Incoming Bitcoin crash

xxx

 
The bitcoin phenomenon very closely resembles the dot com bubble of the early 2000s, in that it's unearthing a herd like urge in the general population. First everyone follows the trend to buy high, like sheep, then everyone follows the trend to sell low. When anything starts to attract large amounts of unsophisticated investors -- trouble is very near.

It will only take a slight amount of fear to unleash a complete domino effect that will cause Bitcoin prices to drop dramatically, because average people's emotions are fragile when it comes to their money. We could see a panic starting very soon, seemingly out of no good reason, because of the emotional instability of naive investors that very recently started to buy the coin.

Once the smartest investors realize that the stock cannot go any higher, they will start selling, followed the next tier and so on, until the general population panics and a massive fire sale occurs, causing the stock to disintegrate.

Bitcoin after all is unsustainable, as the energy requirements to mine will just keep growing; the people's faith in the coin will not.
 

Ray Carlton

Robin
Gold Member
xxx said:
The bitcoin phenomenon very closely resembles the dot com bubble of the early 2000s, in that it's unearthing a herd like urge in the general population. First everyone follows the trend to buy high, like sheep, then everyone follows the trend to sell low. When anything starts to attract large amounts of unsophisticated investors -- trouble is very near.

It will only take a slight amount of fear to unleash a complete domino effect that will cause Bitcoin prices to drop dramatically, because average people's emotions are fragile when it comes to their money. We could see a panic starting very soon, seemingly out of no good reason, because of the emotional instability of naive investors that very recently started to buy the coin.

Once the smartest investors realize that the stock cannot go any higher, they will start selling, followed the next tier and so on, until the general population panics and a massive fire sale occurs, causing the stock to disintegrate.

Bitcoin after all is unsustainable, as the energy requirements to mine will just keep growing; the people's faith in the coin will not.

I guess you have put a short on bitcoin then.
 

DeusLuxMeaEst

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
And?

Look, any type of investment has risks. Cryptos are especially volatile and everyone should do their research before investing. If you were hodling BTC bought before 2017 there's no shame in taking profits and playing with house money.

But I don't see the point in these type of fear-mongering posts. The potential risks are known by 99.9% of the membership here. I highly doubt any RVF member is throwing their life savings into one coin. I'd say the vast majority here have an income stream and lifestyle that allows for a potential loss.
 

xxx

 
^
That's the thing, it's not an investment, it's a high priced lottery ticket. It was an investment some years ago, and if you own some you should probably hold on to them until they start to drop, but at this point they're a bet on the emotional stability of sheep.

The strong faith of the original community will soon be irrelevant as the majority owners of the coin will be people who don't believe in it.

When more women start to buy them, the end is near.
 

LINUX

Ostrich
Gold Member
Buying a short on bitcoin would not be very smart. If you want to bet against it at least buy a put where you can control your risk. If you throw in 30k into a bitcoin short and it goes to 40k because of impulse , you’re going to be mortgaging your house to pay your broker back , because they are not going to let you hang on to those shorts very long if the price keeps rising. They’ll call them back and you’ll be fucked.
 

xxx

 
I still think there's time, it's not crashing just yet.

I read a couple of wacky articles about how Bitcoin is different and how it can't crash, and so I felt the need to make this thread. If any of you are experts on making money on bubbles feel free to give me advice.

I make my money buying under priced stock, so I'm all ears when it comes to dealing with bubbles.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
Incredible that this fellow cares enough for the people of this forum that he seems to have made an account just to warn us about this issue.

He might be warning a lot of other people too because his posts look like copy-paste material.

Funny that a lot of these threads are popping up on /pol as well.

So many decent citizens concerned for the investment strategies of total strangers.

Nothing suspicious about it at all.
 

xxx

 
Roosh said:
Are you a nocoiner?

I bought some in may 2016 and sold them at the end of this summer. No regrets, I followed my rules, and got a very good return.

I will definitely be looking into shorting Bitcoin or selling a futures contract in the somewhat near future.

It's a guarantee to crash, it's only about being patient and timing it right; it may after all still blow up a little more before it crashes.
 

xxx

 
Leonard D Neubache said:
Incredible that this fellow cares enough for the people of this forum that he seems to have made an account just to warn us about this issue.

He might be warning a lot of other people too because his posts look like copy-paste material.

Funny that a lot of these threads are popping up on /pol as well.

So many decent citizens concerned for the investment strategies of total strangers.

Nothing suspicious about it at all.

C'mon man it's not at all like that.. I've been reading Roosh's material for 5 almost 6 years now.

