Incoming Bitcoin crash

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
yaku said:
PolymathGuru said:
Now that prices have stabilized, it is reasonable to start buying bitcoin.

Down almost 10% since you wrote this.

You seem to be snakebit as far as your predictions are going.

In recent times, it seems that RVF guys have become a bit less aggressive in their various negative bitcoin predictions, as compared with last year and even earlier than that.

It seems that the most recent BTC price surge from $3k-ish to $19k between August and December took a lot of steam out of the negative assertiveness of a good deal of guys.

Surely other coins are pumping too, and surely some guys are doing better by having a portfolio in other coins rather than sticking to a mostly bitcoin focus, so there can certainly be some individual variance.

Of course, when BTC prices had gone from $3k to $19k, there were going to be BTC is a bubble assertions, such as this the assertion of the OP of this thread, that end up seeming to be correct, but also decently sized corrections have already taken place from December to present to bring BTC down to $5,920 in early February and then $6,440 in early April.

Price downtrends can take a while to happen, so it remains unclear whether this particular BTC price downtrend is over yet or if it is going to continue, and whether PolymathGuru's "buy" suggestion from May 14 seems prudent.

Personally, if I was just getting into bitcoin, I think that developing a BTC buy strategy now, and accumulating bitcoin now, would not be a bad starting point, and surely, I think that the odds are a bit against any guy that would be waiting for BTC prices below $6k, even though that is possible, too, and even waiting for BTC prices to continue to drop from here might not be to be a very prudent approach for anyone who has no stake in BTC.

On the other hand, I tend to be a bit of a broken record in my seemingly ongoing suggestions that the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, and the second best time to buy bitcoin is today... .hahahahahhahaaha..

but still no matter when you start to buy BTC, you need to tailor an approach that works for you and your budget, timeline and circumstances, so even if you had begun to buy in the about $8,350 to $8,900 price range (as the price had been fluctuating on the day of PolymahtGuru's post), you would not have been in a bad time to get started in bitcoin, so long as you continued to figure out an individualized strategy that might include buying as the BTC price goes down (or buying on price dips, as some might describe it).
 

M3B

Ostrich
Gold Member
I can make a case from a chart perspective of Bitcoin going down to around $1,000 which is the origin of the parabolic move up. I usually see (on much smaller scales) price always moving back towards its origin after a big swing up.

Of course there are many other fundamental factors at play, but there's no denying the downward momentum. We've tested key resistance levels only once ($8,900, $10,000 and $11,000) and have had very big rejections from each of them. We've had no strength to even test deep into those levels and have only been at them for a very short period of time. The next big key resistance is at the $13,000 mark and we've not even got close to testing that yet.

If we get down to $1,000 though I'm throwing everything I own at Bitcoin. I won't really but you know what I mean.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Matt3B said:
I can make a case from a chart perspective of Bitcoin going down to around $1,000 which is the origin of the parabolic move up. I usually see (on much smaller scales) price always moving back towards its origin after a big swing up.

Of course there are many other fundamental factors at play, but there's no denying the downward momentum. We've tested key resistance levels only once ($8,900, $10,000 and $11,000) and have had very big rejections from each of them. We've had no strength to even test deep into those levels and have only been at them for a very short period of time. The next big key resistance is at the $13,000 mark and we've not even got close to testing that yet.

If we get down to $1,000 though I'm throwing everything I own at Bitcoin. I won't really but you know what I mean.

As you know, the current direction, of the past weeks is down, and seemingly accelerating in the past days, so discussion of upwards resistance seems less relevant at the moment.

On the way down, if you are only taking action at $1k, then you might be waiting a long, long time, no, and perhaps locked out of the buying game?

I anticipate that there are going to be support between $6,500 and $7,500, and if that support breaks, then price will likely get into the $4ks, so the next area of support would be $3k to $4k. I really don't expect support between $3k to $4k to break, but never say never in bitcoinlandia.

I have not changed my own BTC practice, which continues to be buying on the way down.. sometimes I might tweak my increments and my amounts, but largely I have buy orders in place below $6k that continue and had not been touched in the previous dips... Currently, I don't have any plans to change those buy orders, and I am not even convinced, yet that support is going to break in the $6,500 to $7,500 arena that would cause those buy orders to fill.... Call me an ongoing BTC price optimist. :blush:
 

M3B

Ostrich
Gold Member
Haha no, I'm not waiting solely for $1,000 mate. I think like you said $3-4k seems reasonable. I'm trading it and accumulating BTC on the way down. It would be nice to catch the bottom with some leverage but I have cash aside to throw at Bitcoin as we get lower too.
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
Matt3B said:
Haha no, I'm not waiting solely for $1,000 mate. I think like you said $3-4k seems reasonable. I'm trading it and accumulating BTC on the way down. It would be nice to catch the bottom with some leverage but I have cash aside to throw at Bitcoin as we get lower too.


