Incoming Bitcoin crash

Maciano

Kingfisher
Road_Less_Taken said:
Maciano said:
As a HODLer I'm kind of relieved with this correction, if this thing had gone up like the last two weeks it would have forced me to sell some HODLings. I simply don't make enough money right now.

Now I can even buy the dip. After january 1st, the bull-run can safely pick up again. No need to worry. :)

Also, if you're gambling with shitcoins you will now have learned the hard way that alts dump harder than bitcoin.

You sound like you have an attachment to it. I would much rather be forced to sell my holdings for a profit then hold on to them hoping that I can make more money.

That being said I probably wouldn't sell now there will probably be a relief rally that I would sell into. But then again thats technical analysis!

I guess you're right! :)
 

The Beast1

Peacock
Gold Member
Bitcoin, the AOL of cryptos.

See you all at sub $1k levels while the better coins out there get thrashed to nothing.

Blood in the streets is the best time to buy, but there still isn't enough blood yet. When normies say cryptocurrencies are stupid is when i'll be buying in.
 

Laska

 
After the kinds of gains that came so quickly, 25% isn't much of a drop. This may be the start of the big correction we were waiting for, but probably not. Luckily for me, I don't own cryptos, so I don't have to put money on my guess.
 

bgbusiness

Kingfisher
Laska said:
After the kinds of gains that came so quickly, 25% isn't much of a drop. This may be the start of the big correction we were waiting for, but probably not. Luckily for me, I don't own cryptos, so I don't have to put money on my guess.

Yeah...but any investment that drops 20%~25%+ in one or even in a week should be considered with caution even if it is up 1000% compared to couple months ago.

Too much volatility is not good for any investment. It just means that people are just speculating and gambling.
 

Laska

 
bgbusiness said:
Laska said:
After the kinds of gains that came so quickly, 25% isn't much of a drop. This may be the start of the big correction we were waiting for, but probably not. Luckily for me, I don't own cryptos, so I don't have to put money on my guess.

Yeah...but any investment that drops 20%~25%+ in one or even in a week should be considered with caution even if it is up 1000% compared to couple months ago.

Too much volatility is not good for any investment. It just means that people are just speculating and gambling.

I'd agree, except that the 25% drop isn't a problem, its a good thing. I'd say that the gains were the sole problem as far as price changes.
 

Razor Beast

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts said:
Why is this particular drop different than any of the other 30%+ drops we used to have monthly?

Because you need more and more money flowing into the coins to support these ever higher prices. Not hard to support the price if bitcoin is trading for under $100 a coin. At $15,000 a coin its another story. If a less than proportional amount of money stops flowing in relative to amount of coins being sold or inflows slow dramatically the price crashes.

You also have Charlie Lee cashing in his entire stake in crypto essentially. When the whales change course it's usually time to head for the hills no matter you are trading. He already said its a bubble more or less. I think he is worried about regulation after the coming fallout and how it could affect the coins going forward.
 

Road_Less_Taken

Woodpecker
Razor Beast said:
Road_Less_Taken said:
Big possibility of a bull trap coming up. Lets look and see if we get the falling top in the next couple of days.

You called it. Looking like the 4-5k bounce off the 20k to 11k pullback was a bull trap.

I only call it right when I don't have any horses in the race so to speak! You'd have to think that that the bears will have control. Those who bought the bounce have either sold for a profit or not feeling good about themselves now. I don't see any support where we are going to have strong buyers coming in, though its volatile as hell so anything can happen and it doesn't look like a real falling top on the daily yet.
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
Nowak said:
I don't see the utility of crypto or blockchain as a long term solution aside from pure speculation. Here is a good article about this

https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100

If you read this article with a critical eye you can see this guy is just using bad frame game.

What if, ten years after it was invented, the reason nobody has adopted a distributed ledger at scale is because nobody wants it?

a half a trillion dollar market cap would suggest otherwise.

For one thing, there’s already a costless, instant way to exchange value without a middleman: cash.

how do send cash across the planet without a middleman?

The key feature of a new payment system — think of PayPal in its early days — is the confidence that if the goods aren’t as described you’ll get your money back.

Plus, it’s not actually that good a payment system — Visa can handle sixty thousand transactions per second, while Bitcoin historically taps out at seven.

fair points. the blockchain people are working on it. the tech is still in its infancy. I can name several projects already working on scaling and paypal-like services.

