Lounge of Russian-Ukrainian War

budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member
ZeroHedge article continue...

The Associated Press has meanwhile reported of ongoing anti-war protests popping up in various locales across the country, particularly in large cities:

As protest calls circulated online, the Moscow prosecutor's office warned that organizing or participating in such actions could lead to up to 15 years in prison. Authorities issued similar warnings ahead of other protests recently. Wednesday's were the first nationwide anti-war protests since the fighting began in late February.

The state communication watchdog Roskomnadzor also warned media that access to their websites would be blocked for transmitting "false information" about the mobilization. It was unclear exactly what that meant.


Protests have been filmed in and around Moscow and St. Petersburg Wednesday night into Thursday, with hundreds of arrests reported...


One activist group was cited in The Guardian as saying of Putin's Wednesday speech and military order related to Ukraine mobilization, "It’s not a partial mobilization, it’s a 100% mobilization."

Men boarding buses in the Belgorod region after being handed their orders...
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
I don't think the Russian people's heart is in this war. Ukraine however is, they see themselves fighting for their home. The west baited Putin into war and he fell for it. i don't think anyone realized how ill prepared for war the Russian army really was. I for one am quite stunned. The fact that Russia is having such trouble in Ukraine shows that NATO expansion is not needed. To a large degree, NATO is just a slush fund for the wealthy and connected. In another decade or so, Russian and Ukraine children won't know what gender they are. Sad...
I suppose on this side we will only see with time.

Eta:

You very well may be right...part of me things this is true... But the other side is that we really don't know what strategy Russia has.

There have been errors tactically as well as calculated risk.

The Truth lies somewhere between pervert Scott Ridder on oneside and liberal stooges decrying " Russia is gonna fall any day now " folks who don't have any idea what they are talking about...

I do think you're correct that for the Ukranians they are a serious military and they are NATOs best army outside of the US.... So if Russia continues to atrite them... That's a bad sign for NATO.
 
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budoslavic

Eagle
Orthodox
Gold Member

DanielH

Ostrich
Moderator
Orthodox
Russian authorities really should be clamping down on social media, both foreign and domestic. There is no virtue to “free speech” contrary to what you've been told, and letting western social media and news into your country is poisoning the well.

When General Pyotr Wrangel was in charge of the last of the White Army fighting against the soviets, he told the left wing, and often Jewish newspapers that they had a few options which boiled down to - stop writing negative things about the White Army, or face a military tribunal.

Russia in general should be better at propaganda. There is so much to choose from, from rampant racial conflict here, to LGBT teachers terrorizing and molesting students, it blows my mind Russia is not capitalizing on this. What are you fighting for? To not be that! Literally just play that lesbian US Army recruiting ad in your country.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
Russian authorities really should be clamping down on social media, both foreign and domestic. There is no virtue to “free speech” contrary to what you've been told, and letting western social media and news into your country is poisoning the well.

When General Pyotr Wrangel was in charge of the last of the White Army fighting against the soviets, he told the left wing, and often Jewish newspapers that they had a few options which boiled down to - stop writing negative things about the White Army, or face a military tribunal.

Russia in general should be better at propaganda. There is so much to choose from, from rampant racial conflict here, to LGBT teachers terrorizing and molesting students, it blows my mind Russia is not capitalizing on this. What are you fighting for? To not be that! Literally just play that lesbian US Army recruiting ad in your country.
Fair but a majority of people hear Russia and just refuse to let anything in.

Theyre never going to win the propoganda war with westerners... And obviously not with most former Soviet states as evidenced by Georgia and Ukraniane.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
I suppose on this side we will only see with time.

Eta:

You very well may be right...part of me things this is true... But the other side is that we really don't know what strategy Russia has.

There have been errors tactically as well as calculated risk.

The Truth lies somewhere between pervert Scott Ridder on oneside and liberal stooges decrying " Russia is gonna fall any day now " folks who don't have any idea what they are talking about...

I do think you're correct that for the Ukranians they are a serious military and they are NATOs best army outside of the US.... So if Russia continues to atrite them... That's a bad sign for NATO.

I’d argue they might be the best military period in some ways.

