Incoming Bitcoin crash

Thomas the Rhymer

Ostrich
Gold Member
Bitcoin does seem to be suffering from irrational exuberance...

bitcoin%20tulip%20mania%201_0.jpg


Source is Zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-tulip-mania-now-biggest-bubble-world-history

Disclaimer: I don't own Bitcoin. I just find price swings fascinating. Based on my own rules that I developed while investing in stocks, Bitcoin is in a bubble and I'm interested to see if my rules will turn out to be correct.
 

Kona

Crow
Gold Member
SamuelBRoberts said:
OK, let's talk this through then.

"Fundamentals always win in the long run."

Where are some cases in Cryptocurrency where "Fundamentals have won in the long run?" I'm pretty knowledge about this and I can't think of any, baring egregious examples like HTMLcoin's 51% attack that lead to a network collapse. The truth is, whether any of us like it or not, that fundamentals simply do not matter in this space.

In the crypto biz, what exactly is " the long run" Considering this stuff is so new?

Aloha!
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
Samseau said:
Maciano said:
You clearly haven't been thinking this stuff through.

1) The word "crypto" is a red herring. There's bitcoin, and then there are scamcoins. All these non-bitcoin cryptos are useless, senseless and long term worthless. Bitcoin, however, is useful, valuable, sensible and valuable.

Non-bitcoin cryptos combined are a worse investment than fiat because they proliferate like rabbits and are indeed hyperinflationary. That has nothing to do with bitcoin.

2) National crypto is a contradiction in terms. Cryptos are designed to be denationalized, global. A national crypto is complete nonsense. It is so ridiculous an idea that it can only come from a government agency.

3) The whole idea behind bitcoin is that it can't be censored. It can't be banned, because you can't ban P2P systems, especially when you use them smart and safe. Just like governments can't ban bittorrent. Also, bitcoin can be send by satellite, radio, USB stick or the internet -- transmission methods are endless. It's unstoppable, unless the internet gets switched off completely. But even then, it's doubtful.

How is Bitcoin any better than Monero? Monero actually provides security, Bitcoin is a just a slow overpriced coin that rides on hype. Bitcoin will get taxed and regulated to death, and people will wonder why they ever bought it in the first place.

I actually like Monero, and Litecoin for that matter. Useful altcoins that are not hindering bitcoin in any way. I don't know why I should hold Monero because it hasn't got the network effects of bitcoin to make much of a difference. Though, if I wanted to buy drugs, I'd definitely use Monero (no diss, I think this is a good quality.) But come on, man... Monero scales much worse than bitcoin. Just check out what lead dev Riccardo "FluffyPony" Spagni has said about this himself.

Bitcoin is secure enough, if you go buy bitcoin from localbitcoins.con with cash, you're 100% pseudo-anonymous. It will be impossible to trace your bitcoins back to you. (If you're interested in this, I recommend you read Kristov Atlas' book "Anonymous Bitcoin")

People are buying bitcoin because it's the biggest crypto and its tech is cutting-edge. I'm not going to spell out why Segwit, Lightning, Rootstock, CT, MimbleWimble, sidechains, drivechains matter. You really are going to have to google and understand this stuff yourself. The only crypto that comes close in dev activity & projects -- and with close, I still mean very far behind -- is Ethereum. And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

But in general, I'm not against Monero at all, I think it's a cool project and it's got a useful usecase.
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
yaku said:
The main guys at Bitcoin Cash are one of the sleaziest cast of characters in the crypto world.

If something causes a flippening, it won't be Bitcoin Cash.

There won't be a flippening, ever. That's just more FUD, like all the premature 'finance experts' who have declared bitcoin dead 100s of times.

The Facebook-MySpace analogy holds for shitty bitcoin companies that grew much too fast on bitcoin's tail, like BitPay, Coinbase and Blockchain.info (lol) These companies will be acquired by either Wall Street or Silicon Valley giants or Netscaped out of existence.

Also MySpace and Facebook were founded only 2 years apart. Bitcoin is already 9 years old. The competition there is -- Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Ripple -- is a joke. They're all scams of epic proportions. Just ignore all this nonsense. Put away some bitcoin, and don't look back until 2020.
 
Maciano said:
The Facebook-MySpace analogy holds for shitty bitcoin companies that grew much too fast on bitcoin's tail, like BitPay, Coinbase and Blockchain.info (lol) These companies will be acquired by either Wall Street or Silicon Valley giants or Netscaped out of existence.

