumps (likely made/assembled overseas), of course even pickup trucks. All are on back order, some well into 2023. Raw suppliers that run plants are having trouble. Their stuff breaks and they are short on good men and equipment. I'm referencing competent, well-led, solid vendors with 30 years of experience. A Peterbilt rep told us last week that if we need a new truck, they are on a one year lead time. Failure to order now will lead to scarcity for at least a year. Maybe it is BS. This is Peterbilt - one of the most trusted and long-lasting brands in trucking.

I don't know that this is Russia/Ukraine-specific, or CV-driven, or now China-driven, but the shortages are real and imminent.
 

RedLagoon

Kingfisher
Orthodox Inquirer
In my very small business, we have long wait times for manufactured goods. Small engines, machined tools, hydraulic pumps (likely made/assembled overseas), of course even pickup trucks. All are on back order, some well into 2023. Raw suppliers that run plants are having trouble. Their stuff breaks and they are short on good men and equipment. I'm referencing competent, well-led, solid vendors with 30 years of experience. A Peterbilt rep told us last week that if we need a new truck, they are on a one year lead time. Failure to order now will lead to scarcity for at least a year. Maybe it is BS. This is Peterbilt - one of the most trusted and long-lasting brands in trucking.

I don't know that this is Russia/Ukraine-specific, or CV-driven, or now China-driven, but the shortages are real and imminent.

There're people here who make a lot of money now from the cars they bought new three years ago. They sell them for more than a newly ordered car as the wait times are more than a year.

I have a feeling there's a Klaus or Bill somewhere throttling supplies to get us used to their glorious reset.
 
In my very small business, we have long wait times for manufactured goods. Small engines, machined tools, hydraulic pumps (likely made/assembled overseas), of course even pickup trucks. All are on back order, some well into 2023. Raw suppliers that run plants are having trouble. Their stuff breaks and they are short on good men and equipment. I'm referencing competent, well-led, solid vendors with 30 years of experience. A Peterbilt rep told us last week that if we need a new truck, they are on a one year lead time. Failure to order now will lead to scarcity for at least a year. Maybe it is BS. This is Peterbilt - one of the most trusted and long-lasting brands in trucking.

I don't know that this is Russia/Ukraine-specific, or CV-driven, or now China-driven, but the shortages are real and imminent.
Could be something like this:

The second largest aluminum mill in the United States has idled operations, laying off about 600 American workers, due to “untenable” electricity and energy prices.
In June, Century Aluminum Co. executives announced that they would idle the Hawesville, Kentucky aluminum mill for about 9 to 12 months as a result of skyrocketing prices to merely keep the plant’s lights on. Similarly, executives with two steel mills are suspending operations because they cannot afford the costs of energy to keep the plants open. This comes after executives warned federal regulators about debilitating energy prices months ago.
 
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