Global finance markets declining
- Thread starter Roosh
- Start date
- Status
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Time to stock up (no pun intended) on some of my favorite dividend providers.
And Tuth is right - the financial markets, especially the modern financial markets, have very little to do with the actual prosperity of a nation and are more akin to a giant casino. The traffic and revenue of a casino are dependent mainly on its marketing abilities and the willingness of people to come in and throw money around randomly, not on the actual prosperity around its building.
Time to stock up (no pun intended) on some of my favorite dividend providers.
And Tuth is right - the financial markets, especially the modern financial markets, have very little to do with the actual prosperity of a nation and are more akin to a giant casino. The traffic and revenue of a casino are dependent mainly on its marketing abilities and the willingness of people to come in and throw money around randomly, not on the actual prosperity around its building.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
My stock prediction : My Net Fone (MNF) will be an amazing investment on the ASX for those who buy in now and hold.
My stock prediction : My Net Fone (MNF) will be an amazing investment on the ASX for those who buy in now and hold.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
I don't know whether this is "the big one" but let's get one thing out of the way: the big one is definitely coming. I say this because we here in the United States (and the West in general) have been delaying the inevitable for the last 15 years or more. We have completely hollowed out our economy, to the point where it's hard to explain exactly why it is an American makes more money than a Chinese or a Brazilian. This is gonna be a long post but bear with me:
Let's step way, way back here, all the way to the post WWII golden era that created the very concept of the "middle class" in the USA and W. Europe. This golden age was a byproduct of completely self sustainable, industrial economies. In the 1950's, the world economy basically consisted of the West as a mighty colossus with 75%+ of world GDP, the USSR as a nearly isolated hermit kingdom, and random flotsam and jetsom across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Note that this was the strongest and most dominant the West (or indeed, any civilization or empire in the history of the world) has ever been, and there was no global trade to speak of at the time. The USSR was an enemy, Asia either lay in ruins (Korea), was in the process of killing itself (China) or was a swampy malaria infested shithole (Singapore, Malaysa, etc). Africa was Africa. What trade there was occurred within the West itself. And again, this was the most prosperous the West has ever been.
The first challenge to this paradigm occurred during the oil wars in the 70s. A huge rise in energy prices was basically a transfer of wealth from the West to OPEC. OPEC had the oil so this was basically unavoidable. However, this period also marked the entry of Japan onto the scene as a parasitic, mercantilist state, a phenomenon that was made possible by the West's fanatical pursuit of unilateral disarmament vis a vis trade policy, ie "free trade." This was the beginning of the end of the Industrialized West. While Western companies were not moving factories from the West to Asia at that point, unfair Japanese competition forced many manufacturers into bankruptcy or retreat from those markets targeted by the Japanese, which resulted in a de-facto shifting of production overseas. But the West was still mighty, and big, and Japan was just one country. The Western economies weakened, but there was only so much blood Japan could suck out on is own.
The real hurting started in the late 80's and early 90's with the "opening up" of China and the implementation of various global trade schemes like GATT and NAFTA. What began to happen at that point was the divorcing of consumption from production. Shareholder capitalism reigned supreme and Western corporations decided to embark on a division of labor of sorts: their homelands in the West would be where they SOLD things, while China and the rest of developing Asia would be where they'd MAKE things. In effect, Western corporations turned into Asian manufacturing powerhouses with sales and marketing offices located in the US and Europe.
Needless to say, "selling things" is not a self sustaining economic activity for a nation. This goes double when it comes to selling things to yourself, which in effect was what the Western economy had been reduced to by the 2000s. China, under the guise of Western corporations that set up manufacturing operations there, sold its goods to the West. The West didn't really sell anything to China. So how could the West afford to buy these Chinese goods? Well, each year China loaned much of the money it earned from selling stuff to the West back, so that the West could use it to buy yet more stuff from China. Throw in Alan Greenspan's (remember that guy?) brilliant discovery that printing money could artificially juice the economy so long as the money being printed was the reserve currency, and the fact that the Western economy was being hollowed out was masked for a while.