And this is the only place I've posted, you can google it yourself.
 

...

Crow
Gold Member
Corrections happen all the time buddy, but it ain't crashing. Too many normies trying to buying in will keep ample demand.
 

whatday

Ostrich
Gold Member
You can't criticize bitcoin, the forum is pro-bitcoin, a lot of people have already bought in and now they need to convince other people to buy in in order to be able to cash out later at a higher price. The behavior is very similar to a cult, look at the social media feeds of your friends before and after they bought bitcoin and you'll see how it affects the mind. The more bitcoin grows, the more benefits/perks the members that joined right before other members get, so the urge to proselytize is very strong.

We're not there yet, but at some point you'll be risking getting banned by pointing out negatives, stick to neutral or positive comments on it.

Shorting bitcoin would be delusional, there's no way to tell the price direction with certainty, but if past trends are indicative of the future, shorting is a horrible idea. Plus your upside on a short is limited to 100%, as opposed to unlimited upside on a long position, so if you're going to use it as a gambling vehicle, going long is the way to go.

Also, if a group of nerds and libertarians brought bitcoin to close to 20k, can you imagine where it will go once the popular kids get on board, once it gets its first celebrity endorsements?

If I was into gambling, which is the only one of bitcoin's use cases I would have a use for at the moment, and is also a very common use case for many, many people buying bitcoin right now, I would be doing everything I can to get celebrity endorsements. Even just getting hot girls on instagram to say a few words would work. Let's say you have $100,000 in bitcoin or whatnot, it wouldn't be a bad idea to give a tiny amount of bitcoin to some mega-influencer young women on instagram or other social apps. Every person that buys has a vested interest in getting more people to buy in, so if you can get social media influencers (as in, hot girls) to buy in, this thing could go all the way to $1,000,000 a coin or more.

Think of a campaign hashtag like #raiseAwarenessBTC or something more catchy, I'm sure some of the forum members with a stronger marketing background could come up with something that works. Give bitcoins, even if only a small amount, whatever, to social media influencers, imagine what happens to the price if someone like The Rock mentions he's bought in? The Rock would be hard to get because he's already rich, so he doesn't need your bitcoin, but look for people with not too much money, but lots of followers to bring onboard, they'll be more likely to jump on for a smaller amount. If you have a larger amount to give, then by all means, sign up a whale.

You could even give it a cute Christmas theme, disguise the self-interest in the spirit of Christmas, say, #ChristmasBTC or whatnot, with Santa Claus images attached and cute reindeer.

Nonstop mentions, nonstop articles, take over everyone's mindspace until you get as many people onboard as possible.
 

RexImperator

Crow
Gold Member
Tulip bulb mania all over again...

http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20160419-tulip-mania-the-flowers-that-cost-more-than-houses

When word got out, during the 1630s, that tulip bulbs were being sold for ever-increasing prices, more and more speculators piled in to the market. The intricacies of this market, as well as its frailties, are brilliantly outlined by the historian Mike Dash in Tulipomania: The Story of the World’s Most Coveted Flower and the Extraordinary Passions It Aroused (1999).

One of the curiosities of the 17th Century tulip market was that people did not trade the flowers themselves but rather the bulbs of scarce and sought-after varieties. The result, as Dash points out, was “what would today be called a futures market”. Tulips even began to be used as a form of money in their own right: in 1633, actual properties were sold for handfuls of bulbs.

As people heard stories of acquaintances making unheard-of profits simply by buying and selling tulip bulbs, they decided to get in on the act – and prices skyrocketed. In 1633, a single bulb of Semper Augustus was already worth an astonishing 5,500 guilders. By the first month of 1637, this had almost doubled, to 10,000 guilders. Dash puts this sum in context: “It was enough to feed, clothe and house a whole Dutch family for half a lifetime, or sufficient to purchase one of the grandest homes on the most fashionable canal in Amsterdam for cash, complete with a coach house and an 80-ft (25-m) garden – and this at a time when homes in that city were as expensive as property anywhere in the world.”

Things came to a head during the winter of 1636-37, when tulip mania reached its peak. By then, thousands of people within the United Provinces, including cobblers, carpenters, bricklayers and woodcutters, were indulging in frenzied trading, which often took place in smoky tavern backrooms. (Drink was a significant factor in the generally intoxicated mood.) Some bulbs even changed hands up to 10 times during the course of a single day.

And then, overnight, the tavern trade disappeared. In early February 1637, the market for tulips collapsed. This was because most speculators could no longer afford to purchase even the cheapest bulbs. Demand disappeared, and flowers tumbled to a tenth of their former values. The result was the prospect of financial catastrophe for many. Disputes over debts rumbled on for years.
 