Also MySpace and Facebook were founded only 2 years apart. Bitcoin is already 9 years old. The competition there is -- Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Ripple -- is a joke. They're all scams of epic proportions. Just ignore all this nonsense. Put away some bitcoin, and don't look back until 2020.

Meh, they're all useless car wash tokens, including BTC. What matters is that they make money. If you make money off Ripple, even if it's dumb, then that's real money. I said IOTA was dumb, and I was right, but the guys who invested in the dumb thing made real money, despite the dumbness.

There's solid evidence to think that what happened with BTC was unregulated wash trading continuing long enough to attract enough outside interest to legitimize it. I'm glad this happened, because I've made a bunch of money off of it, but it's goofy to say that it's because BTC is technologically superior.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
SamuelBRoberts said:
OK, let's talk this through then.

When is "the long run"? What target market is going to be making large purchases of this coin? It's not the financial system, the financial system has made its choice to legitimize BTC. It's not mom and pop investors, "It's like BTC, but it lets you evade taxes!" is not a compelling sales point for that group. So who is it?

BTC's transaction fees are higher than they've ever been, times are slower than they've ever been, and the price is soaring.

"Fundamentals always win in the long run."

Where are some cases in Cryptocurrency where "Fundamentals have won in the long run?" I'm pretty knowledge about this and I can't think of any, baring egregious examples like HTMLcoin's 51% attack that lead to a network collapse. The truth is, whether any of us like it or not, that fundamentals simply do not matter in this space.

You haven't seen fundamentals win in the long run because this stuff is too new. But eventually it will play out with the more powerful tech taking over, just as Google (Monero) overtook AOL (BTC).

DQ3ee9BWkAAdS--.jpg


If people cannot see the awesome power of having invisible money, then they are limited by their imagination. Monero promises true freedom in this world. Both wonderful and terrifying.
 
If people cannot see the awesome power of having invisible money, then they are limited by their imagination. Monero promises true freedom in this world. Both wonderful and terrifying.
You can launder money, buy illegal shit, and if you get paid in it you don't have to pay taxes. Assuming it works, which you don't know that it does.
There's a use case for this, sure, but how is this thing gonna overtake BTC?
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
Maciano said:
Samseau said:
Maciano said:
You clearly haven't been thinking this stuff through.

1) The word "crypto" is a red herring. There's bitcoin, and then there are scamcoins. All these non-bitcoin cryptos are useless, senseless and long term worthless. Bitcoin, however, is useful, valuable, sensible and valuable.

Non-bitcoin cryptos combined are a worse investment than fiat because they proliferate like rabbits and are indeed hyperinflationary. That has nothing to do with bitcoin.

2) National crypto is a contradiction in terms. Cryptos are designed to be denationalized, global. A national crypto is complete nonsense. It is so ridiculous an idea that it can only come from a government agency.

3) The whole idea behind bitcoin is that it can't be censored. It can't be banned, because you can't ban P2P systems, especially when you use them smart and safe. Just like governments can't ban bittorrent. Also, bitcoin can be send by satellite, radio, USB stick or the internet -- transmission methods are endless. It's unstoppable, unless the internet gets switched off completely. But even then, it's doubtful.

How is Bitcoin any better than Monero? Monero actually provides security, Bitcoin is a just a slow overpriced coin that rides on hype. Bitcoin will get taxed and regulated to death, and people will wonder why they ever bought it in the first place.

I actually like Monero, and Litecoin for that matter. Useful altcoins that are not hindering bitcoin in any way. I don't know why I should hold Monero because it hasn't got the network effects of bitcoin to make much of a difference. Though, if I wanted to buy drugs, I'd definitely use Monero (no diss, I think this is a good quality.) But come on, man... Monero scales much worse than bitcoin. Just check out what lead dev Riccardo "FluffyPony" Spagni has said about this himself.

According to his website, Monero has built in scalability. They are working on bulletproofs to reduce the size of transactions by 80% or more by next year.

I don't think you know what you're talking about here. The dev himself says it scales and its working Blockchain is proof that it can scale amazingly well.

Bitcoin is secure enough, if you go buy bitcoin from localbitcoins.com with cash, you're 100% pseudo-anonymous. It will be impossible to trace your bitcoins back to you. (If you're interested in this, I recommend you read Kristov Atlas' book "Anonymous Bitcoin")

While this is somewhat true, you're missing the point. The point is to be able to spend your currency without being known. Having to use cash to buy something is already fairly anonymous but not entirely since all bills are traceable.