So shit was good from the 90's up through 2008 despite the fact that Asia/NAFTA was sucking the economy dry via offshoring. We had capital inflows and the Fed was printing money and keeping rates low, so asset prices went up and people were taking home equity loans like it was going out of style. The period leading up to 2008 was the heyday of the "the world is flat" consumption driven economy. Then 2008 hit and home equity loans did in fact "go out of style."
So, we had debt fueled consumer spending masking the willful destruction of the American economy for most of the 90's and the entire 00's. The crash of 2008 meant credit was no longer so readily obtained, and moreover people became afraid of debt. At the same time, the industrial economy was gone, moved east, so manufacturing was not going to take the place of consumer spending. Because manufacturing was gone, there wasn't even a way to implement a good old fashioned Keynesian stimulus: who gives a shit if you cut taxes or otherwise try to boost consumption: since everything is made overseas now, all that will do is boost the Chinese economy, not the American.
The truth is, the crash of 2008 was not really the crash of 2008. It was really the crash of 1990-2008, with 2008 simply marking the point where the credit ran out and the song stopped, and people finally slowed down enough to realize there was no there there. The only sane response to the situation would have been to suck it up and accept that the $12 trillion economy in 2008 was in fact an $8 trillion economy (or whatever) and perhaps re-evaluate the suicidal economic policies that brought us so low, and try to rebuild.
Instead, of course, TPTB doubled down on stupid. Obama nearly doubled the national debt (which had taken us over 2 centuries to accumulate) in the space of 7 years. The FED lowered rates to virtually zero and if that wasn't enough, decided to pump over $4 trillion to its friends in the private sector via quantitative easing. That's over $10 trillion dollars from thin air injected into our financial system between federal spending and FED spending, and the upshot? The work force participation rate is the lowest it has ever been. That's another way of saying unemployment, the real one that is, is the highest it's ever been. In other words, all these stimuli have not managed to boost the real economy one little bit. We have slid backwards, in fact. Yeah, the markets are up, because that $10 trillion + of fake money must go somewhere.
So the song goes on, for now. In 2008, we had a brief day of reckoning because the consumer debt and house pricing bubble popped all at once. The elites said fuck it, we'll make hay while the sun shines, and are apparently hell bent on delaying the "correction" for as long as possible. I don't really blame them, I guess. The real correction will reflect the fact that the United States is no longer a modern, industrialized nation with a corresponding standard of living. I mean, we lost almost the entirety of our manufacturing and it has been replaced by what, a bunch of Taco Bells and 5000 phaglets working at Facebook headquarters? That's gonna leave a mark unless you keep the printing presses running 24/7. I wouldn't be surprised if the elites mask that shit till the very end, even if it means the end will be the popping of the fiat currency itself.
I don't know whether this is "the big one" but let's get one thing out of the way: the big one is definitely coming. I say this because we here in the United States (and the West in general) have been delaying the inevitable for the last 15 years or more. We have completely hollowed out our economy, to the point where it's hard to explain exactly why it is an American makes more money than a Chinese or a Brazilian. This is gonna be a long post but bear with me:
Let's step way, way back here, all the way to the post WWII golden era that created the very concept of the "middle class" in the USA and W. Europe. This golden age was a byproduct of completely self sustainable, industrial economies. In the 1950's, the world economy basically consisted of the West as a mighty colossus with 75%+ of world GDP, the USSR as a nearly isolated hermit kingdom, and random flotsam and jetsom across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Note that this was the strongest and most dominant the West (or indeed, any civilization or empire in the history of the world) has ever been, and there was no global trade to speak of at the time. The USSR was an enemy, Asia either lay in ruins (Korea), was in the process of killing itself (China) or was a swampy malaria infested shithole (Singapore, Malaysa, etc). Africa was Africa. What trade there was occurred within the West itself. And again, this was the most prosperous the West has ever been.
