James Kunstler and Peak Oil

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
Demand will eventually decrease as a function of peak net oil not because of electric cars. Energy deflation will cause both the affordable price and usefull demand for oil to decrease. Few will understand when modern industrial civilization collapses from its current peak to something different, why oil is so cheap, yet so rare and expensive to extract....
 
Iconoclast007 said:
Looks like $60 per barrel is too high for modern industrial civilization in 2019. Unfortunately, producers make no profit below 60.The upper price affordable boundary will only decrease from here. Peak, net oil and Energy deflation has arrived. Get ready for shit to get real soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...mands-opec-increase-flow-oil-curb-high-prices

What are you talking about? Industrial civilization ran just fine when it was 100$+ a few years ago.

Also, something cannot simultaneously be "cheap" and "rare and expensive to extract".
 

questor70

Ostrich
SamuelBRoberts said:
Also, something cannot simultaneously be "cheap" and "rare and expensive to extract".

This was hamster logic that peak oilers dreamed up when the recession and the shale boom drove oil prices down.

Way back when peak oilers first clutched at the Matrix red pill/blue pill metaphor before the manosphere. The problem is that ANY entrenched way of looking at the world closes you off to new knowledge, hence risking becoming only a new kind of blue-piller who needs a new kind of red-pill.

That's where the peak oil movement is now. They had their day in the runup to 2008 but the remnant that remain have clutched at flat-earther-grade rationalizations to avoid accepting the reality that the can of consequences of peak oil has been successfully kicked down the road.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Iconoclast007 said:
Looks like $60 per barrel is too high for modern industrial civilization in 2019. Unfortunately, producers make no profit below 60.The upper price affordable boundary will only decrease from here. Peak, net oil and Energy deflation has arrived. Get ready for shit to get real soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...mands-opec-increase-flow-oil-curb-high-prices

Industrial civilization can take no more than 25% decrease in oil consumption. Until 2025 we are to lose between 35% and 50% of the current oil production. So, things may start getting real around 2023 at the latest.

As for shale oil, quality issues could derail US shale:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-One-Thing-That-Could-Derail-The-US-Oil-Boom.html
Don't believe in 'pipeline contamination'. Quality is in a well, not in a pipeline. And crude oil is not jet fuel, which has to be perfectly pure.

Maybe the shale oil quality problems are the reason why Trump has just demanded greater oil flow from OPEC?
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts.
1.Industrial civilization is teetering on the edge. There is nothing just fine about it especially not when energy prices are high. Perhaps you should take the time to review the price charts I posted a few posts back. Its shows oil price fluctuatuons effect on the economy in a descending pattern. .
2.the concept of energy deflation is what is driving the price of oil below the cost to extract, refine and distribute. Very few shale and fracking producers make any profit or ever have.

Questor70
1.The peak oil can was kicked down the road. You are correct. read my post earlier concerning shale and fracking and their depletion curves, technology and debt saturation. Its a fucking ponzi scheme.

Im open to "new" information, unfortunately you have not presented any.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Iconoclast007 said:
SamuelBRoberts.
1.Industrial civilization is teetering on the edge. There is nothing just fine about it especially not when energy prices are high. Perhaps you should take the time to review the price charts I posted a few posts back. Its shows oil price fluctuatuons effect on the economy in a descending pattern. .

[img=540x330]http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/OPEC-MEETING/010030SC1P5/USA-SHALE-OPEC-B.jpg[/img]

Let's keep pretending this chart doesn't even exist. Do you think extraction prices aren't going to drop even further with the introduction of AI and robotics? The whole mining/resource extraction industry is a prime avenue for the application of new technology, and we're just getting started.


2.the concept of energy deflation is what is driving the price of oil below the cost to extract, refine and distribute. Very few shale and fracking producers make any profit or ever have.

