Economic effects of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Algeria is buying Russian Sukhois and other products, has no debt, and is joining the BRICS, they are definitely a target. They can destabilize that country by agitating the Berber minority. Algerians are essentially from the same Berber racial stock, but remote tribes have held on to their Berber identity and language.

That identity has been promoted by the US and France, similar to the Kurds in the middle east, in a typical divide and conquer colonial move. But the Berbers are still a relatively small minority, about 8 million, so the only way this potential color revolution can gain momentum is if there are huge economic problems in the country and lots of dissatisfied youth all over the country, and like with Iran, an expat population that agitates against the Algerian govt.
It certainly can happen, but unlike with Libya there's a lot more in Algeria's favor:

1. They have the second largest military in Africa, only behind that of Egypt's. 2. There won't be nearly the same kind of support /acquiescence to another major conflict in Algeria. That would absolutely roil the natural gas market and Italy and Spain are not going to play that since they get a lot of gas from Algeria. Also EU governments already have refugee pushback and are on the brink of collapse. Aside from US neocons nobody wants Aleria destabilized except possibly Morocco.
 
It certainly can happen, but unlike with Libya there's a lot more in Algeria's favor:

1. They have the second largest military in Africa, only behind that of Egypt's. 2. There won't be nearly the same kind of support /acquiescence to another major conflict in Algeria. That would absolutely roil the natural gas market and Italy and Spain are not going to play that since they get a lot of gas from Algeria. Also EU governments already have refugee pushback and are on the brink of collapse. Aside from US neocons nobody wants Aleria destabilized except possibly Morocco.
Algeria is in a bit of a different situation than some other countries. Algeria has a reputation of being totalitarian and is not seen as a tourist destination like Tunisia, Morocco or Egypt.

Modern Algeria exists after a brutal war of independence from France. Since then it was ruled by the National Liberation Front (FLN). In 1991, the Islamist Salvation Front won elections. The establishment responded with a military coup and cancelled the election. An extremely brutal civil war followed. The FLN eventually won after suppressing the FIS and various other Islamist groups. (Now, I'm not saying that the FIS insurgency was CIA inspired, but...)

As a result the Algerian establishment have zero tolerance of any Islamist nonsense and any trouble is put down with extreme prejudice.

So, at the moment I don't see any insurgency, color revolution, etc gaining hold in Algeria as the Algerian establishment would rather be with Russia/China/Iran than GAE.
 

Yeagerist

Kingfisher
Orthodox Catechumen
Algeria is in a bit of a different situation than some other countries. Algeria has a reputation of being totalitarian and is not seen as a tourist destination like Tunisia, Morocco or Egypt.

Modern Algeria exists after a brutal war of independence from France. Since then it was ruled by the National Liberation Front (FLN). In 1991, the Islamist Salvation Front won elections. The establishment responded with a military coup and cancelled the election. An extremely brutal civil war followed. The FLN eventually won after suppressing the FIS and various other Islamist groups. (Now, I'm not saying that the FIS insurgency was CIA inspired, but...)

As a result the Algerian establishment have zero tolerance of any Islamist nonsense and any trouble is put down with extreme prejudice.

So, at the moment I don't see any insurgency, color revolution, etc gaining hold in Algeria as the Algerian establishment would rather be with Russia/China/Iran than GAE.
The Russian-Chinese-Persian bloc wins big time with having a strategic partner in Algeria, whose historical grievances towards France and sense of self-preservation ensure that it won't go the way of Libya post-Gaddafi. They would easily spot any schemes by the baguette-wielding frogs in Paris, especially as the latter have taken advantage of Libya's destabilization to assert their imperial rule over West Africa once again. Have you seen how warmly Macron was received in Algeria when he begged for oil?

Algeria is a respectable middle power (GDP of $168 billion and per capita of $3700 for a population of 45 million), and according to the link I've gotten, they "have the tenth largest proven natural gas reserves globally, is the world’s sixth-largest gas exporter, and has the world’s third-largest untapped shale gas resources." Obviously they aren't just gonna hand it out to Western Europe without exacting some sort of leverage. But more important is the strategic aspect of Algeria joining BRICS, which translates into an anti-globalist foothold in the western Mediterranean. I feel like this arrangement also benefits the Algerians in return, as they could more openly suppress any potential Western-incited "opposition" with the reduced risk of the wrath of NATO descending upon them. Who knows, they could even be bold enough to intervene in Libya and/or West Africa to contain the Islamists or kick out the French neo-colonialists.

 
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