James Kunstler and Peak Oil

Oberrheiner

Pelican
Funny, I assumed his name was just a reference to the "sports" version of the beetle :) incidentally one of the best cars ever made.

aed1df59609801.5a286c4f242d3.jpg
 

questor70

Ostrich
Kaligula said:
It seems that every disaster has its own community.

There is a doomer cottage industry. You can say there always has been. People have been "selling" end of the world at least as far back as the New Testament, which in large part was a deus ex machina wish-fulfillment prediction fueled by a hatred of the Roman empire.

Peel back any end of the world narrative and you'll find a lot of people with a very particular axe they're grinding. That's true here as well with so many people connecting women's lib to the downfall of civilizations.

That's why when anyone starts a post with "they" as in "they want this and they want that" I know they are speaking out of an axe they're grinding and not genuine intellectual curiosity.

When it comes to things like peak oil and climate change, there is a way to look at the data in an objective and scientific way, but you're not going to get there by hanging out at Zerohedge or the like.

This is coming from someone who has looked at these issues since, oh, 2004 or so, and has hung out on forums populated with some of the most notorious nutcases and wannabe nostradamuses making the worst bad calls after bad calls. You can only live through that sh*t for so long before you start to see through bias (including your own).

I also know that people tend to cling to this or that apocalyptic narrative as a form of entertainment. Life is too f*cking boring and repetitive. It's simply more exciting to contemplate the end of the world than it is to imagine a future where business as usual just sort of muddles on and we all have to keep trudging to work each day rather than fighting off zombies and eating rations and backyard potatoes.

Terrible things can and do happen on the world stage but they happen on their own (often slow and gradual) timetable.

For anyone over 30 at least, our biggest problems are rather petty in the grand scheme of things. We're more likely to get consumed by a personal tragedy: a job loss, divorce-rape, a terminal health diagnosis or freak accident, than we are to get swept up in a near-term global conflagration. It looks like I'll be on the way out when the worst problems coming down the pike materialize and it will be my daughter who will have to deal with it the most. I'm probably the last generation (Generation X) to be able to have enjoyed my best years in the glory of post-WWII prosperity.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Well, most of the times, I have tried to be rational. I didn't even go to cinema to see "2012".

But I know two things. First, our science has never got to the deepest level of reality. The last attempt, string theory, was pretty fantastic and could be very well put on exopolitics.com. Kant was right: there are noumena, namely unknown reality there. We only see the reality created by our interactions with this base, noumenal reality.
Second, in the past there indeed were great disasters and die offs. Yellowstone erupted. Dinosaurs are no more. And so on. It has to happen some day again.

From a social point of view, the sensitiveness to doom is not always there. People are not completely irrational.
If a sense of doom appears in society, it usually shifts social interests to religion, like in the late Roman empire. People there did not want any more imperial jobs as they used do in their past, instead, they preferred to be deacons, bishops of Christianity. I even partly understand such choices - all the recent reading has made me think that maybe a monastery is an option....
The religious elements are present in doom communities even today. In this perspective, global warming is the official orthodox religion, and peak oil, global cooling are global warming heresies. All these communities are groups of people who claim that that they have a special knowledge (=message), and most of people are not ready to accept this knowledge (= salvation is hard). Nevertheless, this is life saving knowledge (=there is salvation for you if you accept the message). Every catastrophe has its proposed solution, whether it be renewable energy, emigration to a new land, or emigration into the deep underground.
Those solutions are usually questionable, but salvation is an essential element of religion.
But a religion is never completely true.

I think that this religious component actually skews our situation, especially the presupposition "that most of the people are not ready to accept the message." I do think that if people were openly said about peak oil, there would be greater social readiness to tackle this problem.
We claim to have gone through the Enlightenment, but our social structures are still essentially religious, with "priests" with secret knowledge at the helm leading the sheep...
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
The sites like exopolitics.com or dieholdfoundation.com may be a kind of limited disclosure outlets, since they offer legit knowledge together with nonsense, like aliens or secrets of Hebrew letters.
With this nonsense elements, you can always discredit them, should such a need arise.

But why is someone doing this at all? Why disclosure at all?
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Kaligula said:
Whatever 911 claims , it seems that 2018 was the year of the global crop failure, with stress on "global", not "big" failure...

What global crop failure?

I have provided basic, tangible proof that the decline from 2017 was marginal at best, and that the last 5 years were years of solid grain surplus and record crops, and here you are still going on about "global crop failure in 2018"...

You seem to have a problem registering very basic facts presented to you when they go against your viewpoints. Eventually people will stop reading and responding to your long, prolific posts as a result.



