Predictions for the 2020s

Rush87

Ostrich
RE: Prediction for the 20s

I'll meet Miley Cyrus outside an L.A Denny's and she'll offer me a blow job for a pack of cigarettes.
 

BlueMark

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

The tech industry in the West will go into stagnation and decline.

For people working in tech, things will become worse. Political correctness, egalitarianism, groupthink, and the increasing size of tech companies' work forces will make these places less desirable as workplaces.

However, there will not be a new crop of new and successful tech companies with great culture. Just look at all the copycat startups in Silicon Valley today.

There will still be pockets of innovation: AI, VR/AR, robotics, crypto, etc. The dysfunctionalities of American society will make it difficult for them to become impactful on a broad scale and thus achieve financial success. American infrastructure will continue to fall behind that of Asia.
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

We are entering a very interesting decade, and I'll be back with a prediction just need a little more time to think about it. I believe that since the 2010s overall were pretty boring except for the foothold of smartphones/social media and thus travel, and their implications for the time being, they really are just a boring springboard for something that's really going to go down in the next 6 years.
 

Johnnyvee

Pelican
RE: Prediction for the 20s

911 said:
Johnnyvee said:
....

I think this is the crucial trend that will effect the next decade. The planet cannot tolerate a Chinese/Indian middle class in the 100+ millions range. Something will have to give somewhere.

I don`t know how or when it will happen, but there will be some "correction" of the global population at some point. Whether disease, famine, global warming/rising sea levels (Hate to mention it, but it could happen, and conservatives have all the best solutions in fact. We should maybe change our tune on that issue.) Maybe it`s a combination of these things, but something will have to be adjusted at some point. And it would not surprise me if this starts within the next decade.

War is another possibility, but I think that is unlikely. Westerners will probably just continue with this meaningless electric bicycle, windmills, self-hating BS, instead of dealing with things like global free trade, which I see as the number one problem. (The EU "environmentalist" sure love global free trade though.)
"The planet" doesn't care, the earth's carrying capacity is well over 20 billion people. Food production is not an issue, it is perfectly scalable. Total land devoted to agriculture has actually shrunk as demand for food and meat is exploding with nearly a billion new consumers in China and elsewhere.

War is definitely a possibility, not so much with China, whose leaders are smart and not impulsive. They know that all they need to dominate as the new global superpower is to keep things as they are, keep growing at 5%-7% annually for the next decade or two.

China is like a teenage brontosaurus that is already slightly bigger than the T-rex that is the militarily overextended USA. In a decade, that brotosaurus will be twice the size of the T-rex and will dominate its territory.

India on the other hand could very well get into a big war against Pakistan, with nuclear escalation unlikely but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Strangely enough, the CCP is a less volatile and less easy to manipulate than the Indian democratically elected leadership, where a compromised or an impulsive president could mishandle brinksmanship and edge his country into a war.
I have to disagree that the planet can take as many as 20 billion humans. There are indications that 8 billion are way too many also. Remember that prior to civilization, there where probably never a population greater than one million (including all species of hominids) on the planet. This has now ballooned out to the absurd number we see today.

This has happened at such an insane pace that you would expect to see some delay in a potential backlash. Possible global warming, general pollution, reduced biodiversity, depletion of resources, poor human health due to an increasingly novel diet. (i.e. modern agriculture) We might need less space for agriculture, but that`s due to crappier and crappier food production, and the ensuing obesity and autoimmune epidemic etc. Grassfed meat production can be a saviour here, but not with 8 billion people on the planet.

I`m not pushing some "Gaia-mother nature will strike back" crap here. I just think there will be major consequences of this overcrowding. And China and India are the biggest problems.
 

Kona

Crow
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

Polynesians will rise up. The land stolen from us will be returned and a sovereign Hawaii Nation will be formed.

Cars will fly and roads will be unnecessary. Busch woll start selling 27 ounce cans and forgo the 25s.

Aloha!
 