We both know that most of those allied nations tended towards being useless and would mostly FOB camp.


The US however…has some advantages. The biggest one is that a US training graduate typically has a significantly better understanding of fire team tactics and marksmanship than do China and USSR, let alone the various dictatorship armies. The weakness is that the US heavily crutches on GPS technology and complete air superiority to perform even basic company level maneuvers. Neither of those would be safe assets. Ukraine doesn’t seem to have that same over reliance on every piece of equipment being “smart”.
 

TheosisSeeker

Woodpecker
Orthodox Catechumen
What's interesting is the different in generation opinions. My friends that I know are mostly millennial (none of them Liberal or West-loving btw, mostly unvaxxed even)...yet they almost all said their parents are super invested in the war and support the mobilization.
I think now I understand why Putin resisted this order for such a long time...he probably knew the mood in his own country. Looks like this had to happen now then.

This is not surprising in the least. As a millenial myself, most I encounter don't understand the existential crisis occurring in the world. You can label it East vs. West, conservatism vs. liberalism or whatever, but as long as the millenials can continue their lifestyle of ig and comfort they a many are fine with seeing society go down the drain. They tend to lack foresight.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
@Easy_C agreed regarding the Ukranians forces.. from what I can see, they've been trained well in small unit tactics plus synthesis of soviet military docrine....

Though I'd throw out the caveat that previous NATO forces on GWOT were not fighting in their own country, and didn't get allllllll that billions of aid and equipment constantly supplied to the degree the Ukranians are.

From my perspective in the Marine Corps:

I think the tech just allows a quicker decision cycle. If it's taken away, I still think American forces, due to the nature of disagregaded ops,are superior and would adjust to manual/lower tech operations over time..... But that things would be slower.

The US mils greatest strength lies in Intel collection and logistics. I think that's the one area when planning, we do better than anyone else as a whole.

But i could be off, I've been out for about 4 years now and stuff could have drastically changed...
 

Roosh

Cardinal
Orthodox
In all the videos of the mobilization, I can't help but notice how normal the men are: no green hair, no gays, no transgenders, no weirdness. They look like normal men who are going to serve their duty, however reluctant. If this was a sports match, I would bet on Russia for this fact alone, even if I didn't know who the opposing team was, but I'm sure NATO has a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeve. This won't be fun to watch.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
They definitely don't have the woes and lamentations we do with regard to fat, tranny applicants (or lack there of) for servicemen.

The missing link which I think many of us on here can only speculate on is the morale element. Those videos of reluctant soldiers may change after training camp and retrofitting.

I would expect the long winter to provide both sides a time to retrofit and regroup while fighting stalls.

This means more newly mobilized UKR reservists from western Ukraine also... So I'm not convinced throwing 200k more soldiers in and of itself is enough. There will have to be more than. Just bodies being thrown at the problem.

I'm sure the Russian force commanders are factoring these considerations in and have mapped out multiple courses of action here and have strategic targeting and ideas on both the operational and strategical level in a multiphasic approach.

I think more escalation is inevitable.
 

Uprising

Sparrow
Trad Catholic
On ideological societies: Russia isn’t an ideological society, like the Soviet Union was, and Putin has always been a pragmatist and realist, not an ideologue. Compare Russia to North Korea, or even to China, where every single citizen has been trained since they were born to love Communism and to hate the US. It’s much easier to mobilize a population like North Korea for war than Russia. It’s why I suggested that Putin do something before the initial invasion to identify, exaggerate, and freeze the enemy. What's interesting is there's plenty of "ammo" for the short, homosexual Jew Zelenksyy, but none of that was used before the initial invasion.

On Jewish subversion: The Jews are experts at propaganda and psychological manipulation. They have honed their techniques for decades in Hollywood. Part of me believes that the Jews had aligned Trump with Putin for the past 4 years not only to slander Trump, but also to attack Putin. When the average thumb-sucker in the west thinks of Putin, they automatically associate Trump, Nazism, white supremacy, Hitler, tyranny, and corruption. As soon as Putin invaded, they had a narrative and enemy "primed" in their soft, squishy minds. The Jews could easily portray Zelenskyy as one of their comic book superheroes, who was to defeat the fascist enemy. This portrayal, so deeply engrained over the past 4 years of relentless propaganda, is why Putin's claims that he was fighting Neo-Nazis fell so flat.