Biz

Kingfisher
Out of all the people I've encountered who either bash bitcoin or bring up "bubble" or "tulips" 100% of them do not own Bitcoin... which does not surprise me one bit

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/

There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever

When tulips came to the Netherlands, all the world went mad. A sailor who mistook a rare tulip bulb for an onion and ate it with his herring sandwich was charged with a felony and thrown in prison. A bulb named Semper Augustus, notable for its flame-like white and red petals, sold for more than the cost of a mansion in a fashionable Amsterdam neighborhood, complete with coach and garden. As the tulip market grew, speculation exploded, with traders offering exorbitant prices for bulbs that had yet to flower. And then, as any financial bubble will do, the tulip market imploded, sending traders of all incomes into ruin.

For decades, economists have pointed to 17th-century tulipmania as a warning about the perils of the free market. Writers and historians have reveled in the absurdity of the event. The incident even provides the backdrop for the new film Tulip Fever, based on a novel of the same name by Deborah Moggach.

The only problem: none of these stories are true.

What really happened and how did the story of Dutch tulip speculation get so distorted? Anne Goldgar discovered the historical reality when she dug into the archives to research her book, Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age.

“I always joke that the book should be called ‘Tulipmania: More Boring Than You Thought,’” says Goldgar, a professor of early modern history at King’s College London. “People are so interested in this incident because they think they can draw lessons from it. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case.”

But before you even attempt to apply what happened in the Netherlands to more recent bubbles—the South Sea Bubble in 1700s England, the 19th-century railway bubble, the dot-com bubble and bitcoin are just a few comparisons Goldgar has seen—you have to understand Dutch society at the turn of the 17th century.

For starters, the country experienced a major demographic shift during its war for independence from Spain, which began in the 1560s and continued into the 1600s. It was during this period that merchants arrived in port cities like Amsterdam, Haarlem and Delft and established trading outfits, including the famous Dutch East India Company. This explosion in international commerce brought enormous fortune to the Netherlands, despite the war. In their newly independent nation, the Dutch were mainly led by urban oligarchies comprised of wealthy merchants, unlike other European countries of the era, which were controlled by landed nobility. As Goldgar writes in her book, “The resultant new faces, new money and new ideas helped to revolutionize the Dutch economy in the late 16th century.”

As the economy changed, so, too, did social interactions and cultural values. A growing interest in natural history and a fascination with the exotic among the merchant class meant that goods from the Ottoman Empire and farther east fetched high prices. The influx of these goods also drove men of all social classes to acquire expertise in newly in-demand areas. One example Goldgar gives is fish auctioneer Adriaen Coenen, whose watercolor-illustrated manuscript Whale Book allowed him to actually meet the President of Holland. And when Dutch botanist Carolus Clusius established a botanical garden at the University of Leiden in the 1590s, the tulip quickly rose to a place of honor.

Originally found growing wild in the valleys of the Tien Shan Mountains (at the border where China and Tibet meet Afghanistan and Russia), tulips were cultivated in Istanbul as early as 1055. By the 15th century, Sultan Mehmed II of the Ottoman Empire had so many flowers in his 12 gardens that he required a staff of 920 gardeners. Tulips were among the most prized flowers, eventually becoming a symbol of the Ottomans, writes gardening correspondent for The Independent Anna Pavord in The Tulip.

The Dutch learned that tulips could be grown from seeds or buds that grew on the mother bulb; a bulb that grows from seed would take 7 to 12 years before flowering, but a bulb itself could flower the very next year. Of particular interest to Clusius and other tulip traders were “broken bulbs”—tulips whose petals showed a striped, multicolor pattern rather than a single solid color. The effect was unpredictable, but the growing demand for these rare, “broken bulb” tulips led naturalists to study ways to reproduce them. (The pattern was later discovered to be the result of a mosaic virus that actually makes the bulbs sickly and less likely to reproduce.) “The high market price for tulips to which the current version of tulipmania refers were prices for particularly beautiful broken bulbs,” writes economist Peter Garber. “Since breaking was unpredictable, some have characterized tulipmania among growers as a gamble, with growers vying to produce better and more bizarre variegations and feathering.”

After all the money Dutch speculators spent on the bulbs, they only produced flowers for about a week—but for tulip lovers, that week was a glorious one. “As luxury objects, tulips fit well into a culture of both abundant capital and new cosmopolitanism,” Goldgar writes. Tulips required expertise, an appreciation of beauty and the exotic, and, of course, an abundance of money.

