James Kunstler and Peak Oil

debeguiled

Peacock
Gold Member
I like him when he gets cranky in his comments section.


http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/fairy-tale/



sprawlcapital
January 8, 2018 at 10:07 am #
I watched just a few minute of the Golden Globes last night, the part where the host was–in jest– telling Oprah that she was not qualified to be president. The point being that it was at a similar event a few years ago that Trump was ridiculed; that supposedly being the defining moment that convinced him to run for the presidency.

I must admit, until last night it had never occurred to me that Oprah Winfrey might be president. We shall see, if we are still around in 2020. She is at least literate.


shotho
January 8, 2018 at 10:11 am #
Sounds like a promotion to me. And how in the world do you put aside skin color, ethnic origin, religious order and gender? What else is left?


James Howard Kunstler
January 8, 2018 at 10:16 am #
How about the deep mystery of human personality, you jackass. — JHK
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Kunstler believes in catastrophic global warming, which is
pretty dumb/blue pill. There is some quality content on his
blog but some blind spots as well.

I doubt he would acknowledge the abiogenic nature of oil,
the fact that most of it does not actually derive from the
decomposition of living material (fossils), but from basic
inorganic geological processes, which explains why there
are a lot of "fossil fuels" in other planets and moons in the
solar system where there has never been any plants or animals.

Oil prices adjusted for inflation and world production contradict
the notion of peak oil:

CMNWd1QWcAA-JYj.jpg


WorldOilProd1.jpeg
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
I believe Peak Oil is real. My introduction to it was not Kunstler (BTW, in German his surname means "artist"), but the very good portal,TheOilDrum. I ventured there first time because me interest in the fall of Rome, which took me to this artcile by Ugo Bardi:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528

When shale oil appeared, I thought that there is some respite, but now it seems there is not. Shale ole provides us with nothing but gasoline, but we need diesel, bunker fuel, kerosene etc ... This is probably the reason why Macron taxed diesels in France. He taxed diesel, as there is not enough diesel and he wants to lower the diesel usage to save it. From ecology point of view, there is nothing especially friendly in diesel tax.
Now he has a revolution crawling at his feet.

The most scary part is so called Olduvai Theory, the electric theory of civilization, according to which our civilization will be more or less dead in 20 years, so in ~ 2040:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/1122

I believe the climate change is a cover story for peak oil since the climate change in itself is not so imminent as peak oil.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
This (the Olduvai theory) is why I am truly afraid of a nuclear war, since killing a very large number of humans seems to be the only way to postpone the final end of civilization (anywhere). As immoral and disturbing it is, it is simple too: either more resources, or fewer consumers of resources. Well, the rich buy land in New Zealand, which is far at the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere (save Antarctica). And in case of a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere is still somehow protected due to patterns of air circulation.
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
I dont know about peak oil but what is actively affecting us now is the sun and poles. I've been following this guys youtube channel -

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ


He has shown how the poles shifting has potential effects on the seismic and volcano activity we have and are currently experiencing around the globe with the ring of fire being the area affected by a South Pole shift.

Ignore the video endings where he lays on the cheese but his content is pretty good.
 
Kaligula said:
This (the Olduvai theory) is why I am truly afraid of a nuclear war, since killing a very large number of humans seems to be the only way to postpone the final end of civilization (anywhere). As immoral and disturbing it is, it is simple too: either more resources, or fewer consumers of resources. Well, the rich buy land in New Zealand, which is far at the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere (save Antarctica). And in case of a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere is still somehow protected due to patterns of air circulation.


You don't need to worry about it because it's goofy pseudoscientific nonsense, a crank hypothesis dressed up in the language of science ("A single pulse waveform") to lend credibility to a theory with absolutely no data to support it.

The US spends less on energy now than we did in the 1970s, which is exactly the opposite of what the theory predicts.

main.png
 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Kaligula said:
When shale oil appeared, I thought that there is some respite, but now it seems there is not. Shale ole provides us with nothing but gasoline, but we need diesel, bunker fuel, kerosene etc ...

