Gold Investment Thread

[ivalyosha]

If you don’t hold it you don’t own it.

True but it's not that simple if you live in a country that will seize your gold (e.g. Executive Order 6102 by FDR in the US).

I think the ideal setup could be a mix of gold you personally hold and some offshore in case your government comes after your physical holdings.

Also if you have to flee your country, border agents could seize the gold you have on your person. If you have it offshore in a safe jurisdiction, you're better protected from that.

 

[chance vought]

It depends on why you want to own gold.
1. Is it a store of value as money is debased gradually as it has for the last 50 years?

2. Or is it a hedge against economic collapse, death of fiat.

It works fine with a "trusted" 3rd party in the first scenario, but it does not work in the second.

If society stops functioning because the ponzi collapses, do you ever see that gold in a vault somewhere? If the custodian doesn't take it, the governments that these places reside in will take it when they need it "for the greater good".

"it's just a few rich foreigner's gold, and people are starving! We have to take this gold, but we will pay you for it with this valuable paper."

 

[Blade Runner]

Haha, yes. Will gold stocks even hold here? It seems like the contracting money supply with QT and rates being hiked, means less money will go into them - though you could argue that they'll get play since the market is so clearly going to dive.

 

[Cynllo]

Has anyone purchased and stored gold with an offshore provider like Bullion Star? They're based in Singapore and look very legit. They store the gold for you in your name in their Singapore vault or you can take possession directly by visiting the vault or asking them to ship it to you.

It seems like a good compromise between the risks of holding physical gold yourself and buying paper gold through ETFs.

I'm in Western Europe and I don't trust the EU to protect my property rights long term considering the immense debts and economic problems Europe will have to contend with. I trust Singapore a lot more with my gold.

Buy Gold & Silver Bullion Bars & Coins in Singapore | BullionStar

Buy and Sell Gold & Silver Bullion with BullionStar - Guaranteed Best Prices for Bars & Coins in Singapore | Precious Metals Storage in a Vault | Retail Shop in CBD

www.bullionstar.com

You'd have to think that Singapore is one of the safest places. SG is the centre of Sino-Victorian conservatism. They have very solid banks with very high capital reserves of about 70%, compared to the 10-15% you will find in the West. Very high trust society, everything is done very properly and thoroughly. Bad actors are punished and socially shamed.

But I think the purpose of holding gold is really - to mitigate being blocked from commerce and considerable social-economic upheaval. If the entire system goes (water, electricity, police etc) then I'd say gold is pretty worthless. If it's ruffled by economic turmoil then gold should have some considerable upside at some point, before coming back to reality. There is no logical point in holding large amounts of gold for any period of time. It's something you can go in and out of at opportune, fairly obvious junctures. <= 30 RSI on 1M gold is your buy. Getting out harder to gauge. That gives you a window in all of the great times to buy gold.

So there is only really two places I'd like to hold gold - 1) at home; 2) in something I can sell quickly in brokerage. In the case of 2) I am only intending to buy in a low and sell at a high. I don't get DCA-ing into gold, as you can tell when it's pretty well valued - now. If it was back when gold was $1,050-1,300 then it makes sense. There are, of course, wild cards, like some BRICS currency that has some gold backing.

Gold is a religion for many. It's just buy gold, hope central banks buy gold, hope central banks back paper with gold. More sensibly it is bought at strategic moments. There is a good system I saw of a guy who periodically rotates from stocks to gold based one one very reliable indicator. Quite a nice hands off system, until something goes clunk. That's how I work - from reliable indicators that only pop up over longer-ranges of time.

Over the last few months I have been itching to get some stocks and PM-related assets. I feel it's something I should be in to have a broad protfolio. Though I am very much in the mould of a Doug Cassey crisis investor, and not ideological and hung-up on one (class of) asset(s). There is only one motive - buy as low as possible and sell as high as possible. It doesn't matter what it is. Right now PMs are nowhere near crisis. I could buy in and take many years to get back to the same point I buy.

After a lot of research I could barely see anything I feel very safe in buying, so I placed some shorts of the Russell 2000 and a few other vulnerable sectors. Seems to be coming good, as I believe FED hiked something like 0.3% last night. I also bought some silver ETF, miners I think. As it seemed that was something that could have a good year due to shortages and be a bit of a hedge on my shorts. But these are shots in the wind I have little conviction in.

