Predicitons for Democrat candidate in 2020?

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
The polling I have seen in these states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn) looks bad for Trump, not for the Democrats.
Well, you are not examining good polling. Go to RealClearPolitics. Most of the battleground state polls (where Trump trails) show Trump within 3-6 points of Biden, which is great at this point in the election cycle. Most voters do not yet realize that Biden has dementia. Only political junkies do.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
I just read an article by Jim Rickards where he arrived at the very same conclusions that I did:

But there’s no free lunch for Biden. The choice of Stacey Abrams for vice president would undoubtedly rally progressive and minority voters to turn out for Biden. That’s critical. But it helps Biden in places he is highly likely to win anyway such as California and New York.

Abrams’ ultra-leftist views and strident persona would drive away many moderates in critical swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania and possibly tip those states to Trump.
From an email, so no web link.
 

kel

Pelican
It's true an idpol-centered candidate attracts voters mostly in places dems already have locked, but more importantly it creates excitement in the dem base, which has a network effect. No one is excited for Biden, only excited for not-Trump. The excitement Trump had in 2016 is fucking gone. Bernie had a little bit of it, but it didn't push him over the line and frankly it felt kinda low-energy to me relatively speaking - Bernie fans always seemed more bitter than excited per se. So, picking someone who'd excite the base and get the chattering class chattering more could be a wise idea, even if it loses them working-class voters (a demographic not so important anymore), because it might get post-grads in Philadelphia (for example) to the polls who might not bother otherwise and turn a crucial swing state.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
The excitement Trump had in 2016 is fucking gone.
I vehemently disagree with that claim. There is an entire army of voters who did not vote for Trump in the last election (myself included), because they did not trust him or they thought that he was a closet RINO Republican or worse, who are now eager to vote for him. Those who understand politics in the U.S. understand the importance of the federal court system -- and Trump and McConnell have had incredible success there. And voters who value the U.S. Constitution know that.
 

Blade Runner

Woodpecker
No one is excited for Biden, only excited for not-Trump. The excitement Trump had in 2016 is fucking gone.
Not according to the Primary Model, which had Trump at 87% winner in its final prediction in 2016.

What's Norpoth's current prediction (originally with a caveat due to Coronavirus, until he kept following Gallup polls to make sure)?

91%.
 

perros

Woodpecker
This is not the forum for open promotion of socialist views.
Honestly I have no idea what is going to happen in the election at this point. Its a 50/50 toss up at this point for me.

History shows that an incumbent with horrible unemployment numbers and an economy in the tank usually loses. You can run a ham sandwich (Biden) against him and the ham sandwich wins. This crisis is not going well for Trump which is why he is desperate to reopen the country. Even if he reopens the country, with COVID-19 running rampant, the economy is still not going to get better either anytime soon. All he's got is 6 months till November.

Either the country rallies behind their leader in Trump or they go with the other guy, and quite frankly its looking like the latter to me every single day.

If Trump wants to win and save his presidency he should do a true bailout of the people! These are the components on what he should do.

1) Pass Medicare For All- I know conservatives for some weird reason hate giving people healthcare, but need to in this moment in time. 30 million Americans have just lost their health insurance when they lost their jobs adding to a total of 70 million Americans without health insurance in the wealthiest country in the history of the world. There are people who are hospitalized for COVID-19 receiving bills of $60,000 to $70,000 which is absurd. Anybody still defending this archaic, barbaric, for profit insurance system needs to get their heads out of their asses. If Trump really wants to be a hero and cement his legacy as modern day Republican FDR this is what he would do and finally guarantee healthcare to every American.

Whatever happened to this Trump?:



2) Cancel ALL student debt: Trump last year cancelled student debt for disabled veterans, and during this crisis has frozen student loan payments up to September and mentioned that he possibly will extend that. He should just get rid of it completely. You want to get the economy to start going again? Cancel the debt of millennials and GenZers and let them invest that money elsewhere in buying homes, cars, etc... and really get the economy going again. The Millennial generation will love you for it. I know people my age who are not even political and have student debt who said they are voting for Trump when he froze those debt payments.

3) Pass UBI: $1000 or $2000 a month, it doesn't matter, pass some form of UBI and put money into the pockets of Americans. It will help immensely, and it would not only help people during this horrible time, but it will create jobs as well since people have money to spend. Its our tax money anyway, so might as well give it to us in the form of UBI.

