Lounge of Russian-Ukrainian War

Redcrosse

Kingfisher
Other Christian

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer

US losing Indonesia as an ally.

US and Indonesian defense chiefs came away from a meeting on Monday with apparently differing understandings of how closely the two countries are militarily aligned.

Asked about Western pressure to cut off those defense procurements, Subianto said, “We have a longstanding relationship with Russia and China. We have relationships with Russia for many, many years. Our military uses Russian equipment . . . We value our relationship with China. As an independent and sovereign country, we reserve the right to use and acquire equipment from many, many countries.”

Subianto said Indonesia sees China as a friendly nation and expects to resolve overlapping territorial claims through negotiation.

Other than Canada and the EU nations run by girls, does the US have any allies in its Russiaphobia? Poland maybe?
 

Pointy Elbows

Pelican
Orthodox
In Kharkiv, average December daily high is 29 F. Average daily low is 18 F.
In Kherson, average December daily high is 36 F. Average daily low is 27 F.
In Kiev, they are 30 F and 21F respectively.

Russians get the whole of this winter for movement, rather than just the last few weeks of it. Southern region will get sloppy faster, with daily freeze/thaw. I wonder how deep the soil freezes after a few weeks. Does just the top inch or two get sloppy under tank traffic, but subsurface stays frozen?
 

Wyotana

Sparrow
Orthodox
In Kharkiv, average December daily high is 29 F. Average daily low is 18 F.
In Kherson, average December daily high is 36 F. Average daily low is 27 F.
In Kiev, they are 30 F and 21F respectively.

Russians get the whole of this winter for movement, rather than just the last few weeks of it. Southern region will get sloppy faster, with daily freeze/thaw. I wonder how deep the soil freezes after a few weeks. Does just the top inch or two get sloppy under tank traffic, but subsurface stays frozen?
Frost depends on a lot of things-

Heavy snow cover insulates the ground and stops frost in even severe cold. It won't go very deep, at least.
Dry ground doesn't conduct well and won't usually freeze very deep. But obviously, dry ground can be operated on all year.
Ground cover affects frost. Heavy grass and vegetation are good insulators. Bare ground is much quicker to freeze.
Swampy or springy areas may not freeze at all many years.
Bare, moderately wet ground may freeze hard with just a few cold nights.

Tracked vehicles can operate in normal muddy conditions year round. Walking across a typical muddy field, on the other hand, is awful.

It's the swampy, bottomless stuff that swallows machines. That may take severe cold to operate equipment on. If something heavy goes somewhere it shouldn't have, it can be a huge deal to extract it.

Bare, frozen ground that gets sunlight with moderate temps can be terrible, awful, and no good at all. Like working in a tar pit all day long until it freezes again in the evening. Again, tracked machines are pretty good for this, but everything else suffers. Mud is demoralizing, even when you can operate in it.

This is my perspective, based on no combat experience whatever, but many years of working in it.
 

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
In Kharkiv, average December daily high is 29 F. Average daily low is 18 F.
In Kherson, average December daily high is 36 F. Average daily low is 27 F.
In Kiev, they are 30 F and 21F respectively.

Russians get the whole of this winter for movement, rather than just the last few weeks of it. Southern region will get sloppy faster, with daily freeze/thaw. I wonder how deep the soil freezes after a few weeks. Does just the top inch or two get sloppy under tank traffic, but subsurface stays frozen?

Missiles, artillery and panes dont care about conditions on the ground.

Russias history revolves around sucking in the enemy during harsh weather. The Russians can sit this out and stir the pot whilst Ukrainians see it as a win and keep going.

Whilst it is the 21st century and we have different tech to hand the basic factor in all of this - humans - are still the weakest link. A long winter with no peace will be very difficult for the average grunt on the ground regardless of patriotism.
 

Pointy Elbows

Pelican
Orthodox
Frost depends on a lot of things-

Heavy snow cover insulates the ground and stops frost in even severe cold. It won't go very deep, at least.
Dry ground doesn't conduct well and won't usually freeze very deep. But obviously, dry ground can be operated on all year.
Ground cover affects frost. Heavy grass and vegetation are good insulators. Bare ground is much quicker to freeze.
Swampy or springy areas may not freeze at all many years.
Bare, moderately wet ground may freeze hard with just a few cold nights.

Tracked vehicles can operate in normal muddy conditions year round. Walking across a typical muddy field, on the other hand, is awful.

It's the swampy, bottomless stuff that swallows machines. That may take severe cold to operate equipment on. If something heavy goes somewhere it shouldn't have, it can be a huge deal to extract it.

Bare, frozen ground that gets sunlight with moderate temps can be terrible, awful, and no good at all. Like working in a tar pit all day long until it freezes again in the evening. Again, tracked machines are pretty good for this, but everything else suffers. Mud is demoralizing, even when you can operate in it.

This is my perspective, based on no combat experience whatever, but many years of working in it.
username checks out. :)

Top bolded area seems to describe northeast area/Kharkov front.
Middle bolded seems to describe that swampland on the Belarus-Ukraine border.
Bottom bolded seems to describe the Kherson/Southern front. Which goes to Foolsgo1d's post:

Missiles, artillery and panes dont care about conditions on the ground.

