Lounge of Russian-Ukrainian War

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Poland might be coveting western Ukraine, potentially looking to annex Lviv. Ukraine being in a state of complete disarray and its borders being redrawn, Polish nationalists could see a unique opportunity to retake western Ukraine, which used to be part of Poland.



This would put a wrench on NATO and EU cohesion.

Hungary has similar aims on southwestern Ukraine, where the local Rusyn population feels closer to Hungary and would benefit from being in a richer, more stable country...
 

2 Right Hands

Woodpecker
Catholic
Poland might be coveting western Ukraine, potentially looking to annex Lviv. Ukraine being in a state of complete disarray and its borders being redrawn, Polish nationalists could see a unique opportunity to retake western Ukraine, which used to be part of Poland.



This would put a wrench on NATO and EU cohesion.

Hungary has similar aims on southwestern Ukraine, where the local Rusyn population feels closer to Hungary and would benefit from being in a richer, more stable country...

I am sorry but this sounds like a complete fantasy at this point and most likely just a Russian propaganda (it makes sense to spread such news from the Russian perspective).
First of all, Polish nationalists have no say in such matters as the current government isn't nationalist - they're just America/Israel loving neo-cons who will do exactly what NATO tells them. It would be a political suicide for the ruling party to make such a move.
Secondly, there are hardly any Poles left in the Western Ukraine which is a very different situation compared to the Ukrainian regions bordering with Hungary.
And thirdly, Polish army would get destroyed by the battle-hardened Ukrainians especially now when Poland gave away quite a lot of their weaponry to... Ukraine.
 

911

Peacock
Catholic
Gold Member
Ukraine is not going to have much of an army left by the end of the year, their first and second lines are getting decimated in the Donbass cauldron at a rate of >500/day. They're going to throw their last remaining lines into the looming battles for Odessa, Karkhov and Dnipro. By the end of the year, Ukraine will be practically exhausted and its economy, which was already the worst in Europe before the war, is going to be in complete shambles.

The key aspect here is whether Transcarpathia is going to split and join Hungary, that could set a precedent.
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox

Interview with Senator Richard Black of Virginia. As background, he is a retired military officer, having served in VietNam both as a Marine foot soldier and also as a helicopter pilot. He is against an escalation in Ukraine, is aware of the duplicity, is sober in his analysis of Putin. Black is dead-set against any US involvement and considers the situation insanely dangerous.

At 8 minutes he summarizes the last 30 years, including the 2014-2021 runup and the final months before the war. NATO is only maintained because of the Russia-always-as-enemy myth. He is blunt about the corrupt 2014 Maidan, implicating US and Brit intelligence. Since 2014, the West has been openly training Ukrainians and priming them for a war with Russia. Russia's December 2021 petition for a peace proposal was entirely dismissed by NATO, as instructed by the US. By January 2022, 250k Ukraine forces had massed on the Donbass, preparing for an assault into Donbass. The Ukrainians fired 2,000 artillery missions in the runup to their planned offensive. Putin was forced to commit to battle with 190k troops versus 250k Ukrainians already mobilized.

Edit - I'd like to see more documentation about this January 2022 mobilization of 250k Ukraine troops. We are hearing more about it, but I haven't seen the evidence/first hand reporting.

At 21:00, there's a decent analysis of how the current situation is a mirror-view of the Cuban missile crisis.

At 28:00, the nuclear risk and irresponsible nature of American behavior and commentary is discussed. American officials are almost sleep-walking to WW3, declaring fealty to Ukraine. Retired GEN Breedlove has even advocated for US troops and tanks to enter Ukraine to the west bank of the Dnieper. Breedlove is reportedly a confidant of Biden administration.

At 35 minutes, he explains how after the US war in Vietnam (about 60k US deaths), we learned that it is better to find proxies to do the dying. First example of this was Afghanistan, with as many as 300k Taliban jihadis being financed by USG in order to force pain on Russia. Ukraine is our current proxy.

At 41 minutes, they link the war to economic issues, Davos crowd, and Great Reset. Breaking Russia is a great way to demonstrate to the World that even great nations are subject to destruction and economic re-assembly.

49:50 - Black explains how Russia is a massive exporter of key commodities. Cutting them off causes problems and leaves more money chasing the fewer resources that are in the mix.

At 53:30 - Moskva sinking incident and Russian General killings, with much US help

Putin is taken aback by such extreme actions, has had great restraint, but he is not Mr. Spock. He's a person, with emotions, and patriotic. Some day he may crack. The West sees Russia as a big resource target, ready for another 90s style shock-therapy robbery process. Putin knows it, and won't let it happen on his watch.

1:00:01 - claims there are 50 French and 20 Brits still at Azovstal

Zelensky briefly had said that he was interested in discussing peace with Russia, but his western masters got to him and told him to stop such discussion. War with Russia is the order of the day.
 

Pointy Elbows

Kingfisher
Orthodox

Interview with Senator Richard Black of Virginia. As background, he is a retired military officer, having served in VietNam both as a Marine foot soldier and also as a helicopter pilot. He is against an escalation in Ukraine, is aware of the duplicity, is sober in his analysis of Putin. Black is dead-set against any US involvement and considers the situation insanely dangerous.

At 8 minutes he summarizes the last 30 years, including the 2014-2021 runup and the final months before the war. NATO is only maintained because of the Russia-always-as-enemy myth. He is blunt about the corrupt 2014 Maidan, implicating US and Brit intelligence. Since 2014, the West has been openly training Ukrainians and priming them for a war with Russia. Russia's December 2021 petition for a peace proposal was entirely dismissed by NATO, as instructed by the US. By January 2022, 250k Ukraine forces had massed on the Donbass, preparing for an assault into Donbass. The Ukrainians fired 2,000 artillery missions in the runup to their planned offensive. Putin was forced to commit to battle with 190k troops versus 250k Ukrainians already mobilized.

