Global finance markets declining

[TheFinalEpic]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

"The stock market is the only place where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store."

 

[Disco_Volante]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

BTW

it's common financial 'knowledge' that a young person should invest more heavily in risky stocks compared to an older person.

I always felt this theory was bullshit, because the last couple weeks have shown you can get wiped out for your stupid theory.

The common response is 'but you have time to recover since you're young! so buy more stocks!'

but the loss was completely avoidable in the first place. It's not necessary to take risks just because a fucking financial theory book tells you to at your age. Anyone person with an aggressive 401k would have their shit wiped out this past week. All that work, time, and money just disappears into thin air.

 

[Bear Hands]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

The Dow was down more than 1000 points this morning. It's at -114 as of posting. The people who really lost their asses are the ones who panicked and sold because of a fluctuation in 1 part of 1 day. Whoever was the buyer in those morning trades already got a profit.

 

[CleanSlate]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

The Dow was down more than 1000 points this morning. It's at -114 as of posting. The people who really lost their asses are the ones who panicked and sold because of a fluctuation in 1 part of 1 day. Whoever was the buyer in those morning trades already got a profit.

Damn. I should have bought something earlier this morning. Oh well, you can't really time the market anyways.

 

[Passive Menis]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

BTW

it's common financial 'knowledge' that a young person should invest more heavily in risky stocks compared to an older person.

I always felt this theory was bullshit, because the last couple weeks have shown you can get wiped out for your stupid theory.

The common response is 'but you have time to recover since you're young! so buy more stocks!'

but the loss was completely avoidable in the first place. It's not necessary to take risks just because a fucking financial theory book tells you to at your age. Anyone person with an aggressive 401k would have their shit wiped out this past week. All that work, time, and money just disappears into thin air.

High-risk, high-return. You can avoid losing a lot of money by only making low-risk investments, but you also avoid making a lot of money (at least from your investments). That's why people invest in high-risk instruments.

Also, "wiped out" is a huge exaggeration. That's only the case if they've only been investing for the past few months. The market is still higher than it was a year ago, and much higher than it was three years ago: http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-growth/vanguard-growth-index-fund/vigrx

Don't get me wrong, the U.S. economy is structurally unsound and once the dollar inevitably implodes the Fed will have to raise rates which will pop the credit-fueled bubbles in stocks, housing, etc and cause an economic crisis worse than the last one. This is just a minor correction though.

 

[Durango]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Think this is a sign of more things to come. The commodity markets keep declining, basically have been in a 4 year bear market. This paints a better economic picture as commodities are real and are harder to goose than other financial assets financed by cheap money and credit.

Along with this, the economic data has been weak all year in the States, with weak manufacturing index numbers and all-time highs in the amount of people not in the labor force.

Don't think a market collapse is near, but with global economic turmoil and weak economic numbers in America, seriously doubt the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates anytime soon. If a serious correction occurs, maybe QE4 or negative interest rates? Have zero faith they will let the market correct itself.

Edit: See that the Dow has rallied, only down 110 points now. I think it will run out of steam and be down around 250-300 by the end of the day.

 

[Bad Hussar]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Looks like most of the mornings declines have reversed. But the stock market does look overbought. You can't have years of gains without severe pain...eventually. The Dow retracing back to around 12,000 over the next year or two would be a positive sign that the market is regaining sanity.

Doesn't often happen, but if this could occur without a big increase in unemployment or reduced real wages it would be very positive. i.e. Minimal impact on the real economy. Basically mean that the losses are borne by the investor class, rather than the broad working class. I know many people own stocks, obviously, but a good part of the gains of the last 6 years are "funny money", based on...well nothing at all. So a correction is long overdue.

 

[TheSlayer]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Even with the corrections happening all over the world and now in North America if you have money, now's a good time to buy some assets. That's how the rich get richer anyway. They buy assets when they are cheap and then sit on them.

 

[Durango]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Even with the corrections happening all over the world and now in North America if you have money, now's a good time to buy some assets. That's how the rich get richer anyway. They buy assets when they are cheap and then sit on them.

As Jim Rogers said, "sell euphoria, buy panic."

 

[262]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Attempting to predict financial markets and make money on them on a short-term basis is pretty hard - just ask the legions of guys who get paid to do so with other people's money in the Wall Streets of the world (hint: they still sometimes fail and sometimes eat the consequences [can't say always with the taxpayer bailouts a few years ago]).

If I recall correctly, there's a short-term trader data sheet on this forum, and it says (again if I recall correctly) that even the best short-term traders can't quite tell you how they do it. For them, it's more of an art than a science. And like any art, it's one that took them time and experience to develop.

On a long-term basis, unless you don't adjust - which includes spending the same even when the cost of living changes - you should be fine. As I mention in my relocation thread, just as there's no 100% fool-proof online business, there's no 100% fool-proof "living off interest" plan. In both cases, you've got to balance a plan with flexibility.

 

[Dr. Howard]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

The Dow was down more than 1000 points this morning. It's at -114 as of posting. The people who really lost their asses are the ones who panicked and sold because of a fluctuation in 1 part of 1 day. Whoever was the buyer in those morning trades already got a profit.