The richest man in the world (not including central bank debt holders) got there without making any profits for decades. Amazon and the internet infrastructure were built at a loss. Investors understand that once the infrastructure is in place, the billions spent will pay off, bigly. The graph beliw gives you an idea of the efficiency improvements that have been taking place with fracking, with wells yields going up 1000% in a decade.

I think big oil and the globalists who own it want to drive the smaller frackers into the ground and pick them up for cheap, but given how fast technology has been changing and improving their bottom line (see graph above) this might not even happen. Regardless, fracking is here to stay, and US production is slated to double to 20M barrel/day later next decade (that's twice Saudi Arabia's production). There's a half century's worth in the Bakken Basin alone, at the current rate of oil recovery, which is bound to change as technology is constantly improving.

[img=540x200]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/EIA_Oct2015_BakkenNewWellProdnPerRig.png[/img]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_Formation#Recoverable_oil

The Bakken Formation isn't even the biggest in the US:

https://eos.org/articles/largest-ever-u-s-shale-oil-deposit-identified-in-texas

U.S. geological survey discovers largest oil shale deposit yet

Largest Ever U.S. Shale Oil Deposit Identified in Texas

The Wolfcamp shale, which underlies a large swath of Texas roughly centered on the city of Midland, contains 20 billion barrels of oil that could be recovered with current technology.

According to preliminary estimates, the USGS believes the so-called Wolfcamp formation could contain as much as 20 billion barrels of oil worth as much as $900 billion. That would make it some three times bigger than North Dakota’s Bakken formation, the largest natural shale oil repository discovered to date. “The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil there is still the potential to find billions more,” Walter Guidroz, coordinator for the USGS’s energy resources program, said in a statement.

The development and application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” methods, techniques and technology has enabled pioneering shale oil and gas companies to extract the petroleum liquids contained in vast, hydrocarbon-rich shale deposits across the U.S. Fast growing production has spurred investment in construction of new pipelines to transport shale oil and gas to refineries and storage/distribution hubs hundreds, at times thousands, of kilometers away. Refiners, in turn, needed to develop new processes and equipment to refine the heavy, high sulfur shale oil to produce a form of usable liquid petroleum.


Production of liquid petroleum and natural gas fuels from “unconventional” shale oil deposits by U.S. companies has dramatically shifted the balance of global oil and gas production and fueled an equally dramatic, long-term decline in world oil and gas prices

Surging production of unconventional shale oil and gas provided the impetus for the U.S. to vault to the #1 position as the world’s largest oil producer. Furthermore, it appears there’s a lot more unconventional oil production potential held in US shale deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in November 2016 announced that a team of its exploration geologists had discovered the largest deposit of U.S. shale oil yet. The find is in West Texas’s Permian Basin, a geologically defined area that has played a historic role in the history of U.S. and global oil and gas exploration and production.

...Walter Guidroz, program coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources Program, said in the USGS press release, “The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more.”

https://www.eniday.com/en/technology_en/us-shale-oil-increase/

It's almost like the doomers in this thread live in a parallel universe, the cognitive dissonance here is breathtaking.
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
I posted this earlier in the thread:

To meet EIA projections More than 1 MILLION shale gas and tight oil wells would need to be drilled in the top plays, at a cost of $5.7 TRILLION, and require 100% of proven reserves plus 60-73% of unproven resources. (Proven reserves have been demonstrated by drilling to be technically and economically recoverable; unproven resources are thought to be technically recoverable but have not been demonstrated to be economically viable – as such they are much less certain than proven reserves.)

One can only assume that the EIA’s optimism is based on technological improvements made over recent years. Technological advances have included longer horizontal laterals, a tripling of water and proppant injection per well, and more fracking stages. But as the data show, these improvements have only led to a faster depletion of oil and gas reserves, not a growth in the total amount of oil and gas that can be produced. Ultimately, technology can’t overcome core characteristics of shale — steep decline rates (wells decline between 70-90% in the first three years, and field declines without new drilling typically range from 20-40% per year) and variable reservoir quality, with “sweet spots” or “core areas” containing the highest quality reservoir rock typically comprising 20% or less of overall play area.

