Predictions for the 2020s

Foolsgo1d

Peacock
Johnnyvee said:
Interesting little article on the possible "new" economics of the new decade.

"...The latest in the IMF papers argue that tools are available to allow central banks to create deep negative rates whenever needed to reverse recessions…"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...-rates-as-the-next-tool/#.XVFtud-kaCc.twitter

I wonder what will happen to gold and maybe bitcoin if this becomes a widely used Government tool. Looks more and more like Soviet central planning if you ask me!

Think of it as desperate measures. They probably had some smart people do the predictions and ran some models. All of them probably showed absolute chaos financially because of the vast quantities of injected money and debt fuelled by natural human greed and stupidity.

I dont know how negative rates and reverse a recession because that is unknown territory, even for the experts. You're just trying to push the can down the road and not solve the real problems themselves.
 

Johnnyvee

Pelican
Foolsgo1d said:
Johnnyvee said:
Interesting little article on the possible "new" economics of the new decade.

"...The latest in the IMF papers argue that tools are available to allow central banks to create deep negative rates whenever needed to reverse recessions…"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...-rates-as-the-next-tool/#.XVFtud-kaCc.twitter

I wonder what will happen to gold and maybe bitcoin if this becomes a widely used Government tool. Looks more and more like Soviet central planning if you ask me!

Think of it as desperate measures. They probably had some smart people do the predictions and ran some models. All of them probably showed absolute chaos financially because of the vast quantities of injected money and debt fuelled by natural human greed and stupidity.

I dont know how negative rates and reverse a recession because that is unknown territory, even for the experts. You're just trying to push the can down the road and not solve the real problems themselves.
I think a "recession" would be just what the world needs right now. It would mean less spending and consumption basically. But it would only work for the better in the long term if you restored a sounder economy, with the market regulating interest rates and sound money.

Imagine a world with low tax, high interest and no inflation! Where you could actually work and save your way to a sound financial situation. That was once reality, now it seems like a crazy dream.
 
I just posted this in another thread, but the Fed has done studies and has stated as recently as 2011 that they believe that negative rates would spur hoarding of money (of course, why wouldn't it!?) and not be a good policy move. It is amazing that the idiot ECB or IMF would think that charging people to hold money also would cause them to spend it, just because it's on hand.

Those mattresses will be very firm, very soon.
 

kruger41

Pigeon
Syberpunk said:

I'm guessing my keto diet will be finished!

Speaking generally, what would you consider a good primer on the Grand Solar Minimum? I only know about it in vague conceptual terms.
 

beta_plus

Pelican
This is what Peter Zeiahn does

Peter Zeihan is amazing for this stuff.

His four basic predictions for the next 20 years are:

1) The USA will withdraw from most of the world, due to delayed adjustments for the end of the cold war and fracking. We no longer need to be in most of the Eastern and Southern hemispheres.

What happens because of this?

2) Russia goes to war with Europe in order to secure its borders

3) Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war with each other in the Persian Gulf. It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia probably has the ability to buy nukes from Pakistan.

4) Japan, China, and Korea go to war over shipping lanes in East Asia. China will probably lose due to its geography.



He avoids talking about the race question in the USA. The question he does not address is will the USA leave the world in an organized way, or will a race based Civil War cause the US Navy to implode. Keep in mind Russia has been trying to spark one in the USA for at least 50 years to do precisely that.

As well, his mentor George Friedman is worth reading as well.
 

AntoniusofEfa

Woodpecker
^ I cannot take this Peter guy seriously. What's up with the tie and shirt combo?

The US will never leave any place, as the US is by large the biggest initiator of wars, as well as the largest weapons manufacturer and dealer worldwide. The US economy feeds on wars.
 

Syberpunk

Pelican
Gold Member
kruger41 said:
Syberpunk said:

I'm guessing my keto diet will be finished!

Speaking generally, what would you consider a good primer on the Grand Solar Minimum? I only know about it in vague conceptual terms.
There are 2 books by John Casey, there is Ice Age Farmer, Oppenheimer Ranch, Adapt 2030.

From Jan 2018:

 

Hell_Is_Like_Newark

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Debt crisis and the end to the very low interest rates we have today:


Boomers who have been net investors will be "cashing out" to fund their retirement. My generation (Gen X) is too few in number to replace the Boomer investment.

