James Kunstler and Peak Oil

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Oberrheiner said:
Of course there is no political solution, politics is the problem.

Conservative want to conserve .. what exactly ?
Life just does not work this way, you either improve or you regress, there is no conservation possible - it's either up or down.

You need to build up your life in a way that the politics around you do not matter.
The muslims here did it, so technically it's possible.
How we manage (or don't), we will witness in our lifetime, but in any case this should be your number one priority, not peak oil, global warming, or whatever else the scare industry is currently busy with.

Free software is great, you just need to be realistic and understand that the GPL cannot force human nature to change, nothing can.
My projects are BSD-licensed, those who want (and can) get something out of it do, those who want to help can too, and the other morons .. they will not be changed by a license, let's get real.

This is often misunderstood but Linus said it himself, his OS works because its development was darwinistic.
The pirate party was always left/liberal and not darwinist, so it could never have worked containing such a fundamental contradiction.
Also, wasn't it full of women ?

I mean come on what is this, east germany ?
220px-14-07-01-Julia-Reda-by-RalfR-02.jpg


And I didn't take the worst picture, in some she looks like a 12-yo gamer boy, in others like a hippopotamus ..
How can you put your faith in someone like that ?

She can't manage her own body, but she should manage a country ? Hello .. ?
Oberrheiner was right. Physiognomy may be real.

Spitzel (rat), maybe even Stasi.

Julia Reda has just accused her party colleague of sexual abuse, and her party, The Pirates, of tolerating it. Compared him to Weinstein!

The accused is facing just one complaint, after another one has been already withdrawn. The complaint has not been investigated yet, but she has already decided and she is leaving Pirates.

Typisch Deutsch. Typically German.
Holy German actions are self-justyfying, no need to insult her with investigations.

What a bitch. Actually I heard her in radio two days ago, frothing, though in a noble case, still frothing, unbalanced as she is.
A party slut, perhaps. Started with SPD (socialists), moved to Pirates to play a female face, and now moving to the Greens. Yes, no chance for her to renew MEP mandate in her small party, so it is time not only to abandon ship but to put it ablaze! To buy some points with a new party. "Don't vote for Pirates!"

In an ironic way, she is a true pirate, cares only about herself.


A small, boutique party should never import front faces from a mainstream party.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/reda-piratenpartei-101.html
 
Iconoclast007 said:

Of course, there can't be any reasons why oil development in Mexico has slowed over the past decade or so. Must be that they've run out entirely! PEAK OIL IS HERE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

As security unraveled, at least two Pemex workers were killed and 16 were kidnapped as gangs demanded protection money from oil firms and blocked work crews from accessing wells and pipelines. A manager with Weatherford International Ltd (WFT.N), the Switzerland-based oilfield services firm, was also murdered.
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
Samuelbroberts.

Lay of the hopium its clouding your judgement.

Mexico is straight fucked and headed towards Venezuela very soon.

[In Mexico] “Production peaked in 2004/2005 at just over 3.5 million b/d, so the overall decline is approaching 50%…Only three years since 1999 have had reserve replacement ratios greater than 100%. Many years’ numbers have actually been negative, some of them significantly so, and the estimated ultimate recovery has been revised slightly downwards overall.”

George Kaplan, oil industry analyst
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
SamuelBRoberts said:
Iconoclast007 said:

Of course, there can't be any reasons why oil development in Mexico has slowed over the past decade or so. Must be that they've run out entirely! PEAK OIL IS HERE! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!

MILLIONS upon MILLIONS will DIE!!!! 2030!!!!... HAREMS1!!!!
ZOMBIES1!!! You'll have to eat your shoes to make it through 2031!! ...
Triglypuff will be a size 2 by 2030 6 months after she eats her last cat!

[img=600x400]https://www.focus-economics.com/data/charts_summary/Corn.gif[/img]
US Corn price/bushel

[img=600x300]https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-G7TATkfF...gAWTFIRE0JlNmOYvQCLcB/s640/Wheat+IA.jpg[/img]

[img=600x400]https://www.seeitmarket.com/wp-cont...liott-wave-chart-anlaysis_august-17.png[/img]
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

Food was plentifull and cheap in the great depression. Farmers could not make a profit. Food was available but few could afford it. We are headed to a stagflation environment..

