Fukushima

Hitman

Pigeon
I am no expert on nuclear reactors and I am also not not anti-nuclear but I always find it odd how supporters of nuclear power point to the lack of immediate obvious deaths. In an instance like this wouldn't you think the outcome will be slow and insidious and largely undramatic? like the seeping of radioactive waste into the ocean? Experts refer to a lack of clear association and thus dismiss any affects. This is a disaster but they will just deny or dismiss any association.

Some still say that Chernobyl took only 25 lives, when in fact tens of thousands have been diagnosed with cancer, birth defects, immune disorders, etc.

So how so you measure the toll purely in terms of immediate deaths? What about the relocation of 100,000's of people, long-term health issues and the impact on the flora/fauna across the areas affected? Restrictions on Welsh farmers have only just been lifted following Chernobyl.

From what I have read, the plutonium in reactor three has a half-life of 80 million years, perhaps explaining why the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier 80 nautical miles away set off red alert radiation alarms for helicopters, crew, air and water systems and went through an 18-month decontamination at Bremerton and Hanford.

Removing the spent fuel rod assemblies is obviously a big problem but it seems to me the even bigger and more IRREVERSIBLE PROBLEM is the 3 molten reactor cores, which, even if they can be located, are extremely radioactive and are therefore not approachable (including by robots), and therefore cannot be moved and/or neutralized with any known technology.

So are these cores emitting massive radiation into the groundwater and aquifers under Fukushima? - which will empty into the Pacific Ocean?

A lot of questions not many answers. I also find it odd that anybody with a concern for this situation is some anti-nuclear tree hugging hippy. How about just concerned humans on our only planet. I understand that this will be used by sides to push an agenda but what we need now is factual information not spin.

Again no nuclear physicist. But them again neither are a lot of the people saying 'everything is fine'. The fact that there is potential for something really big to happen is enough to warrant more discussion on the topic without name calling and labeling. This would be a good time to ramp up the research into nuclear fusion.
 

The Lizard of Oz

Crow
Gold Member
Fukushima is completely different from Chernobyl. Chernobyl had a badly designed reactor which was unable to contain the meltdown, and a substantial amount of radiation was released as a result. It's hard to estimate the total resulting casualties but the best estimates are that some thousands of people died as a more or less direct consequence of the radiation and the health of tens of thousands was probably affected. The USSR authorities did very little to evacuate the population and were mainly concerned with concealing evidence.

The total radiation released from Fukushima was an order of magnitude less because of its design and its effects will be further orders of magnitude less because of timely evacuation. Trace excess radiation in Japan outside the immediate vicinity is trivial at this point, and the idea that it could be detectable elsewhere is outright crazy. The Pacific ocean is very big and seepage into it is inconsequential.

By the way, more than 18,000 people died in Japan during the earthquake and tsunami that caused the Fukushima accident. That was the real disaster.
 

AntiTrace

Ostrich
thegmanifesto said:
AntiTrace said:
Buy the dips and sell the spikes.

Sounds like a plan.

I wonder why everyone doesn't do it?

Yeah I've been thinking about dropping a data sheet on it, but its such a groundbreaking new strategy that I'm afraid of the competition it will cause.

Disaster plays are a whole different story that is actually worthy of a discussion. I missed the train on the whole 08 crash because I wasn't financially in a position to capitalize on the hysteria of the market. I had extremely lucky timing on BP and got a good 50ish% gain within 6 months. TEPCO (TKECF) was about 300% gain within a few weeks multiple times.

TEKCF share price is 25% of what it was pre disaster. It's still get plenty of room for upward movement. Their are two possible scenarios:

1. Company is dissolved or nationalized.

2. Company restarts reactors and returns to profitability

Scenario 1 was a big scare in the first 12-18 months post disaster. Everything thought it was going to be nationalized. That was the hysteria talking. If they were nationalized that would have mean the government would have taken on their debt, assumed responsibility for the cleanup (which means assumed responsibility for all accidents and biproducts of the cleanup), and entered in a competing market with private firms. I'm no genius, but I was pretty confident that wasn't going to happen.

Scenario 2 is already half completed. They have reported profits for the last two quarters. TEPCO supplises power to about 25% of the population of Japan. Reactor restarts are inevitable.

I expect it to double within a couple years. It ran up to $8 (highest since the disaster I think) a share on rumors of a restart earlier this year, so it's going to be interesting once the reactors do come back online.

