The idea that "shadowy groups" can run things for prolonged time is totally disproved by history. If you want to rule, you eventually have to show your face and show you are in control. If you don't do that, the middlemen just take over and oust you. Proven time and time again.
If these "shadowy groups" were so powerful, they would not be in the shadows but would come out and they would not need to play games. If they are in the shadows they're not powerful. It's that simple.
Your theory basically depends on some hyper-reality where everything is supposedly just a show for the elites, and everything that ever happens is just "part of the plan" and "what they want you to think". You'd also have to assume not just the West but also China, Russia etc. are totally under control of who knows who and everything that happens in politics is just some weird game and not real. And from that it just goes to endless elite-worshipping and blackpilling. I wonder what would it take for you to reconsider your theory. I bet that even if massive unscaled Europe-wide noncompliance happens and vax passes are removed indefinitely, you'd still say this is "exactly what they planned for". Like I said, it's defeatist, blackpilling, elite-worshipping position.
I kind of subscribe to this idea as well, a combination of perverse short term incentives, as well as not attributing to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
Basically media catches wind of a bug 18 months ago, then blasts fear porn 24/7 to try and save their dying industry. Being more pervasive than every, and people being less apt to think for themselves and more cowardly than ever, they it up with both hands.
Politicians, also lacking courage and leadership merely respond to the way the wind blows so they can keep power and make people like them. Might as well grab a bit more for yourself while they're at it. Hence, you get closing of everything, squashing of rights, and money printer go brrrrr.
Big pharmaceutical companies get dollar signs in their eyes, rush out a "vaccine", and like any good marketeer, downplay the negative, upsell the positive. "Safe and effective! Side effects rare! Give to your children!".
You now have two groups. White collar/gov't types who've only been positively impacted since they now work from home for the same pay, and blue collar work with your hands types who are getting free gov't money. The vast majority are happy to see this situation continue indefinitely. You have gov't workers who produce nothing, and blue collar workers getting paid for nothing. 6 months later people are surprised when there is nothing to buy and bacon costs $10/lb.
Now, turns out vaccines aren't nearly as effective as we were told (boosters forever! - more dollar signs), people still have fear burned in their psyche, and the media, in that never ending quest for eyeballs switches from death counts to case counts, without mentioning that death rates have plummeted. People continue to run around saying the sky is falling, something must be done.
Cognitive dissonance runs strong. It simply can't be true that the vaccines are safe and effective and everyone should get one, and that they're so ineffective that merely being around an unvaxxed person will probably kill you. But no matter. Like every good story, it needs a villan, and the unvaxxed fulfill that role beautifully. No different than every purge/which hunt/persecution/genocide of the past. Like every time in a fantasy story something unexplainable happens and "A wizard did it" as an easy cop-out, it's the same thing here. Anytime there's a pandemic related problem/conflict/inconsistency, "It's the fault of the anti-vaxxers". The media is only all too eager to stoke the fires of division, while simultaneous pushing their righteous (in their mind) agenda (blame whitey), as all this division leads to more $ for them. Meanwhile society burns.
I'm with WN in that I don't think it's shadowy cabals with wretched plans. Merely a 7 party prisoner's dilemma, abetted by ignorance, opportunism, shortsightedness, cowardice and above all fear. In short, human nature on steroids. Everyone acted in their own best short term interest. There was nothing illogical or conspiratorial about it, It's just that had ppl actually sat down and thought where all this leads, it should have been fairly obvious.