Financial crash thread (2022-2024)

paternos

Kingfisher
Catholic
Something to remember and take into account. Ever since the financial crash of 2008 the government, then run by a radical progressive and socialist, barry obama, bailed out the financial industry. In some instances, openly nationalized part of the industry. And even when the more overtly "nationalized" aspects were returned to the stewardship of the banks, the imprint was permanent. The government basically took over finance since then. Among the new stipulations of this relationship was to do their bidding, this included their social agenda. So, as disgusting as it is to see an institution such as signature bank create obscene material, its essential to remember this isn't necessarily that institution speaking. Ramz Paul often describes the radical left as a parasite that takes the host over and wears it like a skin suit. When I see how these radicals operated at Evergreen State College (see "Hunted Individual") you get a perfect visual of how this process unfolds. Similar struggle sessions and hysteria no doubt occurred at signature and elsewhere. chief diversity officers ensure this process will happen. But, the force behind it are all the mandates for diversity, affirmative action etc.
I agree with your perspective. Since the 2008 financial crisis, banking has become highly regulated and lost its freedom, making it more like a government function. My experience in the industry confirms that it has changed drastically compared to 20 years ago. Banks once played an active role in investing, assessing entrepreneurs' plans, and granting loans. Today, they adhere to strict protocols and focus on government guarantees.

As banks lost all power, venture capitalists emerged of which many are our Jewish friends and took over the essential role of allocating capital to promising projects, almost without regulation. The past 20 years have been marked by malinvestment, largely due to governments overextending their influence in capital allocation.

The 2008 crisis was a power grab rather than just an issue with "bad banks." Banking has not recovered, although it wasn't perfect before the crisis either.

Now, we witness a system without significant opposition. When all banks adopt similar ideologies, such as waving rainbow flags, it becomes clear who holds power. It's not the bankers I know, who are more of the "boys will be boys" type.
 

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
Credit suisse has updated their flag

View attachment 56052
Speaking of Credit Suisse, meet the Head of Global Markets.

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Towgunner

Kingfisher
I agree with your perspective. Since the 2008 financial crisis, banking has become highly regulated and lost its freedom, making it more like a government function. My experience in the industry confirms that it has changed drastically compared to 20 years ago. Banks once played an active role in investing, assessing entrepreneurs' plans, and granting loans. Today, they adhere to strict protocols and focus on government guarantees.

As banks lost all power, venture capitalists emerged of which many are our Jewish friends and took over the essential role of allocating capital to promising projects, almost without regulation. The past 20 years have been marked by malinvestment, largely due to governments overextending their influence in capital allocation.

The 2008 crisis was a power grab rather than just an issue with "bad banks." Banking has not recovered, although it wasn't perfect before the crisis either.

Now, we witness a system without significant opposition. When all banks adopt similar ideologies, such as waving rainbow flags, it becomes clear who holds power. It's not the bankers I know, who are more of the "boys will be boys" type.

Yes, agree completely. But, that 20-year run of malinvestment must come due at some point. And it looks like that point might be now. Artificially low-interest rates are a treat too compelling to deny, but, its still a market perversion. And market perversions create problems, in this case, a multi-decade accumulation of misplaced capital. I guess we're about to see how that plays out.

I was in finance prior (and after) 2008. The rainbow flags are particularly grating and offensive. By this, I mean offensive beyond the typical ways "pride" is offensive. The typical persona occupying some sort of banking position lacks virtue and character. Wanton greed, extreme selfishness, and juvenile tendencies abound. They're terrible people. And they're made even more terrible when combined with some kind of twisted depraved sexual virtue signaling. A run-of-the-mill investment banker or trader has absolutely no business lecturing anyone on "morality", let alone a depraved satanic "morality". The overall ensemble leaves a bad taste in one's mouth and makes your skin crawl.
 

paternos

Kingfisher
Catholic
Yes, agree completely. But, that 20-year run of malinvestment must come due at some point. And it looks like that point might be now. Artificially low-interest rates are a treat too compelling to deny, but, its still a market perversion. And market perversions create problems, in this case, a multi-decade accumulation of misplaced capital. I guess we're about to see how that plays out.

I was in finance prior (and after) 2008. The rainbow flags are particularly grating and offensive. By this, I mean offensive beyond the typical ways "pride" is offensive. The typical persona occupying some sort of banking position lacks virtue and character. Wanton greed, extreme selfishness, and juvenile tendencies abound. They're terrible people. And they're made even more terrible when combined with some kind of twisted depraved sexual virtue signaling. A run-of-the-mill investment banker or trader has absolutely no business lecturing anyone on "morality", let alone a depraved satanic "morality". The overall ensemble leaves a bad taste in one's mouth and makes your skin crawl.
This:
a multi-decade accumulation of misplaced capital
That's what we see.

