Gold, Silver and Bitcoin prices are skyrocketing (fiat currency collapsing?)... is this it? (Aug 2020)

PixelFree

Kingfisher
There have been some massive gains in Gold and Silver recently with very low to no physical in stock anywhere in Australia.

Gold has cracked $2,000 USD for the first time ever.

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Silver has almost doubled since April.

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Bitcoin has grown from $10k AUD to $16.5k AUD in the last few months (although it has always been very volatile).

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From https://usdebtclock.org/

Is this the main event, or just a dress rehearsal and things will pull back (and be smashed down with paper contracts)?

I wonder if they have lost their ability to manipulate the market.

Man... I wish I bought... :sad:
 

EndlessGravity

Woodpecker
It's my belief that these are signs another severe financial contraction is about to make another wave. That and the yield curve along with dollar vs... many other currencies. Not looking good.

Not to gloat but I'm glad I stack. Save your cash though because you're probably going to need it.
 

Arado

Pelican
Gold Member
Anyone here have good options strategies to take advantage in case we get the currency collapse in the near future (metals and crypto) but still hedged in case there's another major selloff and metals/crypto take a hit like in March to cover margin calls?
 
It's a perfect storm and the government keeps dousing the flames with gasoline I can't quite seem to understand why they are doing it. I can understand QE, I just don't get the logic of government shutting everything down and putting themselves further into a position where more stimulus is needed. Are they trying to make gold and crypto bugs rich?

There's too much chaos happening and I believe they have finally lost the power to crush prices with paper contracts. Gold cracking all time highs is a sign of this. The fact that people can't get their hands on physical gold is another. Most hilariously, banks have now been approved to be custodians of people's crypto so they may inevitably confiscate it for the Greater Good of the country.

Like I've said many times over the years - it is fiat monetary system that is The Bubble. And now it's popping.
 

Jestx

Robin
Gold taking a nosedive today but a correction seemed bound to happen in PMs since the run up recently. Will look to buy more if the prices continue downward.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
My take for some time is that we would have a financial crash cira 2020, that would take, say the US, up to about 130% debt to GDP. That is where Italy has been for the last ten years. This would be followed by about ten hard years where most people not in the top 10% would have even heavier downward pressures than since 2008. By the time another crash comes in cira 2030 The US would probably be towards 160-170%.

However it's 2020 and this cycle's crash (which is inevitable) hasn't hit yet and we already have the amount of debt and easy money we could have expected at it's end, plus on track for a 15% decline in GDP, dampened by 20% of GDP taken on for stimulus.

So it's quite possible that once the coming crash turns back to growth The US could be in as bad shape as it should have been going into 2030.

One key facet is that most Western governments currently have a small schedule of debt payments, somewhere around 6% of budgets. The scope to take on debt is much greater than we are currently at. Japan is already paying 33% of its budget for debt repayments; and they have no way out of that going higher.

But I think the key difference for The US and to a lesser extent other Western countries is that their social fabric has been eroded far more than Japan, screwed about far more with mass immigration and leftism, and there are far many more lazy, entitled, deluded and lost youngsters in The West. So whatever more financial rope we have has been completely expended by the left's demonic social policies. They are also to blame for much of the economic issues. So I now see little difference in the half-life of Western countries and Japan.

One thing I've posted in other threads recently is there seems to be a tightening of the OECD-led dragnet on offshoring etc. Some of you may already know that there can be heavy compliance in going offshore and it's got heavier and heavier. I am hearing a lot of noise that it's going to get so heavy that what has been planned for some time will come to fruition. Whatever bank account you have anywhere in the world will likely automatically send you details to your home tax authority. There are a lot of jurisdictions that are already rushing to fill this void. For example Barbados is offering nomads tax-free residency for $2,000. UAE already has that. At this point I see The UAE as more Western, Christian-friendly and less tyrannical than where we are heading. By Christian I am referring to the rich variety of churches there due to expats. And of course, no degeneracy. It's been off my radar for a long time for obvious reasons. But The West has gone so far left that it's making Islam look good.

A lot have been sensing that a lot has been brewing this year. It certainly seems like elites are too ready to roll out draconian nightmares they've hatched in their off-the-record meetings.

The current economic stasis cannot go on. We need a cleanse of the system every ten years, to flush out bad debts, zombie companies and exuberance. All of those have been fluffed for the last 11 years by stimulus. They can now only be held up by continuing to print and borrow huge sums.

