Japanese people not reproducing

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
This is my beef with the "breed or die" crowd, too.

I'm no environmentalist dickhead, but it's pretty obvious that there are finite resources on this planet, sheer geographical space being the least disputable.

A slowly depleting population is only an issue if you continue on with expanding-population-political-policies, which is part of the reason that so many companies (banks in particular) are desperate for breakneck speed immigration into under-replacement-birth rate Western nations. If you're in the business of manufacturing prams or turning suburban blocks into apartment buildings (or if you're a banker financing all of these things) then increasing the consumer base by all means necessary is top priority, and who gives a shit of that causes the middle class to descend into barbarism. You'll be living in a gated community upstate anyway, and if things get really bad then you'll move to another civilised country like Japan.

Any plan that relies on adopting hardcore r-select strategies "for the continuation of our greatness" is utterly misplaced. The West didn't become great by outbreeding Indians or Chinese or South Americans. It became great by careful planning and acting in unison toward the shared goal of a greater society. Or in other words, by k-select behavioural traits.

I would concede that an ageing population (like the boomers) creates a hostile political landscape for future planning because too many voters aim their power toward propping up the current regime for just long that they can die in comfort before the world falls to shit, but even with continuing low birth rates it seems like we as a civilisation are learning from that lesson and evolving politically to think more of the bigger picture and less about our own greedy selves. The defining question of our nations will be whether the k-selects are willing to throw off the tyranny of the r-selects.

That's the only relevant question in the world right now.
 

Fortis

Crow
Gold Member
Yeah I don't buy any baby bust talk. Populations might decline, but there will always be people within a given population who are going to pop out kids. Whether or not that should be everyone is another debate.

If anything, a decent drop in the population will do wonders for the average Japanese person's financial situation.
 

Bluey

Woodpecker
Leonard D Neubache said:
This is my beef with the "breed or die" crowd, too.

I'm no environmentalist dickhead, but it's pretty obvious that there are finite resources on this planet, sheer geographical space being the least disputable.

A slowly depleting population is only an issue if you continue on with expanding-population-political-policies, which is part of the reason that so many companies (banks in particular) are desperate for breakneck speed immigration into under-replacement-birth rate Western nations. If you're in the business of manufacturing prams or turning suburban blocks into apartment buildings (or if you're a banker financing all of these things) then increasing the consumer base by all means necessary is top priority, and who gives a shit of that causes the middle class to descend into barbarism. You'll be living in a gated community upstate anyway, and if things get really bad then you'll move to another civilised country like Japan.

Any plan that relies on adopting hardcore r-select strategies "for the continuation of our greatness" is utterly misplaced. The West didn't become great by outbreeding Indians or Chinese or South Americans. It became great by careful planning and acting in unison toward the shared goal of a greater society. Or in other words, by k-select behavioural traits.

I would concede that an ageing population (like the boomers) creates a hostile political landscape for future planning because too many voters aim their power toward propping up the current regime for just long that they can die in comfort before the world falls to shit, but even with continuing low birth rates it seems like we as a civilisation are learning from that lesson and evolving politically to think more of the bigger picture and less about our own greedy selves. The defining question of our nations will be whether the k-selects are willing to throw off the tyranny of the r-selects.

That's the only relevant question in the world right now.

I don't see what the problem is either. A quick google tells me there were about 70 million Japanese in 1940, there's about 125 million now.
Recently the Australian Bureau of statistics announced the population of Australia is over half born overseas or born to parents from overseas. Tell me how they're going to assimilate when they outnumber the people they're supposes to be assimilating too. Japan for all it's problems is still Japanese.

(Not discounting the immigrants to Australia who are from england etc. who have a similar cultural background BTW, similar not the same).

EDIT: And Australia just clocked over 25 million citizens too. It's a big country physically, but the really habitable bits are mostly on the coasts.
 

Que enspastic

Ostrich
Gold Member
To the guys saying population decline is not an issue for Japan, tell me, how do the young feel about their prospects? Unfortunately they probably aren't having babies because it's too expensive more than any other reason. The incels have always been there in Japanese culture across the generations.

This issue would be the same in the West (population decline) but for high immigration and the lower classes continuing unabated.