In my opinion it's all caused by excessive government manipulation of the money markets; More or less since the 1970s.
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In a free market interest rates would be dynamic. Depending on the person taking a loan, on the object, on the business on the duration. And over the years it would be more or less stable. Somewhere on average between 5% and 10% depending on the type of investments.

What we have seen in the last 10 years is bizarre, 0% interest with inflation can by no means allocate capital correctly. For 40 years people and businesses have been rewarded for taking on debt. How Trump got rich is by taking on debt to build a tower, and refinancing that debt later against lower interest. This is not business. This is not productivity. He got rich on the debt and the tower appreciated due to money printing and lower interest rates.

Logically a house should depreciate, when it gets older, it should be less valuable as stuff is broken, used, just like 2nd hand shoes.

Like you say the state of the economy is the result of a multi-decade accumulation of misplaced capital. And we see what it is, bad roads, no industry, multibillion non-profitable businesses, patent laws protecting elites. Investment should lead to production. A machine. A business. Work should lead to production.

Multidecade malinvestment leads to this:


I have been in finance as well and I don't share the observation of evil. At most I see very juvenile behavior, like myself going for 15 years after sex, status and money, they are a misguided kind. What I liked is that I didn't see a lot of pretense, most guys understood they were there for their own desires.

I have problems with the governments who broke down the system of capital allocation. With their manipulation of interest rates to serve political goals while blaming the bankers and taking the moral high ground. I have seen both sides closely. Politicians and bureaucrats have 0 reflection are self aggrandized moralists. All the guys I know in banking don't care 1 bit about about rainbow flags, and they don't lecture anyone, they put them on because the master says so.

Too passionate about it, because I'm so done with politicians blaming all sorts of groups all the time.
 

Blade Runner

Crow
Orthodox
I think the weirdest thing is that in the continued face of more and more aberrant events (covid, juicing the pandemic, closing the middle class and businesses down, now raising to break, and bailing out banks finally affected), people show how careless they are of the status quo, and how establishment oriented their day to day has become. The lie must persist or else we all get nothing, so don't worry.

As they say, it'll work until it doesn't. That time is this and next year, I'm sure of it. We're here boys.
 

Blade Runner

Crow
Orthodox
But, that 20-year run of malinvestment must come due at some point.

I have been in finance as well and I don't share the observation of evil

Isn't it just the spirit of the age? I see people at other sites that think the degradation, as you all seem to indicate (can you explain?) will occur and smart cities will be spared city centers where a small number of people horde things while the others outside largely pass on, or away. It is interesting, as I don't see them anywhere near ready yet, but in 4-7 years? It's possible.

Weird times.
 

paternos

Kingfisher
Catholic
Isn't it just the spirit of the age? I see people at other sites that think the degradation, as you all seem to indicate (can you explain?) will occur and smart cities will be spared city centers where a small number of people horde things while the others outside largely pass on, or away. It is interesting, as I don't see them anywhere near ready yet, but in 4-7 years? It's possible.

Weird times.
Yes I think it's the spirit of the age.

The division of city Vs country side.

The tax on the country side has grown steadily for the Europeans:
- windmills everywhere
- destruction of industry
- migrant centers for young men who rape and rob
- the forcing of city center "morality" on country side schools
- environmental regulations which make it hard to start and run any "industrial" business like transport as it is not clean

Where city centers now house a very large well paid bureaucracy in secluded neighbourhoods.

I think a sentence like this "just leave us alone" describes the sentiment.

Stop taxing us, stop destroying expropriating our farmers, stop putting migrant rapists here, stop killing our industry, stop your perversion in our schools, stop building windmills, stop your nonsensical environmental regulations. Get of our back.

Stay in your city centers and do your liberal stuff. I don't care.
 

Blade Runner

Crow
Orthodox
Stay in your city centers and do your liberal stuff. I don't care.
The issue is where is the resistance or change going to come from. If it doesn't come from a Pinochet type, we're done. They control the money and most of the means of production, in one way or another. They never leave us alone. And if the money runs out, we lose too, in many ways. Of course, in this world, but not the next.

Still, I see a lot of people slowly dying and the establishment boomers and older keeping up hope, which also holds us all back.
 

cowboy

Sparrow
The issue is where is the resistance or change going to come from. If it doesn't come from a Pinochet type, we're done. They control the money and most of the means of production, in one way or another. They never leave us alone. And if the money runs out, we lose too, in many ways. Of course, in this world, but not the next.

Still, I see a lot of people slowly dying and the establishment boomers and older keeping up hope, which also holds us all back.

The above post is correct regarding the “boomers keeping up hope.” Many of the older boomer types are baffled by the angry people in their 30’s, 40’s and early 50’s. The boomers continue to act as if all is well. They were grandfathered into decent pensions and still have social security. They are not trying to start businesses, make/ save money, or develop careers. As a result, they don’t care. They will all be gone in 15 yrs. regardless. They live off the corpse of the old world. Boomers won’t admit the game has changed.
 

