JimNortonFan said:
Someone posted a phrase to the effect of "The postmodern era, when substance is out of style."
http://www.slate.com/articles/doubl...rtender_went_from_a_male_to_a_female_job.html
It's the free market, the bars can do whatever they want.
However, this article needs to be acknowledged by the glass ceiling crowd.
Middle aged skilled men losing jobs to unskilled good looking women.
Read this.
http://nymag.com/news/features/65238/index1.html
It explains a lot about the Vegas and New York bottle girl scene, bar tenders, VIP promoters. It is a good read.
It focuses on the story of Rachel Uchitel who was the VIP club promoter that set Tiger Woods up with girls. The whole fight on the morning he wrecked his car and the story hit the press was that the wife found out about what he was doing and went after him with a golf club.
But this story goes into the whole scene of VIP and bottle service, and how the "promoters" are really pimps, more or less. And the bottle girls are just a little further down the line, all are under pressure to pull high rollers into clubs. And really, Vegas has shifted from being a Gambling destination to a party destination. Revenue from gambling has dropped consistently as a percentage of revenue received in Las Vegas since 1992. And now it is about 42%. With the rest coming from hotels, restaurants, and clubs.
So this article explains the whole deal and this metamorphosis. This Rachel Uchitel woman had a deal with whatever hotel/disco, Elan, I think, for a salary of $250,000 and a percentage of tips for another $250,000. That's a lot of money to pay someone to pull people into a bar. And I think she had deals with a couple other places.
My opinion is that this bartender thing is just one more brick in the wall for men. I wrote this short story once about New York in 2030. Manhattan is a unique situation because Manhattan is surrounded by water, Hudson bay to the south, east river on the east side, Hudson River on the west, and the Harlem river separating Manhattan Island from the Bronx. The nature of it is that that you are on it or you are off it. An apartment just on the other side of the Brooklyn Bridge is millions less than the same apartment just on the other side of the bridge.
So in my story, oil production had hit the shits by 2030 and unemployment in America and Europe was like 40%. And Manhattan was the place to be because of the physical separation from the water, and all the rich people from everywhere, Asia, Europe, America, Latin America, moved there because it is urban, walkable, transit and taxis, it has a high concentration of wealthy people, culture. And because it could be secured. And they closed it off to anyone that didn't live there or work there. You could get on Manhattan Island if you didn't live there or work there, but you had to pay a toll that was prohibitive for most people. Residents and workers got a badge thing, like a scannable key card, to show the subway ticket booths or tolls booths at the bridges and you paid a resident or worker fee for a ticket on the trains or to enter the tolls and a way higher fee if you didn't have the badge. And cops would stop you if you didn't look the part and ask to see your badge or your toll receipt.
So basically Manhattan was all women and high earner men. Even in the fast food places, cute girls got jobs because they got a badge to be on Manhattan and they would hit the clubs, like in the linked story, and just throw themselves at any man just to have a place to crash, get drinks bought, and even eat, and maybe nail down a high status man. So every job in a store, in a bar, restaurant, fast food place, coffee shop, office, was held by bangeable women.
And that's what Vegas is becoming in the parts along the strip.
And New York is sort of that way today, not totally, but getting there. The big real estate trend in New York is buying buildings or townhomes with multiple apartments and turning them into one large residence. Or buying two or three smaller apartments and combining them. On real estate web pages once the price gets below $1,000,000 your ass is in Brooklyn. And $5 million doesn't buy shit. $10,000,000 gets a pretty normal looking 4,000 sq foot apartment. $15,000,000 buys something cool. And you are on page 8 on trulia.com before you get below $20,000,000. You get to $20,000,000 on page 1 in Los Angeles, definitely page 2.
It is the only place in the country where high dollar real estate is moving. I mean like 10 million dollar apartments sell quickly in New York and the same apartment in Miami Beach, Las Vegas, or Los Angeles has been sitting on the market for 3 years. So Manhattan has a better situation for nailing women than most other cities. They have better looking girls available in Miami or Los Angeles. But the numbers for men are better in New York. If you have money. Because men without money don't live there. They live in Queens.