The realistic view is that neither Japan nor the West have sustainable economic / population models and it will only get worse in both, for different reasons and across different time frames.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
What Japan is staring at is either hardcore cultural/economic reform or reality doing it for them in the form of a currency/debt crash.

And at the end Japan will still be Japan. Currency crashes have happened before. They suck but life goes on.

Meanwhile the West, or rather the (((rulers))) of the West have decided that they if the West has to be sacrificed to maintain the current system then so be it.

Arguments about whether it was all engineered to come to this are irrelevant. It is what it is and we can either decide to take the same route as the Japanese or choose instead to cease to exist.
 

CynicalContrarian

Owl
Gold Member
SamuelBRoberts said:
One million people were born in Japan last year, the idea that "they can't do something as simple as reproduce" is silly propaganda.

Here's something I've never quite got an answer for from the "Japan can't breed" folks: What do you think the population of Japan should be, and how exactly are they supposed to maintain it at that level?
Why is a population of 125 million better than a population of 100 million, or 80 million? It's not like they're making more land (At least, not in large quantities. The place is packed enough that they've been making artificial islands just so people have somewhere to live.)

It causes some damage to their global prominence, and it's an issue when attempting to balance their budgets and pay for their senior citizen welfare, but beyond that, who cares? When there were 80 million of them in 1960, nobody was saying "This place is so underpopulated! We'd better start having lots of babies, or our country is doomed!"

Can't recall where it was.
Yet there was a recent article / blog post that detailed historical instances of media derived demographic doom for Japan.
All the way back to WW2 if not WW1...
 
SamuelBRoberts said:
the high said:
I respect Japan. Have been studying the language for over a year and am planning on going for the first time in September but I really couldn't give a fuck less about the declining native population. If the Japanese can't do something as simple as reproduce, then maybe it's their time;they had a good run. A while back some childless 50 year old Japanese woman was introducing me to her cat "Junko" over Skype ; "I was like bitch, where are your kids."

One million people were born in Japan last year, the idea that "they can't do something as simple as reproduce" is silly propaganda.

Here's something I've never quite got an answer for from the "Japan can't breed" folks: What do you think the population of Japan should be, and how exactly are they supposed to maintain it at that level?
Why is a population of 125 million better than a population of 100 million, or 80 million? It's not like they're making more land (At least, not in large quantities. The place is packed enough that they've been making artificial islands just so people have somewhere to live.)

It causes some damage to their global prominence, and it's an issue when attempting to balance their budgets and pay for their senior citizen welfare, but beyond that, who cares? When there were 80 million of them in 1960, nobody was saying "This place is so underpopulated! We'd better start having lots of babies, or our country is doomed!"

Bingo. In 1600 AD, there were roughly 15m people in Japan. Looking back at this number over 400 years later we can see that this did not end up spelling disaster and extinction for the Japanese people. There is no reason to believe that Japan's current projected decline from an unsustainable 130m to a more manageable 80 million by century's end is anything to worry about in the grand scheme of things.

The Japanese are in the enviable position of not being in a breeding war with an imported minority population. Whether Japanese birthrates plunge from 1.4 to 1 or rise to slightly over replacement rate is far less important to Japan's future than what happens to their immigration policy going forward. Japan's current demographic situation, low fertility and all, is far more conducive to its long term survival than an alternative scenario where the Japanese have a healthy 2.3 children per woman but simultaneously import fecund foreigners with third world level birthrates.

Wake me up for Japanese doom-and-gloom when they start being inundated by immigrants because low birth rates on their own just don't cut it.
 

the high

Kingfisher
You guys make good points.

tenor.gif
 

Stallion

Robin
bbgun said:
So who's cleaning their homes, mowing their lawns and picking their fruit? natives or imported workers?

I stand to be corrected by more knowledgeable forum members, but as far as I know, you can't immigrate to Japan in order to do those kind of unqualified jobs.

The visa requirement is that you have university degrees (bachelors at a minimum) and that you go there to do some work related to your degree (engineering, teaching, whatever). In some extreme cases you can substitute education by work experience in a very niche field, but it seems to be rare.

