Financial crash thread (2022-2024)

[paternos]

@Cynllo @chance vought

Men what a mess we are in. If you want some economic effects.

Check this site:

WTF Happened In 1971?

"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop." - F.A. Hayek 1984

wtfhappenedin1971.com

 

[Blade Runner]

We still have too many on the forum that subscribe to simple/single effects that explain what has happened over the last 60 years. The truth is, as I've stated many times, it's more about ecology and human intervention/economy than anything else that explains it all. We've had a lot of benefits in life over the last 60, but there are some major tradeoffs. The food thing is the least of our worries, since you can still control what you put in your mouth, by and large. Are simple sugars and carbs a temptation, though? Yes. Is fast food? Yes. I eat those occasionally, but I'm in very good shape and I'm "old" by this silly societies' standards.

Numbers, pure explosion of population and medical innovation explain most of what is going on, including the lamentations of X, Y or Z. Now, we are seeing a reversal of things, which is also par for the course historically. It's just that tech really confuses things, people are obviously quite manipulated by the fake monetary system and tech that have gone hand in hand, and the speedy periods of history are coming for a lot of countries in the next 10 years.

Of all the changes, the biggest change by far, especially from historical norms (since a type of technology was always imminent from one century to the next) is the importance or role of women. But if you read Sir John Glubb, you'll see that even that has happened before here and there, just not to this extent ... and it always happens when empires are in decline, late stage.

 

[paternos]

We still have too many on the forum that subscribe to simple/single effects that explain what has happened over the last 60 years. The truth is, as I've stated many times, it's more about ecology and human intervention/economy than anything else that explains it all. We've had a lot of benefits in life over the last 60, but there are some major tradeoffs. The food thing is the least of our worries, since you can still control what you put in your mouth, by and large. Are simple sugars and carbs a temptation, though? Yes. Is fast food? Yes. I eat those occasionally, but I'm in very good shape and I'm "old" by this silly societies' standards.

Numbers, pure explosion of population and medical innovation explain most of what is going on, including the lamentations of X, Y or Z. Now, we are seeing a reversal of things, which is also par for the course historically. It's just that tech really confuses things, people are obviously quite manipulated by the fake monetary system and tech that have gone hand in hand, and the speedy periods of history are coming for a lot of countries in the next 10 years.

Of all the changes, the biggest change by far, especially from historical norms (since a type of technology was always imminent from one century to the next) is the importance or role of women. But if you read Sir John Glubb, you'll see that even that has happened before here and there, just not to this extent ... and it always happens when empires are in decline, late stage.

The big movers:
- Antibiotics (the #1 life extender)
- Productivity / worker 10 folding with technology (farming, industry, energy)
- Globalisation (containerships with 24.000 containers and huge LNG / Oil ships)
- Digitisation and a global internet (which makes it possible to organize and track and predict the move of all these ships and trucks)

With these huge increases in productivity and accessibility, a whole new and huge class emerged bureaucats; politics, healthcare, state, banks, insurance, schools, social justice, monetary banks, which takes most of the wealth, but is now sawing off the legs of productivity and globalisation.

 

[eradicator]

Feinstein Suffered More Complications From Illness Than Were Publicly Disclosed

Senator Dianne Feinstein, 89, whose recent bout with shingles included contracting encephalitis, is frailer than ever. But she remains unwilling to entertain discussions about leaving the Senate.

www.nytimes.com

Here is the latest photo of Diane Feinstein



Edit, even the Jew york times is calling for Diane to resign

 

[holgerdanske]

We still have too many on the forum that subscribe to simple/single effects that explain what has happened over the last 60 years. The truth is, as I've stated many times, it's more about ecology and human intervention/economy than anything else that explains it all. We've had a lot of benefits in life over the last 60, but there are some major tradeoffs. The food thing is the least of our worries, since you can still control what you put in your mouth, by and large. Are simple sugars and carbs a temptation, though? Yes. Is fast food? Yes. I eat those occasionally, but I'm in very good shape and I'm "old" by this silly societies' standards.

Numbers, pure explosion of population and medical innovation explain most of what is going on, including the lamentations of X, Y or Z. Now, we are seeing a reversal of things, which is also par for the course historically. It's just that tech really confuses things, people are obviously quite manipulated by the fake monetary system and tech that have gone hand in hand, and the speedy periods of history are coming for a lot of countries in the next 10 years.

Of all the changes, the biggest change by far, especially from historical norms (since a type of technology was always imminent from one century to the next) is the importance or role of women. But if you read Sir John Glubb, you'll see that even that has happened before here and there, just not to this extent ... and it always happens when empires are in decline, late stage.

The collective feminization, and by extension, infantalization of society is what has inflicted the most damage on Western nations. That and the inexorable influx of migrants (legal and illegal) which has led to a dilution of culture and moral values. Last but not least the explosion in secularism (i.e. satanism - basically worship of the self) was the death knell of what once were enlightened and self sufficient societies. I don't think we can come back from this. The system has to break under its own weight so that a new generation of strong man is given a clear mandate to return things to its long term mean.