O.k. We may be engaged in a similar buying on the way down practice, while holding funds in reserve for possible lower dips. I have funds available for $1k and below, too, but I really don't think that the price is going to go below $3k...

So, in essence, I am saying $3k to $4k to be within plausible extremes, but I would not characterize $3k to $4k as any kind of reasonable waiting-for price expectation - even though I do understand that some guys do wait for extreme conditions before they end up buying, which to me just seems like a nearly impossible task to time and then to really identify and take action on such... for example waiting for $1k or even below $3k to buy would seem to me to be a purposefully created situation that will cause non-action.. and I take a much more active approach, especially when it comes to bitcoin investing.
 

PharaohRa

Kingfisher
It looks like 2018 is following somewhat the pattern of 2013 in that after the big spike, it trended downwards for 2 years only to stay flat for 2 years and climb upward in 2017. I think that this pattern will accelerate faster only because more people now recognize cryptocurrency. However, they are still shaky due to the direction of the market.

For anyone who is thinking about buying, I would wait until the bottom is reached (could be 3 to 4k or 6k or 7k). Once the bottom has been established, then buy with both hands!
 

Graft

Kingfisher
Gold Member
PharaohRa said:
It looks like 2018 is following somewhat the pattern of 2013 in that after the big spike, it trended downwards for 2 years only to stay flat for 2 years and climb upward in 2017. I think that this pattern will accelerate faster only because more people now recognize cryptocurrency. However, they are still shaky due to the direction of the market.

For anyone who is thinking about buying, I would wait until the bottom is reached (could be 3 to 4k or 6k or 7k). Once the bottom has been established, then buy with both hands!

2 year downtrend-2 year flat is a long time this late in the game-multiple blockchains are getting major adoption and huge projects are in talks with governments. It's not like 2013 where it was mostly bitcoin speculation.
 

Dvorak

Sparrow
Graft said:
PharaohRa said:
It looks like 2018 is following somewhat the pattern of 2013 in that after the big spike, it trended downwards for 2 years only to stay flat for 2 years and climb upward in 2017. I think that this pattern will accelerate faster only because more people now recognize cryptocurrency. However, they are still shaky due to the direction of the market.

For anyone who is thinking about buying, I would wait until the bottom is reached (could be 3 to 4k or 6k or 7k). Once the bottom has been established, then buy with both hands!

2 year downtrend-2 year flat is a long time this late in the game-multiple blockchains are getting major adoption and huge projects are in talks with governments. It's not like 2013 where it was mostly bitcoin speculation.
Might go down a bit more, but no way we are getting a 2 year flat trend.
Might stay choppy/depressed for a while, but next bull run will probably be bigger than the previous one. I would be very surprised if we don't have one this year.

Banks and big companies are now hiring crypto people, setting up trade desks etc... They know what's coming and they want to be a part of it.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member
gework said:
Now, we're looking at going down. I think it will very likely go back to $7K over the next week

Currently at $7,300 and it looks bad.

Screenshot_at_2018_05_24_13_51_23.png


Those Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze hard; and the squeezes usually correspond with considerable movements and trend shifts. The last time we had a major squeeze on 1W candles was October 2016 when Bitcoin was $630 and started to FOMO up to $20K.

The bottom band is currently at $6K and that was the support it bounced off in November when it boomed up to $20K. It's roughly bounced twice off $6K twice since.

All MACDs are pointing down. RSI is also getting close to pushing below levels not seen since Aug 2015 when it bottomed to about $170; and was where the bull market started.

Compare to the Gox crash.

Screenshot_at_2018_05_24_14_03_05.png


It pinged off the bottom BBand and then doubled. If it does that again we are looking at a ping off $6K and then doubling to $12K, which is a potential target I eyed. Alternative is it just plunged. But you can tell from this thread and others there are plenty of people who will buy at $5-6K. But

gework said:
my longer term sentiment is that the movements up and down will get smaller and we'll move towards dribbling down with a few anemic pumps. If it breaks $6K I expect it to test $4K and at the lowest $2K.

If it gets around or below 30 RSI on 1W it's all in. Bitcoin has always been a killer buy and bounced off 30 RSI. That's what I'm waiting for as a hold. Though will likely buy this current dip.
 

Orson

Kingfisher
"Crypto Crash?" Incoming Bitcoin crash is the name of this thread.

I note that most Roosh fora at this mometn have around 100 visitors, while this particular one has only 5 or 6.

Does that fit the definition of a Bitcoin Crash?
 
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