You guys really need to wrap your minds around deflationary energy consequences.

Lets watch those grain prices as 2019 progresses. A leveraged long play on basket of grains could prove profitable.
 

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Kaligula

Woodpecker
Iconoclast007 said:
See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

Food was plentifull and cheap in the great depression. Farmers could not make a profit. Food was available but few could afford it. We are headed to a stagflation environment..

You guys really need to wrap your minds around deflationary energy consequences.

Lets watch those grain prices as 2019 progresses. A leveraged long play on basket of grains could prove profitable.

The 2019 line should be closer to 2050. Don't enough will power to put us on the verge of abyss, after all...?

In 2050 (pretty late, actually) we are already back in Dark Ages, with high level of deaths and births. It essentially means a lot of children dying in their childhood, no birth control, every woman having a child every year, probably harems (no stranded women, mass die-off of cat ladies).
 
Iconoclast007 said:
See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

I'm sorry, what?
 

questor70

Ostrich
SamuelBRoberts said:
Iconoclast007 said:
See attached limits to growth analysis that seems to be spot on. They call for food shortages to start soon. I think they will be right. The grand solar minimum will not help. Bear in mind that Food is a calorie of oil converted. As energy is in price decline due to energy deflation, it stands to reason that until shortages occurr, food will be plentifull.

I'm sorry, what?

I've heard all these arguments before.

10+ years ago peak oilers tried to popularize the idea that food is merely converted oil thanks to things like plastic packaging and shipping and diesel tractors.

Turns out that the amount of oil used in food production is highly overstated. Just to grow food, fertilizer uses natural gas as a feedstock (the haber bosch process). That process of fixing nitrogen can also be done through renewables. It was once done through hydro-power, for instance. So as crappy as our soil fertility is without chemical inputs, as long as we have energy, we can still force food production to happen. But for now, there's a glut of natural gas as fracking is primarly about natural gas rather than oil.

Now, I know the sentiment here is overwhelmingly global warming denialist, but the biggest threat to food production is really climate change, not energy shortages. We can't grow all our food under carefully controlled greenhouses. So we're dependent on a stable climate and rainfall and keeping pests/diseases at bay. In addition to that, the world's oceans are rapidly dying (through acidification, dead-zones, and overfishing).

There are simply too many humans on this planet as the limits to growth chart demonstrates. All I'm saying is the proximate threat at present is probably not energy but climate/ecology which will continue to degrade as we use fossil fuels and consume natural resources through overpopulation.
 

questor70

Ostrich
Kaligula said:
I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

How have I "changed sides"?

It's this whole tribalism surrounding belief systems that is the reason why people tend to always cling to inaccurate visions of the future.

The future doesn't unfold according to anyone's wants (or fears). Things don't happen at our preferred pace, and people are really impatient, ADD creatures, desperate to validate our Cassandra syndrome.

The problem with doomers such as yourself is you feel that in order to hold onto your apocalyptic narratives that you have to predict that a hard crash is going to happen literally any day now, soon enough for you to go around flailing your arums around and generating lots of attention (which is, of course, the main reason to do it, right? Be honest.). That "any day now" will just keep shifting into the future as it doesn't happen. It will always be this phenomenon of constantly biting your nails waiting for the other shoe to drop and linking to zerohedge and linking to zerohedge and trying to get a rise out of people.

I don't deny that it's within the realm of possibilities, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. What 2008 taught me is that the system is much more resilient. It's not really a house of cards. Maybe the financial system is, but the bedrock of our global agricultural, manufacturing, and energy system is more durable than that. It's not that it's sustainable, just that it's still got enough tricks up its sleeve that people probably should not be thinking of retreating into a bunker in a narrow timeframe. Once you go beyond this I can see rapid climate change causes all sorts of stress and strain on the food system.

I'm blase' about this not because I think the future's gonna be great. It's because I've moved through the stages of grief. Obviously I'm worried about things but there's little anyone can do about it at this point. Raising awareness has failed. Activism has failed. Nobody gives a shit. Nobody's gonna change their behavior. It's just gonna play out how it plays out.