Russias history revolves around sucking in the enemy during harsh weather. The Russians can sit this out and stir the pot whilst Ukrainians see it as a win and keep going.

Whilst it is the 21st century and we have different tech to hand the basic factor in all of this - humans - are still the weakest link. A long winter with no peace will be very difficult for the average grunt on the ground regardless of patriotism.

The Russian pullback from Kherson might be the first stirring of that pot.

Russians had big gains quick, then spring came and even the tracked vehicles had a hard time. If this is a cold winter in the south, that bodes well for Russian tanks.
 

Easy_C

Peacock
Frost depends on a lot of things-

Heavy snow cover insulates the ground and stops frost in even severe cold. It won't go very deep, at least.
Dry ground doesn't conduct well and won't usually freeze very deep. But obviously, dry ground can be operated on all year.
Ground cover affects frost. Heavy grass and vegetation are good insulators. Bare ground is much quicker to freeze.
Swampy or springy areas may not freeze at all many years.
Bare, moderately wet ground may freeze hard with just a few cold nights.

Tracked vehicles can operate in normal muddy conditions year round. Walking across a typical muddy field, on the other hand, is awful.

It's the swampy, bottomless stuff that swallows machines. That may take severe cold to operate equipment on. If something heavy goes somewhere it shouldn't have, it can be a huge deal to extract it.

Bare, frozen ground that gets sunlight with moderate temps can be terrible, awful, and no good at all. Like working in a tar pit all day long until it freezes again in the evening. Again, tracked machines are pretty good for this, but everything else suffers. Mud is demoralizing, even when you can operate in it.

This is my perspective, based on no combat experience whatever, but many years of working in it.

To a point. The tracked vehicles themselves can operate in fairly muddy conditions, but right behind them will be support vehicles that can't.
Snow can be a problem because if it gets heavy enough the snowbanks will hide things like ditches that vehicles will get stuck in.
 

Max Roscoe

Ostrich
Orthodox Inquirer
I'm a big picture guy.
David Murrin is a really bright "forecaster" who I recently discovered on James Dellinpole's podcast.


He's big on trends and forecasts and Kondratiev waves, sort of like Gerald Celente or the Elliot Wave guys. I find this stuff fascinating.

His most recent talk touches on Ukraine for the first 10 minutes or so, and he makes the point that Russia probably has the single best army in the world now, because they are gaining real world experience fighting modern armies with modern technology and weaponry. Drone striking Afghan wedding parties doesn't really give you many real world skills in modern warfare.

He makes a comparison to the Spanish civil war, which is where Blitzkrieg was developed. Germany observed and aided, and used that a few years later to dominate Europe.

Likewise, what we are seeing develop now is the art of drone warfare, something never done before, which will be implemented heavily in the next major war. Who most stands to benefit from drone warfare? Who makes more drones, by far, than the rest of the world combined? Who is in a perfect position to leapfrog an existing world power with a new technology that will make their old, expensive warfare infrastructure obsolete, the way forts and battleships were quickly outdated in the first World War?

China.

So we are not just bankrupting American coffers, killing Slavic men on both sides, destroying the Exhorbitant Privilege of the US dollar, and giving Russia tons of battlefield experience, but we are needlessly giving China an incredible opportunity to snatch the crown from us in the coming years.

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Fidel Castro predicted this conflict over 30 years ago. He said the next war will be in Europe, between Russia, and Fascism, only Fascism will be called democracy.

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The western democracies, with their cancel culture, sanctions, and global dictates, are far more dictatorial than any fascist government ever was. It is notable that Nazi Germany maintained banking and trade relations with many nations during the war, including the United States. Yet Russian cats can't be featured in worldwide pet exhibitions because Reasons. The western democracies are far more fascist in terms of political and economic freedoms than actual overt fascists were.

(If you have any Castrophobio, it is worth exploring the history of Fidel Castro, and Ho Chi Minh. Both were revolutionaries that thought America was on their side, but when they were surprisingly rebuffed by the USA, they turned to the only other power that could offer them trade and security protections, the USSR, hence they became "communist.") Totally intentional on the US part. Which brings up the next point:

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German leader Angela Merkel admits this conflict was not a "surprise Russian invasion" but a totally predictable and preventable conflict, but the western powers chose to purposefully ignore the MInsk agreement that they promised to uphold in 2014:


The former Federal Chancellor of Germany said in a recent interview with the German outlet Der Spiegel, that the special military operation that began on February 24 did not take her by surprise since the Minsk Agreements were destroyed and no one at the European Council wanted to support his initiative to start new negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"It wasn't a surprise. The Minsk agreements were destroyed. In the summer of 2021, after the meeting of presidents Biden and Putin, she wanted to re-establish an independent European format for discussion with Putin together with Emmanuel Macron at the European Council. Some opposed it and I no longer had the strength to impose myself, since everyone knew that in the autumn I would leave. I asked other Council members: “Why don't you volunteer? Say something". One said: "It's too much for me". Another just shrugged: "It's something the greats should do".

Merkel and Macron are heavily criticized by the right in the USA, but they are the only major EU leaders who tried to free their nations (perhaps halfheartedly) from the grasp of America.
 
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