Military Intervention in Syria.

[Hencredible Casanova]

Ok, but oil resources in Syria? Anyone knows? Wikipedia lists it as #32 worldwide with 400 000 barrels per day ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production ) and 0.5% of world supply, but I don't know how to put that in perspective. Is that a lot? A lot for a country of its size? A lot for a country of its population? It doesn't seem like much to me, but I might be wrong.

You're right. Oil is not an important factor in the Syrian economy. 400K barrels per day is minuscule to be considered a significant producer.

Oil rich states in the region are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. Pretty much most of the countries bordering the Persian Gulf.

Mediterranean countries save for Algeria and Libya aren't major oil producers. But Syria's geography does put it in the middle of major shipping routes and pipelines. WSJ put out an article on this recently.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/08/27/where-syria-fits-in-the-worlds-oil-supply-system/

 

[Quintus Curtius]

What a laughable, sorry write up.
McCain is a pure warmonger and a lackey, plain and simple. It's a true shame he finds fit to put Israel's interests ahead of his own country's interests. But that's how power works.
But what does he care? He's worth hundreds of millions, has no skin in the game, and make whatever "ex cathedra" pronouncement he wants. The people who bear the burdens of his arrogance are us.

The part of your comment that I highlighted in bold is one of my favorite concepts. One of my favorite author/thinkers is Nassim Nicholas Taleb and he wrote a paper on that very topic. I always rely on that metric when evaluating someone's sincerity and potential motives when suggesting an idea.

ttp://nassimtaleb.org/category/skin-in-the-game/

__________________

So true, Hen.
What I read was even more pathetic that the "Pravda" McCain published his little hit piece in was actually something nobody reads in Russia anymore.
Apparently, McCain thought he was making some important pronunciamento in the Russian equivalent of the New York Times. From what I've read, the Pravda that published McCain's essay is some quasi-obscure rag that isn't even widely available in Russia.
Putin smothered him before he even got off the ground...!

 

[Giovonny]

But Syria's geography does put it in the middle of major shipping routes and pipelines

Syria is in the middle of major shipping routes and oil pipelines!

I suspect that this is a major factor for us wanting to go over there.

We usually don't do humanitarian missions. We do resource securing missions.

This is not a judgement. It's just my observation. I don't necessarily disagree.

 

[Quintus Curtius]

Giovonny:
Yes, true. That's one of the major reasons. Pepe Escobar has talked about this in his articles at the Asia Times. There are two competing pipeline visions...one has a pipeline running from Iran through Iraq, Syria, and to the Mediterranean. Another competing vision is that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf petromonarchies want to build a pipeline crossing through Syria into Turkey, which Syria won't agree to. So, that's just one of the many reasons why the House of Saud wants Assad overthrown.
Other reasons are that they're terrified of the Iranians. The Israelis also know it's in their interests to see Syria destroyed. They prefer ignorant Wahabist fanatics to Hezbollah/Syria/Iran, who can actually beat them.
It's all about power and geostrategy...and nothing about humanitarianism.

 

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

But why would USA care about pipelines, given that all of its imported oil (other than from Canada and perhaps Mexico) comes from oil tankers? Or is there money to be made by whomever controls these pipelines (they tax the oil flowing through them, like road toll)?

Alternatively, with USA now being such a large oil producer, to the point that it would be able even to export, perhaps it is looking to make money on sabotaging the pipeline and thus increasing the global price of oil?

 

[Hencredible Casanova]

The Israelis also know it's in their interests to see Syria destroyed. They prefer ignorant Wahabist fanatics to Hezbollah/Syria/Iran, who can actually beat them.

I was with you until about here. Even if one dislikes Israel or disagrees with its policies, I don't think it's fair to say that its enemies can defeat them. Israel has defeated Syria in every conflict they've had and continues to occupy some of its territory today (Golan Heights). Even throughout the Syrian Civil War, Israel has launched several successful strikes at targets within Syria while not facing any retaliation whatsoever.

You can say Hezbollah succeeded where others failed in their skirmishes with Israel but in the years since that conflict they haven't done anything to openly provoke Israel. They lost many of their elite fighters and saw most of their infrastructure/command posts destroyed during that conflict while also losing a significantly greater number of soldiers.

There seems to be a potential opening with Iran's new leadership about negotiating on its nuclear program. No doubt their economy has suffered tremendously due to the unprecedented and crippling sanctions. As it stands today, Iran would also lose a war with Israel because Israel has vastly superior technological and military capabilities as well as the fourth largest air force in the world. There simply is no balance whatsoever. Even one of Iran's top chemists was killed last year in a surprise attack by motorcycle assassins orchestrated by Mossad (Israel's intelligence agency).

 

[Quintus Curtius]

Hen:
Yeah, I generally agree with what you're saying, in that no militaries in the region can compete with the Israelis on a conventional warfare type of basis. That much is definitely true. Israel has better technology, training, command & control, air force, surveillance, nearly everything. And they are backed unconditionally by the world's biggest superpower.
However, I don't believe this is entire picture.
The Israelis see their security environment also in terms of "potential" threats. Iran and Hezbollah may not now be a match for them, but they know that the balance of power will not remain forever in their favor. Israel needs to eliminate even potential threats. Their mentality and security doctrines will not permit even the slightest bit of military deterrence to exist on their borders. Hence their obsession with destroying Hezbollah and neutering Iran.
They see, quite rightly, something in Iran and Hezbollah that they don't see in the secular Arab states, which have militaries that are jokes.
The Iranians and Hasan Nasrallah are actually intelligent, capable, and are just as good at lying and obfuscation as Israel is. This worries them. This is the reason they are trying to manipulate the US into attacking them. Assad is just a conduit for arms. He's never been a threat. The real worry is Iran and the Shi'ite groups, who are much more intelligent, subtle, and capable than the inept opponents Israel has faced in the past (PLO, Egypt, etc.)
Further, I think a good case can be made that Hezbollah did defeat Israel in the 2006 war. I've posted the military study that shows this in detail. Reasonable minds can disagree, but I think it shows that Hezbollah are determined, disciplined, and man-for-man, better soldiers than the Israelis.
The Israelis don't want any kind of potential rival on their borders. They actually seem to enjoy, and feed off of, living in a climate of hatred. Their culture and mentality fosters a culture of victimization, when in fact they are the victimizers.