The only crop failure that might happen with colder weather would be in temperate/mild weather areas exposed to sustained deep freezes, affecting their winter crops of vegetables and citrus. No one is going to starve to death in Europe if the price of oranges doubles in a really bad winter where they have to import them from Morocco or Florida instead of Spain.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Oberrheiner said:
Funny, I assumed his name was just a reference to the "sports" version of the beetle :) incidentally one of the best cars ever made.

aed1df59609801.5a286c4f242d3.jpg

Good choice of a 911 there, Rheiner, the ealy to mid-1970s
with the 5-spoke rims were the best years for the model IMO,
at least from an aesthetic standpoint. The one here has the
ugly American bumpers, which are mandated for all vehicles
sold in the US, they have to sustain a 5mph front and rear
impact without any damage.

Here's a'74 911 Carrera with the Euro bumpers:

5_911-G-Modell-650x400.jpg


(edit: on second thought, this might be a German delivery US 911,
the front plate being just a vanity plate in most of N. America. Most
of the vintage 1970s 911s out there are from California, where the dry
and temperate weather helps preserve the bodies).
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Look, Eleven September/911, you simplify things.

I am not a farmer, so I have skimmed over some Polish agriculture fora and there are voices saying exactly what TheMost in Canada says, namely that what is on paper does not corespond to what is on the ground.

You put some statistics and expect us to believe in them immediately. What about people who did not have enough money to buy corn in the international market, for example ? And corn market is not so internationalized like oil market, with traders and speculants. At least in Europe. A lot of contracts are bilateral contracts. Polish wheat, for example, goes mainly to Germany, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Cuba. All long standing clients.
Another problem is that wheat has several quality classes and good quality wheat crops have fallen more than overall wheat crops. But your statistics say nothing about it.
 
Kaligula said:
Look, Eleven September/911, you simplify things.

I am not a farmer, so I have skimmed over some Polish agriculture fora and there are voices saying exactly what TheMost in Canada says, namely that what is on paper does not corespond to what is on the ground.

Oh yeah? Well I skimmed TWICE as many Polish agricultural fora as you did, and they all say everything's great. Since my anecdotal evidence is twice as large as yours is, that must mean everything's fine.

Case closed, nothing to worry about here.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts said:
Kaligula said:
Look, Eleven September/911, you simplify things.

I am not a farmer, so I have skimmed over some Polish agriculture fora and there are voices saying exactly what TheMost in Canada says, namely that what is on paper does not corespond to what is on the ground.

Oh yeah? Well I skimmed TWICE as many Polish agricultural fora as you did, and they all say everything's great. Since my anecdotal evidence is twice as large as yours is, that must mean everything's fine.

Case closed, nothing to worry about here.

Obnoxious SamuelBRoberts strikes again.
Give examples of your skimming. Polish please.

BTW, first time I learnt about bad crops in 2018 was in bakery, when prices had suddenly risen in September, just after harvests (!).
 

TheMost

Robin
Hard to have a constructive conversation when your personal experiences are different from the official "on paper", "give me a link" reality that most people live in. John Casey wrote 3 books and wasn't shilling youtube videos. Adapt2030 on youtube does have ads for some useful product; that is fine. Just because someone is selling something it doesn't mean their narrative is false. If there is a war on and I tell you about it and "oh, by the way, I have some ammunition and guns for sale", that doesn't make me a shill. Robert Felix wrote one book, which is still good, and his blog updates are a useful "where are we at now" for those who have read his book. Adapt2030 on youtube has eyes and ears on the ground in China; because of soy meal shortage they are killing off their pigs. Their official story is that a deadly pig virus from Africa is killing humans. Only remedy is to slaughter the hogs. Worse than mad cow disease. Lot of stuff going on in this world that doesn't have a convenient link handy.
 
So you're saying you have access to on-the-ground info about tradeable commodities that's not available to the average person, and in fact, the information that your average commodity trader is looking at is full of lies. Amazing!

You must be making a killing on trading. Can you tell us more about how much money you've made off this info (I'm sure you don't want to talk dollars, so simple percentages is more than fine), and how you plan to take advantage of it in the future? What ETFs have you been using, or do you use a more complex strategy?

Let's hear the details!
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
TheMost said:
Hard to have a constructive conversation when your personal experiences are different from the official "on paper", "give me a link" reality that most people live in. John Casey wrote 3 books and wasn't shilling youtube videos. Adapt2030 on youtube does have ads for some useful product; that is fine. Just because someone is selling something it doesn't mean their narrative is false. If there is a war on and I tell you about it and "oh, by the way, I have some ammunition and guns for sale", that doesn't make me a shill. Robert Felix wrote one book, which is still good, and his blog updates are a useful "where are we at now" for those who have read his book. Adapt2030 on youtube has eyes and ears on the ground in China; because of soy meal shortage they are killing off their pigs. Their official story is that a deadly pig virus from Africa is killing humans. Only remedy is to slaughter the hogs. Worse than mad cow disease. Lot of stuff going on in this world that doesn't have a convenient link handy.

