Impact of decreasing birth rates

Lowe

Chicken
The truth is we have already seen the effects of long term population decline, among the educated and the productive. It has been going on for some time in the West. Immigration has been the stop-gap, but that will fail. China or India will reach demographic plateau, soon. China very soon and India somewhat later.

For the last ten years the Fed, the central bank of the US, has been increasing the portion of the extant money created by them to buy gov't bonds off the secondary market. It's over one third now, about 35%. Most money is still created on the balance sheets of private banks, when private loans are made. The Fed has been taking up a bigger portion over time though, to make up for slack in the credit market. Their balance sheet jumped up a lot in 2008, and it has stayed high since then.

Central bankers know what they are doing, but they have less control than you might think. For a decade they've been fighting deflation. That's what they're afraid of, the deflation of the currency caused by a contracting credit market, which is where all money originates. They can only fight so hard and so effectively though, because what they're fighting is bigger than they are.

Since the Post-War era began the West had been in demographic decline among its productive classes. The demographic debt has started to come due in the last ten or fifteen years, as the last big birth cohort nears retirement. The long-term secular trend has been for decreasing interest rates, because there are increasingly fewer credit-worthy people, especially at the highest levels. That kind of environment cannot support increasing rates, because it is fundamentally deflationary.

It's not hard to tell what is happening either, if you look around. The SAT was implemented and popularized so the big universities, and in turn the big corporations, could suck up the intelligent kids from the hinterlands, and put them to work in the cities. Consequently the small towns die. That's not the only reason, but it's a big one, the biggest. The cities are demographic sinks, and many of those bright kids go on to have very few kids themselves, exacerbating the problem.

The increasing wealth gap is mostly due to the increasingly small cognitive elite of the developed world, pulling away from everyone else, as the big corporations become increasingly desperate and pay increasingly absurd sums to proven performers, whether software developers, financial analysts, or whatever. Business is hard up for talent, and this is only going to get worse.


So what do we see? Bear in mind, none of this is financial advice of any kind, just idle chatter.

1. Low inflation - I'm not including goods with cost disease, like university costs or healthcare.

2. Increasing Fed balance sheet, even more, but money sits idle with banks, because no credit-worthy babies reached adulthood in the meantime.

3. Increasing economic and elite concentration in Silicon Valley and New York. There is no other choice. They need the smart kids close, so they can suck them dry, and there are fewer and fewer of those kids.

4. Top stocks continue to out-perform everything else, because only they can bid enough to get and keep top talent. Winner take all.


Here's the thing. That stuff has already been going on, for sometime. I'm just telling you it's going to continue, HARD. It's also going to wreck us, HARD. Not just us like Westerners, but the entire world. Some East Asian nations, like Japan and South Korea, are farther along even.

Like another commenter mentioned, we are entering a dark age. Literally only Jesus Christ can save us now. He is the only one with the power to transform people and nations, and without Him we will surely perish. He brought us this far, and only He can take us any farther.
 

JTA

Pigeon
I’m just wondering what you guys think the long term implication of a declining birth rate is going to be on the US. I can’t figure out if decreasing birth rates will be not be a big deal because tech will offset and we will continue to have high GDP. Or we have to start bringing in more immigrants like Japan and Germany. But social security relies on the younger generation paying into it.

Also it seems more men are opting to not wanting to have kids and more kids being raised by single moms. It seems that kids raised by single moms have lots of issues and so they may not be able to contribute to society vs children raised with a strong father figure. So births are decreasing and some of them are gonna be useless. I think if UBI becomes a thing, then there goes some more productivity.

What do you think the implications are?


"The (total fertility) rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007," the report says.

This topic came up in a real estate class I took last year.

Some possibilities we discussed:
  1. An utter collapse of rural-to-suburban life and the housing market, it will gradually become a sustained buyer's market in these areas due to general lack of demand due to negatively trending population growth.
  2. Spiked urbanization via incentivization, and aggressive federal/state policy, to get single occupants/families with no kids into cramped, high-density living developments (think of The 5th Element Korben's apartment complex, or Blade Runner-esque living quarters)
    • Complementing this, a re-zoning of suburbs to eventually make them extensions of urban metropolises to continue funneling single occupants/families with no kids into urbanization.
  3. Most college towns will die, indirectly contributing to the previous points. 2020 COVID-phobic college policies have made this pretty much happen already, with the more liberal universities shuttering their campuses and pushing everything to zoom, while still charging full tuition (think west coast, NYC area, UNC-Chapel Hill's example this year, etc.).
    • Conversely, some rebellious SEC-type towns are resisting somewhat, and continuing to build off-post student housing, but the future lack of a sizable indigenous student body will render these to be very poorly-invested construction projects. There will not be enough future occupancy to earn a decent amount of revenue (in rent). These housing projects will be likely be re-appropriated for other things/ripped down/turned into parking structures or telecom hubs.
  4. A massive increase in 3rd-world immigration (federally incentivized) to get immigrants onto US soil in order to continue satiating jobs at varying echelons, along with housing, corporate consumer goods/shopping - in lieu of most entertainment and dining venues being converted into online-based platforms due to COVID (i.e. Spotify, Netflix, Grubhub, DoorDash, etc).
  5. Massive increase in automation and robotics for key industries (manufacturing, grocery shopping, and industrial construction as examples).
Japan has been a level 5 (aging and shrinking) society for decades now. Japan offers a glimpse of what a current sovereign nation might look like, and what actions it might take in the future, when it cannot reverse population shrinkage.
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
I have only spent very little time in Japan, but most people who mention it come at it from a western perspective. The Japanese do not *want* a larger population. The Japanese are a prosperous, stable, healthy, wealthy society with tradition, good male/female relations, and a strong economy full of manufacturing and electronics firms on the cutting edge. Not to mention a healthy patriarchal order.

