James Kunstler and Peak Oil

911 said:
Kaligula, about the map above, there are large shale oil deposits in eastern Canada that don't show on it.

With the current world oil reseerves around 1,600 billion barrels, and the current consumption rate of 100M barrels per day, we have an annual consumption of 360M barrels, so about 1 B every 3 years, which translates to about 400 years of oil left.

Basically, oil is a relatively cheap and accessible resource that can power humanity for generations to come. I think the reason Big Oil has lined up behind the global warming hoax is that this is a way to artificially throttle the supply of a near endless commodity. The owners of big oil are tribes like the Rockefellers, who have long become banker oligarchs, and to them artificially created markets like the carbon trade market represent trillion dollar financial opportunities, as are "green" energies which they also dominate. Furthermore, the banksters as oligarchs can impose taxes and further fleece the middle class.

This is covered really well in this James Corbett documentary, one of his best works, and one of the best documentaries made in the last decade, a must-see:


This is the angle that leftists don't understand, they believe that evil big oil is the main barrier against global warming regulation schemes, when in fact they're fully on board.

Good info. Plus I am more worried about the polluting effects of its current use in tech the toxic stuff that vehicles belch when it drives(excluding CO2). The plastic pollution and BPA shenanigans for example.

And toxic byproducts of factories and other industrial processes dumped in the environment.

Although improving industrial civilization has a lot to work on aesthetically and environmentally.
 

TheMost

Robin
The Beast1 said:
questor70 said:
TheMost said:
a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Not to mention, food prices stateside have collapsed. The price of meat especially is so damn cheap right now thanks to the trade war. No more Chinese sucking up the supply.

The Ice Age guys explain this as part of the collapse. Globally there were a lot of crop failures because of unusually cold and damp weather. Cattle need hay and feed to get through winter. The collapse of beef prices reflects that ranchers had to cull far more than the usual amount of cows, because there wasn't enough feed available for sale to get them through the winter.

Stockpile your cheap beef and keep it in the freezer. I expect beef prices to go back up in half a year or so. Takes a couple years to bounce back from such a large cull. Once the current glut on the market is cleared it will take a long time to rebuild herds, especially if the cold weather continues and feed remains in limited supply.

Lot of our bread-basket region crops went moldy in the field this year and the ground was too cold and mushy to plant the winter crop. When you rely on 2 or 3 crops a year, a late spring and early winter can cut your output by 2/3 and more. And when that is happening world wide, you can't just ship in food from elsewhere without warfare.

One analyst reported that China has already bought out the entire grain crop from the countries on their borders, in addition to their activities in Africa.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
I did not know that crops failed worldwide. In EU, they certainly did, with some places having fallen by 50%.
Poland had 18% less crops in 2018 comparing to 2017.
Luckily, EU is cushioned by its agricultural policy, producing more than we need in normal times.

I wonder whether TPTB are surprised by Maunder minimum. They have been so much into global warming and carbon tax... Didn't they notice the sun?

Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.
 

TheMost

Robin
Kaligula said:
I did not know that crops failed worldwide. In EU, they certainly did, with some places having fallen by 50%.
Poland had 18% less crops in 2018 comparing to 2017.
Luckily, EU is cushioned by its agricultural policy, producing more than we need in normal times.

I hope the EU is storing that extra. Canada and the USA used to have a 7 year reserve. Now... hah. Gone by the wayside, like a lot of our infrastructure. Redundancy and resiliency sacrificed in the name of efficiency.

When I did my last bulk purchases I discovered that paper reserves are not related to the real reserves. Had to wait a year to get my relatively small order of rye fulfilled, although I was reassured that it was "in stock" the whole time. No it wasn't, because they shipped it to me right around harvest time.

I wonder whether TPTB are surprised by Maunder minimum. They have been so much into global warming and carbon tax... Didn't they notice the sun?

NASA consultant John Casey noticed it. And for the past 20 years I've seen people like Robert Felix and others talking about it. The book by Mike Baillie about the Black Death is chilling; the Black Plague was likely the result of starvation and dampness causing mold and fungus during the mini ice-age. Around the world trees stopped growing entirely for 10 years, and it took 100 years for growth to return to normal. Baillie is a tree ring expert so he went into detail on this topic.

If TPTB didn't know about it, why would they be preparing a controlled market collapse ahead of the need for food rationing?

If you are already versed in the basics of Ice Age theory, this video is a good "where are we at right now" update.

 

TheMost

Robin
Kaligula said:
Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.

Yes. Taking this into consideration, very important to get peak oil right. I really hope you are wrong and peak oil is 200 years away. If we are at peak oil, this maunder minimum is going to be way way way more painful.


I still don't understand your argument, Kaligula, about lower oil prices being a result of peak oil. I mean, I think I understand the argument, but it doesn't make sense. You say that the people willing to buy crude at higher prices have stopped doing whatever it was they were doing, so only those who are willing to pay lower prices are left? Is your argument that the current price of oil is a game of musical chairs propped up by issuance of fiat?
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
TheMost said:
Kaligula said:
Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.

