How quickly does the math catch up and the problems arise from debt and printing?
Impact of inflation
- Thread starter Roosh
- Start date
It will depend on how much we print up. Look at cases like Zimbabwe or post ww1 Germany where the inflation spiral was so rapid it took billions of dollars to buy a loaf of bread
From what I can tell we are doing something far worse than printing up trillions of dollars:
We are borrowing and increasing our debt.
The amount we are borrowing is skyrocketing . If we had been printing up the money the money printer we would be at a steady amount of debt but the dollar would be losing much more value
From treasury.gov
| Record Date | Debt Outstanding Amount | Source Line Number | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Quarter Number | Calendar Year | Calendar Quarter Number | Calendar Month Number | Calendar Day Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30/2022 | $30,928,911,613,306.73 | 1 | 2022 | 4 | 2022 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2021 | $28,428,918,570,048.68 | 1 | 2021 | 4 | 2021 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2020 | $26,945,391,194,615.15 | 1 | 2020 | 4 | 2020 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2019 | $22,719,401,753,433.78 | 1 | 2019 | 4 | 2019 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2018 | $21,516,058,183,180.23 | 1 | 2018 | 4 | 2018 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2017 | $20,244,900,016,053.51 | 1 | 2017 | 4 | 2017 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2016 | $19,573,444,713,936.79 | 1 | 2016 | 4 | 2016 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2015 | $18,150,617,666,484.33 | 1 | 2015 | 4 | 2015 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2014 | $17,824,071,380,733.82 | 1 | 2014 | 4 | 2014 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2013 | $16,738,183,526,697.32 | 1 | 2013 | 4 | 2013 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2012 | $16,066,241,407,385.89 | 1 | 2012 | 4 | 2012 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2011 | $14,790,340,328,557.15 | 1 | 2011 | 4 | 2011 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2010 | $13,561,623,030,891.79 | 1 | 2010 | 4 | 2010 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2009 | $11,909,829,003,511.75 | 1 | 2009 | 4 | 2009 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2008 | $10,024,724,896,912.49 | 1 | 2008 | 4 | 2008 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2007 | $9,007,653,372,262.48 | 1 | 2007 | 4 | 2007 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2006 | $8,506,973,899,215.23 | 1 | 2006 | 4 | 2006 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2005 | $7,932,709,661,723.50 | 1 | 2005 | 4 | 2005 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2004 | $7,379,052,696,330.32 | 1 | 2004 | 4 | 2004 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2003 | $6,783,231,062,743.62 | 1 | 2003 | 4 | 2003 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2002 | $6,228,235,965,597.16 | 1 | 2002 | 4 | 2002 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2001 | $5,807,463,412,200.06 | 1 | 2001 | 4 | 2001 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/2000 | $5,674,178,209,886.86 | 1 | 2000 | 4 | 2000 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1999 | $5,656,270,901,615.43 | 1 | 1999 | 4 | 1999 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1998 | $5,526,193,008,897.62 | 1 | 1998 | 4 | 1998 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1997 | $5,413,146,011,397.34 | 1 | 1997 | 4 | 1997 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1996 | $5,224,810,939,135.73 | 1 | 1996 | 4 | 1996 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/29/1995 | $4,973,982,900,709.39 | 1 | 1995 | 4 | 1995 | 3 | 09 | 29 |
| 9/30/1994 | $4,692,749,910,013.32 | 1 | 1994 | 4 | 1994 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1993 | $4,411,488,883,139.38 | 1 | 1993 | 4 | 1993 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1992 | $4,064,620,655,521.66 | 1 | 1992 | 4 | 1992 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1991 | $3,665,303,351,697.03 | 1 | 1991 | 4 | 1991 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/28/1990 | $3,233,313,451,777.25 | 1 | 1990 | 4 | 1990 | 3 | 09 | 28 |
| 9/29/1989 | $2,857,430,960,187.32 | 1 | 1989 | 4 | 1989 | 3 | 09 | 29 |
| 9/30/1988 | $2,602,337,712,041.16 | 1 | 1988 | 4 | 1988 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1987 | $2,350,276,890,953.00 | 1 | 1987 | 4 | 1987 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1986 | $2,125,302,616,658.42 | 1 | 1986 | 4 | 1986 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1985 | $1,823,103,000,000.00 | 1 | 1985 | 4 | 1985 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1984 | $1,572,266,000,000.00 | 1 | 1984 | 4 | 1984 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1983 | $1,377,210,000,000.00 | 1 | 1983 | 4 | 1983 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1982 | $1,142,034,000,000.00 | 1 | 1982 | 4 | 1982 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1981 | $997,855,000,000.00 | 1 | 1981 | 4 | 1981 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1980 | $907,701,000,000.00 | 1 | 1980 | 4 | 1980 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1979 | $826,519,000,000.00 | 1 | 1979 | 4 | 1979 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1978 | $771,544,000,000.00 | 1 | 1978 | 4 | 1978 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 9/30/1977 | $698,840,000,000.00 | 1 | 1977 | 4 | 1977 | 3 | 09 | 30 |
