Global finance markets declining

Status
Not open for further replies.

Easy_C

Peacock
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Foolsgo1d said:
There's going to be another US government shutdown like the last time? You could forgive these morons for forgetting such an event happened 10-15 years ago but it wasn't even two years ago!! :laugh:

Probably not.

The spending agreement actually ran out Oct 1st, but what happened behind the scenes is that a deal was made for Boehner to resign as speaker of the conservatives in congress would keep the government open.

Boehner's still there now so anything could happen.
 

tynamite

 
Banned
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

I'm not affected by the stock market because I'm in an investment group that makes money. They started out with £100 and turned it into £1000 in one year and now they've got £21,000 in their account. It provides much higher interest than a savings account. If enough people put their money into the investment society, everyone in it will be well off. The group pays more money in trading fees than they do in losses because the person who runs it is a professional. It's best to join if you have lots of money but anyone can join it.

China is becoming a superpower because they keep buying loads of US currency and selling it for a cheap price, undercutting it, so that the richest country in the world loses money, and there's nothing they can do about it. Also China has much lower debts.

Because the government keeps printing more money devaluing the currency so people's spending power is less, the minimum wage is much less than what it was in the 1960s, so people can't spend as much, so the economy does worse. The reason why the government keeps printing more money which is thievery, is to pay off debts and inconspicuously increase taxes without people noticing as the percentage you pay stays the same.

Question: Why do we have inflation?
OK, so the cost of living keeps going up, and then your employer will give you a pay rise every so often to keep up with the cost of living. Why do they do that? Why not just leave all the prices as they are, then leave wages as they are?

Answer
Because the banks are releasing more money into circulation than they should. And then there is very well concealed reason behind it and that is to increase taxes without people complaining. Money that are issued as a loan by banks for example actually have no real value when issued. Only way the money can get a real value is if they are covered by actual work. So people have to work to pay them back and create the value of money that they borrowed. But when banks inject money into market that are not covered, suddenly people have higher buying power with no work behind them. And if the people have higher buying power with no effort at all, suppliers must counter this by increasing their prices so they make the same amount of money than before. Else they would not be profitable And thus inflation is born.

And then there is the tax issue with inflation. If you get raise of 20% by inflation the problem that arises with this raise is the fact that you actually have same amount of money as before the inflation, but the tax base increases. So let's say your standard payout is 100$ for ease of our math. If you the say the tax was 20% then you would pay 20$ tax. Now imagine you get raise because we have inflation. The raise is 30%. So you now make 130$. But the income tax you pay now is 26$. Some people may now say that the tax is the same as before. That is true, but all prices rise because of inflation and in the end you have marginaly less buying power than before. It is so small difference that you won't even notice. But add 30 years to that and the difference will show. But then it will be too late.

https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110423044406AAOeI3g

So if people's spending power is less and more of their money is going to the government, that's less money for corporations. The private sector creates wealth and the public sector destroys wealth, and they're destroying more wealth every day. The only reason why the rich is getting "richer" is because they're stealing market share from the middle class.

When the industrial revolution happened, billions of poor people were lifted out of poverty thanks to trains and cars to get to work, advances in agriculture and computer technology. People got rich due to innovation and people collectively increasing their intelligence. Now what we're seeing is a new type of capitalism where money is shifted from the poor and middle class to the rich.

In the 90s Kodak was the biggest technology company with hundreds of employees, but now Instagram gets acquired for 1 billion despite having 13 employees.
In the 90s people brought music and record labels would pay bands to go on tour as sales were so high, but now we have Spotify which pays people hardly anything giving all music for $10 a month.
America used to have hundreds of media companies on tv, radio and magazines, but now it's just six.

I'm questioning whether this news matters as the successful traders will still be successful traders and the rich will still be rich. Same shit different day.

