Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
Ha! Their poorly thought out conflict with Russia is keeping them from implementing their poorly though out denuclearization. They're so mixed up, they don't know if they're coming or going!
I've been hearing this narrative for years in Europe, of doubt, that it's clean, what to do, but the reality is that those in power are destroying nuclear production since 2005.

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Can find no numbers on the last 2 years, but I know in France & Germany nuclear production is down strong in the last 2 years (some plants closed)

European leaders are destroying society. I find it weird to say, but when you look at the numbers it is as if a ritualistic murder plan is going on.

We are all stuck in a big concentration camp, millions of aggressive freeloaders are shipped to the camp every year, while slowly they are turning down the energy and food deliveries, injecting the people in camp, forbidding them to leave their barracks, encouraging the freeloaders to commit crimes because racism, spreading porn and weed to lower productivity, encouraging girls to kill the babies in their bellies.

While telling us this is beauty, this is art. ($300 million)

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Come and watch the spectacle in real time! It's as if the leeches live on the sorrow, pain, hopelessness and death of the European people.

On the nuclear, in total 3 reactors are being built in Europe (more were closed in the last year and these are multi year projects) and only 7 are planned (none in Western Europe). Compare that to the 27 planned in Russia alone.

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While Russia is doubling their nuclear capacity.

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Bird

Pelican
Catholic
The Western sanctions against Russia are in fact the late fulfillment of the Morgenthau Plan.

One such reason that I’m very familiar with was an LNG plant that was supposed to be built in my home province Nova Scotia and would export the product to Germany. The project has been in the works for decades, deals were signed and the German government was all in, Canadian LNG would displace some of Russia’s market share. This would create jobs in rural Nova Scotia which are needed and help the Germans, a real win-win type of deal.
No Sir, I disagree, the other way would be a win-win.

As an American analyst once noted, NATO is to keep Russia out, Germany down and the US in.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-crisis-in-ukraine-is-not-about-ukraine-its-about-germany/

The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.
 
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911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Still a bit early, the economic damage will be more visible in about 3-6 months. A lot of energy-dependent production will have to be shut down, inflation is going to spike due to higher energy costs, lower middle class and working poor are going to struggle massively.

I think the EU will initially remediate this issue by printing more Euros, which will create more inflation problems. So the biggest and worst consequences will be felt in a year or two, once that aspect kicks in.
 

Zanardi

Kingfisher
Orthodox
A lot of energy-dependent production will have to be shut down, inflation is going to spike due to higher energy costs, lower middle class and working poor are going to struggle massively.

I think the EU will initially remediate this issue by printing more Euros, which will create more inflation problems. So the biggest and worst consequences will be felt in a year or two, once that aspect kicks in.

I don't know what to say... European banks are raising interest rates to curb inflation so it doesn't make sense to print money. They'd be shooting themselves in the foot.
 

paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
Can we get any in-field reports from western European brothers about this energy crisis? How is it hitting your way-of-life costs? We read about industry shutting down plants, etc., but are the governments doing anything to buffer cost to consumer?
Sure.
  • Supermarket price increases are about 20% on average compared to a year ago. Some products 2X things like cheese and sunflower oil have become far more expensive
  • Rents/Mortgages are mostly stable after strong increases with 3 years ago, Prices of houses increased about 50% in 3 years. This year they plateud for now
  • Gas prices are through the roof, many families around me go from 200 euro to 600 euro a month. Many families have long term contracts which saves them. Though we see some energy companies are about to go bankrupt.
  • Salaries have not been corrected, which mostly done end of year, but it won't compensate.
Yes heavy energy industry like aluminium & steel can not function properly, some state aid packages are coming for them. This will only drive more inflation. It's very concrete we are way poorer than before. I hear stories of people not being able to pay their bills, but we haven't seen large amounts of personal bankruptcies yet. We see though that more and more people go to foodbanks.

The news here is panicking of everything at once, refugees, Ukraine, inflation, farmers protests, Corona. We seem paralyzed, as if a train is coming and we have nowhere to run. We don't have competent leadership, so woke that it is impossible to get speak up and get to productive solutions, a have severely damaged economy, for 15 years production has been going down in Europe, all national autonomy and therefore also knowledge is gone, and i think many are tired after 2 year of lockdowns. A mixture of anger, complacency, "this is life" mentality.

Our euros lost 15% of value to the dollar in 1 year.

Maybe I'm too gloomy here (can have that tendency) but I have been checking to move for some time to another continent. It is everything at once.

What do you think of it?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Sure.
  • Supermarket price increases are about 20% on average compared to a year ago. Some products 2X things like cheese and sunflower oil have become far more expensive
  • Rents/Mortgages are mostly stable after strong increases with 3 years ago, Prices of houses increased about 50% in 3 years. This year they plateud for now
  • Gas prices are through the roof, many families around me go from 200 euro to 600 euro a month. Many families have long term contracts which saves them. Though we see some energy companies are about to go bankrupt.
  • Salaries have not been corrected, which mostly done end of year, but it won't compensate.
Yes heavy energy industry like aluminium & steel can not function properly, some state aid packages are coming for them. This will only drive more inflation. It's very concrete we are way poorer than before. I hear stories of people not being able to pay their bills, but we haven't seen large amounts of personal bankruptcies yet. We see though that more and more people go to foodbanks.