I am not sure where you got that. Shale oil is light (low viscosity) and sweet (low sulfur) and is being used as a replacement for Mid East crude (which is also light and sweet). Here on the east coast, there are daily oil trains bringing crude to the refineries. It is being made into diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, etc. What you will get less of with light crude is residuals such as No. 6 oil and asphalt. The latter used to primarily come from heavy crude out of California, Mexico, and Venezuela. During the 1990s, US refiners retooled to instead turn heavy sour crude into light distillates (i.e. gasoline).
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts said:
Kaligula said:
This (the Olduvai theory) is why I am truly afraid of a nuclear war, since killing a very large number of humans seems to be the only way to postpone the final end of civilization (anywhere). As immoral and disturbing it is, it is simple too: either more resources, or fewer consumers of resources. Well, the rich buy land in New Zealand, which is far at the bottom of the Southern Hemisphere (save Antarctica). And in case of a nuclear war in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere is still somehow protected due to patterns of air circulation.


You don't need to worry about it because it's goofy pseudoscientific nonsense, a crank hypothesis dressed up in the language of science ("A single pulse waveform") to lend credibility to a theory with absolutely no data to support it.

The US spends less on energy now than we did in the 1970s, which is exactly the opposite of what the theory predicts.

main.png
I am in Europe and energy prices here are going up not only in France.
And, well, it is not so goofy. First, GDP is just a lump sum in a given currency, all together with taxes etc. You can have high GDP, big taxes, low disposable income. It is what is happening in France now.

Second - very important and hard to understand for a lot of people who think that science of economy is as real as the invisible hand of market - there is no simple demand-production correlation between the amount of produced energy and the prices here. Peak oil theory has an explanation here, the demand destruction.
Let's say the oil price was once 140$, now it is 50$. People believing in the invisible hand of market would say that more oil is being produced, so the price went down. This is not true.
The price went down because all economic activity, which could not take the oil price in the 50-140$ brackets, simply ceased. In other words, the demand for 50-140$ oil disappeared. Hence the name for theory, the demand destruction.
Since there will be less and less oil in the 0-50 $ price brackets, there will be less and less economic activity. Of course, there will be cycles of prices going up and down, but in the end, economy (and our civilization) can only pay so much for energy. At some point this snake starts eating itself....
 
There's not less and less economic activity, though.

But yeah, if you wanna worry yourself into an early grave like the last generation of peak oilers did, go and have a good time.
 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Over the past year I have been involved in a project that involves turning waste products into liquid fuels. You can pretty much replace transportation fuels and a variety of other chemicals using bio based feed-stocks (hemp, agricultural waste, etc.), coal, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The trick is you first have to turn the feed stock into synthesis gas (H2 & CO). Once you get 2 mols of H2 & 1 mol of CO, you can make a lot different chemicals:

syngas.jpg



It is not a question of technology replacing oil as a feed-stock, it is an issue of cost. I could replace all the gasoline used in the USA by processing 180,000 tons per day of hemp.... it wouldn't be remotely profitable given the current price of oil.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Hell_Is_Like_Newark said:
Kaligula said:
When shale oil appeared, I thought that there is some respite, but now it seems there is not. Shale ole provides us with nothing but gasoline, but we need diesel, bunker fuel, kerosene etc ...

I am not sure where you got that. Shale oil is light (low viscosity) and sweet (low sulfur) and is being used as a replacement for Mid East crude (which is also light and sweet). Here on the east coast, there are daily oil trains bringing crude to the refineries. It is being made into diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, etc. What you will get less of with light crude is residuals such as No. 6 oil and asphalt. The latter used to primarily come from heavy crude out of California, Mexico, and Venezuela. During the 1990s, US refiners retooled to instead turn heavy sour crude into light distillates (i.e. gasoline).

From Ugo Bardi, and some article at zerohedge which put a link between unrest in France and peak oil (however, not speaking about diesel per se). Then I watched some video from France where enraged people were complaining that suddenly, after encouraging diesels for years, the state has now started to tax them heavily under the disguise of "ecology tax". And then I put everyhing together....

