Potential Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

DanielH

DanielH

Hummingbird
Moderator
Orthodox
Starting this thread to keep the discussion in the Ukraine thread on point.

Will China use this opportunity to invade Taiwan or will they wait for the further decline of the West?
Would the US retaliate?
Is it even possible to invade such an island considering its terrain?
Would the ethnic Chinese living in Taiwan care to put up much of a fight?

nypost.com

Taiwan warns Chinese aircraft in its air defense zone

The ministry said the latest mission involved eight Chinese J-16 fighters and one Y-8 reconnaissance aircraft.
nypost.com nypost.com
TAIPEI, Feb 24 – Taiwan’s air force scrambled again on Thursday to warn away nine Chinese aircraft that entered its air defense zone, Taiwan’s defense ministry said, on the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine, a crisis being watched closely in Taipei.

Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained of regular such missions by the Chinese air force over the last two years, though the aircraft do not get close to Taiwan itself.

The number of aircraft involved was well off the last large-scale incursion, 39 Chinese aircraft on Jan. 23, and since then, such fly-bys have been sporadic with far fewer aircraft.
Click to expand...
 
thatWay

thatWay

Sparrow
Orthodox
As was said in the Ukraine thread, they have too much to lose from trade sanctions to just go Rambo on Taiwan.

I would expect them to relay on subversion because if Taiwan is anything like the societies it models it's people must be demoralized.
 
B

BarrontheTigercat

Kingfisher
Other Christian
Cross-Post.

I spoke to a half Chinese very blue-pilled UK journalist this evening.
His opinion:

China isn't going to move on the Taiwan and here's why.

1. China do not especially esteem an alliance with Russia. It is more the case that Russia is being pushed toward China.

China are benefiting massively from their alliance with Wall St, they seem to be the manufacturing hub for nearly all of the world's industries thanks to the Red Carpet that Wall St and Capitol Hill rolled out for them.
Every year China gets stronger and the West collapses a little more - this is with the connivance of (((Wall Street))) and (((Capitol Hill))).

Contrast that with Russia - it has an economy smaller than California, smaller than Spain, smaller than Texas or France even..
Where is the upside in becoming rogue allies with Russia in the NWO?

They share a massive border with Russia and so their alliance is one of convenience and pragmatism only, China and Russia hated each other throughout most of the Cold War.

China can stay on good terms with Russia by keeping relations normal and not face sanctions whilst still being the darling of Western finance.

2. Invasion of Taiwan?

The terrain and invasion of a big mountainous island is far harder than taking Normandy. Unless Taiwan totally folds like the Ukrainians (unlikely initially) any invasion will be a blood bath.

Good-bye sweetheart deal with Wall St and Capitol Hill.

3. The CCP is very risk averse. VERY. They believe in spheres of influence. This means that they will happily wipe out hill tribes and gulag Tibetan monks on their turf, pump Falun Gong practitioners' stomachs full of sewage until their intestines burst, put grenades up Mongolian women's vaginas and pull the pin from a distance ... BUT they are wary of foreign adventures.

They invaded Vietnam in 1979 (whilst practically the entire VNA and airforce was occupied with an invasion of Cambodia to the south no less) and they got absolutely mauled by a bunch of elderly farmers and female reservists.

Sure that was the past but notice how their genocides and depredations of past decades have shrunk whilst their profit margin and soft power has soared just by boarding the Wall St gravy train.

At the moment a full scale assault of Taiwan has a 1 in 10 chance of going wrong. Thats too high a risk for the CCP.
Failure could mean the end of the CCP Party ...not just Xi.

Yes, Xi wants to take Taiwan in his lifetime but a rash move and a bloodbath is not in his interests.

4. Make of it what you will but there is a big Party Conference later this year. Traditionally the CCP does not make bold moves at the same time that they are seeking to ratify and confirm their future strategies and offices. Xi looking to solidify his leadership months after a complete bloodbath off the coast of Taiwan? Unlikely.

China are better off sitting this out and just waiting.. they have Wall St, Capitol Hill (aside from childish posturing) and Russia all on their side as it stands.

Taiwan will still be there in the future, and CCP China will be even stronger.
 
V

ViatoremColognia

 
Banned
Atheist
Taiwan makes most high end chips for consumer products, while the automotive industry uses mostly old process nodes made elsewhere.

The real valuable companies are the ones making the equipment that makes chips, and these are located in the US, Germany Netherlands and Japan.
 
T

Towgunner

Pelican
Who knows. That said the opportunity is appealing. We forget there were serious demonstrations in Hong Kong just before the pandemic hit. Funny that. China beat down those demonstrations only a couple of short years ago. At any rate, there's a bit of a trend I'm seeing. Today the opportunity to take Taiwan seems attractive.