Japan is the most homogeneous first world society alive today, and that is one major reason it is occupied by western forces to this day. They are intent on destroying the Japanese way of life. Japan is not be any means "suffering" (yes it has challenges from time to time with things like Fukushima but it handles these orders of magnitude better than much smaller events in the west, and there is virtually no looting or crime when disasters break out (or really, at any time).

Be careful of drawing any parallels from Japan to the west because they are quite unique, and America is already far down the roads of feminism and diversity. Japan didn't even want democracy, but it was forced on them by the (((allies))).
 

JTA

Pigeon
I have only spent very little time in Japan, but most people who mention it come at it from a western perspective. The Japanese do not *want* a larger population. The Japanese are a prosperous, stable, healthy, wealthy society with tradition, good male/female relations, and a strong economy full of manufacturing and electronics firms on the cutting edge. Not to mention a healthy patriarchal order.

Japan is the most homogeneous first world society alive today, and that is one major reason it is occupied by western forces to this day. They are intent on destroying the Japanese way of life. Japan is not be any means "suffering" (yes it has challenges from time to time with things like Fukushima but it handles these orders of magnitude better than much smaller events in the west, and there is virtually no looting or crime when disasters break out (or really, at any time).

Be careful of drawing any parallels from Japan to the west because they are quite unique, and America is already far down the roads of feminism and diversity. Japan didn't even want democracy, but it was forced on them by the (((allies))).

Good! Good...traveled there a couple years as well.



Personally, would rather have that model for East Asian soft power than CCP honeypots/honeytraps.
 

Punchitchewie

Woodpecker
).
Japan has been a level 5 (aging and shrinking) society for decades now. Japan offers a glimpse of what a current sovereign nation might look like, and what actions it might take in the future, when it cannot reverse population shrinkage.
I totally and utterly disagree. Japan is a homogeneous society filled with hard working high IQ people. America is getting browner and dumber by the second. America will resemble Brazil or South Africa far more than it will japan.

japan may have a shrinking population. That isn’t actually a bad thing when viewed outside of the western capitalist debt pyramid scheme. In 100 years japan will still be Japanese. In 100 years America, Germany, Australia, England etc will be nothing more than imaginary lines on a map.
 
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Lowe

Chicken
I have never traveled there, but my understanding is that Japan is anything but a happy land of traditional, patriarchal values. The demographic situation there is not improving. The young people there are not happy, as evidenced by their retreat into fantasy.

Arguably Japan is a different place than the West, with much higher population density to begin with. And at the very least they haven't fallen into the fallacy that unfettered immigration will somehow help them. So far.

Maybe it is true that in 100 years Japan will still be Japan. Or maybe their political and cultural resolve will fail. I think that's more likely. The Japanese central bank balance sheet is roughly 50% of Japanese money, and for a long time they have been buying stocks to support that market (!), something basically nobody does. This is not sustainable.

I don't know God's plans, and I could be wrong. But it looks like the Japanese have no answers, and they are on a sinking ship along with everyone else. Their failure is in their rejection of Christ, just like our failure. He is the father of the modern world, and He is tearing that world down now.
 

JTA

Pigeon
I totally and utterly disagree. Japan is a homogeneous society filled with hard working high IQ people. America is getting browner and dumber by the second. America will resemble Brazil or South Africa far more than it will japan.

japan may have a shrinking population. That isn’t actually a bad thing when viewed outside of the western capitalist debt pyramid scheme. In 100 years japan will still be Japanese. In 100 years America, Germany, Australia, England etc will be nothing more than imaginary lines on a map.

No disputing that view necessarily, I agree it it for the most part. Cultural/racial homogeneity is superior to diversity (when we are told the opposite).