But after some time thinking, I have decided to abandon any more thoughts of stock, PM buying until they hit obviously undervalued levels. And that may very well be years. Meanwhile crypto was in it's absolute prime buying spot in January. After a rally it's pulling back and I am ferociously buying more. I have my crypto buying strategy, which has worked very well. You could just buy blindly in January every four years* and would have been so far ahead of any PM, stock, that you wouldn't have any need to consider thinking about trying to gauge and time these highly rigged and propped up markets.

If you have been buying PMs for some time and treading water, now is the time to move your DCA or whatever you do to a brief lull in the crypto spring.

 

[ivalyosha]

It depends on why you want to own gold.
1. Is it a store of value as money is debased gradually as it has for the last 50 years?

2. Or is it a hedge against economic collapse, death of fiat.

It works fine with a "trusted" 3rd party in the first scenario, but it does not work in the second.

If society stops functioning because the ponzi collapses, do you ever see that gold in a vault somewhere? If the custodian doesn't take it, the governments that these places reside in will take it when they need it "for the greater good".

"it's just a few rich foreigner's gold, and people are starving! We have to take this gold, but we will pay you for it with this valuable paper."

Depending on the jurisdiction, someone can still be protected under the second scenario. Western society is in a much more precarious position than Singapore. The West's Ponzi will certainly fall but Singapore is much more stable.

Singapore is rich and has become arguably the most important financial center in Asia, an up and coming region. Wealthy people across Asia and increasingly non-Asians are storing wealth there. Singapore doesn't need to steal and ruin their excellent reputation to feed themselves like the West will have to do.

A Westerner can possibly mitigate some of their political risk by storing assets in Singapore. Wealthy people throughout history did exactly this in Switzerland during times of chaos. The key is picking a place with a very strong reputation for property laws and somewhere rich people have been parking their money. Singapore may be that place more so than even Switzerland.

Of course all this is a game of probability. There is no scenario where your wealth is 100% safe.

 

[zoom]

Has anyone purchased and stored gold with an offshore provider like Bullion Star? They're based in Singapore and look very legit. They store the gold for you in your name in their Singapore vault or you can take possession directly by visiting the vault or asking them to ship it to you.

You're likely better off storing gold with a publicly traded company like Brinks. This is because you can look at their reported balance sheet and financials to see how good of shape the company is in.

 

[ivalyosha]

You'd have to think that Singapore is one of the safest places. SG is the centre of Sino-Victorian conservatism. They have very solid banks with very high capital reserves of about 70%, compared to the 10-15% you will find in the West. Very high trust society, everything is done very properly and thoroughly. Bad actors are punished and socially shamed.

But I think the purpose of holding gold is really - to mitigate being blocked from commerce and considerable social-economic upheaval. If the entire system goes (water, electricity, police etc) then I'd say gold is pretty worthless. If it's ruffled by economic turmoil then gold should have some considerable upside at some point, before coming back to reality. There is no logical point in holding large amounts of gold for any period of time. It's something you can go in and out of at opportune, fairly obvious junctures. <= 30 RSI on 1M gold is your buy. Getting out harder to gauge. That gives you a window in all of the great times to buy gold.

So there is only really two places I'd like to hold gold - 1) at home; 2) in something I can sell quickly in brokerage. In the case of 2) I am only intending to buy in a low and sell at a high. I don't get DCA-ing into gold, as you can tell when it's pretty well valued - now. If it was back when gold was $1,050-1,300 then it makes sense. There are, of course, wild cards, like some BRICS currency that has some gold backing.

Gold is a religion for many. It's just buy gold, hope central banks buy gold, hope central banks back paper with gold. More sensibly it is bought at strategic moments. There is a good system I saw of a guy who periodically rotates from stocks to gold based one one very reliable indicator. Quite a nice hands off system, until something goes clunk. That's how I work - from reliable indicators that only pop up over longer-ranges of time.

Over the last few months I have been itching to get some stocks and PM-related assets. I feel it's something I should be in to have a broad protfolio. Though I am very much in the mould of a Doug Cassey crisis investor, and not ideological and hung-up on one (class of) asset(s). There is only one motive - buy as low as possible and sell as high as possible. It doesn't matter what it is. Right now PMs are nowhere near crisis. I could buy in and take many years to get back to the same point I buy.