The news here is panicking of everything at once, refugees, Ukraine, inflation, farmers protests, Corona. We seem paralyzed, as if a train is coming and we have nowhere to run. We don't have competent leadership, so woke that it is impossible to get speak up and get to productive solutions, a have severely damaged economy, for 15 years production has been going down in Europe, all national autonomy and therefore also knowledge is gone, and i think many are tired after 2 year of lockdowns. A mixture of anger, complacency, "this is life" mentality.

Our euros lost 15% of value to the dollar in 1 year.

Maybe I'm too gloomy here (can have that tendency) but I have been checking to move for some time to another continent. It is everything at once.

What do you think of it?

I would move out of Europe if you can, but do so with an eye towards food security.
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox
Sure.
  • Supermarket price increases are about 20% on average compared to a year ago. Some products 2X things like cheese and sunflower oil have become far more expensive
  • Rents/Mortgages are mostly stable after strong increases with 3 years ago, Prices of houses increased about 50% in 3 years. This year they plateud for now
  • Gas prices are through the roof, many families around me go from 200 euro to 600 euro a month. Many families have long term contracts which saves them. Though we see some energy companies are about to go bankrupt.
  • Salaries have not been corrected, which mostly done end of year, but it won't compensate.
Yes heavy energy industry like aluminium & steel can not function properly, some state aid packages are coming for them. This will only drive more inflation. It's very concrete we are way poorer than before. I hear stories of people not being able to pay their bills, but we haven't seen large amounts of personal bankruptcies yet. We see though that more and more people go to foodbanks.

The news here is panicking of everything at once, refugees, Ukraine, inflation, farmers protests, Corona. We seem paralyzed, as if a train is coming and we have nowhere to run. We don't have competent leadership, so woke that it is impossible to get speak up and get to productive solutions, a have severely damaged economy, for 15 years production has been going down in Europe, all national autonomy and therefore also knowledge is gone, and i think many are tired after 2 year of lockdowns. A mixture of anger, complacency, "this is life" mentality.

Our euros lost 15% of value to the dollar in 1 year.

Maybe I'm too gloomy here (can have that tendency) but I have been checking to move for some time to another continent. It is everything at once.

What do you think of it?
US food prices are spiking and so are energy, though not as much as Europe. Like you, our dairy products are much higher and other products are more expensive, but not 2X.

Sounds gloomy to me, but US normie media is still publishing stories about Americans moving to Italy, Greece, Spain for better cost of living/lifestyle. I think these folks are in for a surprise this winter.

US still has a lot of affordable places. Many are in flyover, farm country. I wouldn't blame you for coming here, but expect the gloominess to be replaced by blissful ignorance (which may turn gloomy soon).
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
I would move out of Europe if you can, but do so with an eye towards food security.

I don't think food security is going to be an issue, provided you have an income. Overall income security is the problem, you're going to have some middle class families and retirees sinking into poverty. You shouldn't worry or thinking of moving out solely because of the impending economic crisis, unless your work situation is potentially precarious.

People are just going to have to cut back on eating out or buying high end food products, but there won't be a run on flour, oil and other staples, only sporadic shortages. Most European countries are self-sufficient, at least in broad categories of food. Only the UK and perhaps Germany aren't, but they get their food from NZ, Oz, Canada, Denmark, Holland etc.

In the longer term, economic and monetary instability might become an issue, if for instance European banks freeze customers savings accounts, as was the case in Cyprus a few years ago...
 

paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
Yeah, I re-read that now. That's weird. The Fed raises rates since beginning of the year. :hmm:
The Southern European countries are so indebted, that if it would go just a bit highern 0.5% they would crash and be bankrupt.
This takes other economies in a hostage situation.

Greece is up there with lebanon, eritrea and venezuela.

This also shows the instability of Europe. I'm curious if it will survive. The differences are immense.
Morality, race, religion, temperament. It makes Europe beautiful as it is extremely diverse.
But also hard to put in a union.
General_government_debt,_2020_and_2021_(¹)_(General_government_consolidated_gross_debt,_%_of_G...png
NameNational Debt to GDP RatioPopulation
Japan236.14%123,951,692
Venezuela232.79%28,301,696
Sudan200.35%
Eritrea187.09%3,684,032
Greece185.08%10,384,971
Lebanon171.11%5,489,739
Italy134.14%59,037,474
Singapore128.20%5,975,689
Cape Verde124.92%593,149
Barbados123.22%281,635
 
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Thomas More

Crow
Protestant
The Southern European countries are so indebted, that if it would go just a bit highern 0.5% they would crash and be bankrupt.
This takes other economies in a hostage situation.

Greece is up there with lebanon, eritrea and venezuela.

This also shows the instability of Europe. I'm curious if it will survive. The differences are immense.
Morality, race, religion, temperament. It makes Europe beautiful as it is extremely diverse.
But also hard to put in a union.
View attachment 47262
NameNational Debt to GDP RatioPopulation
Japan236.14%123,951,692
Venezuela232.79%28,301,696
Sudan200.35%
Eritrea187.09%3,684,032
Greece185.08%10,384,971
Lebanon171.11%5,489,739
Italy134.14%59,037,474
Singapore128.20%5,975,689
Cape Verde124.92%593,149
Barbados123.22%281,635
For comparison, this chart shows Russia at only 13.75% national debt to GDP, one of the lowest in the world.


The US is currently at 108.8%, and it looks like that will be increasing by about 10% per year at the current rate!
 
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