BlueMark

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

Johnnyvee said:
I have to disagree that the planet can take as many as 20 billion humans. There are indications that 8 billion are way too many also. Remember that prior to civilization, there where probably never a population greater than one million (including all species of hominids) on the planet. This has now ballooned out to the absurd number we see today.

This has happened at such an insane pace that you would expect to see some delay in a potential backlash. Possible global warming, general pollution, reduced biodiversity, depletion of resources, poor human health due to an increasingly novel diet. (i.e. modern agriculture) We might need less space for agriculture, but that`s due to crappier and crappier food production, and the ensuing obesity and autoimmune epidemic etc. Grassfed meat production can be a saviour here, but not with 8 billion people on the planet.

I`m not pushing some "Gaia-mother nature will strike back" crap here. I just think there will be major consequences of this overcrowding. And China and India are the biggest problems.
China's middle class has already achieved a level of wealth that has caused birthrates to drop below replacement. See what's happening in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore to get an idea of how it will play out in China. China will not continue to grow in population.

India's population will overtake China's in this century. India still has a per-capita GDP of a poor developing country, while China's GDP is already at a middle income level like Malaysia or Mexico. I would keep a bigger eye on India than on China when it comes to demographic, environmental, and agricultural issues.

If East Asia and the West just maintain replacement birthrates or less, the population problem (if there is one) can be corrected over time. It's the poor developing countries that are breeding like rabbits and polluting the air and oceans.
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

RawGod said:
The elite media and liberal establishment will so completely lose their remaining credibility that it just won't be necessary to "red pill" anyone; everyone will know that the surface we are presented with is a lie. We're almost there. This is a state analogous to the late Soviet Union.
Check out "The Sovereign Individual"
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

I think proxy wars between US and China is happening in the 20's. US wants to block China's growth and China is reaching for hegemony in Asia. It will be China, Russia, NK, Iran versus everyone else. Neighbouring states will choose to be vassals for the US and pay a severe economic price from China. This leads to my prediction for Australia.

Australia will choose security over prosperity by being cannon fodder for US and lose its biggest customer, China. They will get their needs met by other countries, mainly in Africa and Australia will fall into a steep economic decline. AUD will drop to $0.50 and property price will drop to half of what it is today, maybe less. Australia is fucked but it's been a long time coming.

By the end of 20's China et al has reached parity with US and the latter needs to rely on the coalition of countries to gain advantage.
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

911 said:
Rorogue said:
If you're a hetero Male, or white, you'd better build a spiritual life, because you will have less room to maneuver in the physical realm (in the west). Appreciate the quaint, small things, and work on steady personal improvement.
If that steady personal improvement doesn't culminate in the establishment of a family around you, that improvement will only be marginal.

Being fit, financially in a good place and in a place of abundance with women >>>> overweight, married to a heffer who hates you with kids and savings that may he taken away from you. In my opinion.
 

nek

Pelican
RE: Prediction for the 20s

BlueMark said:
The tech industry in the West will go into stagnation and decline.

For people working in tech, things will become worse. Political correctness, egalitarianism, groupthink, and the increasing size of tech companies' work forces will make these places less desirable as workplaces.

However, there will not be a new crop of new and successful tech companies with great culture. Just look at all the copycat startups in Silicon Valley today.

There will still be pockets of innovation: AI, VR/AR, robotics, crypto, etc. The dysfunctionalities of American society will make it difficult for them to become impactful on a broad scale and thus achieve financial success. American infrastructure will continue to fall behind that of Asia.
You addressed a concern of mine with tech, innovation, large companies in general. Merit is falling to the wayside in favor of political correctness, and the inmates are now able to run the asylum. They'll tear down institutions, not build any themselves, and then complain when there are rolling internet blackouts due to incompetent people in position to maintain the infrastructure.
 

nek

Pelican
RE: Prediction for the 20s

1) The China situation highlights a prediction of mine....more authoritarian major nations will rise where democracies will further decline. People are inherently emotional, short-sighted, selfish, and lack critical thinking, yet in democracies, these are the people that have a say in how the nation will be run and plan for the future. Authoritarian regimes can better plan for resource allocation, environmental needs, and social cohesion.

