Arestovich is way beyond machiavellism, he is an outright sociopath who is literally sacrificing Ukraine and its people for his own tribal goals. Machiavelli was a realist, not a nihilistic psychopath, nor a raging degenerate queen like Oleksy here...
His timing acumen is hardly commendable, the only reason he predicted a war with Russia 3 years ago is that he was hell bent on starting it, as were the Nulands and her ilk who are running the show in the US and vassal states.
That's exactly what I am talking about. Arestovich knew better what the Kremlin was going to do than the Kremlin itself- by a margin of several years. You'd assume the bright Kremlin men have people and means in a country like Ukraine to keep tabs on things, but no. It hasn't been the only lapse in intel and strategic planning, and that's quite the understatement. One thing is for sure, Arestovich and ilk play to win, whatever it takes. Playing dirty is part of that game.
Meanwhile Putin and cadre back at the usual dimwitry. The tiger cannot change its stripes. Putin and cadre can't change how they lead, govern and operate fundamentally - it's just who they're. The West and people like Arestovich know this, and it continue to exploit it beyond belief. It's gotten to the point where people ask, when will Russians learn? Where is the bottom? What is the bottom anyway? If the everyday layman can see it, you know it stinks. There is no 9D chess to this, even though the simpletons will continue pretending there is.
Not a single Ukrainian elite of worth pronounced dead as a result of a two months+ long 'special operation'. It's not like these people are really hard to get to or tracked by a competent or semi-competent intelligence service in wartime. You want real progress, you start there, and not in a half-assed way either. After all, Russia is AT WAR with these people - and it's most of all an elite war. Putin and cadre's modus operandi is full of holes and consequently those holes are getting exploited to the maximum, as it should. And the cost of those vulnerabilities is already gigantic in terms of human and materiel losses. What's worse, it's threatening the degree of success of the operation itself (most important thing of all).
What does that, in combination with the refusal to declare war, mean? It means that even before the first tank rolled over the border bright Kremlin men had already decided that they would settle for a negotiated agreement. After a shaky first week Arestovich and ilk knew damned well were they stood, what the Kremlin's modus operandi was and how they themselves would fit into that equation. Obviously nobody sees it as anything but a war but whose is going to tell Putin and cadre? They, in their infinite hubris and genius, decided for political appearances on the international stage that it would be better to call it a special operation, so as to avoid it being labeled a war of conquest and an invasion. Reality is that it's an invasion with responsibility to protect. It wouldn't have been one in 2014 if they'd kept Yanukovich in power using hard power and not ceding legitimacy to a blatant coup but that event has been analyzed ad infinitum in the original Ukraine Conflict Lounge Thread hence no broken records.
The Ukrainians have got Russia exactly where they want them, on their calculus as the Russians have showed their hand already and are led by hard-headed donkeys that never evaluate political strategies mid-operation (ie. declaration of war/expanding the military scope/change of tactics). Hence it would be silly to expect the opposite now. Same for the West. To them all of Ukraine and its elites are expendable. So the more protracted the conflict, the better. The West will only settle if Russia really means business and is about to steamroll Ukraine in a horrible fashion. Only then will the West try to salvage anything to keep a footprint in Ukraine for later use. Right now that scenario is lightyears away - even those sky-high on their daily dose of Kremlin Intel Slava propaganda dope are probably aware of that. That's what the ultimate fall back plan to Lvov and the Polish feint is all about. Mistake number 1 is deciding to invade with the ultimate goal of a negotiated solution. No, you never let your enemy figure out your strategy. You invade with the public goal and intent of taking out every single enemy of the Russian state within Ukraine, no exceptions, top Ukrainian leadership and elites included. Once your true enemy (the elite, not the rank and file soldiers), once they feel the horror and see their peers fall - questioning whether they'll be next, only then will it be they who will beg you to negotiate to save their hide. Pure dimwitry.
The delusion of the 'need' of not 'angering' these elite with the threat of physical demise in order to have someone to sign away and 'legitimize' the land grab is causing all sorts of chaos and headaches. Quite frankly it is so far removed from the needed psychological preparedness that it is borderline treasonous. Hence whomever is advising to stay firm on that calculus is crazy and should be, in all honesty, shot. This crazy idea assumes that eventually the Ukrainians will have to 'give in' due to the obvious facts on the ground. Meanwhile the UFA is holding its own remarkably well with the elite's calculus bending to scorched earth on what most likely will be lost territory anyway so why give in and not cause maximum pain for the enemy if you're more than probable to lose it anyway. Not to mention that they all know their hides are well covered by the West as long as they stay within the script.
It's not a problem of failing, learning and then re-applying new knowledge onto reality, it's a problem of personality, lack of accountability within the highest echelons of power and being rusted into long established patterns. Hence guys like Arestovich are always one step ahead. You don't wage war with a peace council. That decision is obviously proving in many aspects of this conflict to be a detriment to the Russian people and state. It also speaks of the weakness of the political structure of the Russian state, with concentration of power at the very top. Lavrov (or worse, Medinsky) will be back at the negotiations the second the Ukrainians ask for one by command of the West. You can take that to the bank, 500% guaranteed returns. It's just who they are. They have been figured out long, long ago.
There's blood in the water, the West has smelled weakness. It's game on, thing's are about to get real(er). At this point one simply cannot fundamentally trust the Russian leadership not to shoot itself in the leg (again) in the hope of a 'ceasefire' with the West as it will only be a breather in the Ukrainian theater with the staged prepped for hybrid and kinetic war elsewhere. The Kremlin might try to have their 'mission accomplished' moment but we all know make-believe reality is not real.
As for the silly insults aimed at Arestovich, at the end of the day all the silly personal insults are just that, silly personal insults to cope with reality.