So that's how I see the future. A slow growth, no growth economy that gets shocked into recession with every oil price hike, maybe not as bad as 2008-2010, but jobs get lost, and come back slower, never reaching the numbers of the employed before.
There about 130.8 million employed in America right now. It was 138 million Jan 2008. Today's level is the same number as were employed in 1998. There were 280 million people in the US in 1998 and there are 313 million right now. An increase of 33 million people with the same number of jobs as 15 years ago. And 7.2 million less than Jan 2008. It had dropped to 128 million in 2009.
And there are 4 million new entrants into the job market every year. Looking back at the number of births, I see that since 1990 there were about 4 million babies born every year and they are all 20 now and coming out into the job markets. So in 5 years there will 20 million more people, excluding any immigration. All entering an economy that struggles to add 2.4 million jobs a year with 200,000 jobs added in a month being cause for celebration. To get this country back to where it was in percentage of persons employed in Jan 2008, 6 million jobs a year would need to be added. And that is highly doubtful.
There are signs that oil production is leveling off at the current price level of $100 per barrel. If domestic oil production does not increase, then it does not offset the loss in international conventional production due to natural depletion which is dropping at an annual rate of between 2.5% and 4.5% depending on which data from which agency you accept.
So far since 2010 we have been able to increase production domestically to offset that drop with "Fracking". But the numbers of rigs drilling wells dropped at the end of 2012. So fewer wells are being drilled. Hydrofracking wells have decrease in production of 41% per year, so a well drilled that starts producing today will only be producing 41% of the original production after two years. So the overall oil available in the world decreases because domestic production, as high as it is, doesn't keep up with international depletion loss. And the price rises. And recession comes back. And jobs get lost.
Drilling picks up because the new price levels to which oil rises makes more drilling projects viable at the new price level. And some lost jobs get recovered, but not as many as were lost. And this occurs again until drilling projects at the new price level begin to slow down, domestic production levels off, and is not enough to offset international depletion, and we enter recession again. It is a cycle and the resulting graph of numbers employed will look stairs going down.
And the core of the economy does OK, but the periphery shrinks. Tech and core IT does OK, banking does OK, Telecommunications does somewhat OK, anything that is an export does OK. Europe struggles more than the US. They don't have growing oil production and are losing what they have. But anything to do with discretionary spending takes a hit as more of consumer's pay goes to gasoline. Government kind of struggles from losing tax revenue to job loss and sales tax loss.
Expect the cycle to go something like 3 years sideways, 1 year down. Three years with 1-3 million jobs added, one year with no growth or losses. And those 4 million kids keep coming out. So more and more of America starts looking like my New York story. People with money, people in management in core companies, and cute girls do OK. The rest suck shit and live on the fringe.
So as the core gets clogged with low growth, no job movement, nobody changing jobs for better jobs, and those attractive girls that would have found spots in the core, or in other discretionary consumption industries, they fan out into other areas and push out other workers.
Namely men. Like those bartenders.
So of those 4 million kids coming out, assume 2 million are girls. Of that two million, one million are fat, 500,000 are OK, and 500,000 are bangable. So in four years that's 2.0 million bangable girls hitting the job market with a high likelihood of finding work.
Using even this months very positive job numbers at a two month average of 200,000 per month, with 3 years of three years at 2.5 million jobs per year and 1 year with little growth or job loss, then 30% of all jobs added are going just to bangable young girls entering the job market, just for those girls that come on line for that 4 year time period, girls 18-22.
And then 70% for the rest of the people all 7 million that have no job now and the other 14 million young people that will enter the job market within 4 years, means 6 million jobs created for 21 million people to fight over. And in 4 more years after that, 2 million more bangeable girls, 14 million others continue to spill out into the labor market.
So it's gonna suck being a 20-30 year old beta. And even worse for an omega. Or a fattie. Or anyone over 45 that doesn't have it nailed down yet.