Blade Runner

Crow
Orthodox
They are not trying to start businesses, make/ save money, or develop careers. As a result, they don’t care. They will all be gone in 15 yrs. regardless. They live off the corpse of the old world. Boomers won’t admit the game has changed.
The percentage of boomers and older that understand this is exactly the same number of people who aren't normies in the world, by the way. Or even worse, given the age and materialism effect. If we are lucky it's 3% of them that will be remotely honest. I gave up on arguing with them about 4 years ago; leading up to covid I probably had my last hurrah on my angst and their stupidity or willingness to be "positive" = deceived. One of the other things that is related (since most boomers are married) is that among married people, guys have had to give up and generally speaking, they don't like talking about or admitting how bad their lives are (if they even know how bad, lol) as "husbands." There's no solution so they'd just rather not talk about it. Their life is set, it's not changing, so all they concern themselves as a result is the material well being of their situation and some sick version of happy wife happy life nonsense. Even if they don't dislike their wives all that much, you can tell this is what's going on.
 

eradicator

Crow
Agnostic
Gold Member
The percentage of boomers and older that understand this is exactly the same number of people who aren't normies in the world, by the way. Or even worse, given the age and materialism effect. If we are lucky it's 3% of them that will be remotely honest. I gave up on arguing with them about 4 years ago; leading up to covid I probably had my last hurrah on my angst and their stupidity or willingness to be "positive" = deceived. One of the other things that is related (since most boomers are married) is that among married people, guys have had to give up and generally speaking, they don't like talking about or admitting how bad their lives are (if they even know how bad, lol) as "husbands." There's no solution so they'd just rather not talk about it. Their life is set, it's not changing, so all they concern themselves as a result is the material well being of their situation and some sick version of happy wife happy life nonsense. Even if they don't dislike their wives all that much, you can tell this is what's going on.

I still stay positive. Life’s more fun that way. Why get upset about all of the things out of your control? Yes we are looking at a recession/depression and don’t know how long it will last, this has all happened before. It will all happen again

There’s no need to be upset

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Cynllo

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer

Особено

Dad, it's going down in normie land. Don't worry son, we have Bitcoin.jpg

Jewish supremacy.



FED balance sheet has just grown by $300B, about $300B shy of it's all time high that they've just been trimming back on.


You'd have to think they are going for something towards $15 trillion now.

My suspicion for this recession is playing out. I thought they'd go for 7% rates and that as soon as things begin breaking they will crack up liquidity injections, the unFed would buy up distressed assets. I think those who think this will roll over terribly will be proved wrong. There will be more and more failures, but anything large will be papered over. I'm expecting a mild recession (on paper) + high rates + high inflation. The managed to chop off 20% or so of the economy in 2020 and run it on stimulus as if almost nothing had changed. This isn't going to be much different. They are still a long way from Japan in terms of financial debauchery.

I suspect stocks will generally trend down. The only thing that makes sense is the only asset class that is free, and is ~20% off cycle lows. Compare with gold and stocks, which are about 10% off cycle highs. Real estate seems one of the most vulnerable, since it's most distributed.
 
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Aldebaran

Sparrow
Protestant
So the US government is back to it's most cherished money spending activity, namely bailing out corrupt and incompetent bankers.

How is this going to pan out? I don't think that simultaneous money printing and interest raising has been tried before?

I mean, of course it's going to end in spectacular failure, but what will the mechanics be? Where is the system going to fail first?

 

Caduceus

Ostrich
The above post is correct regarding the “boomers keeping up hope.” Many of the older boomer types are baffled by the angry people in their 30’s, 40’s and early 50’s. The boomers continue to act as if all is well. They were grandfathered into decent pensions and still have social security. They are not trying to start businesses, make/ save money, or develop careers. As a result, they don’t care. They will all be gone in 15 yrs. regardless. They live off the corpse of the old world. Boomers won’t admit the game has changed.

Boomers never admit they made any mistake, and never say sorry.
Ever.

Also, in Boomer world, only things said or shown on TV are the truth....everything else is just opinions or lies.


.
 
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Cynllo

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
A paper outlines there are 186 banks in the US with similar issues to SVB -


It states that there is a $2 trillion black hole among certain banks.

10 percent of banks have larger unrecognized losses than those at SVB. Nor was SVB the worst capitalized bank, with 10 percent of banks having lower capitalization than SVB. On the other hand, SVB had a disproportional share of uninsured funding: only 1 percent of banks had higher uninsured leverage. Combined, losses and uninsured leverage provide incentives for an SVB uninsured depositor run. We compute similar incentives for the sample of all U.S. banks. Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk. If uninsured deposit withdrawals cause even small fire sales, substantially more banks are at risk. Overall, these calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values very significantly increased the fragility of the US banking system to uninsured depositor runs.

SB -



$2T was the sum popped into the bailout/QE fund.
 
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