Good comment on Dreizen's blog:
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Troilus
May 5, 2022 at 10:45 pm
If I’m not mistaken, there’s an interview circulating of Arestovich – as close as you get to the brains of the Kiev operation – speculating in 2019 that there would be a war in 2022, 2024 and 2026. Now why would there be more than one? He is acknowledging that Ukraine cannot outright win an initial war with Russia. But, he hopes, that at some point the fact of war with Russia would drag NATO in. In other words, he accepts the loss of a great many Ukrainians in exchange for NATO membership and direct NATO war with Russia in Ukraine.
This is part of the reason why they don’t seem to mind sending untrained troops to the front to get chewed up by Russian artillery. What they have left of trained and loyal men they are re-training and consolidating in the west with western arms in the hopes of a successful counter attack on exhausted Russian forces. If that fails, they’re likely banking on actual NATO intervention. Notice they care very much about getting their Azovs out of Mariupol, but not about the thousands of conscripts – essentially civilians dragooned into service – getting annihilated in Donbass.
They hope to rebuild their nation on the basis of loyal Azovites, not regular Ukrainians. My sense is that this regime considers Ukraine as it is to be insufficiently “Ukrainian,” that is insufficiently made up of the kinds of people they want – hence the 100k+ far-right mercenaries brought in to swell the ranks of Azov. So, they’re using this war to cull the territory and build a new nation. Manpower, then, is not really a concern, unless it upsets the timetable.
If this seems not too dissimilar for what the left hopes for the United States, than you begin to understand why elements within our government enthusiastically support Azov. Spiritually Azov and the left are very similar. Cf: https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV Enthusiastic supporter of an Azov off-shoot, Kraken, on the ground in Kharkov. And actively trying to get Americans with the wrong politics killed. And yes beholden to the most aggressive current leftist ideologies.
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This commenter is pretty close to the truth, but perhaps is missing the tribal aspect, which would provide a deeper understanding on the nature of the new nation that Arestovich, Nuland, Kolomoisky, Blinken, Zelensky and co want to build in Ukraine...
Also Arestovich wants to use Ukrainian cannon fodder to burn any cultural bridges between Ukrainians and Russia, with every 45 year old bus driver or office manager conscript bombed to bits by Russian artillery in the Donbass, you will have a friends and family cluster that are turned into Russia haters. Though this calculus hasn't worked in Chechnya, where the relationship with Russia has turned 180 degrees after a far more fierce war and intense bombing. The evil plans of the cabal in charge of Ukraine and NATO policy won't necessarily materialize. In fact Putin has already foiled their plans in Syria.
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May 5, 2022 at 10:45 pm
If I’m not mistaken, there’s an interview circulating of Arestovich – as close as you get to the brains of the Kiev operation – speculating in 2019 that there would be a war in 2022, 2024 and 2026. Now why would there be more than one? He is acknowledging that Ukraine cannot outright win an initial war with Russia. But, he hopes, that at some point the fact of war with Russia would drag NATO in. In other words, he accepts the loss of a great many Ukrainians in exchange for NATO membership and direct NATO war with Russia in Ukraine.
This is part of the reason why they don’t seem to mind sending untrained troops to the front to get chewed up by Russian artillery. What they have left of trained and loyal men they are re-training and consolidating in the west with western arms in the hopes of a successful counter attack on exhausted Russian forces. If that fails, they’re likely banking on actual NATO intervention. Notice they care very much about getting their Azovs out of Mariupol, but not about the thousands of conscripts – essentially civilians dragooned into service – getting annihilated in Donbass.
They hope to rebuild their nation on the basis of loyal Azovites, not regular Ukrainians. My sense is that this regime considers Ukraine as it is to be insufficiently “Ukrainian,” that is insufficiently made up of the kinds of people they want – hence the 100k+ far-right mercenaries brought in to swell the ranks of Azov. So, they’re using this war to cull the territory and build a new nation. Manpower, then, is not really a concern, unless it upsets the timetable.
If this seems not too dissimilar for what the left hopes for the United States, than you begin to understand why elements within our government enthusiastically support Azov. Spiritually Azov and the left are very similar. Cf: https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV Enthusiastic supporter of an Azov off-shoot, Kraken, on the ground in Kharkov. And actively trying to get Americans with the wrong politics killed. And yes beholden to the most aggressive current leftist ideologies.
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Also Arestovich wants to use Ukrainian cannon fodder to burn any cultural bridges between Ukrainians and Russia, with every 45 year old bus driver or office manager conscript bombed to bits by Russian artillery in the Donbass, you will have a friends and family cluster that are turned into Russia haters. Though this calculus hasn't worked in Chechnya, where the relationship with Russia has turned 180 degrees after a far more fierce war and intense bombing. The evil plans of the cabal in charge of Ukraine and NATO policy won't necessarily materialize. In fact Putin has already foiled their plans in Syria.
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