Yes. Taking this into consideration, very important to get peak oil right. I really hope you are wrong and peak oil is 200 years away. If we are at peak oil, this maunder minimum is going to be way way way more painful.


I still don't understand your argument, Kaligula, about lower oil prices being a result of peak oil. I mean, I think I understand the argument, but it doesn't make sense. You say that the people willing to buy crude at higher prices have stopped doing whatever it was they were doing, so only those who are willing to pay lower prices are left? Is your argument that the current price of oil is a game of musical chairs propped up by issuance of fiat?

Every knowledgeable person expects economic reset, namely, the crash of debt driven economy. I do not think that economic reset is a cover for Maunder minimum, there is quite an independent need to reset the money system. This is why a lot of people are expecting some big war.
Don't know. The problem is how much TPTB are ready to "surface", so to say. The official narration is just a debt crisis, a war would suit as well.
The covert reasons are peak oil and Maunder minimum. But I do not believe the latter was seriously expected, since it does not pass into the official global warming narrative. Where is this "overt" narrative for Maunder minimum?

If we were able to go into limitless debt, there would be no peak oil, since we could recover more and more expensive oil reserves. NOT the current market price of oil is supported by fiat, by the current level of production are supported by fiat, so yes, in a way, you are right, the current costs of oil production are supported by fiat, i.e. debt. The problem is that money system itself hinges on petrodollar, petrodollar hinges on Saudi rial-USD peg, and Saudis are dependent on their diminishing oil reserves. If we don't crash economy, Saudi situation will crash US dollar sooner or later, and so will crash the USD-based money system. The fiat is essentially "pretend" money, and the question is what to do so we could be able to "pretend" further.
I think that US chosen solution is to bring more oil producing countries under the direct US control. After Iraq, Libya, Venezuela is now on the table, and Iran is the next one, I suppose. This is a temporary solution, of course, since the viability of petrodollar demands that oil will be still available and important fuel. Less oil means less urgency to have petrodollars in your wallet, too.

Due to the crisis, the market price of oil much is much lower than the current price of oil, and there is no real price discovery. But the chicken are coming home to roost, just read titles like:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-...inister-We-Avoided-25-Oil-With-OPEC-Deal.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Lower-Your-Costs-Or-Die-Big-Oils-New-Mantra.html

Such titles mean that the pressure of reality (economy not able to take high priced oil) is increasing. Economy would be able to take this higher costs only if it were growing at least at the pace matching the rising oil extraction costs. Otherwise the share of non-energy economic activity decreases.
But the general economy does not exist to extract oil only, after all. So it will collapse.

It is all a grand cycle of feedback.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Also, I think that the talk about oil production cuts in Saudi Arabia is nowadays the cover for peak oil depletion. Let's see: Saudi Arabia announces 500 000 bd production cut. Since the general Saudi production last years used to be around 10 millions barrels per day, we can easily get that this current cut is just 5% of former production, which is just a stated oil depletion rate which is 5-6% for conventional oil. And remember, Saudi Arabia is the low cost producer. They say now they cannot balance budget under 80$ oil. But they were able to do that in the past with low price oil. So?

They will now say that they need some high price for their oil, so they make "cuts", whereas in reality those cuts are just oil depletion rates.
Expect production "cuts" all the time in coming years.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
TheMost said:
The Beast1 said:
questor70 said:
TheMost said:
a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Not to mention, food prices stateside have collapsed. The price of meat especially is so damn cheap right now thanks to the trade war. No more Chinese sucking up the supply.

The Ice Age guys explain this as part of the collapse. Globally there were a lot of crop failures because of unusually cold and damp weather. Cattle need hay and feed to get through winter. The collapse of beef prices reflects that ranchers had to cull far more than the usual amount of cows, because there wasn't enough feed available for sale to get them through the winter.

Stockpile your cheap beef and keep it in the freezer. I expect beef prices to go back up in half a year or so. Takes a couple years to bounce back from such a large cull. Once the current glut on the market is cleared it will take a long time to rebuild herds, especially if the cold weather continues and feed remains in limited supply.

Lot of our bread-basket region crops went moldy in the field this year and the ground was too cold and mushy to plant the winter crop. When you rely on 2 or 3 crops a year, a late spring and early winter can cut your output by 2/3 and more. And when that is happening world wide, you can't just ship in food from elsewhere without warfare.

One analyst reported that China has already bought out the entire grain crop from the countries on their borders, in addition to their activities in Africa.


1-There is absolutely no evidence that we're entering an ice age. We are probably going to experience some slight cooling similar to the period from 1950-80. Nothing to panic about. Alarmism is sexy and exciting, but its premises are usually flawed. Climate has been relatively stable in the last 100 years, with periods of warming (1920-40, 1975-99) and periods of cooling (1945-75), all within a relatively small envelope. Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here.

2-World agricultural output has been stable and growing, propped up by rising CO2 concentrations. CO2 is a very powerful plant fertilizer, up to 20%-25% of agricultural productivity is credited to higher rates of CO2.

iu


iu


There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.
 

questor70

Ostrich
"Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here."

