I think spinning plates into old age is a lifestyle compromise, ego crutch, and huge loss to the gene pool (if you’re really a successful man). To each their own and it’s not a bad life if that’s your only and best option.I agree with some of your points- If you've read Aaron Clarey's "book of numbers"- indeed, the odds are very bad in the US. If your goal is to be happily married, it's about 4 in 1,000. And the other 996 stand to lose around $260k in the procurement, maintenance, and disposal of the marriage relationship. If you had put that into an Index fund as you accumulate the $260k- You stand to gain $7+ million at retirement. That's the cost of pursuing marriage in the USA.
The book is extremely rigorous in its empiricism, data, and solid economic modeling. I'd use it as a definitive authority on the matter.
I disagree with a couple of points though-
"Most good women will be held onto for dear life by men": Sure. Dating market is market for lemons. However, no matter how hard these "good women's" husbands hold onto them, they are going to cheat with the right guy.
There is no stopping in the West for this kind of behavior. In the end, a "good woman" really is just a woman who hadn't been caught. That's all. I've seen enough to tell you there's no such "good woman".
By the way, about 9 outta 10 women I met across all ages on dating sites are in an LTR of some sort. They are always spinning plates and monkey branching, even the not-so-attractive ones. The reality is, the simps far outnumber the low-value women, so they have no fear of repercussions acting in such a way.
"Especially past 30. In America, age gaps of more than 3 years are tough to reconcile. Past age 40, you really have no viable options at all in America.":
I strongly disagree with this. I married someone 11yr my junior. Every girl I dated before her is around the same range. And now, at the age of 41, I am going out with 24-30yr olds. I don't even look at a woman's profile unless she's under 30. And it isn't because I'm somehow better than anybody else, or that I'm trying to brag, at all. If you look around at folks like Rich Cooper or his friends- old dudes have a real edge when it comes to getting young girls, if the old dude has put in the work. I am in good shape, have nice style, live in a trendy place with a view, ride cool motorcycles, have a great network/preselection, and income. Get a few professional photographers and take some solid profile pics. Travel wide, speak another language, have fun hobbies... There is absolutely an advantage for men in their late 30s and 40s to pick up young girls. Men age very well, but again- you gotta put in the work.
The bottom line is, the state of a dating market depends entirely on your goal. If you wanna get married and have kids- Move out of the English-speaking Western world. Do not get married, especially in the US. The vast majority of Western men today do not stand a chance and a non-trivial number of men kill themselves as a result. However, if your goal is to spin plates, then it's fine, in fact, Western women's vapid, materialistic, and ADHD nature, plus social media and handheld devices have made it much easier to spin them.
On the whole, if your goal is to have genuine experiences with women of higher quality, without having have to compete with 1,000 other men (and instead, only 10 other men), on a higher statistical probability.... then you have to move out to SE Asia, or Eastern Europe. And even these places have their issues (you got to speak the language somewhat), and you definitely still have to put in the work.