Even a bachelors is sometimes not enough, as they have a highly competitive "point system" where you need to score a minimum of points to be considered. You can find the excel sheet with what gives you points here:
http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/evaluate/index.html

In case you are curious, you can also use this website to see how many points you score yourself.


Does anyone know if there is another way to get a visa that's not the "highly qualified foreigner" or a student visa?
 

Eusebius

Hummingbird
Gold Member
They clean their own homes, don't have lawns and have a shortage of agricultural workers. Good lumber is growing unharvested in the forests. A lot of labor is done by the over 60s. They really don't have any problems (yet) except a lack of care workers for the elderly. And a pervasive sense of melancholy decline outside of the big cities.
 

cascadecombo

Ostrich
Stallion said:
bbgun said:
So who's cleaning their homes, mowing their lawns and picking their fruit? natives or imported workers?

I stand to be corrected by more knowledgeable forum members, but as far as I know, you can't immigrate to Japan in order to do those kind of unqualified jobs.

The visa requirement is that you have university degrees (bachelors at a minimum) and that you go there to do some work related to your degree (engineering, teaching, whatever). In some extreme cases you can substitute education by work experience in a very niche field, but it seems to be rare.

Even a bachelors is sometimes not enough, as they have a highly competitive "point system" where you need to score a minimum of points to be considered. You can find the excel sheet with what gives you points here:
http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/evaluate/index.html

In case you are curious, you can also use this website to see how many points you score yourself.


Does anyone know if there is another way to get a visa that's not the "highly qualified foreigner" or a student visa?

Not entirely true at all, If you have balls and ambition I know several who went over and got visas after the fact, I helped one guy out with that actually. He only had a high school diploma and maybe a year or two of college, nothing worth writing about on paper.

However it's risky and there is the possibility you'll be sent out if you fail .

There are a number of other ways too, but I have personal experience with those so I wanted to shed some light.
 
The fact that the demographic situation there points towards aging is not as dire as some may point out. It's only as serious as one considers having the State profiting from the serfs and their taxes and children. I believe eventually the situation might reverse and the population might start increasing again, perhaps in 50-60-70 years or something like that. But seriously, Japan is already over populated as it is. It's sort of the size of California perhaps? Who has what? 20 million people? Japan has 127 million people in a relatively small island for that sort of population. Eventually this will increase their life quality I'm sure. What they need is to have a different sort of economic practices because a lot of what they do is outdated and not innovative/competitive anymore.
 

Stallion

Robin
cascadecombo said:
Stallion said:
bbgun said:
So who's cleaning their homes, mowing their lawns and picking their fruit? natives or imported workers?

I stand to be corrected by more knowledgeable forum members, but as far as I know, you can't immigrate to Japan in order to do those kind of unqualified jobs.

The visa requirement is that you have university degrees (bachelors at a minimum) and that you go there to do some work related to your degree (engineering, teaching, whatever). In some extreme cases you can substitute education by work experience in a very niche field, but it seems to be rare.

Even a bachelors is sometimes not enough, as they have a highly competitive "point system" where you need to score a minimum of points to be considered. You can find the excel sheet with what gives you points here:
http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/evaluate/index.html

In case you are curious, you can also use this website to see how many points you score yourself.


Does anyone know if there is another way to get a visa that's not the "highly qualified foreigner" or a student visa?

Not entirely true at all, If you have balls and ambition I know several who went over and got visas after the fact, I helped one guy out with that actually. He only had a high school diploma and maybe a year or two of college, nothing worth writing about on paper.

However it's risky and there is the possibility you'll be sent out if you fail .

There are a number of other ways too, but I have personal experience with those so I wanted to shed some light.

Good to know. The few cases that I personally know got there with their degree. I also know a couple of people who got refused despite being very smart guys. I should hang out with more ambitious people I guess!

I used to think it would be cool to try Japan for a few years, but the more I speak with people who moved there, the more I think I wouldn't stand it.
 

Sumanguru

Kingfisher
Also, over the last few years, they've been creating visas for positions like nurses (which is how the Thai and Filipino women get in). Also, Chinese are the largest ethnic group of foreign students in Japan, I wonder how many of them manage to get jobs right out of college and flip that into some kind of permanent residency?
 
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