From Ugo Bardi blog:

Shale oil has changed a lot of things in the oil industry, but it couldn't avoid the decline of conventional oil. That, in turn, had consequences: shale oil is light oil, not easily converted to the kind of fuel (diesel) which is the most important transportation fuel, nowadays. That seems to have forced the oil industry into converting more and more "heavy" oil into diesel fuel but, even so, diesel fuel is becoming gradually more scarce and more expensive, to the point that its production may have peaked in 2015. In addition, it has created a dearth of heavy oil, the fuel of choice for marine transportation. In short, the famed "peak oil" is arriving not all together, but piecemeal -- affecting some kinds of fuels faster than others.


https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/12/peak-diesel-or-no-peak-diesel-debate.html


Well, he does not say that you cannot get diesel from shale oil, but that it is hard to do (i.e. either more expensive or inefficient).
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
Hell_Is_Like_Newark said:
Over the past year I have been involved in a project that involves turning waste products into liquid fuels. You can pretty much replace transportation fuels and a variety of other chemicals using bio based feed-stocks (hemp, agricultural waste, etc.), coal, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The trick is you first have to turn the feed stock into synthesis gas (H2 & CO). Once you get 2 mols of H2 & 1 mol of CO, you can make a lot different chemicals:

syngas.jpg



It is not a question of technology replacing oil as a feed-stock, it is an issue of cost. I could replace all the gasoline used in the USA by processing 180,000 tons per day of hemp.... it wouldn't be remotely profitable given the current price of oil.

Yes, the price, that is the point, exactly. For the point of price, we do not recover gold from seawater even though technology exists. The trouble with hemp and Fischer-Tropf process, is that they are all endothermic processes, they need energy, energy that mostly comes from natural gas (like in fertilizer production). However, natural gas is more localized than oil, meaning it cannot be so easily transported as oil. But the natgas is also supposed to peak soon (I have read ~ 2030), and then we are left with coal, which is even more localized than natural gas. The moment we have to rely mainly on coal to carry on, the real trouble will start, I think ....Well, if coal could be so efficiently liquified, I suppose Germans would fight a bit longer in WWII.... But, in fact, they sometimes were driving tanks one way only, hoping to find retour fuel in US or Soviet fuel dumps...
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts said:
There's not less and less economic activity, though.

But yeah, if you wanna worry yourself into an early grave like the last generation of peak oilers did, go and have a good time.

Maybe not, but a lot of economic activity now is flying on the magic carpet of debt.
Without debt, it would be less economic activity. The magical debt plays the role of a real, re-invested profit which did not appear due to the rising energy costs.

Truly, I would be really happy if peak oil would be a fake event, I even thought so when the shale oil was introduced, but I see that the peak comes around again.... I don't see easy solutions, should they be somewhere, they are long overdue as a lot of rich people (=people who can make themselves heard) have been losing money for some time already...

Don't know who controls the world at the highest levers of power.... but peak oil is much more real than global warming, yet we heard almost nothing about it. The world controllers of this Brave New World clearly do not think the people can take it.

In another corner, like a crazy one, Putin now shows off some Wunderwaffe to the world every few months... and all those Wunderwaffen are not for Syria battlefield, are they? They are all long range strategic weapons. Surely he knows that Russia is a premium prize for everyone thirsting for some resources...

The pattern is here, and it is not a pattern of hope. In such moments, I am actually jealous of Africans who still believe in a paradise in Europa. Faith is such a great thing, a consolation of hope it is, indeed...

All in all, like Saint Augustine, I would be a really happy to sit coming times over in some New Zealand monastery or commune... really give me a call if you know one! (unfortunately not having enough money to buy a land there and set up my own)
Monk mode for years, listening to Waltzing Mathilda...
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Kaligula said:
I believe Peak Oil is real. My introduction to it was not Kunstler (BTW, in German his surname means "artist"), but the very good portal,TheOilDrum. I ventured there first time because me interest in the fall of Rome, which took me to this artcile by Ugo Bardi:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528

When shale oil appeared, I thought that there is some respite, but now it seems there is not. Shale ole provides us with nothing but gasoline, but we need diesel, bunker fuel, kerosene etc ... This is probably the reason why Macron taxed diesels in France. He taxed diesel, as there is not enough diesel and he wants to lower the diesel usage to save it. From ecology point of view, there is nothing especially friendly in diesel tax.
Now he has a revolution crawling at his feet.

The most scary part is so called Olduvai Theory, the electric theory of civilization, according to which our civilization will be more or less dead in 20 years, so in ~ 2040:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/1122

I believe the climate change is a cover story for peak oil since the climate change in itself is not so imminent as peak oil.