On Putin's path: Putin really has only one possible path now. He must move all mobilized forces into the Donbas region immediately following the referendums, declare victory in his special military operation, and inform the west in no uncertain terms that any attacks at the Donbas region is an attack on Russian sovereignty. If the west does attack the Donbas region, he must see it as a declaration of war and as a violation of his red line. He must immediately mobilize all his AFRF, and prepare for nuclear war. At such a point, we will pray, and we will see see how many poor souls the Jews will send into the fire.

Note on 2014: Putin had the opportunity to take Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the Donbas regions in 2014 following their referendum, but refused to recognize them. It was not until after the invasion on February 21, 2022 that Moscow official recognized these results. One wonders where we would be if Putin recognized the referendums in 2014 and moved his military forces into the regions at that point.

A final note on the fall of Kiev: If one has been following western propaganda like I have, immeadily following the initial invasion of Ukraine, the west had already accepted that Kiev was going to fall. They were already pushing the idea that the real war was going to be against the "insurgency" of the Ukrainians. Here's an article from CNBC about it on March 4, 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-is-baffling-military-analysts.html:

Despite a resistance that has won hearts and minds around the world, the bigger picture does not look good for Ukraine, one analyst noted, and Ukraine needs more Western help if it is to stop Russia’s slow but destructive and demoralizing advance.

“While the advancement of Russian forces appears to be slow, costly, and challenging, the overall trend is still unfavorable for Ukraine,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo Intelligence, said in an emailed note Thursday.

“Unless the West significantly steps up its military support or if there are mass defections/disobedience in the Russian armed forces, the latter holds more chances to prevail in the longer term, given its considerable advantages in multiple domains.”

“Control of the capital Kyiv and the survival of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration are crucial for the morale and defensive positions of the Ukrainian side. And even if Russia’s military advancement stalls, Putin could use increasingly powerful weapons systems or even nuclear threats to force Kyiv to capitulate,” he noted.

Looking further ahead, analysts agree that even if Russia “wins” in Ukraine, that will be the easy part, and holding the country — whose population predominantly has a pro-Western attitude and will be even more anti-Russian after the invasion — will be much harder.

“The extremely strong resistance from the Ukrainian army and local population reaffirms expectations that long-term occupation of large parts of the Ukrainian territory would be extremely challenging,” Tursa said, noting that any new administration installed in Kyiv (as many analysts believe is part of Russia’s plan) “would lack legitimacy and struggle to remain in control.”
And futher:
Other analysts agree. Tim Dowse, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Wednesday on Twitter that “despite all the visible failings, realistically it is hard to see how Russia will not eventually prevail militarily in Ukraine. The imbalance of forces is simply too great.′

“How will Russia — indefinitely — occupy, control and administer a very large country of 40m [million] overwhelmingly hostile people, with a ruined economy, a need for major reconstruction of damaged infrastructure and probably a serious humanitarian crisis?,” he said.

Even if Russia was able to find Ukrainians willing to constitute a new administration, Dowse questioned whether civil servants, the police and other public officials would be willing to take orders from such people. He concluded, “Won’t military victory be the start, not the end, of Putin’s problems?”

I have no doubt that if Putin had properly mobilized his entire forces for the initial invasion, Kiev would have fell (of course, only the historians will tell us how close he was to the gates of the Verhhovna Rada. . .).
 

TCOCBR18

Sparrow
Orthodox
They definitely don't have the woes and lamentations we do with regard to fat, tranny applicants (or lack there of) for servicemen.

The missing link which I think many of us on here can only speculate on is the morale element. Those videos of reluctant soldiers may change after training camp and retrofitting.

I would expect the long winter to provide both sides a time to retrofit and regroup while fighting stalls.

This means more newly mobilized UKR reservists from western Ukraine also... So I'm not convinced throwing 200k more soldiers in and of itself is enough. There will have to be more than. Just bodies being thrown at the problem.

