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Predictions for the 2020s
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<blockquote data-quote="Aquarius" data-source="post: 1272751" data-attributes="member: 12359"><p><strong>RE: Prediction for the 20s</strong></p><p></p><p>In light of the civil unrest in Hong Kong, let me give my 2-cents on Hong Kong: </p><p></p><p>Hong Kong will definitely bounce back and become a normal, uneventful city in no time, but this normal will be a new normal. </p><p></p><p>In terms of political rights, amount of democracy, and level personal liberties, I see little to no change from current. </p><p></p><p>In terms of governance, I expect the CCP Liaison Office's importance will be elevated in the short run and most definitely have more capable officials for next decade. They will have a hands on approach to gauging general public opinion and using that information to give more direct orders to the HK government. </p><p></p><p>The SAR status will most likely remain unchanged. The Hong Kong passport, the HKD, the common law, English language etc. will all stay. </p><p></p><p>In the long run, I see Hong Kong gradually fade away from being a top tier global metropolis in terms of economic importance on the global stage. By the 2030s, gone will be the days of it being the undisputed #3 financial hub in the world. Nor will it wither away, the new normal will have it trending towards and eventually converging with current-day Taipei in terms of international stature, expat community, and economic dynamism. It will still be a major Asia-Pacific financial center, but in the way that Taipei to this day is still a major Asia-Pacific tech hub. </p><p></p><p>That is, I predict the seeds being sown for Hong Kong to retreat from the spotlight into being a decent second tier city on the global stage, and accompanying steady/stable but large scale exodus of expats. However, it will remain bustling, vibrant, and first world just like current-day Taipei is.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Aquarius, post: 1272751, member: 12359"] [b]RE: Prediction for the 20s[/b] In light of the civil unrest in Hong Kong, let me give my 2-cents on Hong Kong: Hong Kong will definitely bounce back and become a normal, uneventful city in no time, but this normal will be a new normal. In terms of political rights, amount of democracy, and level personal liberties, I see little to no change from current. In terms of governance, I expect the CCP Liaison Office's importance will be elevated in the short run and most definitely have more capable officials for next decade. They will have a hands on approach to gauging general public opinion and using that information to give more direct orders to the HK government. The SAR status will most likely remain unchanged. The Hong Kong passport, the HKD, the common law, English language etc. will all stay. In the long run, I see Hong Kong gradually fade away from being a top tier global metropolis in terms of economic importance on the global stage. By the 2030s, gone will be the days of it being the undisputed #3 financial hub in the world. Nor will it wither away, the new normal will have it trending towards and eventually converging with current-day Taipei in terms of international stature, expat community, and economic dynamism. It will still be a major Asia-Pacific financial center, but in the way that Taipei to this day is still a major Asia-Pacific tech hub. That is, I predict the seeds being sown for Hong Kong to retreat from the spotlight into being a decent second tier city on the global stage, and accompanying steady/stable but large scale exodus of expats. However, it will remain bustling, vibrant, and first world just like current-day Taipei is. [/QUOTE]
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