BTC isn't useful as actual currency, which is why it is a giant bubble scam. What is the usecase of BTC?

It's got hype. Great. Hope you can sell before the market collapses and no one can pull out because the mempool is clogged up the ass.

People are buying bitcoin because it's the biggest crypto and its tech is cutting-edge. I'm not going to spell out why Segwit, Lightning, Rootstock, CT, MimbleWimble, sidechains, drivechains matter. You really are going to have to google and understand this stuff yourself. The only crypto that comes close in dev activity & projects -- and with close, I still mean very far behind -- is Ethereum. And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

While I will not defend the other altcoins, if BTC was cutting edge why is it unable to handle transactions at 16K right now? BTC has been around for 8 years and there has been no real progress on its development. The original dev is nowhere to be found, and the people working on the project spend most of their time on bureaucracy instead of actual coding.

While I will not deny that BTC's price can go much higher, the risk involved is not worth it, and the people running it do not inspire any confidence whatsoever.

But in general, I'm not against Monero at all, I think it's a cool project and it's got a useful usecase.

Monero actually has a use, unlike BTC and all the other scamcoins. Currently BTC's only claim to fame is that it's an "investment," which will be popped as soon as the current global market bubble pops.

Once people rush back into fiat, BTC will crash and burn like the fad it always was.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
SamuelBRoberts said:
If people cannot see the awesome power of having invisible money, then they are limited by their imagination. Monero promises true freedom in this world. Both wonderful and terrifying.
You can launder money, buy illegal shit, and if you get paid in it you don't have to pay taxes. Assuming it works, which you don't know that it does.
There's a use case for this, sure, but how is this thing gonna overtake BTC?

Because BTC has zero advantages over traditional banking, whereas Monero is private, fast, secure, and decentralized. BTC's decentralization is going away with the "lightning" network.

BTC is nothing more a global stock anyone can buy shares of, it has zero value in day to day use. It does not promote freedom, it is not fast, and it is expensive. Zero advantages over regular dollar bills.

It's got hype though. If you're feeling lucky you can ride the hype. How high can you hold before it crashes? Everyone loves a game of chicken.
 

MikeS

Pelican
Is Monero actually private and untraceable if you bought it with eg. BTC which you in turn bought from an exchange like Coinbase or pretty much any other place that's not face to face in cash through localbitcoins?
Sure, what you do with your Monero might be stealthy - and I'm sure that's useful to some people - but the authorities will still be able to track the pre-Monero steps and learn how much you have invested. So if you're trying to eg. sneakily hide money from your ex-wife who wants to fleece you for all you've got, and has a good chance of succeeding in some countries, it looks to me like you'll definitely need to buy those Monero - or first step BTC - in cash?
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
MikeS said:
Is Monero actually private and untraceable if you bought it with eg. BTC which you in turn bought from an exchange like Coinbase or pretty much any other place that's not face to face in cash through localbitcoins?
Sure, what you do with your Monero might be stealthy - and I'm sure that's useful to some people - but the authorities will still be able to track the pre-Monero steps and learn how much you have invested. So if you're trying to eg. sneakily hide money from your ex-wife who wants to fleece you for all you've got, and has a good chance of succeeding in some countries, it looks to me like you'll definitely need to buy those Monero - or first step BTC - in cash?

Authorities could figure out initial purchases of Monero, but then you can just move it around from wallet to wallet inside the Mondero system and no one would know where it is except the wallet creator.

You can tell people you spent it on hookers and blow. No one would be able to prove otherwise.
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
Samseau said:
Maciano said:
Samseau said:
Maciano said:
You clearly haven't been thinking this stuff through.

1) The word "crypto" is a red herring. There's bitcoin, and then there are scamcoins. All these non-bitcoin cryptos are useless, senseless and long term worthless. Bitcoin, however, is useful, valuable, sensible and valuable.

Non-bitcoin cryptos combined are a worse investment than fiat because they proliferate like rabbits and are indeed hyperinflationary. That has nothing to do with bitcoin.

2) National crypto is a contradiction in terms. Cryptos are designed to be denationalized, global. A national crypto is complete nonsense. It is so ridiculous an idea that it can only come from a government agency.

3) The whole idea behind bitcoin is that it can't be censored. It can't be banned, because you can't ban P2P systems, especially when you use them smart and safe. Just like governments can't ban bittorrent. Also, bitcoin can be send by satellite, radio, USB stick or the internet -- transmission methods are endless. It's unstoppable, unless the internet gets switched off completely. But even then, it's doubtful.

