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Impact of decreasing birth rates
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<blockquote data-quote="JTA" data-source="post: 1410708" data-attributes="member: 20479"><p>This topic came up in a real estate class I took last year.</p><p></p><p>Some possibilities we discussed:</p><ol style="margin-left: 40px"> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">An utter collapse of rural-to-suburban life and the housing market, it will gradually become a sustained buyer's market in these areas due to general lack of demand due to negatively trending population growth.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Spiked urbanization via incentivization, and aggressive federal/state policy, to get single occupants/families with no kids into cramped, high-density living developments (think of <em>The 5th Element</em> Korben's apartment complex, or <em>Blade Runner</em>-esque living quarters)<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Complementing this, a re-zoning of suburbs to eventually make them extensions of urban metropolises to continue funneling single occupants/families with no kids into urbanization.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Most college towns will die, indirectly contributing to the previous points. 2020 COVID-phobic college policies have made this pretty much happen already, with the more liberal universities shuttering their campuses and pushing everything to zoom, while still charging full tuition (think west coast, NYC area, UNC-Chapel Hill's example this year, etc.).<ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Conversely, some rebellious SEC-type towns are resisting somewhat, and continuing to build off-post student housing, but the future lack of a sizable indigenous student body will render these to be very poorly-invested construction projects. There will not be enough future occupancy to earn a decent amount of revenue (in rent). These housing projects will be likely be re-appropriated for other things/ripped down/turned into parking structures or telecom hubs.</li> </ul></li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">A massive increase in 3rd-world immigration (federally incentivized) to get immigrants onto US soil in order to continue satiating jobs at varying echelons, along with housing, corporate consumer goods/shopping - in lieu of most entertainment and dining venues being converted into online-based platforms due to COVID (i.e. Spotify, Netflix, Grubhub, DoorDash, etc).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Massive increase in automation and robotics for key industries (manufacturing, grocery shopping, and industrial construction as examples).</li> </ol><p>Japan has been a level 5 (aging and shrinking) society for decades now. Japan offers a glimpse of what a current sovereign nation might look like, and what actions it might take in the future, when it cannot reverse population shrinkage.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="JTA, post: 1410708, member: 20479"] This topic came up in a real estate class I took last year. Some possibilities we discussed: [INDENT=2][LIST=1] [*]An utter collapse of rural-to-suburban life and the housing market, it will gradually become a sustained buyer's market in these areas due to general lack of demand due to negatively trending population growth. [*]Spiked urbanization via incentivization, and aggressive federal/state policy, to get single occupants/families with no kids into cramped, high-density living developments (think of [I]The 5th Element[/I] Korben's apartment complex, or [I]Blade Runner[/I]-esque living quarters) [LIST] [*]Complementing this, a re-zoning of suburbs to eventually make them extensions of urban metropolises to continue funneling single occupants/families with no kids into urbanization. [/LIST] [*]Most college towns will die, indirectly contributing to the previous points. 2020 COVID-phobic college policies have made this pretty much happen already, with the more liberal universities shuttering their campuses and pushing everything to zoom, while still charging full tuition (think west coast, NYC area, UNC-Chapel Hill's example this year, etc.). [LIST] [*]Conversely, some rebellious SEC-type towns are resisting somewhat, and continuing to build off-post student housing, but the future lack of a sizable indigenous student body will render these to be very poorly-invested construction projects. There will not be enough future occupancy to earn a decent amount of revenue (in rent). These housing projects will be likely be re-appropriated for other things/ripped down/turned into parking structures or telecom hubs. [/LIST] [*]A massive increase in 3rd-world immigration (federally incentivized) to get immigrants onto US soil in order to continue satiating jobs at varying echelons, along with housing, corporate consumer goods/shopping - in lieu of most entertainment and dining venues being converted into online-based platforms due to COVID (i.e. Spotify, Netflix, Grubhub, DoorDash, etc). [*]Massive increase in automation and robotics for key industries (manufacturing, grocery shopping, and industrial construction as examples). [/LIST][/INDENT] Japan has been a level 5 (aging and shrinking) society for decades now. Japan offers a glimpse of what a current sovereign nation might look like, and what actions it might take in the future, when it cannot reverse population shrinkage. [/QUOTE]
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