It is precisely the opposite, the global warming agenda is there to artificially restrict the use of so-called fossil fuels. Oil oligarchs like the Rockefellers are 100% behind this agenda, they stand to make more money through carbon trade, and want to further impoverish the middle class (especially the rural and suburban middle class, in favor of blue state urban soycialists who live in small pads - see France's Gilets Jaunes).

The term "fossil fuel" is NLP weaponized verbiage coined by JD Rockefeller in order to subconsciously promote the notion that these fuels are scarce. North America has a century or two's worth in oil reserves, and several centuries worth of coal. Cucks like Trudeau are destroying our economic potential with this globalist politically-motivated war on oil, gas and coal.
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
911 said:
Kaligula said:
I believe Peak Oil is real. My introduction to it was not Kunstler (BTW, in German his surname means "artist"), but the very good portal,TheOilDrum. I ventured there first time because me interest in the fall of Rome, which took me to this artcile by Ugo Bardi:

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528

When shale oil appeared, I thought that there is some respite, but now it seems there is not. Shale ole provides us with nothing but gasoline, but we need diesel, bunker fuel, kerosene etc ... This is probably the reason why Macron taxed diesels in France. He taxed diesel, as there is not enough diesel and he wants to lower the diesel usage to save it. From ecology point of view, there is nothing especially friendly in diesel tax.
Now he has a revolution crawling at his feet.

The most scary part is so called Olduvai Theory, the electric theory of civilization, according to which our civilization will be more or less dead in 20 years, so in ~ 2040:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/1122

I believe the climate change is a cover story for peak oil since the climate change in itself is not so imminent as peak oil.

It is precisely the opposite, the global warming agenda is there to artificially restrict the use of so-called fossil fuels. Oil oligarchs like the Rockefellers are 100% behind this agenda, they stand to make more money through carbon trade, and want to further impoverish the middle class (especially the rural and suburban middle class, in favor of blue state urban soycialists who live in small pads - see France's Gilets Jaunes).

The term "fossil fuel" is NLP weaponized verbiage coined by JD Rockefeller in order to subconsciously promote the notion that these fuels are scarce. North America has a century or two's worth in oil reserves, and several centuries worth of coal. Cucks like Trudeau are destroying our economic potential with this globalist politically-motivated war on oil, gas and coal.

I would rather not take it.

1) They surely earn a lot less with the oil price 50$ rather than with 140$. 2) And how much influence do Rockefellers have in OPEC and Russia? 3) They are all dead now, those Rockefellers. David, the last one, died last year.

Coal:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7264
 

Kaligula

Woodpecker
SamuelBRoberts said:
There's not less and less economic activity, though.

But yeah, if you wanna worry yourself into an early grave like the last generation of peak oilers did, go and have a good time.

The psychological problem of coming to terms with peak oil is recognized:

My own sharing of discoveries, analysis and opinions about Peak Oil with friends, family and acquaintances over the past 5 years, has met with a wide disparity of reactions. There is a significant group of people that fall into the category of 'thanks, but I don't want to know anymore about this topic'. They don't often use those exact words, but might reply to an email about Cantarell decline rates with a picture of their son at baseball practice, e.g.

http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/5402

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2592

This was also my experience in Poland several years ago when I tried to spread peak oil awarness. Intelligent people were falling upon economy and "market will provide" (price), less intelligent upon their hobby gardens [will provide]... Generally, total denial. And the really last thing people in Poland want to hear is that the promise of prosperity after 1989 was such a short-lived one. Contrary to mythical talks about the valiant Polish spirit, the Polish in reality became quite infantile. Despite all Polish jokes, we do have mythology in Poland, something like French "la gloire", that we are something special and "we shall overcome". In this way Poles think the communism was a problem they overcame, and they are absolutely not ready for any more problems whatsoever. They love the toys of capitalism like children in the sandbox love theirs.
BTW, as coal lovers we are (Poland has big coal deposits, as well as a bit of gas and oil of our own), we decided to close a lot of mines and currently are importing about 70% of coal we use, from Russia. So short-sighted Poles are.
 

Teutatis

Pelican
Gold Member
Kaligula said:
The most scary part is so called Olduvai Theory, the electric theory of civilization, according to which our civilization will be more or less dead in 20 years, so in ~ 2040:

Quacks always give time predictions that are far enough that when the time comes and nothing happens no one will remember what they said, but still close enough for people to think they will be affected and to start panicking now.
 
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