Shale. Oil. Is. A. PONZI. Scam.
 

questor70

Ostrich
Iconoclast007 said:
Im open to "new" information

Yeah, right.

For instance, do you want me to post to article after article talking about peak oil DEMAND brought upon by electrification?

Start here:


Even if what Seba is talking about is overly optimistic, some of what he's going to say is highly likely and will, at the very least, take a bite out of PO consequences. And note, this lecture was BEFORE the infamous 2018 Geneva Auto show when almost ever automaker suddenly announced new long-range EVs.

I also see a lot of worst-case-scenario conjecture here as far as depletion goes, an error that made peakers discount unconventional in the first place until proven otherwise.

You guys are suffering from severe tunnel-vision and cherry-picking.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
US shale oil production isn't going down, even as oil price plunged earlier this decade:

47965133_14897233293872_rId8.png


US oil production has already bounced back to the 1970s peak, and is slated to double from there, due to improvements in technology which have brought costs way down, a key aspect that doomers somehow just can't seem to grasp.

[img=600x350]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/3/47965133_14897233293872_rId7.png[/img]

47965133_14897233293872_rId9.png


The shale oil sector is also better equipped than before to face both a rise in capital spending and a potential sub-$55/bbl oil price scenario. As can be expected, cashflow generation in the U.S. oil industry declined significantly in 2014-16.

By Q3 2016 however, based on the financial results of 50 shale operators constituting 60% of shale oil production, the sector became free cash flow (FCF) neutral for the first time in its history. The achievement is remarkable as the industry was not in this position even with oil above $100/bbl in 2012-2014. Any increase above the $50/bbl level will allow significant increases in FCF-financed, as opposed to debt-financed, capital spending. In other words, the sector will be able to expand oil production without damaging its balance sheet, therefore in a more sustainable manner. And even if prices remain at $50/bbl, the fact that capital spending is still significantly lower today than at the peaks of 2014 means that the industry can continue producing at the current rate and still break even.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/40...ion-characteristics-trends-outlook-march-2017
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
questor70 said:
Iconoclast007 said:
Im open to "new" information

Yeah, right.

For instance, do you want me to post to article after article talking about peak oil DEMAND brought upon by electrification?

Start here:


Even if what Seba is talking about is overly optimistic, some of what he's going to say is highly likely and will, at the very least, take a bite out of PO consequences. And note, this lecture was BEFORE the infamous 2018 Geneva Auto show when almost ever automaker suddenly announced new long-range EVs.

I also see a lot of worst-case-scenario conjecture here as far as depletion goes, an error that made peakers discount unconventional in the first place until proven otherwise.

You guys are suffering from severe tunnel-vision and cherry-picking.

I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

An early harbinger for the future? It may be very well that, similarly to the non-intuitive phenomenon of the post-peak decline in oil prices, we will see fewer, not more, doomers in the future. Actually it would explain the disappearance of many sites discussing the problem: theoildrum, thearchdruidreport, etc...

Seems a situation a bit like in the 1944-1945 Germany, German Endsieg (the Final Victory) approaching closer and closer with more and more German defeats.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Cognitive dissonance manifests itself when people instinctively refuse to acknowledge objective, new information that goes counter their strongly-held positions, so if Questor changed his mind on peak oil, he is actually overcoming CD here, not succumbing from it.

You doomer guys are refusing to acknowledge this objective reality:

[img=600x400]https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/3/47965133_14897233293872_rId15.png[/img]

1- shale oil production prices are dropping fast due to new tech and process improvements

2- the quantity of recoverable shale oil discovered in the past decade is huge. What was inaccessible 10 years ago is a lot less than what is today, and most probably, a lot less than what will be accessible in a decade or two.