2) I think drug/alcohol/prescription med usage will sky-rocket in the west, as well as pet sales. GenY, Millenials, will be entering middle age like unmoored vessels that spent the last decades not really doing much. Working, but otherwise just kind of hanging out, not understanding that traveling to every instagram hot-spot hasn't made them more well-rounded and fulfilled as people. People will realize the folly of their choices and it will be too little too late.

It's a fascinating time, the world is connected, information is all over the place, and materially/technologically life has never been easier for people.
 

Thot Leader

Kingfisher
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

Trash economy. The abundance of trash. What are we gonna do with it? Are we gonna put it on an island? Are we gonna make it somebody else’s problem? Or are we going to take the initiative, and take this problem by the horns? Trash economy. You use cubes of trash as money. Everybody becomes rich, it’s a gold rush.

Walk with me. Most of the major cities will be replaced with vast pleasure domes, used exclusively by the excelceites, who are the neo-upperclass. While the displaced hoards of lower-class depth-grobblers will live underground in tiered cities, endlessly toiling away for nuggets of neo-plasmin.

Video games are going to get more realistic.

Super fuel-efficient vehicles getting 80, 100 miles per gallon? It’s not that crazy. You think I’m nuts right now for suggesting something high tech like that? [Looks at person in crowd who shakes head] Flip side of that coin, gas, 10 dollars a gallon. [Flips out and air kicks a couple times in anger] You can’t win them all, but we can make do, cuz we’re gonna have solar power also.

Race riots. Extreme racial tension and unrest. Uh… it’s called the knockout game, and eventually white people are gonna get tired of playing it. That’s all I’m saying.

A new… ah skip that one. Um… oh yeah, got two minutes left, okay. Playing games with me, huh? Can we get the original 18 minutes back on here…? You caught me. I’m unprepared.

Now, 2070. Due to the massive birth increase, we’re gonna have a shortage of milk. What this means is, the neo-earth-good-government-league is gonna have to genetically modify all humans, male and female, to lactate once a month. Once every month, you’re gonna be going to a lactation processing center where they’ll hook ya up to all kinds of weird things. Uh, now, due to some fluke, about 3% of the population produces milk, uh, about 500% as much milk. So they’re gonna have to be farmed constantly. And it’s very painful, but they’re gonna be rounded up by FEMA and their milk will serve the greater good.

Guys, what’s the one problem right now that’s not gonna be around in 2070? The elderly and the disabled. Cuz we’re just GONNA KILL EM! WE’RE JUST GONNA KILL EM!

So we looked at the data. Uhh, we got robots policing the streets, 2070, we got gay marriage. Surprise, surprise, bigots! Okay? Sorry, in 2070, gay people are gonna be allowed to get married. Get used to it.

Make me sick sometimes.

Sodastream will do for soda what 3D printing did for assault rifles.

And I think you’re gonna be seeing a whole lot more of these great Apple products. The iMac.

You’re probably thinking this is some pretty deep stuff, and you’re right.

State enforced homosexuality. I don’t have a problem with that, it’s equal.

Facebook as your birth certificate.

Mac iPads built into every school desk of every child.

3D printers are kid’s toys, and the newest 3D printer your kid is gonna be printing up 3D Muslim barbie dolls.

2070, gay men have actually developed reproductive organs inside of their… area… and a new generation of children are born from inside gay men.

Uh, what else we got here…
 

BBinger

Kingfisher
RE: Prediction for the 20s

I think proxy wars between US and China is happening in the 20's. US wants to block China's growth and China is reaching for hegemony in Asia. It will be China, Russia, NK, Iran versus everyone else. Neighbouring states will choose to be vassals for the US and pay a severe economic price from China. This leads to my prediction for Australia.