What we're seeing is the end stages of capitalism, where it's like crabs in a bucket, they pull the other one down when one tries to escape, that type of cannibalism. The rich know all this, that this growth cannot realistically go on forever but they're trying to prolong it for as long as they can by cutting wages, jobs, work conditions while snapping up smaller companies buying them out and expanding into new markets with aggressive marketing campaigns.
 

Fast Eddie

Pelican
Gold Member
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Dan Woolf said:
So, they are saying that the euro might collapse in the next few weeks. What should I do with my cash savings that are in euros?

That obviously depends whether you believe what "they" are saying. If you do believe it, then you should obviously cash out your Euro position. You can do that either the old fashioned way by going to a currency exchange and buying physical USD or by opening up an account with a forex broker and going short Euro. With the latter option, you will be getting a far better spread and will not be paying commission. Furthermore, if you're so confident that the Euro is going to collapse within a matter of weeks, you can leverage up 100x and become a millionaire when the "collapse" occurs.

Now, is the Euro actually going to collapse in the next few weeks? Nobody knows, least of all those who would go out of their way to tell you. The safe answer though is "no."
 

The Beast1

Peacock
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Dan Woolf said:
So, they are saying that the euro might collapse in the next few weeks. What should I do with my cash savings that are in euros?

You could open an account with xe.com and convert your EURs to USDs. That would be a cheap way of safely protecting your wealth.

Or you could open a FOREX account and short the euro.

However, i'm more curious where you heard about this information. Can you shed some light on this position?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

  • Convert to a USD cash position
  • Buy USD denominated equities
  • Trade into the DAX or German Bonds. A lot of institutional money is doing this because they believe that, in the event of a Euro breakup, they will be paid out in Marks.
  • Look at metals. The bearish trend relative to USD is flipped for the Euro, and metals are bullish vs. EUD.
 

HighSpeed_LowDrag

Ostrich
Gold Member
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

If you're willing to look at exchange-traded finds and not just stocks, try UUP - it's a fund that tracks the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies.
 

HighSpeed_LowDrag

Ostrich
Gold Member
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Bump for relevance.

We are now on Federal Reserve Watch - 72 hours away from the decision by the FOMC on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate off the 0.00-0.25% bound, and thereby end eight years of NIRP.

Asian stock markets are already significantly down - this after a week of selloffs across all global financial markets. It's likely that the next few days will see some significant volatility. Expect to see lots of red and financial people panicking.

What do you guys think will happen? Will a last-minute market tantrum stop Yellen?
 

Mike5055

Kingfisher
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Pretty much nothing will stop it. The last job report gave them the green light and they're confident that inflation will head to 2%. Expect liftoff.
 

Dallas Winston

Ostrich
Gold Member
RE: Global finance markets declining (August 2015)

Rate hikes are probably priced in - either for this week or happening within the next quarter or so. It's even possible a slight rate hike could be viewed positively by the markets.

I think the volatility we're seeing now is a continuation of the big correction that started earlier this year. We are way off the lows of that. The market seems to be working out the correction in a sideways pattern now. It went up strong for a bit recently, then hit old highs and now is going down. It is kind of grinding out a sideways pattern.

It seems to be forming the "handle" part of a cup and handle for those who follow technical analysis. All in all, it seems to be forming, so far, a healthy and expected looking "left side". I look for this sideways ( up to old highs and then correcting a bit ) to go on for sometime. It's very similar to the corrections of 1998, 2010 and 2011 if you're a chartist and care to check those out.

After the grinding sideways pattern, I look for and am hopeful for a breakout to the upside by the markets. Time will, of course, tell.
 

thoughtgypsy

Kingfisher
Gold Member
I'm in the bear camp, so take this speculation with a grain of salt. I don't think the markets can handle any sizable rate hike. Sovereign and corporate debt is too high, and a rise in interest rates will make the interest on debt repayments push deficits exponentially higher.

Corporate debt has expanded dramatically in the last 7 years. Many bulls will say everything is fine, because the price to earnings ratio isn't in bubble territory yet. But if you look at where the debt has done, it paints another story. A majority has gone into stock buybacks to push down their PE ratios, not into productive investment like CAPEX. It's all papering over the potemkin village. When interest rates rise and risk is priced in, the house of cards will inevitably fall.