The US is weak and has a fraudulent president, which the Chinese may have helped to install. The US is in a cold civil war and is being eaten from the inside out due to wokeism. The US is effectively bankrupt. We cannot finance a global world war without massive inflation and economic collapse. Therefore, we can't finance this. And regarding economics, our multi-decade monetary policy of print and spend is coming to a close. I think we have about 12-24 months until this pops. This is not the same America as the one on the eve of WWII. There is no massive industrial capacity. It's been outsourced to places, such as China, which make many of the key components that go into the very weapons we'll use to fight them.

Russia invaded Ukraine just as the Freedom Convoy started to make its move to DC. I don't think that's a coincidence. Yes, Canada has reversed its martial law, but, it still activated it all the same, plus, we saw a variety of truly despicable actions from gofundme to the freezing of private bank accounts and other assorted acts of state-based coercion. Canada is an authoritarian state. What the American trucker situation ends up like is left to be seen, but, we have some disturbing insights on how it might go. And even if it's relatively uneventful, it's still an important marker in the ongoing civil war here. Either way, it's indicative of the deterioration of this country, which the rising East will exploit.

If the US decides to become more militarily involved in Ukraine then why not attack Taiwan? Now the conflict becomes a two-front war. And a two-front war with very large professional militaries, not, goat herders, which beat the US, by the way. Also, for the moment both Russia and China have a key tactical and strategic advantage with deployed hypersonic weapons. That won't last forever. Such weapons render our large and very expensive CBG's irrelevant and for that matter the rest of the Navy. So, there's a window of time here. And speaking of time-frames, the US will likely not stay wokefied for much longer. The midterms will probably be a bloodbath for the demorats. Trump will win in 2024. A Trump administration will never let China take Taiwan. Of course, that's barring any continued election fraud, which is just as likely (sadly). That said, as powerful as the woke is right now, it's not going to last. Again, there's a window of time to act.
 
G

greenwolf

Woodpecker
Protestant
Towgunner said:
Who knows. That said the opportunity is appealing. We forget there were serious demonstrations in Hong Kong just before the pandemic hit. Funny that. China beat down those demonstrations only a couple of short years ago. At any rate, there's a bit of a trend I'm seeing. Today the opportunity to take Taiwan seems attractive.

The US is weak and has a fraudulent president, which the Chinese may have helped to install. The US is in a cold civil war and is being eaten from the inside out due to wokeism. The US is effectively bankrupt. We cannot finance a global world war without massive inflation and economic collapse. Therefore, we can't finance this. And regarding economics, our multi-decade monetary policy of print and spend is coming to a close. I think we have about 12-24 months until this pops. This is not the same America as the one on the eve of WWII. There is no massive industrial capacity. It's been outsourced to places, such as China, which make many of the key components that go into the very weapons we'll use to fight them.

Russia invaded Ukraine just as the Freedom Convoy started to make its move to DC. I don't think that's a coincidence. Yes, Canada has reversed its martial law, but, it still activated it all the same, plus, we saw a variety of truly despicable actions from gofundme to the freezing of private bank accounts and other assorted acts of state-based coercion. Canada is an authoritarian state. What the American trucker situation ends up like is left to be seen, but, we have some disturbing insights on how it might go. And even if it's relatively uneventful, it's still an important marker in the ongoing civil war here. Either way, it's indicative of the deterioration of this country, which the rising East will exploit.

If the US decides to become more militarily involved in Ukraine then why not attack Taiwan? Now the conflict becomes a two-front war. And a two-front war with very large professional militaries, not, goat herders, which beat the US, by the way. Also, for the moment both Russia and China have a key tactical and strategic advantage with deployed hypersonic weapons. That won't last forever. Such weapons render our large and very expensive CBG's irrelevant and for that matter the rest of the Navy. So, there's a window of time here. And speaking of time-frames, the US will likely not stay wokefied for much longer. The midterms will probably be a bloodbath for the demorats. Trump will win in 2024. A Trump administration will never let China take Taiwan. Of course, that's barring any continued election fraud, which is just as likely (sadly). That said, as powerful as the woke is right now, it's not going to last. Again, there's a window of time to act.
Click to expand...
China does not really "need" to take Taiwan right now nor any time soon. They can simply outwait Trump. With the path of degradation in the western world, I do not want to extrapolate a just 10 years from now on. If things move on as they have, Taiwan might voluntarily jump into Chinas arms, which would be the best outcome.
 
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