4) Expand Food Stamps: Trump last year cut food stamps in half which affected many communities in the south especially West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Long lines for food at food banks is unacceptable.


5) Copy Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang: There I said it. If Trump wants to win he needs to take a page out the Sanders and Yang playbook and be 2016 Donald Trump. Stop listening to the neo-cons and Goldman Sachs lackey Steve Manuchin, stop bailing out corporations, stop cozing up to Wall Street, stop bailing out insurance companies, stop giving goodies to your rich buddies in the form of tax breaks, stop listening to the lobbyists, stop being a corporate socialist, stop being corrupt. Actually GIVE A FUCK about working people who are struggling.



There is a %100 chance he does none of this, and if he doesn't do some form of the things above, there is a good chance Biden wins. Its really hard to win an election when people are struggling this bad.
 
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Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
What are you smoking? Seriously. That is a socialist platform. Trump would lose his entire base. And why would the left vote for some newfangled faux-socialist who they already hate, when they can simply vote for the real thing? I have made this statement before. Some posters on this thread know zero about politics, the political system, economics, or the American form of government -- which is to say that they are a typical American voter who gets what he deserves. Socialism did not work, so let's try even more.
 

Leonard D Neubache

Owl
Gold Member
I don't credit anyone who still believes in a political solution as being wiser than someone who believes in the "wrong" political solution.

The guy demanding full-communism and the guy demanding that DC makes America great again are both at precisely the same level of political awareness.
 
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perros

Woodpecker
What are you smoking? Seriously. That is a socialist platform. Trump would lose his entire base. And why would the left vote for some newfangled faux-socialist who they already hate, when they can simply vote for the real thing? I have made this statement before. Some posters on this thread know zero about politics, the political system, economics, or the American form of government -- which is to say that they are a typical American voter who gets what he deserves. Socialism did not work, so let's try even more.
We already have socialism in America, where have you been? We have corporate welfare and socialism for the rich. Donald Trump is the biggest socialist in the history of the country.

Examples of Trump's socialism:

1 trillion dollar tax cuts to billionaires= Socialism for the rich
Expanded Defense budget of the Military Industrial Complex and cut food stamps and Medicare= Socialism for the Rich
Bailed out Airline industry in the form of $25 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
Bailed out hospitality industry in the form of $150 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
Bailed out Oil industry in the form of $80 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
2 trillion dollars to bail out banks during COVID crisis= Socialism for the rich
Benefited himself from the 2008 bailout in upwards of $800 million dollars and built golf courses and casinos with it = Socialism for the rich


If America was a true capitalistic society as it claims, then there wouldn't be any bailing out of corporations, billionaires or banks. Lift yourself by your own bootstraps goes the saying? If it were a true capitalistic society, most of these corporations, if not all, would fail and seize to exist. "Survival of the fittest" "You are on your own". What we really have is socialism for the very rich and rugged individualism for the poor and middle class.

The American people are getting fucked in the ass. Whenever working families need something we all of a sudden have empty pockets or "we can't afford it", but seem to always pass bailouts of corporations in the form of welfare to the people on top. Give me a break. People have to wake up.



Trump would lose his entire base
To quote Donald Trump: "WRONG!!!"

Did you know that Donald Trump ran a very Bernie-esque campaign in 2016? People tend to forget that Trump had many leftist positions that were very popular among his base that damn right made him sound like Bernie Sanders. Trump ran on

-Universal Healthcare for everyone (Very leftist position)
-NOT cutting social security (Leftist position)
-NOT cutting Medicare and Medicaid (Leftist position)
-Massive infrastructure spending (Very leftist position)
-Ending TPP (Leftist position)
-Ending NAFTA (Leftist position)
-Ending the wars overseas (Leftist position)

^^^ These leftist positions didn't scare away his base, it made them love him even more.

70% of the American people are in favor of Medicare for All including 52% of Republicans.
https://pnhp.org/news/reuters-ipsos-poll-70-percent-support-medicare-for-all/

The notion that the average conservative voter doesn't like these things is simply preposterous. Conservative voters, just as much as Liberal voters want good healthcare without going bankrupt, don't want their social security, medicare or medicaid or food stamps cut, and want relief from their situation.
 