Retired Boomers will finally kill Medicare (which except for a few years always ran a deficit) and Social Security (went cash flow negative in 2010). The government will have two avenues of default: Not paying what is promised or printing so many dollars that the debt is inflated away (whilst gaming the cost of living increase well below the actual inflation rate).

Multiple states will default on their pension obligations. NJ pension run out of $$$ starting in 2021. The first to default will be between IL, NJ, CT, RI.
 

kruger41

Pigeon
Syberpunk said:
kruger41 said:
Syberpunk said:

I'm guessing my keto diet will be finished!

Speaking generally, what would you consider a good primer on the Grand Solar Minimum? I only know about it in vague conceptual terms.
There are 2 books by John Casey, there is Ice Age Farmer, Oppenheimer Ranch, Adapt 2030.

From Jan 2018:

Hey, thank you my dude, I appreciate it.

So, the basic takeaway is that AGW is a scam, that the world isn't warming up, it is actually cooling due to reduced solar activity, which regularly occurs every few hundred years. Following this train of thought, cooling global climates will prompt poorer growing conditions for industrial agriculture, leading to massively higher food prices and shortages of basic staples. Mass migrations, famines, civil unrest, economic calamity, and warfare to follow?

Nothing I disagree with. At least the next 20 years won't be boring.
 

Johnnyvee

Pelican
Kid Twist said:
I just posted this in another thread, but the Fed has done studies and has stated as recently as 2011 that they believe that negative rates would spur hoarding of money (of course, why wouldn't it!?) and not be a good policy move. It is amazing that the idiot ECB or IMF would think that charging people to hold money also would cause them to spend it, just because it's on hand.

Those mattresses will be very firm, very soon.
It`s an interesting point, but what if you have a cashless society? (Not unlikely within a few years) So you have to keep your money on your negative rate account, or spend as soon as possible. I guess that might be very bullish for equities, and possibly gold and even bitcoin. I`m very unsure how that would play out though. Most people are not investors after all.
 

brando

Sparrow
Cashless society on one hand hurts the illegals who work under the table, which in a way doesn’t mean too much because those are really the kind of jobs Americans will not do.

On the other you no longer can hide how you spend your money from the big banks, financial intermediaries totally in bed with globohomo like PayPal. Spending and donations that are not media approved will cause your future social credit score to rank.

Cashless is the next step in demoralization, it’s completely done out of convenience and the majority of us are guilty of forsaking the freedom and privacy of cash transactions to save time. It all ties in with the ascendancy of online juggernauts like amazon. A totally enforced cashless society will be interesting to see in the next decade. Imagine all the people who saved loads of cash in their couches and mattresses only to be mandated to turn it all in for pennies on the dollar or worse because market speculators deemed it so.
 
Kid Twist said:
I said that I'd come back and give my proper predictions, so here goes:

1. I have said it before, but I'm totally with Syberpunk on global warming being clearly shown the hoax that it is, without a doubt by 2032. The world will be clearly cooling even in just 5 years time, but denial or reality will continue, just because of the cultural degeneracy and drones that can't give up their propagandized minds, having lost faith in God and not willing to let go of this substituted religion.

2. Barring economic/market collapse, Donald Trump will be re-elected, and the world will continue to de-globalize. The problem is that the debt is unsustainable, no one trusts institutions (rightly so, which provides problems yet a springboard for the future), and even Mr. Trump (in just 8 years) can't turn back how America sold out its people over several decades to the business class for cheap labor and technological dreams, which are now nightmares. How he reacts to the bubbles finally bursting will be telling about which way America goes. I have said for over 2 years the collapse is 2024 +- 1 year, with a chance of an early shockwave which I set at 2021-22, and a shorter term backbreaker within 4-5 years of that (dual breakdown of low cycles after such a long "bull run"). In the case of focusing on 2024, if nothing happens till then, despite all of the experts lamenting the QE run for so long, the Democrat Socialist idiot elected will certainly take the market and business class down for the count. This will usher in a time of boomer stress and voting for the "free" stuff because they don't see any way out, and they have been spoiled for so long. The youngsters don't know any better and never have had that much to look into, so they won't break meaningfully against it. Fracturing of the US could happen, but I'm not predicting it, though it would probably be the right decision, especially if there would be a peaceful option.