This adapt2030 site is a doomporn fake news outlet. It took me about 4 min to debunk that claim.

1- There is no shortage of soybean globally:

s_wldsupply.gif


Global demand is growing because there are more meat eaters in places like China, and supply is responding and addressing that increase in demand.

2- Chinese farmers are reducing pork production due to their price of soybeans going up. And the reason for this? China has put a tariff on US soybean imports, in order to retaliate on Trump taxing chinese imports... lol, way to cut off your nose to spite your face, Xi.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-more-u-s-soy-shipments-as-extra-tariff-looms

Higher input/production costs==> more expensive product==> lower demand for said product ==> lower output. Econ 101. Pigs will be culled. If Chinese producers reduce their pig stock by 5%, that's 20 million oinkers to the slaughter, the doomer sites are going to have a field day spinning this porcine holocaust...

China’s Soybean Shortage May Leave Millions of Pigs to Go Hungry
Large soybean demand goes to feeding China’s 400 million pigs, in addition to people

After the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on soybeans imported from the United States, the price of imported soybeans rose sharply, affecting feed production and the pork industry.

Imported soybeans are mainly used as a component of feed for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture. Even with the purchase of soybeans from Brazil and plans to procure more in Argentina and India, China still can’t keep pace with fourth-quarter demand, and Chinese processing plants may not be able to produce enough soybean meal.

China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. In anticipation of soybean shortages, the price of pork has risen 26 percent this year. On Oct. 9 alone, the price rose 1.1 percent to 3,487 yuan ($504.9) per ton, the highest since July 2014. Soybean prices in some Chinese markets have risen almost 300 yuan ($43.44) per ton since July.

Sina quoted an industry insider as saying that, currently, U.S. soybean prices are cheap, and even if tariffs are added, the price would still be profitable. However, importing U.S. soybeans is currently a sensitive issue, so Chinese companies dare not import them for fear of political repercussions from the CCP regime.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/china...se-millions-of-pigs-to-go-hungry_2687384.html

Note that the price of pork and meat in N. America has dropped, because domestic soybean is now cheaper in America due to China taxing US feed and meat imports.

Apparently you didn't read any of this in that 2030 site, their dumbed down doom porn version is that the ice age is already here and crops are crashing everywhere, and they are hiding the truth from you!
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
TheMost said:
Hard to have a constructive conversation when your personal experiences are different from the official "on paper", "give me a link" reality that most people live in. John Casey wrote 3 books and wasn't shilling youtube videos. Adapt2030 on youtube does have ads for some useful product; that is fine. Just because someone is selling something it doesn't mean their narrative is false. If there is a war on and I tell you about it and "oh, by the way, I have some ammunition and guns for sale", that doesn't make me a shill. Robert Felix wrote one book, which is still good, and his blog updates are a useful "where are we at now" for those who have read his book. Adapt2030 on youtube has eyes and ears on the ground in China; because of soy meal shortage they are killing off their pigs. Their official story is that a deadly pig virus from Africa is killing humans. Only remedy is to slaughter the hogs. Worse than mad cow disease. Lot of stuff going on in this world that doesn't have a convenient link handy.

Just as an off topic curiosity:
It is popular view in Marxism that all your actions are motivated by your economic interest. Once I read the history of the ancient Greece by a Soviet historian who claimed that Demosthenes was in favour of the war with Philip of Macedonia because the great orator owned shields producing workshop.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
This guy claims that there will be no return in a foreseeable future from an ice age after it sets , since Sun is downshifting in a more general way:

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/scrp_ice_45/pisa000.htm

The arguments from the Ulysses space mission (solar wind decreasing) sound pretty convincing. It is pretty astounding how little what we know about cosmos is actually based on observations...

However, he bases his ideas on an alternative model of Sun, claiming it is a plasma star, not a hydrogen star. In his favour, I must say I have always found a bit difficult to imagine how all those nuclear reactions inside Sun are paced to provide a sustainable energy output in the long term. I mean, there is no one there who will simply remove or add fuel rods, nuclear plant likewise.
So maybe it is plasma. But plasma physics as well as the dark matter problem are understudied, unfortunately.
In a way it confirms that humans love little shiny things, not big dark things.
 

TheMost

Robin
Kaligula said:
This guy claims that there will be no return in a foreseeable future from an ice age after it sets , since Sun is downshifting in a more general way:

http://www.ice-age-ahead-iaa.ca/scrp_ice_45/pisa000.htm

I'll be doing coffee with him next week. His info on the Ulysses probe is good. He doesn't yet realize that the whole "miles thick ice sheets" part of the ice age story is bunk and been debunked for a long time. I think his timelines are too optimistic in the near term, and way too pessimistic in the long term.
 
Top