Australia will choose security over prosperity by being cannon fodder for US and lose its biggest customer, China. They will get their needs met by other countries, mainly in Africa and Australia will fall into a steep economic decline. AUD will drop to $0.50 and property price will drop to half of what it is today, maybe less. Australia is fucked but it's been a long time coming.

By the end of 20's China et al has reached parity with US and the latter needs to rely on the coalition of countries to gain advantage.
I suspect the US is going to be unsuccessful drawing its current vassal states into any future adventures. China, Russia, Iran, NATO ally Turkey, et al don't seek a counter to the present US alliances instead encouraging neutrality and framing any conflicts that emerge as defensive. Advances in missile technology swing the advantage in war back to the defensive preventing any 2003 style "shock and awe" US victories on the offense. US decline in influence on the international stage continues while resentments start to unwind EU integration.
 

Aquarius

Woodpecker
RE: Prediction for the 20s

In light of the civil unrest in Hong Kong, let me give my 2-cents on Hong Kong:

Hong Kong will definitely bounce back and become a normal, uneventful city in no time, but this normal will be a new normal.

In terms of political rights, amount of democracy, and level personal liberties, I see little to no change from current.

In terms of governance, I expect the CCP Liaison Office's importance will be elevated in the short run and most definitely have more capable officials for next decade. They will have a hands on approach to gauging general public opinion and using that information to give more direct orders to the HK government.

The SAR status will most likely remain unchanged. The Hong Kong passport, the HKD, the common law, English language etc. will all stay.

In the long run, I see Hong Kong gradually fade away from being a top tier global metropolis in terms of economic importance on the global stage. By the 2030s, gone will be the days of it being the undisputed #3 financial hub in the world. Nor will it wither away, the new normal will have it trending towards and eventually converging with current-day Taipei in terms of international stature, expat community, and economic dynamism. It will still be a major Asia-Pacific financial center, but in the way that Taipei to this day is still a major Asia-Pacific tech hub.

That is, I predict the seeds being sown for Hong Kong to retreat from the spotlight into being a decent second tier city on the global stage, and accompanying steady/stable but large scale exodus of expats. However, it will remain bustling, vibrant, and first world just like current-day Taipei is.
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

RIslander said:
American women will get fatter, more tatted, and shittier.
I'm fairly certain tattoos are on the decline. Tats really blew up beginning with the infamous tramp stamp of the late 90s, early 2000s, but I'd be very surprised if tattoos were still a growing trend. It seems women are striving more for the svelte yoga pants/crop top look now versus the tatted, "bad girl in the club" look of the 2000s. I also honestly don't think Western women are actually getting fatter, at least not under 30s. Women are always upping the ante in terms of their looks, and thanks to yoga pants and endless "athleisure" everywhere, I don't see any less pressure to be fit. The Fat Acceptance movement is just coming from the same delusional fatties that always existed, and the left is so desperate for victim castes that they're willing to indulge obesity, or any lack of personal responsibility, as some sort of modern civil rights movement. I highly doubt any thin women have any delusions that getting fat isn't going to dramatically lower their SMV, they only "support" this crap because they love sabotaging other women. The women I see out and about now are hotter than ever, but that could also be a combination of my age and things like Spanx blurring my perception. Attitudes are of course worse than ever, but there is no reversal in sight on that end.
 

BlueMark

Woodpecker
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

nek said:
BlueMark said:
The tech industry in the West will go into stagnation and decline.

For people working in tech, things will become worse. Political correctness, egalitarianism, groupthink, and the increasing size of tech companies' work forces will make these places less desirable as workplaces.

However, there will not be a new crop of new and successful tech companies with great culture. Just look at all the copycat startups in Silicon Valley today.

