insure yourself against a number of disastrous outcomes, rather than to merely invest in the hopes of earning a substantial return.
I know you're a smart guy with some strong opinions. I don't have the patience to condense down my experiences into the perfect post or to engage in semantics/debate-style rhetoric so I will speak plainly.
I have tripled my net-worth over the last few years with a cyclicals and commodities-based investment strategy. I believe this is more than a substantial return on investment and it is not just a futile hope as it has already played out in reality. Based on ratio analysis and the direction of interest-rate/currency levers there seems to be disproportionate upside to these investment (multi-baggers) in the years to come if the thesis plays out. I say if, because none of us have a crystal ball. We don't know which political or economic factors will spike gold/commodities. We may assume that there are some mechanisms around super-powers and the developing world which affect commodity prices, but, end of day, it is just another lens to view a complex system of relationships that is based on semi-irrational human actors which are beyond our capability to predict perfectly. I would down-play political events, news, or great reset-type predictions as the basis of an investment strategy. If we discern that we are more likely to be correct than incorrect, and that there is significant upside relative (at-least 3x) to the downside (losing all invested assets), it's up to us to "size the pot" and to determine what is the appropriately sized investment for our lifestyle and goals. Once again, it's important that we remain humble in making this decision and in forming our predictions. Investment is a probabilistic game and not a certainty.
This is another more philosophical point, but I think that having an "insurance" based mindset may be a trap. There is no real insurance whether that is the SP500, physical gold, blue-chip stocks, crypto, etc. For example, if at best we may guess at a 5% return in the SP500 over the next 10 years with a 50% potential downside, the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Many people have lost everything betting on "sure-bet" blue-chip stocks like Sears/big banks which no longer exist. Gold is no exception to this rule and there is a chance that we have a "dollar milk-shake" event, black-swan event, or are misunderstanding of macro and the investment-thesis fails.
I interpret the
Parable of the Talents to be more spiritual in context as Fr. Spyridon explains, but the underlying financial advice is good. Dare to take the optimistic bet for the outsized-return. Don't bury your money in the ground out of fear and guarantee a mediocre result. If the US government and central planners really want to take your gold, they will kick your door down, shoot you, and take it. We don't really need money to survive or to thrive in the spiritual-life. All of our money may be useless tomorrow, anyway. It's in that liberating realization that we can take bold bets without fear.
My goal is not to persuade anyone to my viewpoint or to be right, but hopefully taking what I've said holistically can add another lens of analysis to someone. These concepts have helped me and I hope some kernel in here can help you all too.