However, my point is that while Japan decreases in birthrates/negatively trends population-wise, the Japanese gov't seeks to do a number of things:
- Increase automatization/robotics
- Increase feminization of the workforce to boost numbers (in a traditionally male hierarchy)
- Cluster people into urban centers more
- Import working immigrants (i.e. from India/Philippines/South Korea) and incentivize them to stay longer to boost population numbers

These points align with the original possibilities I offered for the US. Hence, the US is moving toward doing the same things here. Japan offers a glimpse of what what other shrinking 1st world nations will or may do to compensate for declining birthrates.

 
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Punchitchewie

Woodpecker
K
No disputing that view necessarily, I agree it it for the most part. Cultural/racial homogeneity is superior to diversity (when we are told the opposite).

However, my point is that while Japan decreases in birthrates/negatively trends population-wise, the Japanese gov't seeks to do a number of things:
- Increase automatization/robotics
- Increase feminization of the workforce to boost numbers (in a traditionally male hierarchy)
- Cluster people into urban centers more
- Import working immigrants (i.e. from India/Philippines/South Korea) and incentivize them to stay longer to boost population numbers

These points align with the original possibilities I offered for the US. Hence, the US is moving toward doing the same things here. Japan offers a glimpse of what what other shrinking 1st world nations will or may do to compensate for declining birthrates.

Agreed but I think the outcome will be very different.
Japan still has an overreaching culture and politicians that are doing the best for them. It’s also a very small country.

America is huge and now has dozens of cultures all vying to tear a piece of flesh off for themselves. At best america will balkanise and each ethnic group will take their own area. At worse it’s going to be Brazil 2.0 with small pockets of haves and the rest is a brown unwashed mass
 

ralfy

Robin
Hahahahahahahahhahaa
Capitalist pyramid schemes rely on infinite growth.
Since feminism cratered the birth rate. The source of more consumers is simply importing infinite waves of worse and worse immigrants.
It started with Italians, Irish and Greeks that at least shared a common culture with the Anglo stock. Then it was the asians who although have a different culture are hard working and law abiding. Now we are at the indians and Africans....

It's not so much feminism as prosperity that led to lower birth rates. That's also the same prosperity needed for more consumption. That's why richer countries have lower birth rates as well as higher ecological footprints per capita.

"mporting infinite waves of worse and worse immigrants" isn't needed for consumer spending because of outsourcing. Also, BRICS and emerging markets have been experiencing significant economic growth for the past three decades. That's why the global middle class has been growing throughout:


Finally, immigration is also taking place because capitalists are taking advantage of cheaper labor and are adjusting to population aging.
 

JohnQThomas

Woodpecker
Probably, not much will change. It will accelerate automation, since the ones having kids (top 10% of earners) are not going to drop their standard of living. There are already butcher robots. There are even Kitchen robots being sold in 2021. Practically everything can be automated, especially in healthcare. The only reason there is no unemployment in the 20% area, is due to Government jobs. There is an enormous amount of pencil pushing Gov jobs, being actively protected by the Gov.

I cannot confirm that birthrate for everyone is declining. In my area of a big German city, the well off families have 3 kids, a house, and some sort of lux SUV. Usually the man will have more kids from other wives. Now to the migrants. Their kids are not having any kids, since they themselves are Westernized. You will have the occasional mixed couple, but this is rare. African and Arab Migrant women are rarely a catch on the market, and they even hate their own men. They want to upgrade to a German/European guy. The migrant men are not attractive for most women here. These guys are usually broke, have no job or education prospects, and are being selected out of the market.

Contrary to what have been told here, the migrants have been imported mostly to just vote for Merkel. This is evidence by the fact that refugees are given a fast track towards citizenship. There is no need for working hands anywhere in Germany. Even the corrupt Heads of Industry knew that they have no use for men who mostly cannot even read their own native language.
Just as I suspected—women are NOT attracted to recent-immigrant men with poor employment prospects. We may have 99 problems, but a serious risk of being cucked by such men isn’t one of them.
 

JohnQThomas

Woodpecker
Probably, not much will change. It will accelerate automation, since the ones having kids (top 10% of earners) are not going to drop their standard of living. There are already butcher robots. There are even Kitchen robots being sold in 2021. Practically everything can be automated, especially in healthcare. The only reason there is no unemployment in the 20% area, is due to Government jobs. There is an enormous amount of pencil pushing Gov jobs, being actively protected by the Gov.

I cannot confirm that birthrate for everyone is declining. In my area of a big German city, the well off families have 3 kids, a house, and some sort of lux SUV. Usually the man will have more kids from other wives. Now to the migrants. Their kids are not having any kids, since they themselves are Westernized. You will have the occasional mixed couple, but this is rare. African and Arab Migrant women are rarely a catch on the market, and they even hate their own men. They want to upgrade to a German/European guy. The migrant men are not attractive for most women here. These guys are usually broke, have no job or education prospects, and are being selected out of the market.