After a lot of research I could barely see anything I feel very safe in buying, so I placed some shorts of the Russell 2000 and a few other vulnerable sectors. Seems to be coming good, as I believe FED hiked something like 0.3% last night. I also bought some silver ETF, miners I think. As it seemed that was something that could have a good year due to shortages and be a bit of a hedge on my shorts. But these are shots in the wind I have little conviction in.

But after some time thinking, I have decided to abandon any more thoughts of stock, PM buying until they hit obviously undervalued levels. And that may very well be years. Meanwhile crypto was in it's absolute prime buying spot in January. After a rally it's pulling back and I am ferociously buying more. I have my crypto buying strategy, which has worked very well. You could just buy blindly in January every four years* and would have been so far ahead of any PM, stock, that you wouldn't have any need to consider thinking about trying to gauge and time these highly rigged and propped up markets.

If you have been buying PMs for some time and treading water, now is the time to move your DCA or whatever you do to a brief lull in the crypto spring.

I'd say the main reason to hold gold is to protect against inflation. It's been used as a money for 5000 years while thousands of government currencies died along the way. The dollar, pound, and euro will meet the same fate and gold will live on.

Western governments are deeply underwater in debt. They only have 2 paths out: inflation and taxation. The coming decade will see governments getting more and more aggressive on these fronts. Their free debt party is nearly over.

Gold definitely protects against inflation and if you store your gold out of reach of your government, it also protects against taxation and asset seizure ala Executive Order 6102.

I buy Bitcoin for the same reason.

 

[ivalyosha]

You're likely better off storing gold with a publicly traded company like Brinks. This is because you can look at their reported balance sheet and financials to see how good of shape the company is in.

Fair point but where is Brinks based? If it's a Western woke democracy, the government can and will come after assets held with them.

Edit: Here's the reality in the West. Property means nothing to these countries anymore.

FBI wants to keep fortune in cash, gold, jewels from Beverly Hills raid. Is it abuse of power?

Customers of U.S. Private Vaults are suing the FBI over its attempt to confiscate gold and silver, jewelry and $86 million in cash from safe deposit boxes.

www.latimes.com

 

[Cynllo]

I'd say the main reason to hold gold is to protect against inflation. It's been used as a money for 5000 years while thousands of government currencies died along the way. The dollar, pound, and euro will meet the same fate and gold will live on.

Western governments are deeply underwater in debt. They only have 2 paths out: inflation and taxation. The coming decade will see governments getting more and more aggressive on these fronts. Their free debt party is nearly over.

Gold definitely protects against inflation and if you store your gold out of reach of your government, it also protects against taxation and asset seizure ala Executive Order 6102.

I buy Bitcoin for the same reason.

My guess is it's not really an averse event for the system that these countries are so indebted with no way out. Japan shows that another 20 years of this decline is feasible with rope left.

The current situation seems quite desirable for the forces that are in control.

1) housing probably more unaffordable now than pre-COIVD due to increase in rates. I imagine the lifetime cost of a house is now double the sale price with mortgages
2) inflation peeling away the more frugal and mindful's cash savings
3) government debt will be rolled up and hung round citizen's necks
4) it's been 15 years since plebs last has a solid stock entry point

This is all in line with Great Reset/Agenda 2030 etc. goals.

When gold was $1,630 it was a fairly solid bet against inflation. Now, it's questionable. It's going to be up near $2,000 to beat inflation. While crypto seems a solid bet. Crypto is more or less the only thing you can buy right now that is not held at artificially high prices.

 

[zoom]

Fair point but where is Brinks based? If it's a Western woke democracy, the government can and will come after assets held with them.

Edit: Here's the reality in the West. Property means nothing to these countries anymore.

FBI wants to keep fortune in cash, gold, jewels from Beverly Hills raid. Is it abuse of power?

Customers of U.S. Private Vaults are suing the FBI over its attempt to confiscate gold and silver, jewelry and $86 million in cash from safe deposit boxes.

www.latimes.com

Brinks is based in Virginia, USA. However they claim to have vaults around the world.