3- the investments already in place have resulted in an industry that is resilient and can withstand if not thrive in a $50 oil environment.
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
911,

What Tony is saying in that video is true. Brushless electric motors paired with todays battery technology are going to disrupt personal transportation globally over the next 5 years.

It is happenning now, Because of peak oil. It has to happen now BECAUSE peak oil.

Unfortonately our economic system is based on growth and growth cannot occurr without increased energy available. its thermodynamicly impossible . Shale oils depletion curves have NOT been overcome by technology. The russians have known about fracking for a long time. They realised its a waste of money and never pursued it. Its the USA in its infinite wisdom has created a huge industry based on a mountain of debt at artificially low interest, that has never made a profit and never will.

The tremendous depletion curves, record junk debt, unprofitability and low energy returned on energy invested is the most important aspects to keep in mind when you discuss the foundation of your case you make about peak oil. Quite a weak one.

I dont know what hopium your smoking but $50 oil is not profitable to the worlds oil producers. They are dropping like flies at 60 per barrell!!

Crops are failing and grain reserves depleted.

. Largest oil reserves and their Governmwnts are collapsing, peiple are starving(venezuela)Iran, Iraq, Syria) ,

sovereighn debt and currency is collapsing (turkey, argentina, emerging market)

We have the lowest interest rates in history and no real profitable ways to put all the capital to work that is not canibalising other sectors ie Amazon. Even with QE, NIRP, Bailins and outs... The world economy is on the verge of collapse.

Most sheeple are ignoring what really matters and focused on the disinformation from mainstream media. The media is parsing out this nonsense and folks are beleiving it.

Iconoclast007
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
That was hard, Iconoclast, yes. To say all the cold truths at the same time.
Wasn't it Hobbes who said "Hell is the truth realized too late"?!
It reminds me about this truly scary film, Harry Angel,
"I know who I am"
"How terrible is wisdom when it brings no profit to the wise"
That goes against entire conditioning of our culture, which equates knowledge/wisdom with the way to perfection.
"For 12 years you have lived on borrowed time, Johny"

From time to time even Hollywood says the truth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb1AjU67W2s

There is a hidden, disturbing message in this film, too. A message hidden in names. Angel [the name of character] loses to the devil, Louis Cypher.

What personally gives me creeps is that both Olduvai Theory of Robert Duncan and ETP thermodynamic oil extraction model of The Hill Group arrived at the same year, 2030, as the end of an industrial civilization. The trend does not change.

No wonder people turning to religion, like Roosh. It would be quite unexpected, but not impossible, and maybe for the best, if RVF would finally turn into the group of monastics.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Contrary to what many may think here, I have no stake in doomerism. I learnt about peak oil by accident long time ago, and when shale revolution started I did believe in it too, initially, so much that I left the subject for years, only to get awaken to the thema again last year by the protests in France.

Truth is true.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
Kaligula.

The truth is that we are likely to experience the largest die off of humans in thousands of years by 2030. You may survive, many will die. You may wish you died. Hopefully the survivors can drive electric cars,lol

Life is naturally harsh, brutal, short.

We are all soft. That will change soon. Life will go on. It is not the end, merely a change.

The good news is that feminism will end in an instant when SHTF. Harems will once again be normal.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Iconoclast007 said:
Kaligula.

The truth is that we are likely to experience the largest die off of humans in thousands of years by 2030. You may survive, many will die. You may wish you died. Hopefully the survivors can drive electric cars,lol

Life is naturally harsh, brutal, short.

We are all soft. That will change soon. Life will go on. It is not the end, merely a change.

The good news is that feminism will end in an instant when SHTF. Harems will once again be normal.

Yes, but those harems will be mainly for work, not for reproduction.

In more archaic cultures - India, Africa - women still do most of work.

Maybe not just harems, but simply slaves.

But well, we will be maybe the first civilization that will go down really knowing why, fulfilling Apollonian "Know Thyself". Our wisdom will be the Neronian pleasure of watching Rome burning.
How terrible is wisdom when it brings no profit to the wise.
 
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