Edit - I'd like to see more documentation about this January 2022 mobilization of 250k Ukraine troops. We are hearing more about it, but I haven't seen the evidence/first hand reporting.

At 21:00, there's a decent analysis of how the current situation is a mirror-view of the Cuban missile crisis.

At 28:00, the nuclear risk and irresponsible nature of American behavior and commentary is discussed. American officials are almost sleep-walking to WW3, declaring fealty to Ukraine. Retired GEN Breedlove has even advocated for US troops and tanks to enter Ukraine to the west bank of the Dnieper. Breedlove is reportedly a confidant of Biden administration.

At 35 minutes, he explains how after the US war in Vietnam (about 60k US deaths), we learned that it is better to find proxies to do the dying. First example of this was Afghanistan, with as many as 300k Taliban jihadis being financed by USG in order to force pain on Russia. Ukraine is our current proxy.

At 41 minutes, they link the war to economic issues, Davos crowd, and Great Reset. Breaking Russia is a great way to demonstrate to the World that even great nations are subject to destruction and economic re-assembly.

49:50 - Black explains how Russia is a massive exporter of key commodities. Cutting them off causes problems and leaves more money chasing the fewer resources that are in the mix.

At 53:30 - Moskva sinking incident and Russian General killings, with much US help

Putin is taken aback by such extreme actions, has had great restraint, but he is not Mr. Spock. He's a person, with emotions, and patriotic. Some day he may crack. The West sees Russia as a big resource target, ready for another 90s style shock-therapy robbery process. Putin knows it, and won't let it happen on his watch.

1:00:01 - claims there are 50 French and 20 Brits still at Azovstal

Zelensky briefly had said that he was interested in discussing peace with Russia, but his western masters got to him and told him to stop such discussion. War with Russia is the order of the day.
 

2 Right Hands

Woodpecker
Catholic
Ukraine is not going to have much of an army left by the end of the year, their first and second lines are getting decimated in the Donbass cauldron at a rate of >500/day. They're going to throw their last remaining lines into the looming battles for Odessa, Karkhov and Dnipro. By the end of the year, Ukraine will be practically exhausted and its economy, which was already the worst in Europe before the war, is going to be in complete shambles.

The key aspect here is whether Transcarpathia is going to split and join Hungary, that could set a precedent.
But by the end of the year Poland will have no weapons and its economy will be shattered too (already is!). Polish lapdog ruling class keeps saying Ukrainians fight this war for us too so we must give them everything we've got.
If anything, Poland and Ukraine will get artificially merged into one bizarre blob ruled by American-Jewish conglomerate, it'll be today's Ukraine on steroids.
Trust me, Polish government isn't independent and won't do anything without the green light from the NATO/EU apparatchiks.
 

TruckDriver9

Woodpecker
Edit - I'd like to see more documentation about this January 2022 mobilization of 250k Ukraine troops. We are hearing more about it, but I haven't seen the evidence/first hand reporting.
From wikipedia /of all places/

"Following hostilities with Russia in 2014, Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants), not counting additional forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service. In 2021 the size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 246,445 (195,626 military personnel), makes it the second largest in the region after the Russian Armed Forces."


And OSCE map of artillery "incidents" in the Donbass in January 2022

DonbassShelling012022.jpeg
 

Thomas More

Crow
Protestant
From wikipedia /of all places/

"Following hostilities with Russia in 2014, Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants), not counting additional forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service. In 2021 the size of Ukraine's armed forces, which consists of 246,445 (195,626 military personnel), makes it the second largest in the region after the Russian Armed Forces."


And OSCE map of artillery "incidents" in the Donbass in January 2022

View attachment 41475
I have heard the idea of the tooth to tail ratio, where the tooth represents soldiers able to fight, and the tail represents every form of non-fighter, from logistics to healthcare, administration, etc. I assume that if Ukraine's military is 246K, then the number of soldiers in the field would be much lower.

By contrast, I have seen estimates that Russia has 190K soldiers assigned to the conflict, but I suspect they have a higher ratio of tooth to tail. I would think Russia's tail would include the rest of their military, and the 190K is more oriented to actual warfighting.

Does anyone know the truth of this?
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I don't think it's a good idea to pull the ring from a grenade and try to force it inside a ceramic cup to create a makeshift explosive to be dropped from a drone. As an English proverb says, "There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip." If the soldier fumbles the cup or drops it while trying to get
the grenade inside the cup, he could blow himself up and any other soldiers nearby.

You'd think, but that kind of thing is an "occupational hazard" of insurgency and this example is far from the least dangerous such example. Another one I've heard of is using an ice-block on a mortar tube so that when the ice melts and the mortar fires you can be long gone.
 

Papaya

Peacock
Gold Member
vg7yy1z4syy81.jpg

:)
 

ed pluribus unum

Ostrich
Protestant
I don't think it's a good idea to pull the ring from a grenade and try to force it inside a ceramic cup to create a makeshift explosive to be dropped from a drone. As an English proverb says, "There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip." If the soldier fumbles the cup or drops it while trying to get
the grenade inside the cup, he could blow himself up and any other soldiers nearby.
I read about how in Vietnam, US scout helicopter pilots would set the fuse delay on grenades to zero, slide it into a glass mason jar and pull the pin, then fill the jar with gasoline. This way they had some incendiary devices at hand. The practice was discouraged when the higher-ups rightly said that it was an accident in waiting, having a box of these jars in the cockpit of the helo.
 
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