Asset values have been predicated on a secular decline in debt costs. They roll over existing debt, take on more, and the repayment cost stays the same. We're now at the zero bound and debt is free. This is the final act. Debts will have to be repaid eventually. I expect to see a rise in insolvencies and restructurings in the near future.

picf2e5db18c18c2be3e682ca6aa5c1650a.PNG


We're already seeing deflation in commodities. Oil has been low for close to a year, and the Bakken dry index point to a vaccuum of demand. This holiday season's retail figures have been anemic. This is often the first sign of recession. A rise in mandatory expenses like Obamacare have helped to hide the decline in real economic output.

There has been no material recovery since the last recession. The jobs that we've added are mostly part-time retail and food sector jobs. Millions of prime working age (25-54 cohort) have left the labor force because they gave up looking for a job. Companies have been cutting jobs and cutting costs. Investment has piled mostly into rent-seeking asset accumulation, driving up the cost of rent and food but making the FIRE class rich. Wealth inequality has skyrocketed, and can only go on for so long. Eventually, the people whose jobs have been cut and rent has been raised won't be able to afford the discretionary spending the FIRE class depends on. We're in the 'busting out' phase of the economy.

The FED has prevented the free market from pricing in the real risk of debt. This has made investing child's play for the last 7 years. "Don't fight the FED". But they are backed into a corner now. Asset values are elevated, and their credibility is at stake. If there were a major correction that happened while the fed funds rate was at emergency levels, it would show the FED to be powerless and undermine the credibility of central banks worldwide. They said they would raise rates if their 'data dependent' approach reached the figures we're at today. I think their plan is to raise rates modestly, let the market correct, then lower them back to 0% and begin a new round of QE.

Another reason they're hand will be forced: pension and insurance funds. The solvency of these funds are predicated on a normal risk and yield structure. This allows for the capital gains to grow in time in order to payout retirees or claimants. The flattening of the yield curve has pushed these funds into massive deficits. Insurance companies can raise rates, but municipalities can't without political backlash. We've already seen rumblings of this in Stockton, Harrisburg, Detroit, and now Chicago. Expect to see more of this.

Something big is coming. I don't know about you, but I'm adding to my shorts.
 

Steve Evets

Kingfisher
Other Christian
Yeah people should understand that there is a distinction between how policy affects a bubble economy and a more sustainable one.

The US economy as it stands is a bubble economy wholly dependent on Fed largesse. Since Dec 2013, the Fed has slowed down its rate of stimulus, and since Oct 2014 it has been sitting on its hands basically. It's no coincidence that from those dates, many economic indicators are rolling over, flirting with recessionary levels. Global stock markets made their highs in May 2015, and the Nasdaq is the only major index in the world which has made a new high since.

A Fed that hikes rates in this environment is going to take the life that they gave to the bubble economy in 2009, but is exactly what the sustainable economy needs. The thing is the Fed, even though it probably doesn't want to, HAS to put a rate hike on the record for purely academic reasons. It has to prove that the bubble economy is in fact real and that it can stand on its own two feet without the Fed propping it up. The academics that run the Fed are working from a theory that states that they can mitigate recessions through monetary policy, then back out when the storm has passed. If they can never back out, the whole theory is rendered useless, as well as the 30+ year academic and professional careers of many of these people.

I personally think that they'll raise rates, for that reason, but even if they don't merely sitting on their hands won't be enough to prevent another severe recession. The only thing that will take the economy and global stock markets materially higher again is another bout of QE. Should that happen, it would be a stark admission that the economy can't stand on its own two feet, and cast a dour outlook over the fate of most of the G7 currencies.
 

Dallas Winston

Ostrich
Gold Member
^ Good post TG and all true. It seems the piper must be paid at some point, but I think it's further off.