The first challenge to this paradigm occurred during the oil wars in the 70s. A huge rise in energy prices was basically a transfer of wealth from the West to OPEC. OPEC had the oil so this was basically unavoidable. However, this period also marked the entry of Japan onto the scene as a parasitic, mercantilist state, a phenomenon that was made possible by the West's fanatical pursuit of unilateral disarmament vis a vis trade policy, ie "free trade." This was the beginning of the end of the Industrialized West. While Western companies were not moving factories from the West to Asia at that point, unfair Japanese competition forced many manufacturers into bankruptcy or retreat from those markets targeted by the Japanese, which resulted in a de-facto shifting of production overseas. But the West was still mighty, and big, and Japan was just one country. The Western economies weakened, but there was only so much blood Japan could suck out on is own.
The real hurting started in the late 80's and early 90's with the "opening up" of China and the implementation of various global trade schemes like GATT and NAFTA. What began to happen at that point was the divorcing of consumption from production. Shareholder capitalism reigned supreme and Western corporations decided to embark on a division of labor of sorts: their homelands in the West would be where they SOLD things, while China and the rest of developing Asia would be where they'd MAKE things. In effect, Western corporations turned into Asian manufacturing powerhouses with sales and marketing offices located in the US and Europe.
Needless to say, "selling things" is not a self sustaining economic activity for a nation. This goes double when it comes to selling things to yourself, which in effect was what the Western economy had been reduced to by the 2000s. China, under the guise of Western corporations that set up manufacturing operations there, sold its goods to the West. The West didn't really sell anything to China. So how could the West afford to buy these Chinese goods? Well, each year China loaned much of the money it earned from selling stuff to the West back, so that the West could use it to buy yet more stuff from China. Throw in Alan Greenspan's (remember that guy?) brilliant discovery that printing money could artificially juice the economy so long as the money being printed was the reserve currency, and the fact that the Western economy was being hollowed out was masked for a while.
So shit was good from the 90's up through 2008 despite the fact that Asia/NAFTA was sucking the economy dry via offshoring. We had capital inflows and the Fed was printing money and keeping rates low, so asset prices went up and people were taking home equity loans like it was going out of style. The period leading up to 2008 was the heyday of the "the world is flat" consumption driven economy. Then 2008 hit and home equity loans did in fact "go out of style."
So, we had debt fueled consumer spending masking the willful destruction of the American economy for most of the 90's and the entire 00's. The crash of 2008 meant credit was no longer so readily obtained, and moreover people became afraid of debt. At the same time, the industrial economy was gone, moved east, so manufacturing was not going to take the place of consumer spending. Because manufacturing was gone, there wasn't even a way to implement a good old fashioned Keynesian stimulus: who gives a shit if you cut taxes or otherwise try to boost consumption: since everything is made overseas now, all that will do is boost the Chinese economy, not the American.
The truth is, the crash of 2008 was not really the crash of 2008. It was really the crash of 1990-2008, with 2008 simply marking the point where the credit ran out and the song stopped, and people finally slowed down enough to realize there was no there there. The only sane response to the situation would have been to suck it up and accept that the $12 trillion economy in 2008 was in fact an $8 trillion economy (or whatever) and perhaps re-evaluate the suicidal economic policies that brought us so low, and try to rebuild.
Instead, of course, TPTB doubled down on stupid. Obama nearly doubled the national debt (which had taken us over 2 centuries to accumulate) in the space of 7 years. The FED lowered rates to virtually zero and if that wasn't enough, decided to pump over $4 trillion to its friends in the private sector via quantitative easing. That's over $10 trillion dollars from thin air injected into our financial system between federal spending and FED spending, and the upshot? The work force participation rate is the lowest it has ever been. That's another way of saying unemployment, the real one that is, is the highest it's ever been. In other words, all these stimuli have not managed to boost the real economy one little bit. We have slid backwards, in fact. Yeah, the markets are up, because that $10 trillion + of fake money must go somewhere.