| 6/30/1976 | $620,433,000,000.00 | 1 | 1976 | 3 | 1976 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1975 | $533,189,000,000.00 | 1 | 1975 | 3 | 1975 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1974 | $475,059,815,731.55 | 1 | 1974 | 3 | 1974 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1973 | $458,141,605,312.09 | 1 | 1973 | 3 | 1973 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1972 | $427,260,460,940.50 | 1 | 1972 | 3 | 1972 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1971 | $398,129,744,455.54 | 1 | 1971 | 3 | 1971 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1970 | $370,918,706,949.93 | 1 | 1970 | 3 | 1970 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1969 | $353,720,253,841.41 | 1 | 1969 | 3 | 1969 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1968 | $347,578,406,425.88 | 1 | 1968 | 3 | 1968 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1967 | $326,220,937,794.54 | 1 | 1967 | 3 | 1967 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1966 | $319,907,087,795.48 | 1 | 1966 | 3 | 1966 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1965 | $317,273,898,983.64 | 1 | 1965 | 3 | 1965 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1964 | $311,712,899,257.30 | 1 | 1964 | 3 | 1964 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1963 | $305,859,632,996.41 | 1 | 1963 | 3 | 1963 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1962 | $298,200,822,720.87 | 1 | 1962 | 3 | 1962 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1961 | $288,970,938,610.05 | 1 | 1961 | 3 | 1961 | 2 | 06 | 30 |
| 6/30/1960 | $286,330,760,848.37 | 1 | 1960 | |
The last date on that table is not 11 months old, but the current debt is already up to $32.7 trillion. $50 trillion will come and go real fast, before 2030 most likely, if dollars still exist by then. That's less time than since when Trump won in 2016.
If prices double by then, does it mean the debt will really only be $25 trillion in 2023 dollars?
Edit: When I consider the rate of inflation, the debt hasn't gone up nearly as much as it seems. Based on my salary and what it can buy, I would say prices now are 2.3x what they were in 2005. So, the debt of 2005 was $18.25 trillion in 2023 dollars.
Using similar logic, I think dollars in 1997 were worth 3.25x what they are today, so the debt in 1997 was worth $17.65 trillion.
Clearly the current $32.7 is higher than those numbers, but not nearly so bad as you might think. Only twice as high as 26 years ago, not 6x higher as you'd think without taking inflation into account. If prices double by 2030, and the debt only goes up to $50 trillion in 2030 dollars, that will actually be less than it is now in 2023 dollars!
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I’ll echo some of that - like the people doing a lot making little and the ones doing little making a lot, but the case against socialism is air tight to be honest. It’s all based on the labor value theory of economics which i can debunk with the pet rocks from the 70s.
Debt (as in governmental) is the only social construct that's an actual social construct.
@Thomas More Can I borrow some money from you so I can pay you back with more money while you then decide how much that "more" is?
Who do "we" owe it to anyway?
@Thomas More Can I borrow some money from you so I can pay you back with more money while you then decide how much that "more" is?
Who do "we" owe it to anyway?
This is what causes the problem, and it will be next year. Rates must go up because people know already that US debt is less and less trustworthy, whether the US or anyone else likes it or not. Of course, that means you can't roll it over as easily, and (Cliff's notes) it is actually too late anyway. They will cut rates next year, just not this year, and that means a lot of things that are all chaotic. When you only use monetary policy for short term rates, and leave the long end alone, and it keeps going up, you'll then only be left with what Japan does = yield curve control. That's an admission that you are even faker than everyone wanted to admit, and confidence will finally shake and quake, which was always their final trick in the book.
In 2024-25, things like BTC will skyrocket as a result.
Sure, how much do you need?
I hope you’re right but I’m not sure it happens that soon, could easily stay flat for a few more years
Since just before the scamdemic, I've spent the majority of that time overseas with my wife and now 2 children.
I brought them to the US in June with plans to live and raise my children here. I'm shocked at the cost of living here in relation to 2017 or 2018. We are spending a fortune on groceries, fuel, utilities, etc. My wife will never work and will homeschool our kids, but wow the price of things is intimidating.
I've just been offered a position back in my wife's home country that we are seriously praying about. It would easily be the equivalent of six figures in America and it is something that I'd love to do. While I don't need to be wealthy, I'd still like to be able to leave something for my kids when I'm gone.
I can stay here and provide for my family on a single income, but man it's gonna be tight.