Whenever I see another one of these "As the world burns" episodes on youtube, I start looking for ways to capitalize on it. Shit I should start a website selling radiation suits and market it on the west coast....
 

kosko

Peacock
Gold Member
The Lizard of Oz said:
Fukushima is completely different from Chernobyl. Chernobyl had a badly designed reactor which was unable to contain the meltdown, and a substantial amount of radiation was released as a result. It's hard to estimate the total resulting casualties but the best estimates are that some thousands of people died as a more or less direct consequence of the radiation and the health of tens of thousands was probably affected. The USSR authorities did very little to evacuate the population and were mainly concerned with concealing evidence.

The total radiation released from Fukushima was an order of magnitude less because of its design and its effects will be further orders of magnitude less because of timely evacuation. Trace excess radiation in Japan outside the immediate vicinity is trivial at this point, and the idea that it could be detectable elsewhere is outright crazy. The Pacific ocean is very big and seepage into it is inconsequential.

By the way, more than 18,000 people died in Japan during the earthquake and tsunami that caused the Fukushima accident. That was the real disaster.

Why are you using the word "released"? Agian human hamster logic. Chernobyl had more of a sudden impact as radiation was spewing out more quickly. The PLANTS a Fukishima are more concentrated and more powerful then shitty chernobyl was. Chernobyl fucked over half of Europe and it was half the power if even that of ONE of Fukishimas plants. Yeah it was a badly built plant for its day but so is Fukishima, that crap would never be built today either.

800 tonnes+ of radioactive junk has been released into the ocean, and now it does not dissipate like you suggested. Studies are showing it is keeping its intensity as its circulating around for the most part as is simply just accumulating. Again more human hamster logic into thinking water will douce and dilute the shit like children's paint or something.

People need to stop being delusional. Humans have no idea wtf is going down. We have cracked a egg we can't cook. It's a guess to how bad it is, but it is bad. Smart people dismissed the shit at first as they drank their toxic diet cokes. My prof sipping back his aspertame coke told me point blank I was an idiot for suggesting the stuff I read. Fuck him. Because now he's leading talks on it at my school. Now It's trendy to point out the obvious and people are piling on. Fuking pathetic.

Chernobyl only came to light after the fact. Nobody really knew how fucked it was during. All we knew it was a bad situation of the worst scenario mapped out. Scientists were crying because they had no answers to the problem. Only by the grace of god and for unknown reasons did the meltdown stop. studies today show how it completely devastated the local population in regards to health.

Fukishima will bankrupt Japan. The trillions needed to even mitigate the damage will be to much. A global response is needed but governments don't care, nor does the UN. It's a bill to come later, none give two fucks.
 

RexImperator

Crow
Gold Member
I had to take some radiation safety classes in the past. Your skin, and distance from the source protects you from most radiation. We are exposed to a lot if it everyday. The real danger to those not right near the plant comes from radioactive isotopes you might ingest or inhale. Some of them are chemically similar to compounds in the body and become incorporated into tissue/bone. Personally I wouldn't want to eat anything caught in water too close to that region. They will surely have to watch ocean sediments around the plant very closely to see where they go.

As far as scientific studies go, the way that works, it would take 20-30 years and a bunch of statistical analysis to say "it looks like cancer increased by x amount among certain populations." That really all you'll be able to say conclusively. Small comfort to those affected, who will never know the cause.

Last I heard they were going to freeze the ground to try and keep water from seeping out into the ocean. Sounds ridiculously expensive and at best it will just delay the inevitable. The water will get out eventually. The cost of the "cleanup"/mitigation is pretty staggering.

It seems that Japan narrowly dodged a bullet as far as the airborne land contamination goes. It's a narrow country and could have easily had wide swaths rendered uninhabitable.
 

The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
Nuclear energy is the answer to our energy problems. All of the FUD regarding nuclear energy is misdirected at a few type of reactors. Not all nuclear reactors are the same.

Thorium based breeders reactors are the answer to the future of our energy crisis.

The reason radioactive waste is "radioactive" is because there is still useable fuel products in the waste! Most of the radioactive junk hasn't come from power production but from nuclear weapon creation. The reactors we have currently in the US serve a dual purpose, make more nukes and power our cities.

Breeder reactors can't do this and are infinitely safer than the junk we have now.
 

Handsome Creepy Eel

Owl
Gold Member
https://www.cfact.org/2013/10/12/physicist-there-was-no-fukushima-nuclear-disaster/

Firstly let us get something clear. There was no Fukushima nuclear disaster. Total number of people killed by nuclear radiation at Fukushima was zero. Total injured by radiation was zero. Total private property damaged by radiation….zero. There was no nuclear disaster. What there was, was a major media feeding frenzy fuelled by the rather remote possibility that there may have been a major radiation leak.