I'm sure the Russian force commanders are factoring these considerations in and have mapped out multiple courses of action here and have strategic targeting and ideas on both the operational and strategical level in a multiphasic approach.

I think more escalation is inevitable.
The proposed numbers for this wave of mobilization are 300,000. That will make an enormous difference for Russian forces on the frontlines when they are eventually ready to be deployed, as up to this point the Russians have demonstrated in most cases (with some exceptions) a qualitative superiority over the Ukrainians but are unable to manage the entire massive war zone with the forces they had, which numbered roughly 200,000, while the Ukrainians mobilized vastly more men. Adding 300,000 men will make a huge difference in their ability to carry out military operations. But you are right I think that ultimately it won't be enough; after all, the Ukrainians are just going to keep drafting more and more and keep getting more and more from the West. However, I noticed today Russian telegram sources talking about how this was the first mobilization wave in Russia, implying there could still be a lot more coming. In fact, I saw one source say the second wave will start immediately after annexation, but who knows.
 

paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
I'm starting to get worried as a Western European.

Mobilisation of Russian troops means further escalation and possible expansion beyond the isolated region in the Ukraine.

Meanwhile the politicians here are pushing the same propaganda: genocide, mass graves, humanitarian disaster, refugees, executions and Russian expansionism.

There is no proper debate. Some people in parliament ask if this is our national interest? Is peace an option?

These people are scorned and laughed at.

The propagandists have been able to create another mass psychosis. In which it is impossible to question the narrative. People that try to nuance the position, or have a different position are met with collective rejection or condemnation.

As it is impossible to question corona. As it is impossible to question climate change. As it is impossible to question the excessive money printing. As it is impossible to question institutional racism. As it is impossible to question gender discrimination. As it is impossible to question the holocaust.

Same style. Same build up. Same narrative structure.

No public dissent is allowed. If you do it though, you're banned from main stream media and public function.

Talk shows today are people talking on how bad Putin is, on the newest massacre and how evil, weird, losers the people are that don't agree with this narrative.

In all these lies, the war is real, our countries are sending weapons, are sending our military men east to train soldiers and to get trained in NATO war games.

I think we have crossed a crossing a barrier here, that it's not just high energy prices, or lack of toilet paper, but we might see blood on the streets again. We are committing acts of war. And direct retaliation from Russia might only be a matter of time.
 

get2choppaaa

Hummingbird
Orthodox
The proposed numbers for this wave of mobilization are 300,000. That will make an enormous difference for Russian forces on the frontlines when they are eventually ready to be deployed, as up to this point the Russians have demonstrated in most cases (with some exceptions) a qualitative superiority over the Ukrainians but are unable to manage the entire massive war zone with the forces they had, which numbered roughly 200,000, while the Ukrainians mobilized vastly more men. Adding 300,000 men will make a huge difference in their ability to carry out military operations. But you are right I think that ultimately it won't be enough; after all, the Ukrainians are just going to keep drafting more and more and keep getting more and more from the West. However, I noticed today Russian telegram sources talking about how this was the first mobilization wave in Russia, implying there could still be a lot more coming. In fact, I saw one source say the second wave will start immediately after annexation, but who knows.
The issue is that they have to keep forces on their other borders also.

The Russians can't just go all in with Ukraine.

I mean they could... But with countries like Finland trying to join NATO... Ect...

They will have to either conduct multiple mobilizations or start ramping up the intensity and brutality of the conflict.

Obviously this is all in phases...but part of me wonders why it wouldn't be better to have smoked out Zelensky early and decapitated the snake. Could he not have done so and provided Yakunovich a return?

I would say this will escalate as more Europeans economic situation worsens.

The Euro is going to go down, capital is going to leave EU for the US, and the EU will break up as this all plays out.

That means more danger for conflict to spread as dialogue continues to break down.

I'm many ways this is WWI all over again just changing countries .
 

mountainaire

Woodpecker
Orthodox Inquirer
If these new soldiers are as professional as the ones that have been fighting thus far, I don't see NATO/Ukraine holding up against them. 200k men spread over the entire eastern border were able to take nearly 20% of the country.

Adding 300k additional military personnel is an increase of 150%. More staffing, more support, more resources, more equipment, more men to keep the territory they've taken, and more men for offensive operations to break the stagnant battle lines.