I brought them to the US in June with plans to live and raise my children here. I'm shocked at the cost of living here in relation to 2017 or 2018. We are spending a fortune on groceries, fuel, utilities, etc. My wife will never work and will homeschool our kids, but wow the price of things is intimidating.
I've just been offered a position back in my wife's home country that we are seriously praying about. It would easily be the equivalent of six figures in America and it is something that I'd love to do. While I don't need to be wealthy, I'd still like to be able to leave something for my kids when I'm gone.
I can stay here and provide for my family on a single income, but man it's gonna be tight.
You can use spin to convince people of many things, you will have trouble convincing starving people that they aren’t starving.
We’ve (people in general) were sold a false bill of goods that college is totally worth the money, we have loads of high paying jobs for young people to thrive and build a family.
That might have all been true 20 or even ten years ago but today? Hmm
We’ve (people in general) were sold a false bill of goods that college is totally worth the money, we have loads of high paying jobs for young people to thrive and build a family.
That might have all been true 20 or even ten years ago but today? Hmm
I just purchased a medium smoothie with a coupon for over $9. It was made with frozen fruit, not fresh as you can get all over central America for $1.50. A plumber just charged me $350 to install a toilet, with me bringing the toilet (this was a gift to a family member--yeah I should have done it myself).
I was floored.
We are in a recession now, if you define recession as "decline in consumption of goods and services" and not "decline in economic spending of Federal Reserve Notes."
They will claim that by fraudulent "GDP" that things are improving, but the real story is different.
The US is in a recession if you measure economic activity in units, not dollars.
I've been trying to replace my 15 year old car with something newer. I'm seeing a bunch of old $30,000 used cars with 100,000+ miles on them. No way.
So I looked in to new car sales to see what was going on. US car sales are over 1.5 MILLION / year below pre-pandemic levels. That's 1.5 million fewer new cars every year (it was actually more like 5 million in 2020 and 2021) on the roads.
If you are consuming 1.5 MILLION fewer cars every year than you used to, your society is in economic decline.
Before covid lockdowns, we consumed about 17.5 million cars every year. Now we are barely at 16.
It's not a "chip shortage"
It's not a "supply chain problem"
Don't believe me? Look at the supposedly (if you believe our media) poor and backwards nation of China. They quickly recovered from lockdowns and resumed the normal gradual growth rate in line with population growth, as one would expect in a stable society. How is China able to stabilize and even grow its car market while America can't?
The car I am replacing, which I bought years ago for under $10k now sells for $60,000 new. Absolutely insane and unaffordable. If a nation's people are consuming fewer goods and services, then they are becoming poorer (unless they are saving/investing which we know Americans are not).
Just remember that our economy is shrinking in almost every way. Fewer clothes are purchased. Fewer computers. Fewer phones. Fewer books. Fewer cars. Fewer vacations. Fewer meals out. Fewer toys for children. Fewer hobbiest or luxury items (forget having hobbies or small luxuries if you are not ultra-rich). That is by definition a failing state.
Inflation can be used to lie to the people, as it's very possible that car sales measured in Federal Reserve Notes are higher than they were 2 years ago. The media will report that as if it's a good thing--it's a BAD thing as it means cars are more expensive than 2 years ago. On top of that, car unit sales are down. A very grim picture. Also expect a lot more older, noisier and polluting older cars as this problem compounds year after year that these new cars are not hitting our streets.
I was floored.
We are in a recession now, if you define recession as "decline in consumption of goods and services" and not "decline in economic spending of Federal Reserve Notes."
They will claim that by fraudulent "GDP" that things are improving, but the real story is different.
The US is in a recession if you measure economic activity in units, not dollars.
I've been trying to replace my 15 year old car with something newer. I'm seeing a bunch of old $30,000 used cars with 100,000+ miles on them. No way.
So I looked in to new car sales to see what was going on. US car sales are over 1.5 MILLION / year below pre-pandemic levels. That's 1.5 million fewer new cars every year (it was actually more like 5 million in 2020 and 2021) on the roads.
If you are consuming 1.5 MILLION fewer cars every year than you used to, your society is in economic decline.
Before covid lockdowns, we consumed about 17.5 million cars every year. Now we are barely at 16.
It's not a "chip shortage"
It's not a "supply chain problem"
Don't believe me? Look at the supposedly (if you believe our media) poor and backwards nation of China. They quickly recovered from lockdowns and resumed the normal gradual growth rate in line with population growth, as one would expect in a stable society. How is China able to stabilize and even grow its car market while America can't?
The car I am replacing, which I bought years ago for under $10k now sells for $60,000 new. Absolutely insane and unaffordable. If a nation's people are consuming fewer goods and services, then they are becoming poorer (unless they are saving/investing which we know Americans are not).