I think when the markets finally pop there will be a sell-off of gold and crypto, as there was in March 2020 and 2008-09, followed by the real gold and crypto rallies. So I am taking it easy at the moment. I am slowly moving money into stablecoins and loaning them out on a flexible term, while I look for opportunities.

The March crash was a blessing. I got in and have likely doubled my income this year. If I'd gone all in then I'd have reached my retirement goal. Make sure you get in next time.

If you are looking at gold/silver, your best bet is junior miners. I bought one very recently and it's up about 75%. If gold is going crazy put a 0 on the end of that. For crypto the same. Buy a couple of low-cap sleepers (suggestions MYST, PRE), something solid (ETH in my opinion) and some strong mid-cap projects (BitTorrent). If we have another bubble like in '13 and '17 you may be lucky to hit one of the 100X coins.

I am becoming increasingly wary about the legacy banking system. I have about 15-20% of cash in The US, which I am slowly weening out into stablecoins and crypto. I feel my ownership of assets held by legacy institutions is too weak. With the scale of what is to come I see it likely there will have to be confiscations to prop up liquidity. Last time it was Cyprus. Maybe this time it's Italy, France or The US. DeFi looks very promising, though it's difficult to see how it could pan out under the boot of governments, central banks and the global government that is trying to rear its head in these crises. Moving crypto around with authenticator codes, logins, multiple exchanges, in and out of fiat is cumbersome. Using DeFi is such a simple and free experience that I will be taking more chances with my assets in it. There is a new crypto debit card called Monolith that will allow you to loan out whatever is in your wallet. This industry is brand new, but it's already providing much better services than legacy banking.
 
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R.G.Camara

Woodpecker
I wouldn't invest in gold right now, except in perhaps a few hundred dollars worth of gold and silver coins like Krugerrands as a possible barter good.

I'm investing in actual hard goods: food, guns, bullets, cars, gasoline, fuel, and long-term medicine.

Gold and silver coins are only useful in a semi-functioning economy. In a collapsed world, people want to eat, have medicine, live somewhere safe, and protect themselves. Barter will be the exchange at that point---or theivery. And do you have enough to defend your gold stash?

If you're seeking to make a profit, sure, invest in gold stocks, but ask yourself---do you think the system will survive in some form for a few years? If so, invest. But if not, if you think the whole system will descend soon into barbarism, then "making a profit" won't help you, you need to survive---and you can't eat or shoot gold.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
Can you list some others you're currently interested in? Monolith is new to me but Chainlink has caught my eye.
I recently bought ChainLink before it popped. It seems like it is one of the most important projects, though I don't think it has the huge upsides that I am looking for. There are a lot of coins that are ETH clones, which I avoid. That space is saturated.

Right now most coins have gone up a lot. Many are up 200-500% since March lows.

Recently most technical signals were pointing to it going down from about $9-10K (BTC). But I noted that the 1d and 3d Bollinger bands were squeezing, signaling a sharp move up or down was on the cards. I also noted that the 1w MACD was going down, which suggested we were likely going to go down to $6-8K. However, the last time the 1w MACD started going down and then reverse was the beginning of the 2017 bull run. See the chart:



So my take was when the Bollinger bands popped to buy whatever direction it went it.

I take this as quite a bullish sign. So I am looking to hold and only sell if crypto goes down with stocks. In which case I will buy back straight away.

You can also look at the exchange traded Ethereum Grayscale (ETHE). That made a 700% move from about $30 to $245, when ETH only went $85 to $250 in the same period. If crypto goes crazy a lot of normies will no doubt buy that to the moon. Even though it is currently selling at 2.5X ETH and had a recent high of about $2,700, when compared to ETH. 1 ETHE = something like 0.95 ETH.

For other coins. As mentioned my two favourite are:

Myst - decentralised VPN, great team and backing, will go live in September. Real dark horse.
PreSeach - decentralised search engine, one of the most visited crypto sites

I like these mainly as I see them as the best coins to make serious multiple gains in a bull market. ChainLink needs to go to $45b market cap to 10X. Myst has been at $80m market cap before. Recently it was $1m. There are likely more good projects like that, which could see huge rallies.