"Our vaulting facilities are built to provide you with state‑of‑the‑art precious metals storage services, including primary dedicated pick‑and‑pack and storage operations around the world."

https://us.brinks.com/private-individual-storage

I don't use them personally but they seem like a solid option for what you're seeking.

 

[aeroektar]

To the guys considering storing gold offshore in Singapore or with a company like brinks because of fear that someone might try to take it. Why not just hide it? It's not like gold takes up a lot of space or is heavy, lots of possibilities.

 

[ivalyosha]

To the guys considering storing gold offshore in Singapore or with a company like brinks because of fear that someone might try to take it. Why not just hide it? It's not like gold takes up a lot of space or is heavy, lots of possibilities.

Sure that's a valid option but it has trade offs like everything else.

1. Someone can find your hiding spot and take it. Weeks might go by before you even know it's gone.
2. It doesn't solve the problem of getting the gold out of your country if you need to flee for whatever reason.

Ultimately, I think a gold investor should diversify how they store gold because there is not a perfect solution. Every solution has trade offs you must be willing to accept. By diversifying your storage methods, you help prevent the worst case scenario of losing it all.

Offshore storage in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore is by no means perfect but it protects you from your own government and makes it easier to access a gold stash if you have to flee your country and can't take your local stash.

Cops at land and air borders will be checking people leaving with valuables like gold during a societal collapse event. Capital controls are common and you're very likely to lose your gold in this scenario. It doesn't mean you don't try. But have a backup stash outside the country.

 

[Blade Runner]

Japan shows that another 20 years of this decline is feasible with rope left.

Much of what you say is true, but Japan wasn't a grand player in the geopolitical game, and their troubles started 20 years before any of this generational and fiat crises did for every other boomer and older nation obsessed with ponzi schemes. What's more? The elite weren't talking directly to our faces about what they are doing, and about to do, in short order.

 

[ivalyosha]

Japan is also America's closest ally in Asia. America, while strong, is incentivized to prop up Japan as much as possible. In a world where America's empire is declining, what happens to all these heavily indebted Western countries + Japan (geopolitically a Western country)?

Taxation and inflation are the clearest paths for them to deal with their debts. The third option is conquering new markets and extracting the wealth. This is what they hope to do with Russia. I doubt they have the military strength to do this anymore so they will turn against their own citizens and pilfer them with taxes and inflation.

Well secured gold, silver, and bitcoin are crucial in protecting you and your families from the coming financial repression.

 

[Road2Damascus]

Hold gold yourself. The best offshore solution in my opinion is to keep it in another country with a trusted family member. But I don't think the gov is going to go confiscate gold again, good luck with that with all the weapons in this country and no trust in the system anymore.

The worries are overstated except for very few people, like ones who get put on a sanction list, or are being watched by the feds because they are using gold to launder lots of money.

 

[Cynllo]

Sure that's a valid option but it has trade offs like everything else.

1. Someone can find your hiding spot and take it. Weeks might go by before you even know it's gone.
2. It doesn't solve the problem of getting the gold out of your country if you need to flee for whatever reason.

Ultimately, I think a gold investor should diversify how they store gold because there is not a perfect solution. Every solution has trade offs you must be willing to accept. By diversifying your storage methods, you help prevent the worst case scenario of losing it all.

Offshore storage in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore is by no means perfect but it protects you from your own government and makes it easier to access a gold stash if you have to flee your country and can't take your local stash.

Cops at land and air borders will be checking people leaving with valuables like gold during a societal collapse event. Capital controls are common and you're very likely to lose your gold in this scenario. It doesn't mean you don't try. But have a backup stash outside the country.

With such thoughts in mind, it's worth looking at what people are doing right now to get their wealth out of one country and into another.

People who need to get cash out of one jurisdiction and into another are using crypto. Who knows how many billions were exchanged last year from Russians (in crypto) -

Russians Looking to the UAE to Unload Billions in Crypto Assets: Report

Other Russians are reportedly looking to use their crypto to invest in property in the UAE.

www.coindesk.com

No one was thinking of using gold. Sanctions have been more or less useless at stopping 2 million people maintaining a life outside of the mainstream dollar system.

