TheCaptainPower said:
This is my problem with real estate:
A) If interest rates go up the shit should drop pretty bad...
B) Massive bubble in NYC, and Florida is re-bubbling
C) I might not be cash flow positive if I buy in Florida while I live in NYC
My passive income is up to around $400 a month now, I would love to get it to cover my fixed bills by age 40. Looking for a new job possibly next year after I vest at my currently company...
I'm not sure about rates...in the late 70's, rates went up but real estate boomed. All things being equal you should be right, but other factors are at play, also.
The same reality exists for gold and the greenback: When the dollar strengthens, gold TYPICALLY declines, and vice versa. Makes sense, since gold is priced in USD. But I know a lot of smart people who think USD will appreciate in the coming years (not because we're doing anything right but because Japan, the UK, the Eurozone, and China are debasing their currencies faster than we are and/or have worse troubles with their banks). But these people also think that if the next crash is, like the last crash, driven by a credit crisis, gold may actually go up. I.e., you'd have gold and the dollar going in the same direction. Unusual, but possible. It could happen re: rates as well.
I don't necessarily agree about NYC: Remember that most real estate in NYC are co-ops, and many have a 50% down requirement ( or more!). This means owners in NYC have more equity in their homes than is normal, and this seems to have lessened NYC's decline the last crash. Also, the SUPPLY in NYC is limited due to the constraint of available land and the difficulty in getting permits for teardown, so supply didn't skyrocket like Phoenix or Vegas or Miami. All that said, a lot of the supply that came on line recently in NYC was condos, not coops, so maybe it will be worse than last time.