Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates & The Fed

You can't sell your business or sell your real estate when no one is buying. Yes people could do that now, at least on the real estate side. The people who own those downtown businesses can't sell their coffee shop for good money, they have already lost value due to lockdown.

Yes, young men might get out. But really who respects property rights in this world? Just about every country has instituted corona measures, I use that as a guide. If the Rona measures are there, then the taxation system will be coming to pay the 'debt'. Best bet is probably a place where the Rich hold their private money, whether real property or legal structures. Eg. Cayman islands

Only a very small percentage of people are going to up and move as tyranny enters into power. Most will hold strong where they are, where their families are. Look at history, most will try to hold through.
I believe you are correct, I think the US might be the best place to weather the coming storm, but I also believe in getting as much wealth as I can completely out of reach, and to me that is crypto, and I think more people every day are starting to think the same way.
 

aynrus

Pelican
VPNs, and in a few years Web 3.0, which will decentralize the internet once again. Web 3.0 is a second layer encrypted internet via blockchain.
Who do you think wins in the end, tyrannical government flunkies with fake money? Or the best minds on earth, who statistically believe in free speech, free markets, and property rights. If we win soon, the fall won’t be as painful. If it is prolonged, the suffering will be immense and my kids won’t see the spring time of America.
I’m betting they see the rise of a new era of more freedom, not a descent into socialist hell.
You can't decentralize the internet as it's heavily regulated and physical infrastructure is de-facto fully controlled by the governments.
VPNs? They'll just disconnect you for good if they catch you using VPN. Once they tie internet to ID like they already had done in some countries, they can pull the plug.

You really think the governments will allow fully anonymized Web 3.0? They never will. Anti-terrorist and anti-money laundering activities alone will not allow for that.
The governments just physically locked people down for a year, controlling the internet is no biggie and there will be no real resistance put up if there're heavy restrictions imposed like in China, just like to lockdowns.
People should look at history, to understand what governments can do. They can send you to get killed in a war, to a concentration camp, stopping your internet is no big deal compared to that.
 
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You can't decentralize the internet as it's heavily regulated and physical infrastructure is de-facto fully controlled by the governments.
VPNs? They'll just disconnect you for good if they catch you using VPN. Once they tie internet to ID like they already had done in some countries, they can pull the plug.

You really think the governments will allow fully anonymized Web 3.0? They never will. Anti-terrorist and anti-money laundering activities alone will not allow for that.
That may have worked in the past when governments could fence in the tax livestock with capital controls and the banking system. Now that the world is using crypto, productive, intelligent people and wealth will flow easily into open economies and away from indebted, dying, confiscatory ones. The financial Berlin Wall has been breached, and soon it will fall. This started with the digital nomads, and the trend will soon become universal, unless you are stuck in the physical economy. Then the transition is more difficult, but not insurmountable with enough carrot vs stick.
 

aynrus

Pelican
That may have worked in the past when governments could fence in the tax livestock with capital controls and the banking system. Now that the world is using crypto, productive, intelligent people and wealth will flow easily into open economies and away from indebted, dying, confiscatory ones. The financial Berlin Wall has been breached, and soon it will fall.

Oh yes, of course, "it's different this time" :)

Learn history, folks.
 
I’m not saying it’s different, I’m saying it is the same. Once a generation we have a crisis that has freedom trampled on, resulting in a bloody revolution that results in a quantum leap in freedom for all humanity. Was there less freedom after 1776? After 1865? 1945? Things got really bad, to the point of hopeless, then people became more free after than they ever had been. In my view we are about to turn that corner. There will be a crisis that shocks people so badly, governments will overplay their hands and there will be chaos and suffering. From those ashes there will be a Renaissance. Is 2025 the climax? That’s the ballpark, according to history.
 

AntoniusofEfa

Kingfisher
I’m not saying it’s different, I’m saying it is the same. Once a generation we have a crisis that has freedom trampled on, resulting in a bloody revolution that results in a quantum leap in freedom for all humanity. Was there less freedom after 1776? After 1865? 1945? Things got really bad, to the point of hopeless, then people became more free after than they ever had been. In my view we are about to turn that corner. There will be a crisis that shocks people so badly, governments will overplay their hands and there will be chaos and suffering. From those ashes there will be a Renaissance. Is 2025 the climax? That’s the ballpark, according to history.
Why 2025 is the ballpark in your opinion?
 
People think taxes are high but they think it won't get much worse. Scott Adams was a good example of this. Rich cartoonist paying high income tax in Californya-nya but that's okay because "I'll just make my money on the stock market and pay a reasonable capital gains tax." Now Biden is proposing to double the capital gains tax and Californya-nya is proposing bills for wealth tax, retroactive tax, making it very difficult to leave. It's only now he's seriously contemplating leaving the US.

Not only that, this is just what I've heard but the US government is now refusing people from renouncing their citizenship, because they can. Before it was just an progressively expensive and time consuming process but now they are telling you they hold the right to say no to your request. I would normally overlook this because I don't have US citizenship but it's become clear to me that a of western countries are now floating US ideas like extraterritorial taxes as if they were mini-US countries. It wouldn't surprise me if western countries began making it difficult or impossible to renounce citizenship in the near future.

I've heard this line of thinking from various people that as governments print and waste money and debase the currency they will inevitably be forced to raise taxes. This is how Modern Monetary Theory works. Print currency, spend currency, collect tax and destroy currency from circulation to prevent inflation. The issue is that rich people that own most of the wealth are simply not going to sell their assets, which means taxes don't happen, which means money circulating doesn't decrease. In other words, they will inevitably have to come after your stores of value whether it is property, stocks etc. I try explaining this to my leftist friends that buying property that keeps climbing in value due to inflation doesn't make them smarter than everyone else because the government will find a way to come after it soon. They don't believe me, I get puzzled looks like I'm talking conspiracy theories or science fiction. The same look on their faces when I explained why I'm investing in Bitcoin.