Others I like are:

Synthetix
Status
Crypto.com
Ethereum
AirSwap
Maker
LBC
EOS*
Cred
BitTorrent*
Kyber
BAT*
ENJ
Golem
Civic
Propy (if it goes back down)
Decentraland
AVA (gone up far too much to buy now)

Some of those have already gone up heavily this year. I put * next to the ones that haven't gone up as much and which I am more interested in buying. Ethereum has gone up a lot. I mainly bought it in March as it was down a lot more than BTC from its all time highs and there are many projects built on ETH, that all need ETH to power their projects. I have seen ETH overtaking BTC since 2017. It looks like it's heading towards another possible flippening (overtaking BTC).

BTC's benefit are that it has most of the share of crypto's real economy, in terms of payments, particularly on the dark net. I believe the annual real economy of BTC is more than $2 billion. Other coins aren't really accepted, but I don't see much use for it long-term. It doesn't have the properties required to be used as money. It's used by people chipping of crypto gains on their crypto cards and for the dark markets. ETH has a large number of projects built on it. If ten of them go crazy, then the ETH price goes up. That is ETH's legitimate path up. While BTC is limited to crypto people and the dark web.

CRO (Crypto.com) is interesting. They are trying to set themselves up as the PayPal of crypto and want to make CRO the real crypto money. They have great products, but it's set up quite heavily like a pyramid scheme, which is how most things in crypto are set up - reward early adopters, draw in others who see their gains, holding these coins which they use for no real economic purpose. But its a scheme that's working and which you can hitch yourself to for the near-term. But it's gone up too much to be worth buying now.
 
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username

Ostrich
Gold Member
Look at gold in that chart after every pull back after the 4 stdev above 200 week moving average, a huge upswing afterwards over several years. After this pullback we could see gold on track for huge gains over the next few years.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
I'm invested mostly in silver and some gold. I got in in March/April and it's been a good run. Just trying to hold on here and ride this out.

Bull markets have big pull backs, people will take profits, there will be hesitation. The money keeps printing and silver and gold are a safe haven.
 

Nolimitz

Pigeon
I'll double down on what GEO is saying in regards to the gold miners. I closed out some calls a few weeks back on GDXJ......these are greatly lagging PM's performance and will have a lot of catching up to do in the next year or so.

GDXJ, GOEX....both easy picks for patient speculators.

On the topic of Bitcoin (Investment).....it has been profitable to hold Bitcoin for over 95% of its existence. I read a stat the other day that there have only been around some 50 odd days where buying BTC would have put you in the red.

Think about that.

Saving technology? Store of value? Couldn't be.

But here is the part so many are underestimating....,


A public company investing in BTC as a reserve asset. Think long and hard on this.

Two words: Game. Theory.

CFOs are constantly looking for ways to drive their stock prices up. Microstrategy was up on a decent amount yesterday on the news that they invested in Bitcoin.

Will other companies follow suit.....absolutely.

Same with the hedge funds....the HF managers are always looking for ways to improve their ROI. Paul Tudor Jones (respected HF manager) has taken career risk away from other HF managers by putting a small percentage of his fund into BTC.

This is just the beginning. Game theory played out amongst Hedge funds and fortune five hundred companies will turn into game theory played out amongst nation states.

"Ban Bitcoin!"

"Oh, but Singapore is growing their nations wealth by holding and allowing its citizens to transact in BTC. We may get left behind"

One thing I will admit (devil's advocate) BTC is trading above its cost of production. But this has always been the case after halving. Long story short: It is irresponsible to not allocate 1-2% of your portfolio to Bitcoin.

Quit waiting for dips and get your position.
 

bucky

Pelican
I knew I should have backed up the truck and filled it with silver when it was at like $10 an ounce last year. Oh well. My investing in hindsight continues to be flawless.
 

Nolimitz

Pigeon
I knew I should have backed up the truck and filled it with silver when it was at like $10 an ounce last year. Oh well. My investing in hindsight continues to be flawless.
Silver is just getting started....perhaps we see March likes dumps in BTC, PMs sometime between now and election (anything is possible) Depends on $DXY (which is in downtrend).

Still undervalued IMHO.
 

gework

Ostrich
Gold Member
I knew I should have backed up the truck and filled it with silver when it was at like $10 an ounce last year. Oh well. My investing in hindsight continues to be flawless.
Many small miners are still pennies on the dollar from where they were last bull run. I have no interest in exposure to the metal itself.
 
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