 

[paternos]

The collective feminization, and by extension, infantalization of society is what has inflicted the most damage on Western nations. That and the inexorable influx of migrants (legal and illegal) which has led to a dilution of culture and moral values. Last but not least the explosion in secularism (i.e. satanism - basically worship of the self) was the death knell of what once were enlightened and self sufficient societies. I don't think we can come back from this. The system has to break under its own weight so that a new generation of strong man is given a clear mandate to return things to its long term mean.

Reading you, it makes me think, this worldly WE under a set of rulers, is probably just over for myself, this whole concept of nationality and democratic representation is a farce. The leadership is satanic, left, right doesn't matter, the tax is used for satanic purposes. They do what they want and I think I have no influence on that. I really don't care about my worldly nation anymore, or my worldly city, or my company, or my job, or my possesions I feel no pride in that.

This is different from the spiritual WE, because I feel connected to many people, family, parish, on a soul level. As Jesus says love thy Lord love thy Neighbor.

We need to live in the kingdom of God, in that spiritual connection, I need to turn away from anything worldly, where we are defined not by nation, study, job, money, power, city, size of house and car, the next crisis, the propaganda. And turn to how God shaped us. Leave the bright lights and promises of the world behind as much as we can.

I getting more and more tired of politicians, movies, promises, money, career, it feels nothing can be achieved there which is meaningful on a soul level.

The world will collapse, the kingdom of God will live forever. It's like an investment strategy, where do we put our energy.

 

[chance vought]

Based on what has happened so far, here is my base case for the 23-24 crash. 50% probability.
- 2023 Q3-Q4 there is trouble in credit markets that requires more central bank theft measures…maybe investment grade bond CDS go from 90 to 300 bps.

2024 Fed balance sheet goes to 15 trillion.
This seems to be the majority viewpoint so maybe I’m wrong.

I see a few possibilities for the knock on effects in 2026-27.
1) 10% inflation for the next 15 years (higher everywhere non-USA). This seems politically difficult.
2) 100% inflation for 2 years. Hard to distract normies from this, unless you have a real threat, like a hot war on US soil or a zombie outbreak.
3) WW3, and for the sake of discussion, non-nuke.

WW2 was in large part used to reset the ledger of unpayable debts accrued in WW1. In the end, only 1 nation remained an empire and benefitted massively. Even the other allies, supposedly victorious, lost their empires and the majority of their remaining wealth.

The US was completely untouched, profited massively from the war, and made the rules in the postwar.

WW3 would have to affect the US mainland for any other Nation to benefit from war…if they leave the US alone to sell weapons and profit, then profit from the reconstruction of rest of the world…the same problem persists. And I don’t think another proxy war would be costly enough to dethrone the US hedgemony.

So, any thoughts on what this war looks like. Thinking as an adversarial nation, how do you apply a massive cost directly to the US?
- Do you have agents in place that implement some sort of active measures? Poisoning water systems or destroying regional electric grids?
- cyberattacks?
- some other attack that exploits our relatively free society?
- I don’t see kinetic war as possible on US soil, due to nukes, and air dominance.

 

[Thomas More]

Based on what has happened so far, here is my base case for the 23-24 crash. 50% probability.
- 2023 Q3-Q4 there is trouble in credit markets that requires more central bank theft measures…maybe investment grade bond CDS go from 90 to 300 bps.

2024 Fed balance sheet goes to 15 trillion.
This seems to be the majority viewpoint so maybe I’m wrong.

I see a few possibilities for the knock on effects in 2026-27.
1) 10% inflation for the next 15 years (higher everywhere non-USA). This seems politically difficult.
2) 100% inflation for 2 years. Hard to distract normies from this, unless you have a real threat, like a hot war on US soil or a zombie outbreak.
3) WW3, and for the sake of discussion, non-nuke.

WW2 was in large part used to reset the ledger of unpayable debts accrued in WW1. In the end, only 1 nation remained an empire and benefitted massively. Even the other allies, supposedly victorious, lost their empires and the majority of their remaining wealth.

The US was completely untouched, profited massively from the war, and made the rules in the postwar.

WW3 would have to affect the US mainland for any other Nation to benefit from war…if they leave the US alone to sell weapons and profit, then profit from the reconstruction of rest of the world…the same problem persists. And I don’t think another proxy war would be costly enough to dethrone the US hedgemony.

So, any thoughts on what this war looks like. Thinking as an adversarial nation, how do you apply a massive cost directly to the US?
- Do you have agents in place that implement some sort of active measures? Poisoning water systems or destroying regional electric grids?
- cyberattacks?
- some other attack that exploits our relatively free society?
- I don’t see kinetic war as possible on US soil, due to nukes, and air dominance.

Agree with almost all here. I would say the USSR survived as an empire after WW2, in addition to the US.