I've come across a lot of people in my time who seem to have invested hundreds or even thousands of hours keyboard warrioring on these topics and it's a huge waste of time. I spent years doing this sort of thing way back when. You have to learn to let go and make the most of the time you're given.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
questor70 said:
Kaligula said:
I find it interesting to notice that questor70, the early defender of peak oil & lifeboat ethics in this thread, suddenly seems to have changed sites. Cognitive dissonance at work?

How have I "changed sides"?

It's this whole tribalism surrounding belief systems that is the reason why people tend to always cling to inaccurate visions of the future.

The future doesn't unfold according to anyone's wants (or fears). Things don't happen at our preferred pace, and people are really impatient, ADD creatures, desperate to validate our Cassandra syndrome.

The problem with doomers such as yourself is you feel that in order to hold onto your apocalyptic narratives that you have to predict that a hard crash is going to happen literally any day now, soon enough for you to go around flailing your arums around and generating lots of attention (which is, of course, the main reason to do it, right? Be honest.). That "any day now" will just keep shifting into the future as it doesn't happen. It will always be this phenomenon of constantly biting your nails waiting for the other shoe to drop and linking to zerohedge and linking to zerohedge and trying to get a rise out of people.

I don't deny that it's within the realm of possibilities, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. What 2008 taught me is that the system is much more resilient. It's not really a house of cards. Maybe the financial system is, but the bedrock of our global agricultural, manufacturing, and energy system is more durable than that. It's not that it's sustainable, just that it's still got enough tricks up its sleeve that people probably should not be thinking of retreating into a bunker in a narrow timeframe. Once you go beyond this I can see rapid climate change causes all sorts of stress and strain on the food system.

I'm blase' about this not because I think the future's gonna be great. It's because I've moved through the stages of grief. Obviously I'm worried about things but there's little anyone can do about it at this point. Raising awareness has failed. Activism has failed. Nobody gives a shit. Nobody's gonna change their behavior. It's just gonna play out how it plays out.

I've come across a lot of people in my time who seem to have invested hundreds or even thousands of hours keyboard warrioring on these topics and it's a huge waste of time. I spent years doing this sort of thing way back when. You have to learn to let go and make the most of the time you're given.

That sounds reasonable what you said, questor. But that its not true. 2008 learnt us nothing. You are a Syren's voice, questor.
The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil.

Obviously there is something strange in the awe and contemplation such huge events provoke - it is like the gates of future closing before our own eyes - but actually I think it is a more appropriate reaction than pretending that the world does not exist.
We are part of this world, aren't we?

Like the knight in Bergman's Seventh Seal, let's have some respect for ourselves, enough to look the death straight into the eye, and not be mumbling in a hospital 'but maybe this therapy will help? Or that one?'


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4yXBIigZbg
 

questor70

Ostrich
"The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil."

If you think an ice age is a probability you're just that much farther from any firm grasp on the trendlines, sorry.

But to follow your logic, does it really matter in the end?

The only thing that matters is what you're gonna do with the time you're given, ala Gandalf. That's it. Anything more is just a moses complex.

I mean, hey, if you want to bang out a few hundred more posts on this topic for the next couple years, be my guests, but there are other more fruitful things to do with your time.

The whole reason I took the (manosphere) red pill is I wanted to get laid more out of that sense of mortality. You know, tend to the bucket-list.

Life is precious and it goes by fast. Carpe diem.
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
Have you ever looked into the solar cycles? There is very strong evidence that the recent warming was related to the end of a warming cycle and we are now headed into a cooling cycle.

It makes sense to me that the sun is the greatest driver of our climate. Car emmissions and cow farts just dont seem as powerful. But im not a scientist.

As far as spending time looking into Peak Oil and Climate change. We are all wasting our time to various extent whether we are looking into or away from our fears, the unknown etc. Concerning these matters.

I like to compartmentalize my thinking in these matters so as not to slow down my efforts for bucket list items, game etc.. I have spent time consider the information and I choose to believe that modern industrial civilization is likely to experience a decline in quality of life in coming years, your mileage may vary. I also put that knowledge in a box when pursuing day to day life as if it doesnt exist. I live for the now.

To be honest ive learned to not speak of these matters to most folks as it is a time sink, similar to this thread. Most folks prefer to not know anyway and look away. . Perhaps this thread is an indulgence in what I deny myself often in conversation.
 