Contrary to what have been told here, the migrants have been imported mostly to just vote for Merkel. This is evidence by the fact that refugees are given a fast track towards citizenship. There is no need for working hands anywhere in Germany. Even the corrupt Heads of Industry knew that they have no use for men who mostly cannot even read their own native language.
Just as I suspected—women aren’t really attracted to recent-immigrant men with poor economic prospects. So we may have 99 problems, but a serious risk of being cucked by such men isn’t one of them.
 
My 85 year old gran once said “cities are where uteruses goes to die”

The pre boomer generation were very red pilled. Pity they let their kids be raised by tv

And the schools of the Prussian Model and Universities that they trust so much in. But those are the vectors of indoctrination not education:

Real education is the Trivium:
 
Hahahahahahahahhahaa
Capitalist pyramid schemes rely on infinite growth.
Since feminism cratered the birth rate. The source of more consumers is simply importing infinite waves of worse and worse immigrants.
It started with Italians, Irish and Greeks that at least shared a common culture with the Anglo stock. Then it was the asians who although have a different culture are hard working and law abiding. Now we are at the indians and Africans....

The video I linked earlier. Shows that our Debt-based economy in contrast to the Economy of early Colonial America with its Gold/Silver Standard with comparatively minimal Usury, requires ever increasing Loans and therefore Economic and Population Growth.

But it is Ponzi Scheme for the whole time ever since the Debt-based Economy ushered in by the Federal Reserve. Therefore whenever population growth stalls. The Ponzi Scheme would start to collapse. Except when supplemented by increasing foreign immigration.


Even the Austrian School of Economics being the Pro-Capitalists that they are. Know that this kind of Ponzi Scheme is what is ruining "Capitalism":



In fact in contrast to the Austrian School of Economics which I largely agree with. Usury is one of the ultimate evils that must be dealt with:

Unless this problem is dealt with the modern Ponzi Scheme won't ultimately be solved.
 
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ralfy

Robin
The interesting thing about automation is that robots aren't consumers, consumers are also workers, and businesses get returns from investing in automation through increasing production which is paid for through increasing sales to consumers.
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
I have never traveled there, but my understanding is that Japan is anything but a happy land of traditional, patriarchal values. The demographic situation there is not improving. The young people there are not happy, as evidenced by their retreat into fantasy.
By "improving" demographics do you mean a growing population?
Followup: Did America's demographics improve or decline since 1950 when its population was around 150m?
Finally: Do demographics infinitely "improve" as they grow, or is there some population level where things become unpleasant and scarcity of resources becomes a serious problem?
 

Lime

Kingfisher
I'm older, so I remember how much smaller the towns and cities were in the 70s and 80s in the US. It was much better. The US and the world may be able to carry more population in hive cities with processed foods grown in factory farms, but I don't think this is better.

I'd love to see our rate of population growth go slightly negative. The remaining high growth regions of the earth really need to shrink their populations. Those places are adding 100s of millions that they can't feed, or educate, or provide homes and jobs for.

Going from 3 billion to 8 billion was not a good thing.

I don't disagree, but a population decline has to go somewhat controlled. I'm reading a few books about this topic as of yet.

With a TFR of much lower than 2, populations go extinct in a few centuries! Meaning that some European societies are due to go extinct by the year 2200-2300.

It's also not only a Western problem, birth rates are very low in Russia, Eastern Europe, much of Asia and also Latin America. Even some Middle Eastern countries have low birth rates.

All news outlets talk about that our population will increase until 2060, and we need so much housing for that.

Read: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200715150444.htm (World population likely to shrink after mid-century, forecasting major shifts in global population and economic power).

Many of the fastest-shrinking populations will be in Asia and central and eastern Europe. Populations are expected to more than halve in 23 countries and territories, including Japan (from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100), Thailand (71 to 35 million), Spain (46 to 23 million), Italy (61 to 31 million), Portugal (11 to 5 million), and South Korea (53 to 27 million). An additional 34 countries are expected to have population declines of 25 to 50%, including China (1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100; see table).

What will be of the newly built housing after 2060 when the population starts to plummet? And the general economy when one needs 2 workers for every retiree?
 

Pendleton

Pelican
I heard today that Canada wants to hit 100m in population by 2021 through immigration. This method has been proven to NOT work.
Does anyone bother to explain how this would be of any benefit to Canadians or is it just assumed everyone will agree that their displacement by 3rd worlders is inherently good? Obviously, they aren't trying to argue that they just need immigrants to maintain the population (which I think is as disingenuous as every other argument made to justify mass migration).
 
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