3. Challenging the propaganda fed to prior generations, younger people will continue to be red pill more and more because of black pill realities and the job(less) market they are staring into. Especially when the corporate credit bubble finalizes (see above). A lot of outspoken women and gays will try to retain power, but without other people funding them, they'll die down as lines are drawn and communities are more distinct. This will still be mostly internet based though, as opposed to corporate influence, which will still be blue pill and "only bugmen allowed" if you aren't a red pill entrepreneur who has been able to exit the "system."

4. The sports bubble will also relatively collapse. Streaming and pirating will increase, making cable subscriptions fall even more. Leagues won't be able to command the insane contracts, providers will not be able to justify them without the con job of bundled payments. Going to games increasingly becomes just corporate beer drinking background entertainment. The natural progression will be back to the large audience and viewership of the main networks (who already provide several national games for free) who are the only ones that can justify such a platform. Salaries, as a result of the lack of solvency and competition between networks, which have been the biggest boon (by far) to leagues, will drop dramatically. Players will complain, and we will laugh about how their platform of woke social commentary also goes broke. The NBA will be hit the hardest, then NFL (will do the best, but relatively the hardest for all of the general thought of its primacy), then MLB, finally hockey.

5. Drugs will be increasing in society, and alcohol (if thats possible), to distract from the lack of opportunity and fulfillment in economic and family activity which has been crushed for decades. I have said before, and say again, that a natural check on males through history was war (sad to say) and the requirement of them to defend from invasion, stave off plague, and produce to counteract famine. Since medical technology has saved so many births, plentiful food has led to fat asses all around, and there are so many men --- which ruins women and leaves society irreparably harmed due to uncontrolled deference to women economically and sexually --- the natural outcome is the sad one of exiting society (death) through drugs, video games, VR, porn, technology, etc. Of course, this is a spiritual death but there are always inputs and complexities of the spiritual and material realms.

If I think of any more, I'll add some, but for now this will suffice.
2024 is when the baby boomers social security and Medicare entitlements become the entire national budget. It won’t be good.
 

911

Peacock
Gold Member
Gold would replace cash in a cashless society. I guess there would be some controls in place to ban or tax gold, but there will be some hoarding nevertheless.

As to the solar minimum, it won't be anywhere near as dramatic as it's being portrayed, just a stage with cooler weather, comparable to what we went through in the 1960s-70s. The doomer narrative there is just as short-sighted as the warmist one.
 
Kid Twist said:
I just posted this in another thread, but the Fed has done studies and has stated as recently as 2011 that they believe that negative rates would spur hoarding of money (of course, why wouldn't it!?) and not be a good policy move. It is amazing that the idiot ECB or IMF would think that charging people to hold money also would cause them to spend it, just because it's on hand.

Those mattresses will be very firm, very soon.
Didn’t Germany already try to tax safety deposit boxes to prevent people from holding cash to avoid negative interest? Either way, inflation = theft. Every time any central bank buys financial assets thru money printing leads to inflation of the money supply and ultimately theft of savings.
 
911 said:
Gold would replace cash in a cashless society. I guess there would be some controls in place to ban or tax gold, but there will be some hoarding nevertheless.

As to the solar minimum, it won't be anywhere near as dramatic as it's being portrayed, just a stage with cooler weather, comparable to what we went through in the 1960s-70s. The doomer narrative there is just as short-sighted as the warmist one.
I agree with this, but what we are talking about here is that decreasing food supplies and energy required for it (growth, shipping, etc) will just be another factor in making life more about survival than convenience and ease. I don't see a doom narrative, just one of another 20 factors not helping the average spoiled western citizen and emigre. Big picture, the tradeoff will be good if people embrace God and repent, as opposed to going into a state of despair and drug use.
 
I foresee the US beginning to fracture along racial and religious (leftism is a religion) lines.

Florida and the southwest will go various forms of hispanic. (green)
The south will go black (black)
The east coast and northern midwest will go leftist white (pink)
The west coast will go Asian / leftist white (yellow)
What's left will be white America.
 

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Teedub

Crow
Gold Member
I unfortunately get the impression that a lot of posts in this thread are either wish lists or internet-typical nihilistic doom mongering. Others totally lucid and genuine predictions, of course.
 
Another thing I foresee is that no one is going to give a fuck about anyone other than their own family and core friends. It's the perfect solution for catered to minorities. It's not racist to not care about them if you don't care about anyone.
 
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