There will still be pockets of innovation: AI, VR/AR, robotics, crypto, etc. The dysfunctionalities of American society will make it difficult for them to become impactful on a broad scale and thus achieve financial success. American infrastructure will continue to fall behind that of Asia.
You addressed a concern of mine with tech, innovation, large companies in general. Merit is falling to the wayside in favor of political correctness, and the inmates are now able to run the asylum. They'll tear down institutions, not build any themselves, and then complain when there are rolling internet blackouts due to incompetent people in position to maintain the infrastructure.
I consider political correctness and SJWism a symptom of the size of the tech giants. Companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook were still somewhat innovative 10 years ago. Today, not so much. Most of the work that goes into their technology is incremental. Yet these companies kept hiring more people and now have workforces several times larger than 10 years ago.

At some point, these companies' success drew in a different type of personality than those who built the original technology that made these companies successful. People who are of a lower average skill level, especially those who went into the tech sector for the money and not because they were genuinely driven to do good work on technology. As these companies turned into bloated corporate bureaucracies, groupthink became more prevalent, and there was no longer much room to challenge the status quo in favor of true innovation. Instead, we get gimmicks like the Macbook TouchBar or constant Gmail/Youtube/Maps UI redesigns that cater to the lowest common denominator of consumers.

The focus on political correctness is just part of the groupthink, and also probably fomented by the lower status and less capable members of these companies, who still want to feel important and justify their position by taking a stance of moral superiority.

The "rolling internet blackouts" that you speak of do happen. We've seen outages with Google Cloud, Facebook, and Twitter in recent months. I don't think this is due to the death of meritocracy and the increase in incompetent people (both of which are real phenomena), but rather due to the sheer complexity of the systems that are being built to transport massive amounts of data. The obsessive focus on big data is another symptom of the decline of the tech sector and its lack of genuine innovation.

Expanding on my earlier predictions about the tech industry:

1. FAANG will lose their luster to many job seekers once people realize that they are no longer the luxurious workplaces of the past. People will still want to work there due to better pay and benefits compared to other companies. There will be a lot more stress due to the politics and increased overhead of bigger companies.

2. The quality of life for tech workers in the USA will also go down, as it has in the past decade. The major tech hubs in SF, LA, NYC, and Seattle all have problems with traffic and homeless people. Commutes will be longer and more soul-sucking, or in the case of NYC, less reliable and with more crazy people yelling at you. Self-driving cars will not arrive soon enough to save the day. A major recession might improve the commute times for those who are lucky enough to keep their jobs.

3. VR will be big. This will likely be the next big tech innovation for Silicon Valley and FAANG, although it will not stop their decline. But VR will have minimal use outside of porn and video games as more young men lose themselves in virtual worlds while western society slides further into cultural nihilism. Best case, it will be used in nice-to-have areas such as Maps StreetView or viewing a house on AirBnB or Zillow. There will be little improvement to what happens in real life for the average person.

4. Silicon Valley will lose much of its relevance as the above trends unfold, and there will not be any new unicorn startups that turn into the next Google or Facebook. The sad reality of the startup ecosystem in 2019 is that it is still better financially to work at FAANG instead of a startup, if you're not a founder. With sky-high housing costs and the closing of TechShop and Maker Faire, the traditional Silicon Valley culture of building-tech-in-your-garage is dead.

5. There will be a continued shift in tech innovation away from Silicon Valley and the rest of the US, and toward Asia. Technology already has a much greater beneficial impact on quality of life in Asia versus USA. This gap will continue to grow. This is happening in several areas:
- consumer tech: China produces drones and DIY tech, while SV is trying to find new ways of monetizing people spending time on the internet and on their phones
- industrial tech: East Asian factories use robotic assembly lines, while the US depends on cheap imported labor and outsourcing of manufacturing.
- service tech: Restaurants in Japan let you use tablets to order sushi, and then deliver your order on a toy bullet train. This tech has existed for at least a decade. US restaurants are only starting to get into automation, while diners are expected to tip 20% or more just for a waiter doing his job.
- public transportation: China has maglev, Japan is developing linear Shinkansen and self-driving trains. In the US, self-driving car tech is much harder to get right, while the rail infrastructure remains third-world despite spending several times as much per mile/km compared to other developed countries.
 