The government-backed banking system provides FDIC guarantees, reversibility of ACH, identity verification, audit standards, and an investigation system when things go wrong. Bitcoin, by design, has none of these things. I saw a remarkable message thread by someone whose bitcoin account got drained because their email had been hacked and their password was stolen. They were stunned to have no recourse!

This is where myself and people like Peter Schiff will disagree all the way. Governments should never be allowed to provide guarantees or be able to reverse or bail people out for losing their money. This is exactly what created and ended the bail outs of 2008-2009. When you create situations where there is artificially no risk for something, it ends up caving in a lot worse when a disaster strikes. Every time the governments guarantees something it always ends up with moral hazard where everyone takes advantage of the situation. Student loans, housing bubbles, fiat bubbles are all caused by the government-back guarantees. What this banker-author will probably never realize is the simple fact you cannot artificially shield people from mistakes. People must make their own mistakes and learn from them, being protected does not teach them lessons they can carry into the future. If you aren't careful you will get robbed, that's life, you learn from this and become stronger. Being dependent on others to protect you and bail you out just makes you weak and complacent.

 in 2014, the then-#1 bitcoin trader, Mt. Gox, also lost $400m of investor money due to security failures. The subsequent #1 bitcoin trader, Bitfinex, also shut down after a loss of customer funds. Imagine the world if more banks had been drained of customer funds than not. Bitcoin is what banking looked like in the middle ages — “here’s your libertarian paradise, have a nice day.”

these things have been happening forever, and in much worse ways in the traditional banking sphere and continue to happen on a daily basis. He's being a tad disingenuous here.

Second, government policies are designed to disrupt terrorist financing and organized crime, and prevent traffic in illegal goods like stolen credit card numbers or child pornography.

here we go, the "won't somebody think of the children" appeal the emotion argument. Trade in your liberty for security argument. He want us to pay the consequences for the evil doings of criminals, screw this guy. I'm sure women and leftists will lap this up.

Why haven’t banks preferred this new technology? The answer is that setting up a Ripple Gateway isn’t actually much different than using the existing corresponding-account system

Yes and it costs a lot of money to adopt new systems. Banks are still using systems like SWIFT using tech from the 60's because it works and they aren't going to replace everything they have. However banks are eager to get into DLT and a few projects are involved in this right now.

smart contracts, Distributed storage, computing, and messaging, etc etc won't work

I'm going to paraphrase the rest of his article since it runs away from the central issue. I agree that 90% of this stuff is analogous to pets.com from the dotcom bubble. There's no need for blockchain tech to involved in everything, that would be redundant. A few things will become big and the rest will go into the scrap heap. Almost everyone agrees that there is a bubble surrounding the 1000's of new coins that are simply just money grab operations.
 

Guitarman

Pelican
xxx said:
The bitcoin phenomenon very closely resembles the dot com bubble of the early 2000s, in that it's unearthing a herd like urge in the general population. First everyone follows the trend to buy high, like sheep, then everyone follows the trend to sell low. When anything starts to attract large amounts of unsophisticated investors -- trouble is very near.

It will only take a slight amount of fear to unleash a complete domino effect that will cause Bitcoin prices to drop dramatically, because average people's emotions are fragile when it comes to their money. We could see a panic starting very soon, seemingly out of no good reason, because of the emotional instability of naive investors that very recently started to buy the coin.

Once the smartest investors realize that the stock cannot go any higher, they will start selling, followed the next tier and so on, until the general population panics and a massive fire sale occurs, causing the stock to disintegrate.

Bitcoin after all is unsustainable, as the energy requirements to mine will just keep growing; the people's faith in the coin will not.

I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.
 

Enhanced Eddie

Pelican
Gold Member
Guitarman said:
I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.
Bitcoin has actual value, not just tulip bulb value... I started to really understand that once I listened to Andreas Antonopoulos for a while.

As for the crash... https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/
 

JayJuanGee

Crow
Gold Member
OGPUA said:
Guitarman said:
I have thought this for a while. These crypto currencies seem to have no value other than how much people are willing to pay for each coin. At least even a FIAT currency (not backed by gold) still has the economy of that country that uses the currency, and that country's national debt as it's backing. The mere fact that the price of cryptos has shot up beyond all reasonable assessment of their true value and the launching of so many other crypto's should be ringing alarm bells.

