Already happening. My elderly father is barely getting some of his meds, even with multiple insurance plans. His docs and pharmacy have told him that much of the base ingredients are from China and they are having a hard time getting inventory.The part I forgot to mention as well was adequately prepping elderly or sick relatives.
China and India control basic medication globally, even if the manufacturers are very often nominally Western. A neutral or allied India will still be unable to export most medications in the event of serious geopolitical conflict/kinetic war.
Not only do your vulnerable relatives need good access to food provisions and water, you must have the discussion with them about how they can safely hoard necessary medications in advance.
Medications obviously have recommended use by dates, yet the major issue for most people is not expired and therefore potentially ineffective medication but rather a tendency to rely on the system running smoothly all the time. People often only get prescriptions filled with one or two days’ worth (or less) of medication on hand.
Go read J. R. R. Tolkien’s biographies to get a grasp on how even well-educated and relatively well-connected families had to watch family members (in this case Tolkien’s own mother) die from diseases like diabetes because the medications did not exist at the time.
Serious conflict or supply chain interruptions will seal the same fate in many cases for your relatives with certain conditions.
Also, try ordering IVM from one of the India sources. They keep making it more difficult to pay the vendors. Last time I tried, I had to go to some shady third party pay processor and just didn't feel right giving up the digits.