As a great investor once said: "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
 

Slim Shady

 
Banned
Gold Member
I will tell you what is going to happen, taking into macroeconomic and political realities. With the Fed Funds hike coming, as well as an increase in the debt ceiling coming, which will result in an increase in public debt, you will essentially see a downturn in the Chinese market. The SSE [Shanghai Stock Exchange] will go down or crash. You want to look at sectors that are negatively correlated with the SSE to see where the market will go up or down.

Sectors that are in the long term going to go up: Energy [Oil, Coal, Natural Gas]

Going down: Healthcare, Toys/Video Games

Energy will go down a little further in the short term, but it will soon rise fast. Places like Blackstone Group are holding cash and not investing in oil yet for a reason, but soon oil will reach it's minimum. OPEC policies are going to change again, fracking technology betterment will result in rising stock. Chevron, Exxon, and Peabody Coal are great stocks to have.

Healthcare: Obamacare will collapse. More patients also means more payouts to be made by insurance companies. Short healthcare: CVS Healthcare, UnitedHealth, are good ones.

Games: Hasbro is one to short. Mattel, on the other hand, which has moved production from China to India, will be going up. EA games will go down.

I have an Index model that I have made that uses the Wilshire5000 as an interaction variable to the SSE and uses various macroeconomic betas [public debt, fed funds, etc] to make predictions on the closing numbers of the SSE. They are bad. Enjoy the low gas prices. Invest in commodities!

-I have actual numbers, equations, graphs, excel files, regressions that I have made...
 

samsamsam

Peacock
Gold Member
So anyone recommend a good etf if I don't want to figure out shorting?

Someone was nice enough to recommend UltraShort S&P500 - SDS which I used on my Robinhood account. Just wondering if there were some other options.

Thanks.
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
I have no data only gut instinct. I have been investing on and off for 10 years.

These last couple months have felt strange. Just what seems like a lack of confidence in everything.

I think this market is sitting on a half inch of ice. It feels like any big tremors and it is go time.

I should have sold off in summer like I knew to, got cocky. When the correction hit my ratcheted stops got hit so I gained less than I should have.

I am on TEAM BEAR CAMP.

I bought $500 of Shell based on BIG IN TOKYO's recommendation for 8% dividend and oil bottoming out now for kicks. Feels like we were in a storm in the early Fall and we are about to go into a bigger one.
 

Brodiaga

Ostrich
Gold Member
Today, I bought a few thousand dollars' worth of Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

It's a long term play. I realize the price may go down, probably a lot, within the next few months, but I believe it will be more expensive say 5-10 years from now. International indexes are much cheaper than US (in terms of P/E ratios) thanks to favorable exchange rates and overall decline in prices.
 

Mr. Brightside

Robin
Gold Member
Great information, everybody. As somebody who has a decent layman's knowledge of the economy but is looking to have a much firmer grasp, how do you recommend going about this?

As for the decline in the financial markets: How do you protect yourself from this or even take advantage of it?
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
For a layman there is Shorting ETF's of the entire market so you don't need to pick individual stocks for the way down.

Otherwise you can have cash on the sidelines ready to buy in at the bottom. Also you may do some side stocks that have good dividends that otherwise may be hurt less by a crash, such as some oil stocks right now.

If you want to get more risky at the bottom you can buy 2x and 3x index ETFs right at the bottom to catch the way up once you feel certain the bottom has hit.

Again this advice is layman to layman (for people that don't have the will to follow individual sectors and stocks).
 

HighSpeed_LowDrag

Ostrich
Gold Member
Travesty said:
If you want to get more risky at the bottom you can buy 2x and 3x index ETFs right at the bottom to catch the way up once you feel certain the bottom has hit.

Unless you are daytrading (holding your position for less than one trading session), experienced in same, and know what you're doing, stay away from inverse leveraged ETFs. They have the potential to go extremely bad for any trader - especially in markets like these where there exists more than a little in the way of market manipulation. Trust me, I've been burned by these before.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top