Here’s where the myth comes into play. According to popular legend, the tulip craze took hold of all levels of Dutch society in the 1630s. “The rage among the Dutch to possess them was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade,” wrote Scottish journalist Charles Mackay in his popular 1841 work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. According to this narrative, everyone from the wealthiest merchants to the poorest chimney sweeps jumped into the tulip fray, buying bulbs at high prices and selling them for even more. Companies formed just to deal with the tulip trade, which reached a fever pitch in late 1636. But by February 1637, the bottom fell out of the market. More and more people defaulted on their agreement to buy the tulips at the prices they’d promised, and the traders who had already made their payments were left in debt or bankrupted. At least that’s what has always been claimed.

In fact, “There weren’t that many people involved and the economic repercussions were pretty minor,” Goldgar says. “I couldn’t find anybody that went bankrupt. If there had been really a wholesale destruction of the economy as the myth suggests, that would’ve been a much harder thing to face.”

That’s not to say that everything about the story is wrong; merchants really did engage in a frantic tulip trade, and they paid incredibly high prices for some bulbs. And when a number of buyers announced they couldn’t pay the high price previously agreed upon, the market did fall apart and cause a small crisis—but only because it undermined social expectations.

“In this case it was very difficult to deal with the fact that almost all of your relationships are based on trust, and people said, ‘I don’t care that I said I’m going to buy this thing, I don’t want it anymore and I’m not going to pay for it.’ There was really no mechanism to make people pay because the courts were unwilling to get involved,” Goldgar says.

But the trade didn’t affect all levels of society, and it didn’t cause the collapse of industry in Amsterdam and elsewhere. As Garber, the economist, writes, “While the lack of data precludes a solid conclusion, the results of the study indicate that the bulb speculation was not obvious madness.”

So if tulipmania wasn’t actually a calamity, why was it made out to be one? We have tetchy Christian moralists to blame for that. With great wealth comes great social anxiety, or as historian Simon Schama writes in The Embarrassment of Riches: An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age, “The prodigious quality of their success went to their heads, but it also made them a bit queasy.” All the outlandish stories of economic ruin, of an innocent sailor thrown in prison for eating a tulip bulb, of chimney sweeps wading into the market in hopes of striking it rich—those come from propaganda pamphlets published by Dutch Calvinists worried that the tulip-propelled consumerism boom would lead to societal decay. Their insistence that such great wealth was ungodly has even stayed with us to this day.

“Some of the stuff hasn’t lasted, like the idea that God punishes people who are overreaching by causing them to have the plague. That’s one of the things people said in the 1630s,” Goldgar says. “But the idea that you get punished if you overreach? You still hear that. It’s all, ‘pride goes before the fall.’”

Goldgar doesn’t begrudge novelists and filmmakers for taking liberties with the past. It’s only when historians and economists neglect to do their research that she gets irked. She herself didn’t set out to be a mythbuster—she only stumbled upon the truth when she sat down to look through old documentation of the popular legend. “I had no way of knowing this existed before I started reading these documents,” Goldgar says. “That was an unexpected treasure.”
 
Bitcoin is riding the wave of normie lemmings jumping in right now.

It's kind of like when the Boomers figured out Facebook and took over the platform so now nobody cool uses it.

There are other more promising crypto currencies out there. My issue with bitcoin (outrageous mining fees and slow ass transactions aside) is that it isn't that private or secure. There's been umpteen news stories lately illustrating that.
 

DeusLuxMeaEst

Pelican
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
It's always good to be critical and think for yourself. It's never a good idea to just invest on emotion.

A huge asset in life is having a great attitude and being able to bounce back from setbacks.

When I read certain posters, you can tell that they have a hater mentality. A lot of the bitcoin hating seems like sour grapes. And what can you expect from people with a doom and gloom outlook? I'm pretty sure they've been predicting a massive crash in everything for the last decade.

I recommended bitcoin to some people a few years ago. I gave them my reasons, forwarded the white paper, and told them it wouldn't be a bad idea to just throw in some $$ they could afford to lose. None of them decided to invest.

The other day one of them asked me "So when are you going to take us on like an all-expense paid vacation?"

Sure buddy. These people want all the perks while doing none of the work. They want all the benefits with no skin of the game.

Will an economic/bitcoin crash come? Most definitely, everything is cyclical. But who do you think is going to fair better, the jackass who wants it all to burn or the go getter who's constantly learning and striving to be better?

Your attitude and how you respond to circumstances determines nearly everything. Remember that.
 
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