At the time, there was media frenzy that “reactors at Fukushima may suffer a core meltdown.” Dire warnings were issued. Well the reactors did suffer a core meltdown. What happened? Nothing.

Certainly from the ‘disaster’ perspective there was a financial disaster for the owners of the Fukushima planJapan Tsunami pushes carst. The plant overheated, suffered a core meltdown, and is now out of commission for ever. A financial disaster, but no nuclear disaster.

I agree with this point of view.
 

AntiTrace

Ostrich
Handsome Creepy Eel said:
https://www.cfact.org/2013/10/12/physicist-there-was-no-fukushima-nuclear-disaster/

Firstly let us get something clear. There was no Fukushima nuclear disaster. Total number of people killed by nuclear radiation at Fukushima was zero. Total injured by radiation was zero. Total private property damaged by radiation….zero. There was no nuclear disaster. What there was, was a major media feeding frenzy fuelled by the rather remote possibility that there may have been a major radiation leak.

At the time, there was media frenzy that “reactors at Fukushima may suffer a core meltdown.” Dire warnings were issued. Well the reactors did suffer a core meltdown. What happened? Nothing.

Certainly from the ‘disaster’ perspective there was a financial disaster for the owners of the Fukushima planJapan Tsunami pushes carst. The plant overheated, suffered a core meltdown, and is now out of commission for ever. A financial disaster, but no nuclear disaster.

I agree with this point of view.

That is a very limited point of view but I do agree in the idea behind it. While the body count is zero due to Fukushima, the simple fact is the radiation did leak out. And we all know radiation is bad. It is however, not the end of the world like many people think.
 

?Kick

Sparrow
It baffles me that this isn't a global crisis and that EVERY country isn't involved in trying to fix. TEPCO has fucked the dog big time on this, I am a believer that the pacific ocean and eventually all other connecting water ways are fucked because of this.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096706371300112X). Luckily we'll be old and grey by the time shit hits the fan, as long as another earthquake doesn't rock Japan that is *nervous laughter*.

Here's a website dedicated to any news surrounding fukushima for those of you that might be interested in researching more about the topic, www.enenews.com. Look at the news that out there, the scientific journals released regarding cesium-137 in the ocean, reports of TEPCO cover-ups, rates of thyroid cancer rising in the prefectures around fukushima and the devastation occurring to marine ecosystems in the pacific ocean (starfish melting, wtf) and draw your own conclusions.
 

RexImperator

Crow
Gold Member
Look up the INES scale of nuclear accidents (IAEA). Fukushima was a level 7, the highest (worst) level. True, Chernobyl was worse, but also a level 7.

I heard a funny quote once, with regard to the US energy market. "Nuclear power is solar power for Republicans." If you think about it, it's true. Neither one could survive in a market without massive government subsidies. The reason either one exists is political.
 
I sleep better at night having worked over the years in the professional tech field w/ former U.S. Navy nuke mechs. Some of the most cynical, professional, well-trained, analytically minded geeks I ever had the pleasure of trolling to meltdown (pun not intended).

Point is after I was explained about the 'big' picture, I don't worry. When I see them worry, then I will. But right now they aren't.
 

The Lizard of Oz

Crow
Gold Member
Aliblahba said:
I sleep better at night having worked over the years in the professional tech field w/ former U.S. Navy nuke mechs. Some of the most cynical, professional, well-trained, analytically minded geeks I ever had the pleasure of trolling to meltdown (pun not intended).

Point is after I was explained about the 'big' picture, I don't worry. When I see them worry, then I will. But right now they aren't.

Great post.

There is no better way to orient yourself about a situation that may be technical and hard to understand on your own than to figure out who the real experts are -- and then find out what they think.

This can be tricky because many so called experts, including well-credentialed ones, are either incompetent or dishonest or both. So unfortunately it's not that simple and a lot of the thinking goes into trying to figure out who to trust.

But yeah -- you don't get much better experts in any field than US Navy nuke mechs are in their field because what they do has to work -- the cost of failure is too high. So when you have the privilege of knowing super-experts of this caliber, you just listen to what they say and it makes your life a lot easier. If only everyone was this rational.
 

thegmanifesto

Peacock
Gold Member
The Lizard of Oz said:
Anyone still remember the BP oil spill that was supposed to permanently destroy the entire Gulf ecosystem?