As you note, you can hold PMs and related stocks in various locations. This isn't really a thought with crypto. With what we know about what is planned, the benefits of PMs are much less than crypto. I only see two methods of keeping them - buying miners in a bear market and holding them to sell in a bull market; and holding them in a safe bolted into the ground in your property.

You can earn yield on USD-Gold, which I think is a nice position to hold if gold is quite high, but you are nervous about holding fiat -

https://defillama.com/yields?token=PAXG

People can make their criticisms of crypto. But the total (at occurrence) losses of centralised usury-based crypto entities is in the tens of billions. In the wild west of sometimes anonymously operated decentralised platforms, there has only been LUNA. Throw on top of that what's going on with legacy usury systems like at SVB. We know that at any time there could be a crisis due to liquidity drying up, and ultimately our assets could shrink or disappear.

 

[Eusebius Erasmus]

I'd say the main reason to hold gold is to protect against inflation. It's been used as a money for 5000 years while thousands of government currencies died along the way. The dollar, pound, and euro will meet the same fate and gold will live on.

Western governments are deeply underwater in debt. They only have 2 paths out: inflation and taxation. The coming decade will see governments getting more and more aggressive on these fronts. Their free debt party is nearly over.

Gold definitely protects against inflation and if you store your gold out of reach of your government, it also protects against taxation and asset seizure ala Executive Order 6102.

I buy Bitcoin for the same reason.

Gold is a long-term hedge against inflation, although its short-term performance against inflation is so-so.

In the short-term, gold is a hedge against financial and economic collapse.

The problem with Bitcoin, as far as I can see, is that government controls and can monitor the on-ramps and off-ramps -- how you get your cash in and out of BTC. This affects liquidity, especially since Bitcoin's volume is low compared to many other asset classes.

Another issue is that in the future, governments will implement KYC legislation. So you won't be able to use the internet without the government knowing about it. This limits Bitcoin's uses.

They saw Bitcoin as a threat, and were successfully able to crack down upon it.

 

[ivalyosha]

Gold is a long-term hedge against inflation, although its short-term performance against inflation is so-so.

In the short-term, gold is a hedge against financial and economic collapse.

The problem with Bitcoin, as far as I can see, is that government controls and can monitor the on-ramps and off-ramps -- how you get your cash in and out of BTC. This affects liquidity, especially since Bitcoin's volume is low compared to many other asset classes.

Another issue is that in the future, governments will implement KYC legislation. So you won't be able to use the internet without the government knowing about it. This limits Bitcoin's uses.

They saw Bitcoin as a threat, and were successfully able to crack down upon it.

Good points. Although I disagree they've successfully cracked down on Bitcoin. Look at China who banned Bitcoin mining and yet lots of the hash rate is still coming from China. I suspect the West will have similar challenges eradicating Bitcoin.

Blocking the fiat ramps to Bitcoin is easier for them. That's why now is a good time to stack. But even in this future scenario, you'll be able to procure Bitcoin locally through trade and work.

 

[Eusebius Erasmus]

Good points. Although I disagree they've successfully cracked down on Bitcoin. Look at China who banned Bitcoin mining and yet lots of the hash rate is still coming from China. I suspect the West will have similar challenges eradicating Bitcoin.

Blocking the fiat ramps to Bitcoin is easier for them. That's why now is a good time to stack. But even in this future scenario, you'll be able to procure Bitcoin locally through trade and work.

I agree. However, the claim that BTC will turn into a good store-of-value depends on BTC achieving a sizeable volume of transactions.

That is unlikely to happen if the government cracks down on fiat ramps - fewer and fewer people will be incentivized to exchange their fiat for BTC and trade with BTC. The recent Crypto Winter events and Fed rate hikes aren't doing any favours.

Anyway, just my take. I don't want to derail the topic, which is gold

 

[Blade Runner]

I agree. However, the claim that BTC will turn into a good store-of-value depends on BTC achieving a sizeable volume of transactions.

That is unlikely to happen if the government cracks down on fiat ramps - fewer and fewer people will be incentivized to exchange their fiat for BTC and trade with BTC. The recent Crypto Winter events and Fed rate hikes aren't doing any favours.

Anyway, just my take. I don't want to derail the topic, which is gold

What is your off ramp for gold?

When the banks have more and more problems, don't gold and BTC do well, but the latter being transferable/portable makes it much more realistic to use in the modern day?