So the song goes on, for now. In 2008, we had a brief day of reckoning because the consumer debt and house pricing bubble popped all at once. The elites said fuck it, we'll make hay while the sun shines, and are apparently hell bent on delaying the "correction" for as long as possible. I don't really blame them, I guess. The real correction will reflect the fact that the United States is no longer a modern, industrialized nation with a corresponding standard of living. I mean, we lost almost the entirety of our manufacturing and it has been replaced by what, a bunch of Taco Bells and 5000 phaglets working at Facebook headquarters? That's gonna leave a mark unless you keep the printing presses running 24/7. I wouldn't be surprised if the elites mask that shit till the very end, even if it means the end will be the popping of the fiat currency itself.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Then welcome the one world currency, the ultimate dream of the 0.0001% elite.
Fast Eddie said:
Then welcome the one world currency, the ultimate dream of the 0.0001% elite.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
WC hasn't posted on these forums in a long time.
And most finance guys dazzle people with numbers, charts, and bravado. However the dirty truth is they're just as clueless as most other people. Learning how to manage funds yourself is a goal everyone should esteem for. Don't trust the brahs rolling around lower Manhattan unless you want to get eaten alive yourself.
LeBeau said:Travesty said:This is my favorite Wall St. Playboys tweet this morning an hour after open (paraphrasing):
"Nothing to see here just retail retards panicking making us all richer, indexes have all recovered"
A few hours later...
"If today taught us anything it is to run your own company, never put yourself in the hands of others"
Okay so first everyone is a retard, now suddenly the world isn't safe do your own thing!
God damn the double talk of finance guys never grows old. Why do they get a paycheck again? I have a close family member in hedge funds and has made 7 figures. He couldn't tell you the drops to save his life just long winded explanations that probably sound good to rich people but never get to a real point.
You should probably apply to take his job then, clearly you're more insightful than him, Westcoast, and other finance guys.
Otherwise you just sound bitter and confused.
WC hasn't posted on these forums in a long time.
And most finance guys dazzle people with numbers, charts, and bravado. However the dirty truth is they're just as clueless as most other people. Learning how to manage funds yourself is a goal everyone should esteem for. Don't trust the brahs rolling around lower Manhattan unless you want to get eaten alive yourself.
Passive Menis
Chicken
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
I fail to see how those two statements are contradictory in the slightest.Travesty said:This is my favorite Wall St. Playboys tweet this morning an hour after open (paraphrasing):
"Nothing to see here just retail retards panicking making us all richer, indexes have all recovered"
A few hours later...
"If today taught us anything it is to run your own company, never put yourself in the hands of others"
Okay so first everyone is a retard, now suddenly the world isn't safe do your own thing!
God damn the double talk of finance guys never grows old. Why do they get a paycheck again? I have a close family member in hedge funds and has made 7 figures. He couldn't tell you the drops to save his life just long winded explanations that probably sound good to rich people but never get to a real point.
TrifeLife
Woodpecker
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
So shits gonna hit the fan, how do we protect our wealth from disappearing when it does? Where are you guys going to put yours, buying physical gold for real? I'm trying to learn as much as I can about this shit so I can help my mom with her (my) assets. She (and my dad, he passed a while back) has been frugal and I'm guessing her net assets are between $1m - $1.5m. 500k is in cash right now since she just sold a house, the rest in our new house (completely paid off) plus a couple undeveloped properties.
I feel like I urgently need to educate myself because the clock is ticking. Any books you guys would recommend on the topic?
So shits gonna hit the fan, how do we protect our wealth from disappearing when it does? Where are you guys going to put yours, buying physical gold for real? I'm trying to learn as much as I can about this shit so I can help my mom with her (my) assets. She (and my dad, he passed a while back) has been frugal and I'm guessing her net assets are between $1m - $1.5m. 500k is in cash right now since she just sold a house, the rest in our new house (completely paid off) plus a couple undeveloped properties.
I feel like I urgently need to educate myself because the clock is ticking. Any books you guys would recommend on the topic?