You don't hear much about it lately, because the Gulf has recovered faster than the optimists believed possible and is thriving as much as ever if not more.

Where are you getting this from?
 

The Lizard of Oz

Crow
Gold Member
thegmanifesto said:
The Lizard of Oz said:
Anyone still remember the BP oil spill that was supposed to permanently destroy the entire Gulf ecosystem?

You don't hear much about it lately, because the Gulf has recovered faster than the optimists believed possible and is thriving as much as ever if not more.

Where are you getting this from?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120417152648.htm

BP Oil Spill, Two Years Later: Natural Recovery Far Greater Than Expected

Apr. 17, 2012 — This Friday, April 20, will mark two years since the explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caused vast quantities of crude oil to flow into the Gulf of Mexico.

But despite the size of the spill, "the natural recovery is far greater than what anybody hoped when it happened," said James Morris, a professor of biology at the University of South Carolina. "The fears of most people -- that there would be a catastrophic collapse of the ecosystem in the Gulf -- never materialized."
 

The Lizard of Oz

Crow
Gold Member
thegmanifesto said:
The Lizard of Oz said:
Anyone still remember the BP oil spill that was supposed to permanently destroy the entire Gulf ecosystem?

You don't hear much about it lately, because the Gulf has recovered faster than the optimists believed possible and is thriving as much as ever if not more.

Where are you getting this from?

Further:

Gulf of Mexico has greater-than-believed ability to self-cleanse oil spills

NEW ORLEANS, April 8, 2013 — The Gulf of Mexico may have a much greater natural ability to self-clean oil spills than previously believed, an expert in bioremediation said here today at the 245th National Meeting & Exposition of the American Chemical Society (ACS), the world's largest scientific society.

Terry C. Hazen, Ph.D., said that conclusion has emerged from research following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, which by some estimates spilled 4.9 million barrels (210 million gallons) of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. His research team used a powerful new approach for identifying microbes in the environment to discover previously unknown bacteria, naturally present in the Gulf water, that consume and break down crude oil.

"The Deepwater Horizon oil provided a new source of nutrients in the deepest waters," explained Hazen, who is with the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. "With more food present in the water, there was a population explosion among those bacteria already adapted to using oil as a food source. It was surprising how fast they consumed the oil. In some locations, it took only one day for them to reduce a gallon of oil to a half gallon. In others, the half-life for a given quantity of spilled oil was 6 days. This data suggests that a great potential for intrinsic bioremediation of oil plumes exists in the deep sea and other environs in the Gulf of Mexico."

Hazen spoke at a symposium, "Environmental Fate of Petroleum Oils and Dispersants in the Marine Environment," that included other reports relating to the Deepwater Horizon spill. They were among 12,000 reports being presented at the ACS meeting, which continues through Thursday. Abstracts of the oil spill symposium appear at the end of this press release.

Oil-eating bacteria are natural inhabitants of the Gulf because of the constant supply of food. Scientists know that there are more than 600 different areas where oil oozes from rocks underlying the Gulf of Mexico. These oil seeps, much like underwater springs, release 560,000-1.4 million barrels of oil annually, according to the National Research Council.

Hazen's team used a powerful new approach for identifying previously recognized kinds of oil-eating bacteria that contributed to the natural clean-up of the Deepwater Horizon spill. In the past, scientists identified microbes by putting samples of water into laboratory culture dishes, waiting for microbes to grow and then using a microscope to identify the microbes. The new approach, called "ecogenomics," uses genetic and other analyses of the DNA, proteins and other footprints of bacteria to provide a more detailed picture of microbial life in the water.

"The bottom line from this research may be that the Gulf of Mexico is more resilient and better able to recover from oil spills than anyone thought," Hazen said. "It shows that we may not need the kinds of heroic measures proposed after the Deepwater Horizon spill, like adding nutrients to speed up the growth of bacteria that breakdown oil, or using genetically engineered bacteria. The Gulf has a broad base of natural bacteria, and they respond to the presence of oil by multiplying quite rapidly."
 

The Lizard of Oz

Crow
Gold Member
The lesson from this is:

The mainstream media is constantly and outrageously overhyping "disasters" and "risks" to control people through fear. It doesn't hurt ad sales, either.

Lunatic environmentalist groups still talk about "ongoing disasters" in the Gulf, shamelessly ignoring the actual conclusions of researchers who have studied the impacts and the recovery.
 
Top