Aquarius

Woodpecker
RE: Prediction for the 20s

For the rest of the world, I'll keep it short and simple:

1. South Africa will undergo civil unrest. There will be attempts to seize the companies of whites, demands to fire all whites from their jobs, and seize the homes of whites. Terrorist attacks on private schools or Afrikaans public schools will possibly occur, so will attacks against businesses and venues with a mostly white clientele. Indians and Asians won't bear the brunt of the actual hatred, but they will be just as caught up in all of this. However, lots of young Afrikaner men own a shotgun and an offroad-capable pickup truck, while lots of Afrikaner boomers have extensive military training. This could easily escalate into armed conflict.

2. Eastern and Western Europe will further close the gap economically. Before, the difference between Germany and Poland was like the US and Mexico. By 2030? It will be like the difference between New York (Germany) and North Carolina (Poland). The EU will still exist but individual countries will devise its own agenda in economic, immigration, and geopolitical policy, like Turkey's relationship with NATO. The Schengen zone will for all intents and purposes fall apart, leaving the EU an ASEAN-like entity. The Euro will stay, but I see the Southern European countries opt out, leaving the Euro in core Western Europe and statelets in Eastern Europe. Hungary, Italy, and a few others will likely break with the West the way and on the scale which Turkey did.

General European-American relations will cool down a notch while European-Russian relations will warm up a notch.

3. Latin America overall will be pretty quiet. There will be general economic stagnation. Venezuela will recover but it will resemble a mixture of Cuba and Honduras with Peru's economic prosperity.

4. The US will start seeing a permanent Democrat majority at the national level. Georgia and Texas will be solidly purple, while North Carolina will be blue and become the second Virginia. Florida will flip blue as its massive white boomer retiree population starts dying off.

In terms of cities and their statures: Dallas-Fort Worth will be the star of the 2020s. By 2030, it will have established itself as a well known major global city just behind Chicago in population and economic stature. The runner ups will be Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham: Charlotte specifically will graduate into major city status while Raleigh-Durham will become the next Austin minus the tourism. Houston and Nashville will probably cool off. Detroit will start growing slowly again. Middle class Californians and New Yorkers will continue to flee their states, turning Blue Dots in Red States even bluer.

The splits that The Black Knight is talking about could be more at the county level than state level: Counties will start doing things their own way irrespective of federal or state politics and regulation. It will be similar to the EU in that sense.

Conservative millennials and Gen Z will probably move into the suburbs and continue retrofitting them to be more young people-friendly, high density, and walkable

5. Russia will be the wild card here. Putin will definitely retire by 2024 after ruling the country for 24 years. But I think post-Putin Russia will take strides in being business friendly and transparent. There could even be an economic boom as the Soviet mentality starts dying off with the Russian boomers. Both the amount of expats and tourists in Moscow and St. Petersburg from the West will likely surge close to 2030.
 

El Chinito loco

Crow
Gold Member
RE: Prediction for the 20s

2020 is interesting but here are my predictions:

No major collapses or black swan events. There's too much at risk to make that happen just yet. Maybe in 2050 but not right now..

America will undergo a revitaliz--..just kidding. It will be business as usual.

Jews in charge and stupid people following orders. Maybe more major shootings and major Mossad sex trafficking uncovered but that's all good in the US of A where everything is possible.

The population ignorant and watching cool beans tv shows and shopping for shiny objects on the internet.

Demographics will continue to flip. Trump was the last chance for whites in America. Everything is brown latino and mostly Mexican from here on out.

Castizos in Mexico and central America pop open insane bottles of expensive champagne over the next decade to celebrate incredible victories over dumb gringos.


We will see war in Iran or some adjacent proxy war at some point. Get ready to die for Israel or prepare your relatives to make the ultimate sacrifice for your masters.
 
RE: Prediction for the 20s

Fascinating thread that really makes you think, and want to plan your life for the coming tough years.
 
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