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Not sure if kaotic was being sarcastic, but Beast was touching on the opinions shared in this thread ( http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-47431.html ) on financial advisors. TL;DR - Read the materials that CFA students get tested on. Don't blindly hand your money over to a financial advisor, even if he's your brother (not that you should be mixing business and family anyway).
kaotic said:
Not sure if kaotic was being sarcastic, but Beast was touching on the opinions shared in this thread ( http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-47431.html ) on financial advisors. TL;DR - Read the materials that CFA students get tested on. Don't blindly hand your money over to a financial advisor, even if he's your brother (not that you should be mixing business and family anyway).
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
I was being sarcastic, because from what I'm reading even some of the guys with good knowledge have no idea what can happen, what's going on, etc.
I'm just trying to figure out if I should worry about this, what I should do to alleviate any losses, and find out what I should do with a 401K - I have no other investments.
Honestly, I'm reading through this thread trying to understand it all, and half of it is a foreign language to me.
I'm just trying to educate myself here.
262 said:
I was being sarcastic, because from what I'm reading even some of the guys with good knowledge have no idea what can happen, what's going on, etc.
I'm just trying to figure out if I should worry about this, what I should do to alleviate any losses, and find out what I should do with a 401K - I have no other investments.
Honestly, I'm reading through this thread trying to understand it all, and half of it is a foreign language to me.
I'm just trying to educate myself here.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Kaotic,
You want some simple advice? Move a large percentage of your 401k into stable value products (cash, bonds, etc). I just moved all of my 401k into stable value after I lost 1k in value over the course of a few days.
I'm going to be rolling over my 401k into an IRA once I leave the country in a few weeks. However, being young my 401k was set up aggressively to get the most gains over the past 3 years. The level of exposure I have to all of this was very high. I will not let some market correction wipe out that gains I made.
Wait until after the fed's september FOMC meeting to move out of stable value products. Then re-invest in whatever you had in before.
I said it earlier, you'll never be able to call a market top or bottom. As long as you're close, that's the best you can do.
Financial forecasting is akin to astrology. I'll take my finances in my own hands before I trust it to a finance bro.
Kaotic,
You want some simple advice? Move a large percentage of your 401k into stable value products (cash, bonds, etc). I just moved all of my 401k into stable value after I lost 1k in value over the course of a few days.
I'm going to be rolling over my 401k into an IRA once I leave the country in a few weeks. However, being young my 401k was set up aggressively to get the most gains over the past 3 years. The level of exposure I have to all of this was very high. I will not let some market correction wipe out that gains I made.
Wait until after the fed's september FOMC meeting to move out of stable value products. Then re-invest in whatever you had in before.
I said it earlier, you'll never be able to call a market top or bottom. As long as you're close, that's the best you can do.
Financial forecasting is akin to astrology. I'll take my finances in my own hands before I trust it to a finance bro.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Saw this in the wallstreet journal comments section, I asked what a safe currency would be when the dollar goes to shit.
It will be a new mult-national currency, similar to the way the euro became the currency of many nations of Europe as they lost their sovereignty to the multi-national corporations which are the real rulers of the Western world. This same Oligarchy has orchestrated the collapse of the dollar so as to replace it with a muti-national currency, leading ultimately to folding the former USA into a world government, controlled completely by the Oligarchy of multi-national corporations.
There are a lot of old, powerful rich guys who post interesting things on WSJ comments, you can learn a lot.
Saw this in the wallstreet journal comments section, I asked what a safe currency would be when the dollar goes to shit.
It will be a new mult-national currency, similar to the way the euro became the currency of many nations of Europe as they lost their sovereignty to the multi-national corporations which are the real rulers of the Western world. This same Oligarchy has orchestrated the collapse of the dollar so as to replace it with a muti-national currency, leading ultimately to folding the former USA into a world government, controlled completely by the Oligarchy of multi-national corporations.
There are a lot of old, powerful rich guys who post interesting things on WSJ comments, you can learn a lot.