Oberrheiner

Pelican
Kaligula said:
Oberrheiner said:
Of course there is no political solution, politics is the problem.

Conservative want to conserve .. what exactly ?
Life just does not work this way, you either improve or you regress, there is no conservation possible - it's either up or down.

You need to build up your life in a way that the politics around you do not matter.
The muslims here did it, so technically it's possible.
How we manage (or don't), we will witness in our lifetime, but in any case this should be your number one priority, not peak oil, global warming, or whatever else the scare industry is currently busy with.

Free software is great, you just need to be realistic and understand that the GPL cannot force human nature to change, nothing can.
My projects are BSD-licensed, those who want (and can) get something out of it do, those who want to help can too, and the other morons .. they will not be changed by a license, let's get real.

This is often misunderstood but Linus said it himself, his OS works because its development was darwinistic.
The pirate party was always left/liberal and not darwinist, so it could never have worked containing such a fundamental contradiction.
Also, wasn't it full of women ?

I mean come on what is this, east germany ?
220px-14-07-01-Julia-Reda-by-RalfR-02.jpg


And I didn't take the worst picture, in some she looks like a 12-yo gamer boy, in others like a hippopotamus ..
How can you put your faith in someone like that ?

She can't manage her own body, but she should manage a country ? Hello .. ?
Oberrheiner was right. Physiognomy may be real.

Spitzel (rat), maybe even Stasi.

Julia Reda has just accused her party colleague of sexual abuse, and her party, The Pirates, of tolerating it. Compared him to Weinstein!

The accused is facing just one complaint, after another one has been already withdrawn. The complaint has not been investigated yet, but she has already decided and she is leaving Pirates.

Typisch Deutsch. Typically German.
Holy German actions are self-justyfying, no need to insult her with investigations.

What a bitch. Actually I heard her in radio two days ago, frothing, though in a noble case, still frothing, unbalanced as she is.
A party slut, perhaps. Started with SPD (socialists), moved to Pirates to play a female face, and now moving to the Greens. Yes, no chance for her to renew MEP mandate in her small party, so it is time not only to abandon ship but to put it ablaze! To buy some points with a new party. "Don't vote for Pirates!"

In an ironic way, she is a true pirate, cares only about herself.


A small, boutique party should never import front faces from a mainstream party.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/reda-piratenpartei-101.html

Well, how surprising ..
What can I say, it's just politics.

Voting is like playing the lottery - except it's free and you never win of course.
It exists only so that people believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Well I've been there, and there isn't.
Embrace the tunnel my friends !
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
questor70 said:
"The only question remaining is which calamity will strike first: an ice age, or a peak oil."

If you think an ice age is a probability you're just that much farther from any firm grasp on the trendlines, sorry.

But to follow your logic, does it really matter in the end?

The only thing that matters is what you're gonna do with the time you're given, ala Gandalf. That's it. Anything more is just a moses complex.

I mean, hey, if you want to bang out a few hundred more posts on this topic for the next couple years, be my guests, but there are other more fruitful things to do with your time.

The whole reason I took the (manosphere) red pill is I wanted to get laid more out of that sense of mortality. You know, tend to the bucket-list.

Life is precious and it goes by fast. Carpe diem.

I came to conclusion that ice age will strike first, as it is possible to explain it as a climate catastrophe, natural disaster, and as such to declare humanity itself guilty , which should help with control efforts on the side of elite. As you noticed, everybody in the know was expecting that peak oil would strike already years ago. The tide was turnend by shale oil. Who did decide about it?
Maybe someone in control who thought it preferable to end it all with natural disaster, shale oil in this case being just a bridge to a natural calamity, and not to the great electric civilization? The fact that peak oil and ice age with high probabilty will strike in few years simultaneously is a coincidence extremely unlucky for humanity, but in a way lucky for its controllers. (...)

Whatever, if such considerations are worthless, then please explain inordinate interest in Jewish consipracy subejcts at this forum? Let us be clear: whatever Jewish conspiracy does or not exist, it will go down with peak oil and ice age, like tears in rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoAzpa1x7jU
Why people feel that it is somehow commendable to investigate the place of Jews in the modern Western society, when this society is sliding towards collapse anyway?! Because it is easier to fight with people than with nature?