It_is_my_time

Hummingbird
Great posts perros. I am not a fan of socialism, but as you said, we already have socialism in the USA. But the version of socialism in the USA, that comes at a cost of very high taxes, pays for a military that is not allowed to protect the porous borders, bailing out billionaires when their bad investments lose money, and unlimited immigration.

Unfortunately Biden will do nothing to change this. Bernie spoke out about it and that is why the Democrats wouldn't support him. The Democrats want to win, but they are only allowed to win within a certain parameter set. That set being "Orange Man Bad" and other shameful takes you can see on CNN.

But it is good to see more and more young people realizing that the "American dream" propped up by out of control spending and asking them to pay for it is no longer a viable solution for them.
 

Tail Gunner

Hummingbird
Gold Member
We already have socialism in America, where have you been? We have corporate welfare and socialism for the rich. Donald Trump is the biggest socialist in the history of the country.

Examples of Trump's socialism:

1 trillion dollar tax cuts to billionaires= Socialism for the rich
Expanded Defense budget of the Military Industrial Complex and cut food stamps and Medicare= Socialism for the Rich
Bailed out Airline industry in the form of $25 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
Bailed out hospitality industry in the form of $150 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
Bailed out Oil industry in the form of $80 billion dollars= Socialism for the rich
2 trillion dollars to bail out banks during COVID crisis= Socialism for the rich
Benefited himself from the 2008 bailout in upwards of $800 million dollars and built golf courses and casinos with it = Socialism for the rich


If America was a true capitalistic society as it claims, then there wouldn't be any bailing out of corporations, billionaires or banks. Lift yourself by your own bootstraps goes the saying? If it were a true capitalistic society, most of these corporations, if not all, would fail and seize to exist. "Survival of the fittest" "You are on your own". What we really have is socialism for the very rich and rugged individualism for the poor and middle class.

The American people are getting fucked in the ass. Whenever working families need something we all of a sudden have empty pockets or "we can't afford it", but seem to always pass bailouts of corporations in the form of welfare to the people on top. Give me a break. People have to wake up.





To quote Donald Trump: "WRONG!!!"

Did you know that Donald Trump ran a very Bernie-esque campaign in 2016? People tend to forget that Trump had many leftist positions that were very popular among his base that damn right made him sound like Bernie Sanders. Trump ran on

-Universal Healthcare for everyone (Very leftist position)
-NOT cutting social security (Leftist position)
-NOT cutting Medicare and Medicaid (Leftist position)
-Massive infrastructure spending (Very leftist position)
-Ending TPP (Leftist position)
-Ending NAFTA (Leftist position)
-Ending the wars overseas (Leftist position)

^^^ These leftist positions didn't scare away his base, it made them love him even more.

70% of the American people are in favor of Medicare for All including 52% of Republicans.
https://pnhp.org/news/reuters-ipsos-poll-70-percent-support-medicare-for-all/

The notion that the average conservative voter doesn't like these things is simply preposterous. Conservative voters, just as much as Liberal voters want good healthcare without going bankrupt, don't want their social security, medicare or medicaid or food stamps cut, and want relief from their situation.
Fair trade and tariffs are conservative positions going back to the 19th Century. Ending wars and international entanglements is classical conservatism going back to Taft in the last century and Washington in the prior one. If warranted (and not just a political payout), there is nothing leftist about massive infrastructure repair. You are so clueless about politics and history that I may as well debate a rock.

Yes, of course the U.S. is heading in a socialist direction. In fact, I said it first -- but you missed the point: "Socialism did not work, so let's try even more."

I was not quite accurate earlier when I stated: "Some posters on this thread know zero about politics, the political system, economics, or the American form of government -- which is to say that they are a typical American voter who gets what he deserves." Now I need to add basic history and common sense to the list. Some of those in this thread complaining about the miserable state of the political process need only look in the mirror.
 

kel

Pelican
The VP candidate will be the nominee, effectively. I can't believe they're talking about Klobuchar (literally who), it's gotta be Abrahams or at least Kamala Harris. Warren could've worked once upon a time, but I think her star has faded.
 

Travesty

Crow
Gold Member
The VP candidate will be the nominee, effectively. I can't believe they're talking about Klobuchar (literally who), it's gotta be Abrahams or at least Kamala Harris. Warren could've worked once upon a time, but I think her star has faded.
It's all about Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Kloubachar relates to working class Midwesterners. A saucey black woman in charge does not.
 
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