How is Bitcoin any better than Monero? Monero actually provides security, Bitcoin is a just a slow overpriced coin that rides on hype. Bitcoin will get taxed and regulated to death, and people will wonder why they ever bought it in the first place.

I actually like Monero, and Litecoin for that matter. Useful altcoins that are not hindering bitcoin in any way. I don't know why I should hold Monero because it hasn't got the network effects of bitcoin to make much of a difference. Though, if I wanted to buy drugs, I'd definitely use Monero (no diss, I think this is a good quality.) But come on, man... Monero scales much worse than bitcoin. Just check out what lead dev Riccardo "FluffyPony" Spagni has said about this himself.

According to his website, Monero has built in scalability. They are working on bulletproofs to reduce the size of transactions by 80% or more by next year.

I don't think you know what you're talking about here. The dev himself says it scales and its working Blockchain is proof that it can scale amazingly well.

Bitcoin is secure enough, if you go buy bitcoin from localbitcoins.com with cash, you're 100% pseudo-anonymous. It will be impossible to trace your bitcoins back to you. (If you're interested in this, I recommend you read Kristov Atlas' book "Anonymous Bitcoin")

While this is somewhat true, you're missing the point. The point is to be able to spend your currency without being known. Having to use cash to buy something is already fairly anonymous but not entirely since all bills are traceable.

BTC isn't useful as actual currency, which is why it is a giant bubble scam. What is the usecase of BTC?

It's got hype. Great. Hope you can sell before the market collapses and no one can pull out because the mempool is clogged up the ass.

People are buying bitcoin because it's the biggest crypto and its tech is cutting-edge. I'm not going to spell out why Segwit, Lightning, Rootstock, CT, MimbleWimble, sidechains, drivechains matter. You really are going to have to google and understand this stuff yourself. The only crypto that comes close in dev activity & projects -- and with close, I still mean very far behind -- is Ethereum. And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

While I will not defend the other altcoins, if BTC was cutting edge why is it unable to handle transactions at 16K right now? BTC has been around for 8 years and there has been no real progress on its development. The original dev is nowhere to be found, and the people working on the project spend most of their time on bureaucracy instead of actual coding.

While I will not deny that BTC's price can go much higher, the risk involved is not worth it, and the people running it do not inspire any confidence whatsoever.

But in general, I'm not against Monero at all, I think it's a cool project and it's got a useful usecase.

Monero actually has a use, unlike BTC and all the other scamcoins. Currently BTC's only claim to fame is that it's an "investment," which will be popped as soon as the current global market bubble pops.

Once people rush back into fiat, BTC will crash and burn like the fad it always was.

Samseau, go buy monero.

We'll compare in 3 years.

We'll see who did & didn't understand.
 

Kona

Crow
Gold Member
I'm putting some bitcoin where samseaus mouth is and picking up some Montero today.

I still feel like the IRS is gonna kick my door in over bitcoin cash, but oh well.

Aloha!
 

godfather dust

Hummingbird
Gold Member
With current fees bitcoin does not make sense to use as a currency.

Yesterday I wanted to make a 115 dollar purchase. I bought 150 dollars of btc thinking I'd be able to get it in my electrum wallet and have a few dollars left. I made a transfer from coinbase to blockchain and there was an 18 dollar fee. To get it to my electrum with another 18 dollar fee I wouldn't be left with enough to make the purchase.

So we have a bubble on a currency that doesn't make sense to use as a currency. I agree, crash coming soon.
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
churros said:
Maciano said:
And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

Bold. Why?

The whole point of a block chain is that transactions are set in stone. They are immutable. Forever. Unalterable. What do Ethereum devs say: we'll roll back the block chain. If that's what they want, why don't they just AWS data centers for their cryptokitties?

When Gab wanted to ICO on Ethereum, the Ethereum devs threatened to fork them off. The Ethereum Foundation is a left-libertarian soy infested mishmash of genderqueer & incels. (And yes, I know they can't fork them off, but it's clear that Ethereum is not apolitical. Which is a huge red flag for future development, because EF wants to pursue block chain governance.)

On top of that, it's inflationary. But that's not necessary in disagreement with a block chain. It is 100% in disagreement with making a sound investment though!
 
Maciano said:
churros said:
Maciano said:
And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

Bold. Why?

The whole point of a block chain is that transactions are set in stone. They are immutable. Forever. Unalterable. What do Ethereum devs say: we'll roll back the block chain. If that's what they want, why don't they just AWS data centers for their cryptokitties?