As for my interest in the subject, the subject may be seen as morbid from a modern perspective, but is a kind of ultimate secret which changes the way you see our society. The real forbidden knowledge.
Actually, I have said in another thread that I wish I had never learnt about peak oil -I learnt about it by accident, researching other subjects, have never been an activist like you - but you know, not everyone can take blue pill back.

Knowledge frees from illusions, too. Living in truth has a value in itself. What to do, what not to do. It suddenly connects you with reality. When studying modern philosophy or ethics, you may be confronted with so called ethics of cases, cases being thought expriements when you discuss problems like: As a Kantian, could you lie when Gestapo comes to your house and ask for Jewish tenants? Most famous is probably the infamous trolley problem, typically morbid English exercise in black humour (the English, being utilitarist, specilize in taking down ideas, not creating them), which was somehow later taken seriously by credulous Americans.
However, considering such problems in our reality you do know they are just that - experiments. No reality.
Try say to yourself: the trolley problem is real. It Is real. Do you believe it?!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolley_problem

I could not. Because it did not have 'the reality factor'.
Peak oil and ice age are thought experiments with enormous reality factor. There is an entertaining element of thought experiments, of adventure, of exploring new lands, too ( new for the time being, of course).
But above all, reality has quality in itself. Even in everyday life, people want 'real' stories, not fictional. News pretend to be real, not fictional. What do you want to read: 'My secret meetings with unicorns in real life', or 'Eat, Pray, Love' ?!

It changes how do you think about our society and its future.
Hm. One suddenly knows that academic career is an illusion not worthy of pursuing etc. Science is not mighty juggernaut of knowledge, but a veil of social control over unknown (the fact that solar minimum started being discussed only recently testifies to the pathetic state of our 'science'). No children for now. No long term debts. BUt maybe short term. Or maybe become a criminal like the guy in 'Breaking Bad' ? A revenge on enemy? Or maybe try to be a monk in Asia? And so on.

I could compare this situation to learning that deadly disease with high probability will kill me in few years. So what I will do in these next years?
But my perspective is opposite of yours in the sense that for me there is no bucket list anymore.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
One thing I am always wondering about - at what level people start to be 'people in the know'...?

Take, for example, this article from such a highbrow magazine like 'The New York Review of Books':

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/04/04/future-without-fossil-fuels/

Is Bill MCkibben, who wrote the piece, a true believer, or a skillful con-man...?
Or maybe a great master of doublethink?

I cannot but must read the article as a great exercise on the subject 'How to make choice out of necessity'. And yet, apparenntly even the readers of NYRB are not to be in the know. So who is to be?

Anyway, the only suspicious remark, which puts the internal logic of this reality in question, is this:
One obvious question is why the fossil fuel companies don’t simply transform themselves into renewable energy companies and use the huge cash flows they still have to gain control of future markets.

Yes,why don't they want to take upon those great solar opportunities? (wind may not be so popular any more, since necessary rare earth minerals monopolized by China).


PS. The situation reminds me a bit Kubrick's 'The Eyes Wide Shut', where people in the know are Mr Ziegler (BTW, Ziegler means mason in German), and maybe the Rainbow shop owner, but the liberal intelligentsia of New York aka Tom Cruise & Nicole Kidman are to remain the biggest suckers of the entire show.
 

Iconoclast007

Woodpecker
Kaligula,

As you probably allready know. The brutal truth is that Modern industrial civilization cannot survive without conventional high eroei oil of which we are past peak and in terminal decline. Solar and other alternative energy will prove prudent at a world population of 500 Million. (95%die-off)
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Things are popping.

Despite what the public news say, it wasn't refineries that were hit in Saudi Arabia, but GOSP (gas-oil separation plants) plants. Saudi Arabia lost its entire export production.

Saudi oil is the anchor of the petrodollar scheme. The situation is critical.

It may be or not our Sarajevo 1914 experience. On Monday I was on a commuter train, and watched all those busy people - they were like that in August 1914 too.
 
Fuck the Saudi sheiks. We're energy independent, we don't need them. Between the US, Mexico, and Canada, we're fine. Everybody else and their buyers though, might be panic time.
 
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