Monero (XMR) thread

RichieP

Pelican
Biologist said:
Currently pretty much all of the cryptocurrencies are being used for speculation.

However, the technology behind Monero gives it a lot of potential for being used for real life purposes (e.g. private transactions).

Yeah but what matters from an ROI perspective is how much of the current price is due to speculation.

If XMR price is caused by 95% speculation and 5% use case, then even if the demand for private transactions triples, the price and ROI are still determined largely by speculators.

The "true" value of XMR due to demand for private transactions might ultimately be $10, $20, or $50. That's not a smart rationale for investing given today's price ($313).

Think about gold. If the jewellry market was set to somehow miraculously 2x, would you buy gold just because of that? You shouldn't, because most of the price of gold is not determined by demand for gold jewellry.
 

Samseau

Owl
Gold Member
RichieP said:
Biologist said:
Currently pretty much all of the cryptocurrencies are being used for speculation.

However, the technology behind Monero gives it a lot of potential for being used for real life purposes (e.g. private transactions).

Yeah but what matters from an ROI perspective is how much of the current price is due to speculation.

If XMR price is caused by 95% speculation and 5% use case, then even if the demand for private transactions triples, the price and ROI are still determined largely by speculators.

The "true" value of XMR due to demand for private transactions might ultimately be $10, $20, or $50. That's not a smart rationale for investing given today's price ($313).

Think about gold. If the jewellry market was set to somehow miraculously 2x, would you buy gold just because of that? You shouldn't, because most of the price of gold is not determined by demand for gold jewellry.

But none of this changes the fundamentals.

Even if a massive crypto crash would occur, Monero would still be King with it's 5% actual value vs the 0% value on the other cryptos. Monero still the best long.

And by the way, the use value of Monero makes up far more than 5%. It's literally being adopted by a multi-trillion dollar industry (drug trade). You're telling me that's 5%? :lol:
 

Samseau

Owl
Gold Member
Pretty big news:


Light Coin creator wants to team up with XMR head dev to form atomic swaps. This would allow massive liquidity into Monero as LTC is accepted on every major exchange but XMR is not.

Once this happens, to get XMR all one would need to do is buy some LTC and then swap it instantly into XMR.

Part of the reason I like Monero is that the people running the project are hard workers, networking and brainstorming constantly to make Monero an amazing technology. Really inspires confidence.
 

RichieP

Pelican
Samseau said:
But none of this changes the fundamentals.

Even if a massive crypto crash would occur, Monero would still be King with it's 5% actual value vs the 0% value on the other cryptos. Monero still the best long.

At it's current price it may be overvalued, even given it's ultimate use case. If I buy at $300 and it crashes to it's $25 but appreciates to $100 because that is ultimately it's "actual value" given it's use case, I've lost a shit ton of money.

Current levels of speculation clearly matter when considering ROI.

And by the way, the use value of Monero makes up far more than 5%. It's literally being adopted by a multi-trillion dollar industry (drug trade). You're telling me that's 5%? :lol:

That's the real question - how much more of that value is Monero likely to capture? I find it hard to believe every purchase will be in XMR and every drug dealer will be holding it. Some people will get in and out quickly i.e. $ -> XMR -> $, and it will only be used for a subset of transactions. If you think Monero will hit $100bn or $1tn or whatever market cap, do post your reasoning behind that.
 

whiteknightrises

Kingfisher
Samseau said:
...

Part of the reason I like Monero is that the people running the project are hard workers, networking and brainstorming constantly to make Monero an amazing technology. Really inspires confidence.

That last part is why I believe in projects like Monero and Ethereum.

Those guys are hardworking, not fighting amongst each other, or playing some gay promo/hype-man game. Vitalik Buterin doesn't even eat:

U5dteLT9rQpCGNGBmpHu6FMomB5pQsa_1680x8400


Basically all crypto projects are unproven (though I believe Monero was the only privacy coin researchers at Princeton University were unable to crack) but the Monero/Ethereum devs are clearly on a mission
 

DVY

Ostrich
Gold Member
Any cash-generative business where cash is a problem- moving it, storing it. etc.

In general, any bulk cash is hard to move point A to point B especially privately!

The long case is pretty clear.

Medical marijuana very likely will go to BTC to settle debts.
 

Kona

Crow
Gold Member

Samseau

Owl
Gold Member
RichieP said:
Samseau said:
But none of this changes the fundamentals.

Even if a massive crypto crash would occur, Monero would still be King with it's 5% actual value vs the 0% value on the other cryptos. Monero still the best long.

At it's current price it may be overvalued, even given it's ultimate use case. If I buy at $300 and it crashes to it's $25 but appreciates to $100 because that is ultimately it's "actual value" given it's use case, I've lost a shit ton of money.

Current levels of speculation clearly matter when considering ROI.

And by the way, the use value of Monero makes up far more than 5%. It's literally being adopted by a multi-trillion dollar industry (drug trade). You're telling me that's 5%? :lol:

That's the real question - how much more of that value is Monero likely to capture? I find it hard to believe every purchase will be in XMR and every drug dealer will be holding it. Some people will get in and out quickly i.e. $ -> XMR -> $, and it will only be used for a subset of transactions. If you think Monero will hit $100bn or $1tn or whatever market cap, do post your reasoning behind that.

You're not making an argument against XMR. You're making one against every single crypto except Monero.
 

RichieP

Pelican
Nope. The TL;DR is that it could be overvalued now relative to whatever it settles at due to it's use case.

Current speculation might have the price higher now than the private transactions use case justifies. "It's a multi trillion dollar industry" isn't saying anything about how much of that will sit in Monero, or why it will do that.
 