Kingsley Davis
Ostrich
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
With all due respect to the posters here, I wouldn't read this thread for market advice, just as I wouldn't go to a finance forum for game advice. There's a few posts that are good (robreke dropping some serious knowledge), but signal to noise ratio is low. I could go post-by-post and correct people, but it would take forever and people wouldn't appreciate it anyway. Maybe baseball umpire isn't the only job where everyone watching you thinks they could do it better.
Props to Easy for referencing Armstrong.
As for WSP/WestCoast not being able to call the dips, of course not. He's in IB. They're real estate agents, but buying/selling companies instead of real estate. People who aren't in banking/finance think everyone who works in banking/finance does the same thing.
Edit: No disrespect to WestCoast. I follow his blog religiously. The man knows a thing or two about success.
kaotic said:
With all due respect to the posters here, I wouldn't read this thread for market advice, just as I wouldn't go to a finance forum for game advice. There's a few posts that are good (robreke dropping some serious knowledge), but signal to noise ratio is low. I could go post-by-post and correct people, but it would take forever and people wouldn't appreciate it anyway. Maybe baseball umpire isn't the only job where everyone watching you thinks they could do it better.
Props to Easy for referencing Armstrong.
As for WSP/WestCoast not being able to call the dips, of course not. He's in IB. They're real estate agents, but buying/selling companies instead of real estate. People who aren't in banking/finance think everyone who works in banking/finance does the same thing.
Edit: No disrespect to WestCoast. I follow his blog religiously. The man knows a thing or two about success.
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
*2 with what Foolsgo1d said. I know just enough to be foolishly dangerous. What's your take on all of this?
Peregrine said:
*2 with what Foolsgo1d said. I know just enough to be foolishly dangerous. What's your take on all of this?
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)
Thanks for asking, but it really doesn't matter what I believe. I will quote Martin Armstrong in saying that international capital flows are key, we are experiencing a public/debt bubble rather than a private/equity bubble, Sept will be volatile as fuck, we are in a short term correction that will hurt a lot of people, DJIA could have further to fall before rising to 23000, while gold continues to trend down. US equities and USD will rise not because the country is doing well, but because they are the only places for capital to go as the rest of the world turns down. Longer term, the USD may fall, but not in the next few years. Those who say the USD is doomed will need to find new excuse after new excuse for why it continues to rise.
I don't follow Armstrong for his opinion either. It's his data and models. He himself insists that his opinion means nothing, as all human opinion is inherently biased and not comprehensive. I'm looking forward to his conference in November.
I applaud your self awareness. I also used to know just enough to think I knew what was going on and why. Like you said, foolishly dangerous. And I paid for it in the markets (the markets are never wrong, and it's not "manipulation"). Now I know better, enough to know just how little I know.
However, I am confident that everything in the world is interconnected and market forces are way bigger than any central bank. That's how Soros was able to break the English bank - no peg in the history of the world has ever stood the test of time. It's all about energy and cycles.
Foolsgo1d said:
Thanks for asking, but it really doesn't matter what I believe. I will quote Martin Armstrong in saying that international capital flows are key, we are experiencing a public/debt bubble rather than a private/equity bubble, Sept will be volatile as fuck, we are in a short term correction that will hurt a lot of people, DJIA could have further to fall before rising to 23000, while gold continues to trend down. US equities and USD will rise not because the country is doing well, but because they are the only places for capital to go as the rest of the world turns down. Longer term, the USD may fall, but not in the next few years. Those who say the USD is doomed will need to find new excuse after new excuse for why it continues to rise.
I don't follow Armstrong for his opinion either. It's his data and models. He himself insists that his opinion means nothing, as all human opinion is inherently biased and not comprehensive. I'm looking forward to his conference in November.
I applaud your self awareness. I also used to know just enough to think I knew what was going on and why. Like you said, foolishly dangerous. And I paid for it in the markets (the markets are never wrong, and it's not "manipulation"). Now I know better, enough to know just how little I know.
However, I am confident that everything in the world is interconnected and market forces are way bigger than any central bank. That's how Soros was able to break the English bank - no peg in the history of the world has ever stood the test of time. It's all about energy and cycles.
- Status