Older RVF Members: How would you compare 1965-1975 to the present day?


I find the fourth turning stuff incredibly fascinating. It's also referred to as Elliott Wave Theory.

Those are two different things, although both offer predictions based on long term cycles. You should also check out Kondratiev waves.

The problem with these systems is they are not specific and largely unactionable. People who subscribe to them backwards rationalize stuff to validate them.

The Fourth Turning predictions are off by close to 20 years now. The theory says 2020 should be rhying with the period 80 years prior; instead, its rhyming wiht 1968.

Of all the cycles that people have studied, the one that seems to be the most useful is the use of Fibonacci series in stock market technical analysis. Its basically just conversion to the mean, but its a way to better understand the magnitude of such expected changes. The Fibonncci series appears throughout nature.

Max Roscoe

Orthodox Inquirer
It makes sense to me that the waves would be taking longer and longer. Throughout history the average age for first marriage was 20. We are now seeing it pushed up rapidly, and there are many, many in their 30 and 40s who have not married or reproduced. A "generation" no longer means what it used to. It's not nearly as scientific as some take it. It's all really just action / reaction, or as you say reversion to the mean.

In other words it' was entirely predictable that Weimar Germany produced Adolf Hitler. And after a loudmouth, brash figurehead who bashes immigrants, we are likely to see the next generation support a less bombastic tone, and more and more immigration. After all, only a George W Bush could have produced a Barack Obama. A black president, at the time, was unfathomable, but it seems inevitable today that we will have a black female president soon.


Robert Prechter is a financial analyst that looks at societal trends, fashion trends, etc. and makes financial predictions off it. There is definately something to the generational theory. The most recent predictions I read from about a decade ago were that we would see lack of faith in our institutions, a desire for more societal power versus individual, and a dislike of the Fox News "yelling voices on tv" type of news. This all wildly came true.

I dunno, "predicting" declining faith in institutions hardly seems like soothsaying and if you take a liberal definition of "TV" I'd say yelling voices giving "news" are more popular than ever.