I know people are blackpilled about things, but this may end up being the pressure that forces a resolution and end to this conflict. The Russians were already fighting extraordinarily well before this...
 

Rubin

Sparrow
Catholic
Even though Western media is currently reporting about mass protests, etc. it really looks like to me like the Navalny crowd all over again.

I have seen the Navalny protests in real life and looking at the footage, these protests are similar in size with similar types of people going there.
A relatively small amount of questionable looking fellows who certainly do not possess any capacity to bring down the regime.

Without some crazy psyop I highly doubt that any color revolution could gain momentum there now. While the Russian propaganda machine is slow and far too reminiscent of boring milktoast conservatism ("Americans are the real racists, America is the real dictatorship blablabla"), so is the Russian society as a whole. Of course many people are sad now about this but it would take severe economic downturn for an actual unrest to start.

Also I assume that most of the drafted men are not from Moscow and Piter. Life in the big cities is intended to bounce back to status quo asap, as these are the main places where a potential color revolution could break out. So therefore it is smart to first take men from remote areas.
Russia is a huge country without a lot of opportunities for the average man outside of the urban centers.
The fact that city life and normal Russian life are so strictly seperated is a very great instrument of power. And while many urbanites are more connected to western humanitarian propaganda, the usual Russian lives with something I call "big country syndrome" - something which occurs also in places like Brazil, China and the US.. A total ignorance and lack of understanding of any life, language or culture outside of their area. This makes them a lot more pro-Z and easier to draft than the average urbanite.

The only issue I see is that the next waves of troops might not possess the same hunger like the first wave, as the first wave chose to be there.
If a soldier chooses war, he is usually in a morale of winning and violence - something that the upcoming reinforcements might be lacking.
Then again - war is fight or flight so their morale could change quickly once enganged in active combat. It really seems like they are taking a lot of older guys as well - I hope they can provide some competent leadership.
 

paternos

Woodpecker
Catholic
It's the dollar enforced by the world's biggest army.

You can compare it to a situation as if the US has the only Gold mine in the world, and the whole world is trading in gold.

Everyone is always looking for dollars, as on the global market oil, food, cotton, natural gas are all traded in Dollars.

Even though the US can print as much as they want, they dollar will always be scarce caused by the huge demand. The US hasn't collapsed as you can print dollars and get stuff in return from other countries. The dollar printing is a US tax on the global economy (you can finance a big army and get a lot of free stuff of it)

There is 1 thing essential for the house in the US to keep standing and that's the dollar.

That's the main priority for the elite I think. I find it very interesting the policy the US is pursuing with the high interest rates. We have seen a run on the dollar even though the US has ridiculous free money for everyone packages.

I think the high interest rates are there to secure the dominant dollar position. (everyone desires to keep their dollar positions now)

In this financialized economy hard workers and hard working enterpreneurs don't make a lot of money. 90% goes to the men in the middle, hence indeed a stadium costs 1 billion. And the US army costs 10x that of China, but the amount of people is about the same.

The US and the EU are so rusty under a small layer of Chrome. If we can't print and get free stuff anymore, we are done. It's like communism in Russia. It sucked all enterpreneurship out the the people there and under Putin a new philosophy and energy came. We have lived under financialism. Many of us have never worked, we just took cuts of everything, we call that jobs but they produce nothing. All the real estate traders, insurance agents, banks, tech companies, platforms, intellectual property shells.

There is nothing left.

To add to this post, just came across this graph. The euro was almost taking over the Dollar as the dominant currency during corona on Swift.

The war in Ukraine has proven very effective to weaken the euro and strengthen the dollar. We expected a downturn everywhere in the west but with the war in the Ukraine, the US is clearly getting out on top currently.

EU, Russia, Chinas currencies and economies have severely weakened vs the US

It reminds me a bit on WW2. Having the European continent fight with Russia, the whole continent in shambles, giving loans and claim what you want for pennies after the war.

I always talk on "the west" but it might be good to separate Europe from the US. As we are more occupied puppet states and we were getting to relatively powerful in corona.

It couldn't be a game for power? Could it?

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