I predict an incoming crash for Bitcoin and all the other crypto currencies. This is an over inflated bubble, and like all previous bubbles cannot keep expanding forever. The crash will come and may even be the means by which the global elite plan on an attempt to de-rail the US economy as punishment for voting Trump president - and maybe they hope to prevent a second term. I hope the crypto world sees a minor correction in the next few years and not full blown global recession launching crypto crash until at least after Trump gets his second term.
Bitcoin has actual value, not just tulip bulb value... I started to really understand that once I listened to Andreas Antonopoulos for a while.

As for the crash... https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/

Seems a bit lacking in analysis to me for guys to demonstrate a long streak of asserting that either a bitcoin crash is imminent or that it is actually in occurrence based on bubble theory and even analogies that try to suggest that bitcoin is like a kind of stock (that even seems to miss some of the underlying differentiating aspects of bitcoin, including its decentralized proof of work nature).

These kinds of assertions have been going on with bitcoin since its beginnings, but even in the past year, there were a lot of assertions that bitcoin was overvalued all the way up from $250 in October 2015 to $19,666 within the past few weeks.

Of course there are going to be corrections along the way, and even several corrections, makes it possible for bitcoin to continue on its upwards journey that also should include analysis of s-curve adoption, exponential growth, and metcalfe dynamics.

Sooner or later, guys asserting BTC crash or imminent crash are going to be correct, but mere correctness would not signify that they actually understand the whole dynamics behind bitcoin, including a large number of networking effects that continue to build upon bitcoin.

Furthermore, even if there are some symbiotic dynamics between various cryptos and bitcoin, each of us should be careful if we conflate our discussion of bitcoin with other cryptos. There are a lot of differences amongst the various cryptos, and there is especially a difference with what is being offered by bitcoin through proof of work etc, that is not even close to being matched by other cryptos, even though a large number of them make claims to being improvements upon bitcoin.

I guess part of my point is that it can take quite a bit of time to transition from a bear market to a bull market and back to a bear market, and since about October 2015, bitcoin has been in a bull market. If bitcoin transitions into a bear market (or crash or whatever), it could take 6 months to figure out that such transition has taken place or that the BTC price dynamics are sufficiently bearish, down trending or flat in order to clearly establish that such a bear transition has occurred.

Currently, I am of the opinion that the recent 7.5x move of BTC prices from $2600 to $19,666 within about 4 months has not been enough of a blow off top in order to be the end of our current upwards BTC price run, and part of the rationale remains that we have witnessed 4 decent price corrections (2 in the 30% arena and two in the 40% arena) that allow buying support to catch up and provide additional fuel for continued upwards price movements. So, yeah, my whole thinking could be wrong and that $19,666 was the blow off top, but I am currently thinking, based on the corrections that have happened and the ongoing upwards dynamics including additional interest of traditional financial sectors, that BTC has a decent chance that a blow off top would still be able to reasonably get another 50% minimum, but more likely in the 2x to 7x range of the current $19,666 ATH.

Again, nothing is guaranteed, so it should not hurt to engage in some preparation for BTC price movement in either direction.. and to come to your own conclusions about how to assign probabilities for each of the possible BTC price directions, and surely downward price movement is not imminently inevitable as the topic and title of a thread like this, including OP seems to want to assert.
 

CleanSlate

Hummingbird
Gold Member
CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

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Olav

Sparrow
Gold Member
CleanSlate said:
CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

You're not wrong. In fact, this is what could be described as how a BTC crash looks like in a bull market i.e. not major drop in price but in dominance.
 

Gas

Kingfisher
Gold Member
CleanSlate said:
CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

Lots of altcoins are having downward pressure right now, just from looking at the charts. My guess is that a lot of profit taking is going to happen over the immediate term, fueling another bull run for BTC. 20k and beyond.
 

Samseau

Owl
Orthodox
Gold Member
CleanSlate said:
CMC at time of writing...

BTC Dominance: 36.0%

It has NEVER been this low. Based on mcap dominance over the past month, one might argue that Bitcoin is "crashing" -- the alt bull market notwithstanding.

This 100%. Bitcoin can't scale past the 20K mark. It's way too slow. I sold all my BTC after I had a transaction get stuck in the mempool for almost 5 days. Fuck that shit.

Can you imagine, you go to sell your BTC, and everyone else does at the same time, your payment gets stuck in line for over a week and when it sells you've lost half your investment or more?

WAAAAAY too much risk for me, and many others: hence the loss of BTC dominance. BTC is a shitcoin hot potato. A historical coin, but playing chicken with thousands isn't for anyone with half a brain.
 
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