Just remember that our economy is shrinking in almost every way. Fewer clothes are purchased. Fewer computers. Fewer phones. Fewer books. Fewer cars. Fewer vacations. Fewer meals out. Fewer toys for children. Fewer hobbiest or luxury items (forget having hobbies or small luxuries if you are not ultra-rich). That is by definition a failing state.
Inflation can be used to lie to the people, as it's very possible that car sales measured in Federal Reserve Notes are higher than they were 2 years ago. The media will report that as if it's a good thing--it's a BAD thing as it means cars are more expensive than 2 years ago. On top of that, car unit sales are down. A very grim picture. Also expect a lot more older, noisier and polluting older cars as this problem compounds year after year that these new cars are not hitting our streets.
That's a no brainer unless it's somewhere in Europe with an even worse profile for that continent than the other countries.
Of course. We all know this, so nothing new around here. It's been recession and depression is likely next.
The only good thing about food inflation or lack thereof is the silver lining of the deflation of the fatties.
China and anyone else who buys usa bonds
I agree with you, Max. I've seen similar things myself. The amount of ECB notes in circulation has increased dramatically, and prices have followed suit.
Just last week, I wanted to get my car's oil changed. A normally cheap place wanted 175 euros for the service. I couldn't believe it. I ended up buying oil and filter myself and doing it at home for 50 euros.
Car taxes and insurance are also going up at least 10% per year. And it's not just me. A hotel I used to frequent has increased its prices from 50 euros (in low season) to 130 euros (in low season) in the past 10 years.
I've been doing more and more things myself for this reason. I've repaired my bikes and car, gone camping, and taken a bike vacation. And to be honest I've been enjoying it.
I've also noticed that restaurants and terraces are less busy, hotels are not full, and campsites are not packed (even in high season). The garage where I got my oil changed had three employees just standing around doing nothing. I go less out for dinner, cook more often.
The recession is here. It's not in the amount of money in circulation, but in people's spending power.
It seems Covid money was very unevenly divided, the bureaucratic middle class is doing very well, still getting their 4 euro coffees, their free food at work, their pensions, their 10% raise per year. In my country the state controls 50% of GDP and all bureaucracy, police and teacher got a lot of extra notes, also all the "green renovation companies" got a lot of extra notes.
The normal functioning part of the economy; making and repairing houses and cars, growing and making food, is getting smaller, scarcer and more expensive.
In my country millions of people do completely useless stuff at the government, schools, universities, NGO's, marketing companies.
Look at the global stock exchange and the size of companies:
We see that some IT companies and some banks / investment funds control 50% of all wealth.
Our current wealth system = government + IT companies + banks. (those sit at the table at the Davos conferences)
The IT companies + the banks/investors maybe have 3 million employees globally?
It just shows where money goes, where energy goes, where people go. The health companies on the stock exchange have no nurses, they are patent holding companies.
And the problems we experience and desires we have as normal people; church, food, housing, energy, clothing, cars are not important for the wealthy elite. (see the graph)
The problem is deeply structural. And I think no easy policy will make a change.
So what will they do?
- Let the economy slowly grind to a halt and find a new equilibrium. At these prices, fewer and fewer people will be able to afford to get their oil changed at a garage, buy a car, clothes, food. People will lose their jobs, businesses will close, and salaries will have to be cut.
- Print more money, boosting short-term spending but exacerbating mid-term problems.
Either way, there is and will be pain. The system is so powerful and set in stone it seems, the bureaucracy so large, the wealth imbalance so big, the financial market so disconnected from the human needs.
All the elite talk about is Nvdia, and Indian space travel, and AI.
People at home have trouble paying for a car, home, vacation, food and energy.
We don't care about Nvidia and AI and space travel.
Maybe they can prop it up a few more times, with free notes, but substantial things need to change for stuff to improve I think.
The FED continuing to raise interest rates isn't helping matters any. Punishing the middle class for borrowing isn't slowing inflation when government spending is what continues to be responsible for the bloated money supply.
A jubilee or an end to usery as we know it is the only 'reset' that I can see possibly working. Have the U.S. government mint 2 platinum coins with a $15 Trillion face value for each. Debt paid. Then stop sending money to Ukraine and everywhere else around the world.
A jubilee or an end to usery as we know it is the only 'reset' that I can see possibly working. Have the U.S. government mint 2 platinum coins with a $15 Trillion face value for each. Debt paid. Then stop sending money to Ukraine and everywhere else around the world.
I get where she is coming from and I am not doubting that she and others are struggling financially but note that she is wearing an Apple watch, ear buds and looks like she had a manicure.
I believe it was John T. Reed in his book Hyperinflation and Depression, he stated that in 1930's America women still went to get their hair done.