When Gab wanted to ICO on Ethereum, the Ethereum devs threatened to fork them off. The Ethereum Foundation is a left-libertarian soy infested mishmash of genderqueer & incels. (And yes, I know they can't fork them off, but it's clear that Ethereum is not apolitical. Which is a huge red flag for future development, because EF wants to pursue block chain governance.)

On top of that, it's inflationary. But that's not necessary in disagreement with a block chain. It is 100% in disagreement with making a sound investment though!

ETH was inflationary at the start of this year, when it was 8$. It has been inflationary every day for the entire year. And yet it was 8$ on Jan 1st and 800$ now.

I've seen currencies which had inflation rates in the 1000% (EMB, I think it was) that went on to 9x despite the fact that holders were getting the original amount they'd put in on a daily basis. This isn't uncommon.

I've seen no evidence that a coin's inflation rate has a serious effect on its price, particularly if the inflation rate isn't a stupid one.
 

Lampwick

Woodpecker
Gold Member
Kona said:
I'm putting some bitcoin where samseaus mouth is and picking up some Montero today.

I still feel like the IRS is gonna kick my door in over bitcoin cash, but oh well.

Aloha!

When crypto first started exploding earlier this year, I began looking into the case for fundamental investment in Monero. After browsing darknet subreddits, I reached the conclusion that people were content using Bitcoin and tumblers for anonymity. There were very few threads about alternate currencies, and in the threads that did exist, the overall attitude towards other currencies, including Monero specifically, was dismissive.

Since that time, several darknet markets have been shut down, and new ones seem to have taken their place. Also since that time, Bitcoin fees have remained high. Keep in mind that the impact of Bitcoin fees is magnified when using tumblers.

Now if you browse the same subreddits, there are many discussions about using alternate currencies to avoid Bitcoin fees. Certain darknet markets are also adding support for alternate currencies for the same reason. It seems that the currencies being mentioned the most are Bitcoin Cash and Monero.

The darknet market use case may help in determining the direction crypto is heading. It reminds me of when the Internet was first starting, and the only thing that really made money online was porn. The rest of e-commerce was nonexistent, or not profitable. Porn was a pure use case that paved the way for everything else. Darknet markets may be the Internet porn of crypto.

If you compare the market cap of Monero to Bitcoin, it's about 1-2%. In terms of pure utility, it looks like Monero is undervalued to me.

Disclaimer: I do not own any Monero currently, but am considering how to allocate my portfolio at this point.
 

Maciano

Kingfisher
SamuelBRoberts said:
Maciano said:
churros said:
Maciano said:
And Ethereum is 100% shit. For the life of me, I can't understand why this stuff is even on a blockchain. :s

Bold. Why?

The whole point of a block chain is that transactions are set in stone. They are immutable. Forever. Unalterable. What do Ethereum devs say: we'll roll back the block chain. If that's what they want, why don't they just AWS data centers for their cryptokitties?

When Gab wanted to ICO on Ethereum, the Ethereum devs threatened to fork them off. The Ethereum Foundation is a left-libertarian soy infested mishmash of genderqueer & incels. (And yes, I know they can't fork them off, but it's clear that Ethereum is not apolitical. Which is a huge red flag for future development, because EF wants to pursue block chain governance.)

On top of that, it's inflationary. But that's not necessary in disagreement with a block chain. It is 100% in disagreement with making a sound investment though!

ETH was inflationary at the start of this year, when it was 8$. It has been inflationary every day for the entire year. And yet it was 8$ on Jan 1st and 800$ now.

I've seen currencies which had inflation rates in the 1000% (EMB, I think it was) that went on to 9x despite the fact that holders were getting the original amount they'd put in on a daily basis. This isn't uncommon.

I've seen no evidence that a coin's inflation rate has a serious effect on its price, particularly if the inflation rate isn't a stupid one.

Inflation is always a tax by the issuers on the holders. So by holding Ethereum you're subsidising ether miners.

Ofcourse, there have been many new crypto noobs coming in who bought ethereum and thereby raising the price. (Most of these ppl know nothing about ethereum. They just like 100X gains.)

These are 2 separate forces.

In the end inflation will play a role. But if you got in early, it won't matter.
 

yaku

Sparrow
1800 bitcoin worth $31 million are created each day.

About 20,000 Ether worth $14 million are created each day.

I also believe that when Eth's Casper upgrade comes about, new coin issuance will be minimal (maybe 1%). Vitalik has also stated that they will also add partial transaction fee burning, so the inflation rate might be below 0%.
 
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