You gotta hand it to the internet. It's full of people making declarative statements like this without any evidence to back it up.
 

TheMost

Robin
questor70 said:
"Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here."

You gotta hand it to the internet. It's full of people making declarative statements like this without any evidence to back it up.

If he is going with the common definition of Ice Age, I understand where he is coming from. In the Ice Age community we've known for a long time that Manhattan was never under giant sheets of ice. You can look at the analysis by Kurt Johman for that info.

When we speak of Ice Age, we are taking about the type of ice ages that we've had over the past 4000 years, such as the one 1400 years ago, 800 years ago, 400 years ago, 200 years ago... Manhattan won't be covered with giant ice sheets, but 400 years ago the Baltic sea and the Thames river froze solid. The Dalton minimum in 1816 killed thousands of Americans. A year without summer is a terrible thing.

 

TheMost

Robin
911 said:
There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.

The chart you showed stops in 2011. Lot has happened since then. You didn't hear about the riots in the Philippines because of rice shortages? A lot of people credit high food prices (caused by food shortages) for the Arab Spring. Perhaps you've heard that analysis?
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
TheMost said:
911 said:
There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.

The chart you showed stops in 2011. Lot has happened since then. You didn't hear about the riots in the Philippines because of rice shortages? A lot of people credit high food prices (caused by food shortages) for the Arab Spring. Perhaps you've heard that analysis?

The recent world grain production data does not justify doomsday porn narratives:

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GetStoredBlogImage


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there is a small deficit in 2018, which as you can see from the first chart, is easily absorbed by existing stocks.

Global wheat stocks have been near all-time highs, so is global production.

If the small deficit from 2018 continues, prices will go up and more land will be cultivated. The amount of land cultivated has been shrinking due to increases in yields, this is for corn, the pattern is similar for wheat:

[img=600x400]https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=...AAAAPUc/QOvUH7yYpnA/s1600/cornprice.jpg[/img]

agricultural yields have been increasing faster than global demand, hence the concept of peak farmland.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
questor70 said:
"Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here."

You gotta hand it to the internet. It's full of people making declarative statements like this without any evidence to back it up.

Here you go questie:

8518750_meantrend.png


No change in the rate of sea level rise in NYC for the past 150+ years.
The relative sea level trend is 2.84 millimeters/year with a 95%
confidence interval of +/- 0.09 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level
data from 1856 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 0.93 feet
in 100 years.

What you can clearly see is that as CO2 rates rose sharply from 280ppm
to the current 400ppm, there has been no effect whatsoever on sea level
rise. Thee idea that the oceans are going to flood coastal cities because
of manmade CO2 is a complete load of crap.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Don't know. Whatever 911 claims (and 911 seems to believe only in conspiracy-made disasters as his very name points to), it seems that 2018 was the year of the global crop failure, with stress on "global", not "big" failure. The grand solar minimum extremists claim there will be no vegetation above 45 N parallel between 2028-2032.
But it seems that this youtube guy has made a kind of marketing strategy out of the grand solar minimum. This is, by the way, exactly the problem with youtube prophets - once upon a time you condensed your message in one, a couple of books max, now you make hundreds of youtube videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOKvpS4J3Cw

It seems that every disaster has its own community. It is like a fucking gauntlet.
If not debt crisis then peak oil, if not peak oil then grand solar minimum, if not grand solar minimum then sudden polar reversal, if not polar reversal then the biggest stick of all of them, solar mini nova.

www.dieholdfoundation.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vKwu9AqX8c

The argument from lunar glass beads I find somehow convincing. If, of course, lunar glass beads are true. Also, the periodic sudden die-offs on Earth have been somehow regular and mini-novas may offer a better explanation than the standard explanation of periodic (!) clashes with great asteroids... The latter explanation has a strong presence in popular culture; people seem to believe that the only danger hiding in cosmos are those asteroids... On the other hand, much more closer and much more powerful Sun receives very little attention.

The most strange site I have found is exopolitics.com. Besides completely fantastic articles on aliens, it has some relatively good scientific articles like the one on cosmic rays:

https://www.exopolitics.org/cosmic-...lar-flashes-earth-core-eruptions-pole-shifts/

By the way, more or less this rays idea was in the background of "2012" film. Maybe Mayans were right after all, you have to remember that the local Earth time is actually slowing, because Earth rotates slower and slower. So maybe we haven't actually yet got to the Mayan "2012" due to the time lag...

And the polar reversal theory claims that at the time of polar reversal Earth rotation actually stops. The polar reversal theory says that glacial conditions in different areas of Earth are not due to some global ice expansion, but due to shifting poles. It is not ice that wanders over Earth, it is the Earth poles themselves that wander over Earth. The offered explanation is that for glacialization you need a lot of snow, and for a lot snow you need a lot of clouds, and for a lot of clouds you need a lot of steam. And for a lot of steam, you need a lot of heat: which will be provided by a mini-nova solar flash event.
 
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