Damn. I should have bought something earlier this morning. Oh well, you can't really time the market anyways.

Yes, in hindsight some people made a good margin on apple this morning if they bought during the drop. It fell 10%, then recovered in 3 hours.

 

[The Beast1]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

I've been actively watching YANG and CHAD (two inverse chinese ETFS).

It's a small 2k play with a bit of my savings. When I went in, the stocks all dipped from my average of 95ish dollars a share to 81 if I recall correctly.

I held knowing it was going to go back up. Calling market bottoms and tops is hard. So long as you're close you can't really complain.

I'll be taking profits along the way. Very happy with the 200$ I made doing nothing

 

[WalterBlack]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Baron Rothschild (18th century British nobleman) - “buy when there’s blood in the streets.”
-----------------

There goes my 401k again

I've heard more than a few people say this about their 401K over the years. Most people are not about to retire right now and it should recover eventually in the long term unless there's some very risky investments.

 

[Jaydublin]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Too many people are talking as if a 10% correction is a blood in the streets scenario. It's not. Im not saying one should not be buying at these prices(that's up to you) but as of now this is just a common correction. There is not blood in the streets and there is not that much panic, yet.

2008/2009 was just a few years ago, thats closer to what blood in the streets looks like.

 

[Tuthmosis]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Call me a hippie socialist who has one of those pussy beards to mask his weak face and stands with his feet close together (none of which is true), but I've never taken the Dow Jones--or other indices like it--as good markers of how we're doing as a nation, especially for people who actually work for a living. It measures how the corporations, who poison and fatten our women and children for selfish profit--and the ultra-rich sociopaths who run them--are doing. We need to keep buying shit to keep the Dow going up, not be good mothers or fathers who don't tell our sons to chop off their dicks to release their inner woman, who teach them how to stand up to a bully, or teach our daughters that the massive power their beauty affords them won't last forever. The Dow has been climbing as the opposite of those things, and even worse, have spread like collective cancers on our society.

One of the great lies the ultra-rich have pulled off was convincing people to give a shit about their quarterly earnings. There's no such thing as "too big to fail" without this lie being taken as truth. We don't need a society free entirely of profit motive--which sparks innovation and consumer choice--but we also don't need one where the average citizen gets scared when a company doesn't show growth every single fiscal year.

The best words ever spoken on this matter were said Robert F. Kennedy, who actually sounds like a good social conservative in much of this:

 

[Bad Hussar]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Call me a hippie socialist who has one of those pussy beards to mask his weak face and stands with his feet close together (none of which is true), but I've never taken the Dow Jones--or other indices like it--as good markers of how we're doing as a nation, especially for people who actually work for a living. It measures how the corporations, who poison and fatten our women and children for selfish profit--and the ultra-rich sociopaths who run them--are doing. We need to keep buying shit to keep the Dow going up, not be good mothers or fathers.

The best words ever spoken on this matter were said Robert F. Kennedy, who actually sounds like a good social conservative in much of this:

...

There is some reality in stock prices, but especially when the markets behave irrationally under the weight of debt (high leverage) the values are even completely divorced from the realistic "net present value of future cash flows" of the company; let alone divorced from actual value they add to the world.

Not to say that there is any mechanism that would result in a match between stock prices, $ value added and actual value added. Any kind of socialist system would be worse than whatever you have now, especially in America. A socialist America will just be a combination of the WORST aspects of socialism and capitalism.

The best approach may actually be what people are doing at this modest forum. Picking from "freedom" the best aspects and having the strength to reject the worst. An approach that severely restricts peoples ability to choose, in terms of law, never seems to have the desired effect.

 

[Sherman]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Actually, those were the good old days when the Dow actually reflected the GNP. Now, the markets are managed by the central banks. The economy doesn't have to do well for the stock market to go up.

 

[captain_shane]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Swiss francs are probably the safest place to keep money right now. The Ruble is getting absolutely clobbered, might be a good time to visit Russia.

 

[Travesty]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

If this is only a 10% correction then there is bound to be a haymaker thrown in the next year.

Without some super invention like the computer or the internet how can it not happen? Elance jobs and food trucks won't save us.

$19T debt - $24T is the vanishing point.

Minimum wage is about poverty level.

 

[Bad Hussar]

RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

If this is only a 10% correction then there is bound to be a haymaker thrown in the next year.

Without some super invention like the computer or the internet how can it not happen? Elance jobs and food trucks won't save us.

$19T debt - $24T is the vanishing point.

Minimum wage is about poverty level.

Your imagined invention would likely need to be something in the energy field that results in energy so cheap that it sparks a sort of new industrial revolution. Something like very high efficiency solar capture. Orders of magnitude better than the best we have now. Of course most will say this is impossible in terms of the laws of Physics, but this belief has been proved wrong many times before. If something like this can be devised that "sucking sound" American politicians like to talk about will be all the Middle East's petro states money being sucked out of them and being distributed to others.