Samseau

Owl
Gold Member
RichieP said:
Nope. The TL;DR is that it could be overvalued now relative to whatever it settles at due to it's use case.

Current speculation might have the price higher now than the private transactions use case justifies. "It's a multi trillion dollar industry" isn't saying anything about how much of that will sit in Monero, or why it will do that.

Again, the fact that Monero is used for ANYTHING is already more than you can boast for the competitors. Not difficult to understand. So whatever speculative value XMR has is no different than every other shitcoin.
 
Yeah, that's what everyone is saying.

Monero's profit potential is no different than any other shitcoin.

Today is a great day to test this theory since we're in the middle of a big downturn.

I'm thinking that Monero's drop will be within 10% of the average downturn of the top 20 coins.

What are you thinking, Samsaeau? Will it be more resistant than the others?
 

RedPillUK

Pelican
The market is irrational and it doesn't care about whether a coin is used for something or not.

Trying to change the public's opinion into liking a coin because it is the most private, actually has a use, will actually provide true freedom from governments, banks and taxes is just as futile as trying to red pill everyone on women and race.

It might be stupid, but people are more interested in potential, what potential does Monero have? It's already private, what's it going to do in the future? It's going to be more private? That sounds kind of boring.

Other coins are going to completely revolutionise AI! cloud computing! live streaming! social media! payment systems! And it's all on a decentralised blockchain that people can't take down and censor!

Even if that's unrealistic in the near future, that gets people more excited.

You should try and think more like an average normal person, not idealistically to win at this game.

The market is never wrong.

If people decide to use Ripple over Monero, then privacy and freedom is not as important to people as it is to you, Samseau. There is no point in saying they are wrong, if that happens, it will be you who is wrong. Why? Because the market is never wrong. It's so important to accept this.
 

RedPillUK

Pelican
I don't know if you just like to play devil's advocate or maybe I didn't explain that saying well enough.

One of the first chapters in this book, The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas, is called 'The Market is Always Right' and it explains this concept in more detail;

If all trading stopped at any particular price, what would this last posted price = represent? At the most fundamental level, this last price (or any current price) would represent the consensus belief about value, relative to the future, of all the traders who are in the market in that moment. The current price is a direct reflection of the beliefs of all the traders who choose to act as a force on prices by putting on a trade.

So, when there are two traders, one wanting to buy and one wanting to sell at a price and do so, they have made a trade, and they have also made a market.
All that is needed to make the market right are two traders willing to trade at a price. Regardless of the criteria they used to determine value, how rational, irrational, meaningful, or meaningless by your or anyone else's belief system, if two traders are willing to express their belief in future value by making a trade, they have made a market. Unless the trade can be undone, it has to be right by virtue of the fact that it was made.

What you wanted, thought, believed, or expected is of no consequence in the overall scheme of things unless you can trade with enough volume to control the market and move prices in the direction you deem to be correct.

To do this, you would personally have to represent a buying or selling force strong enough to absorb all the counteracting buying or selling represented by the traders who didn't happen to agree with you, at any given moment, with enough financial power left over to bid or offer the price where you want it to be.

For example, if prices penetrated all-time lows, the fact that you may have believed that they would not do it is meaningless, unless you can personally trade with enough volume to move the price back above the old low.

You have to consider that for prices to have penetrated all-time lows, there must have been more traders who believed that the current price was above what they considered to be of value, at least enough to where they believed the all-time low was a selling opportunity or they would not have sold.

For prices to follow through and continue to go lower would indicate that there are more traders willing to act on their belief that prices are high and as a result sell than there are traders who are willing to buy at those prices (all-time lows).

What you believed about value and your reasons for believing it may be of highest quality, but if the market doesn't share your belief, it doesn't really matter how "right" you are based on your superior reasoning process or what you believe to be the quality of your information, because prices are going to go in the direction of the greatest force.

The point here is that right and wrong as you may traditionally think of them don't exist in the market environment. Academic credentials, degrees, reputations, even a high I.Q. don't make you right in this environment as they would in society. Traders, acting on their belief in the future by putting on a trade, are the only force that can act on prices to make them move. Movement creates opportunity to make money, and making money is what trading is all about. This is also true for the hedger trading to protect the value of his assets.

Each individual trader will define what market condition represents enough of an opportunity to put on a trade for whatever reason suits him. Regardless of how wrong you think he may be, if the net result of the collective actions of all the traders participating is moving prices against your position, then they're right and you're the one who is losing money.

The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the market—first as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behavior—have to confront an environment where only you can be wrong, and it's never the other way around. As a trader, you have to decide what is more important—being right or making money—because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another.
 

Samseau

Owl
Gold Member
Never have I thought Monero would be the winner in the short-run. When it comes to the short term, RedPillUK is correct in that the market is never wrong. The market just is.

If people want to trade, go for it, just don't bitch when you get clobbered. Few make money with active trading.

I don't trade. I make longs. Trading is too much of a gamble for my tastes. I put a long down on Trump back in 2015. His stock fell and rose many times before election day, but in the end his price won out.

The same shit will happen for Monero. Relative to BitCoin or ETH, I have yet to lose anything on my Monero. In dollar terms, we're all getting killed. But the rebound will come, not just for crypto, but Monero no matter what as billions will continue to flow through it to fund secure transactions.

It's like if someone told me oil prices dropped. Who fucking cares? People will always need oil. It's called inelastic demand.

In a Darknet reddit, someone asked another user, "What do you think the price of Monero will be a year from now," and the +100 upvoted reply was, "Who cares?" The implication being no matter the price people are still going to use it, which is why Monero is a safe long.
 
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