Geopolitics Lounge

[Ember]

This is a place for geopolitical news and discussion that is perhaps not worthy of a dedicated thread.



I'll start with the heavy-handed arrest today of former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, by a swarm of riot police. Imagine other prominent ex-heads of state being manhandled in this way.




[Edit]

It is worse than I thought.

 

[Ember]

 

[Ember]

Events do appear to be escalating rapidly as protests break out across Pakistan.

 

[Ember]

Aside from BRICS, another important element of the emergent multipolar world order is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

 

[Blade Runner]

Will the Deagel prediction (2015) be anywhere near correct for 2025? That is, the 5 eyes nations lose up to 2/3 of their populations?

 

[DanielH]

Will the Deagel prediction (2015) be anywhere near correct for 2025? That is, the 5 eyes nations lose up to 2/3 of their populations?

Deagel is like the anti Q. Since the 1950s we've always been ten years from complete destruction, whether from an impending ice age, global warming, nuclear holocaust, famine, plague, whatever. It'll happen someday but there's no point in obsessing over these predictions, in my opinion.

I think 10 years is always picked because it's just far enough in the future that we can't extrapolate current events that far ahead. If someone were to tell you about a prophecy that China would balkanize in ten years, that's a lot easier to believe than if the same prophet said it would happen in 1-5 years. It's much more risk for the predictor to say something big is going to imminently happen, which is why you rarely see it - and they're still usually wrong.

 

[Ember]

Matters are spiraling out of control in Pakistan. It looks like a full-blown revolution. Army buildings in many cities are being overrun by protesters, and there is widespread evidence of mutiny. Some police have fired on protesters, with three deaths reported so far.

There have been uncorroborated rumors that Imran Khan is being tortured. He reportedly suffered leg and head injuries during his arrest.

The breach of Army Command Headquarters is unprecedented in the country's history.

The internet across Pakistan is now largely shut down. Both the Prime Minister and army chief are not currently in the country.

 

[Ember]

Some background to today's unrest in Pakistan.



No surprise that the CIA looms large in events leading to today.

 

[Ember]

It is still total chaos in Pakistan, with the military opening fire in places.

 

[Ember]

~ Zalmay Khalilzad (ex diplomat) who was part of Afghanistan’s reconciliation under Trump admin explains the current situation in Pakistan and claims that Imran Khan could be killed while in custody.

✍ Journalist Arif Rafiq on the situation in Pakistan

It's probably not a good idea for the generals to kill someone that was once considered almost a 'living god' across Pakistan.

 

[Ember]

The Pakistan Supreme Court has stated that Imran Khan's arrest was illegal and has ordered that he be presented.

 

[Ember]

The Supreme Court has freed Imran Khan, although as his life is in danger, he is to stay in the SC guest house until 'security clearance' received. Will the military retaliate against the Supreme Court?

 

[Blade Runner]

Deagel is like the anti Q. Since the 1950s we've always been ten years from complete destruction, whether from an impending ice age, global warming, nuclear holocaust, famine, plague, whatever. It'll happen someday but there's no point in obsessing over these predictions, in my opinion.

I think 10 years is always picked because it's just far enough in the future that we can't extrapolate current events that far ahead. If someone were to tell you about a prophecy that China would balkanize in ten years, that's a lot easier to believe than if the same prophet said it would happen in 1-5 years. It's much more risk for the predictor to say something big is going to imminently happen, which is why you rarely see it - and they're still usually wrong.

Good point. Zeihan said 10 years ago that China would collapse by now, by the way

 

[Blade Runner]

Another question, perhaps it should be moved to a different thread:

If there is significant depopulation, will it be more because of war or injections/new disease/pandemics?

 

[Thomas More]

Another question, perhaps it should be moved to a different thread:

If there is significant depopulation, will it be more because of war or injections/new disease/pandemics?

Neither. It will be due to birth control, female careerism, high cost of child rearing, and preference for a hedonistic lifestyle.

These have already slashed the birthrate in much of the world, and are rapidly making inroads to the few remaining high fertility populations.

This combination of incentives and penalties is inexorable. Global population growth will soon reach zero and begin declining, and will continue to decline almost indefinitely.

Of course a black swan depopulation event such as war or disease is possible, but these have never previously prevented overall population growth. They only affect local areas in the short term. Only the factors I mentioned have reduced population.

 

[Blade Runner]

Neither. It will be due to birth control, female careerism, high cost of child rearing, and preference for a hedonistic lifestyle.

These have already slashed the birthrate in much of the world, and are rapidly making inroads to the few remaining high fertility populations.

This combination of incentives and penalties is inexorable. Global population growth will soon reach zero and begin declining, and will continue to decline almost indefinitely.

Of course a black swan depopulation event such as war or disease is possible, but these have never previously prevented overall population growth. They only affect local areas in the short term. Only the factors I mentioned have reduced population.

This seems to keep supporting the fact that while we are all so scandalized by it, it seems quite natural historically for such things to happen after population booms, no?

 

[Thomas More]

This seems to keep supporting the fact that while we are all so scandalized by it, it seems quite natural historically for such things to happen after population booms, no?

I think it's a combination of what happens in decadent societies, but on a global scale, and the effect from that experiment where they let mice or rats expand their population to the limits of their enclosure, but with unlimited food.

Of course while I made my statement as if I know for certain, I'm really just a keyboard warrior making predictions.

 

[Blade Runner]

I think it's a combination of what happens in decadent societies, but on a global scale, and the effect from that experiment where they let mice or rats expand their population to the limits of their enclosure, but with unlimited food.

Of course while I made my statement as if I know for certain, I'm really just a keyboard warrior making predictions.

I think it's largely right. Everyone is chasing the dream, but few want to recognize the society for what it is = sick. The problem we have on this forum is that we inherited the cycle portion where even though we are doing our best to follow God and make the best of the situation, the macro cycle dominates any desire of ours. You can only do what you can do, but the structural and legal realities that are anti-family are really, really, strong. I don't know why that is allowed, but hey, I didn't create the universe, so who am I to question why things are the way they are.

 

[Ember]

Imran Khan has been given bail in eight cases involving the high court and is finally free to go home. The military is using lawfare, but the judges are having none of it.

 

[Ember]

In Pakistan, the army is engaged in massive repression, and a quasi state of emergency still exists.