It might be the constant brainwashing from Nomad Capitalist but I think it's a solid idea now more than ever to have tax residency or passport in a low or zero tax country. I used to believe that things were bad but couldn't get much worse but looking at the trends I've completely reversed my position. Because of inflation which is now global and higher than ever, the cost of living for millennials and zoomers will get a lot worse in the coming years. This means people can't afford property, which means more government hand outs, more soycialism, more inflationary debasement, and this repeats in a positive feedback loop. I see that even the culture has shifted to the point where people hate on the likes of Bezos and Musk simply because they are billionaires. There isn't any more political will to fight ridiculous taxes and unless you put distance between yourself and government you are never safe.
 
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Coja Petrus Uscan

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Not only that, this is just what I've heard but the US government is now refusing people from renouncing their citizenship, because they can. Before it was just an progressively expensive and time consuming process but now they are telling you they hold the right to say no to your request.

Getting a Saint Kitts & Nevis passport is very high on my list. $280,000 for citizenship by real estate + fees. I'm worried if I ever go back to my country that I will never be allowed to leave again. Got six years. Another option is Vanuatu. Very good passport for a country in its economic situation and very beautiful. But it's $130,000 with nothing in return. BTC accepted.

rp.jpg
 
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St. Kitts looks like end game passport with 0 tax. Only negatives are the cost which is 150k + 35k in fees plus the 6 month processing time. Another issue it's the Caribbean which is not a central location and seems like it might be boring to live there half the year with nothing but a hot dog stand and a couple of other restaurants. There are faster, cheaper, more convenient options like residency in low/zero tax countries but the problem with that is laws and banking rules change so eventually with international pressure mounting you might be forced to move and sooner than you think.
 
Why 2025 is the ballpark in your opinion?
A saeculum is generally 80 to 100 years, and is when we have these cycles in western civilization, every 20-25 years a new season. This is Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. The book "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" was published in 1997.
First Turning: High (1947-1965)
Second Turning: Awakening (1965-1984)
Third Turning: Unraveling (1985-2008)
Fourth Turning: Crisis (2009-2030?)

The Crisis phase, especially the climax, is so shocking and terrible, that normies are motivated to change society fundamentally. The last Crisis started with economic shock in 1929, the great depression, a world wide economic crisis, and climaxed with WW2. That was roughly 80 years before the GFC in 2009. Prior to WW2, the Fourth Turning Crisis climaxed with the US Civil War in 1865, 80 years before the climax of WW2. 84 years before that was the climax of the American Revolution in 1781.

I think Bitcoin will have one more wave of adoption after the next halving in 2024, which will coincide with a fiat currency crisis.

I too am looking at St. Kitts.
 
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aynrus

Pelican
I’m not saying it’s different, I’m saying it is the same. Once a generation we have a crisis that has freedom trampled on, resulting in a bloody revolution that results in a quantum leap in freedom for all humanity. Was there less freedom after 1776? After 1865? 1945? Things got really bad, to the point of hopeless, then people became more free after than they ever had been. In my view we are about to turn that corner. There will be a crisis that shocks people so badly, governments will overplay their hands and there will be chaos and suffering. From those ashes there will be a Renaissance. Is 2025 the climax? That’s the ballpark, according to history.

Nah...it'll be the same old stuff repeated. Human nature does not change. There's nothing new under the moon. Everything new is well-forgotten old stuff.
There were no quantum leaps for humanity in the past, only the progress of corruption. Humanity had been getting only more depressed and unhappy from all the "progress". An average pigeon is happier than quantum-leaped human.

If you're comparing to 1945...in some countries every 4th person died in that war, including in one of my home countries...be careful what you wish for.... It won't be just the government banning cryptos and disconnecting the internetz, if came that point.
I consider all that "4th turning" stuff to be woo-doo stuff guessing game. I predicted current black swan event and inflation unleashed back in 2019, based on my past experience (which is outside the 1st world) and was vehemently argued against.
The government can disconnect your internetz any time they want to, they can also spy on all your activities, can ban vpns and can enforce it, they can fully control the internet with a stroke of a pen, and for sure can crush all cryptos (would talke Yellen give one speech). There's nothing revolutionary or truly innovative about cryptos, people can just use pink sea shells with the same purpose of alternative currency (disclaimer: I have a degree in computer science from a good US school, so not completely tech-illiterate, and I don't see any big deal about cryptos, seeing them as a pyramid scheme, mostly, to be exited on time).

Anyway, I'd rather not go into all that 4th turning crystal ball/tarot stuff, kind of pointless.
 
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aynrus

Pelican
Those boring Caribbean islands....all good till the locals decide to bbq land-stealing gringos and confiscate what they can from them. (have anyone looked up murder rates? And that's before any SHTF.)
World governments (or is it "world government" now?) ain't fools. There had been a war on offshores for a long time, largely successful, and things are going to get tighter, I'm pretty sure of that.
Anyone thinking of denouncing US citizenship needs to take a deep breath, relax and call their grandparents. Sure, there're more insane things that can be done, like climbing El Capitan ropeless.
 
Agriculture, the printing press, industrial revolution, and now the Information Age. These things have utterly transformed humanity. It took decades, but that is just a portion of a human life span. We can’t stop it, we can only adapt. You have access to all of human learning any time you want in the palm of your hand. That is a quantum leap. Who could have imagined that a generation ago?
People are unhappy because they don’t have any control of their lives. Generations ago a man decided his own fate by the decisions he made. This gave a sense of accomplishment of a problem overcome by effort and skill, and built self esteem. Now, you can’t really make decisions for yourself, everything is decided for you by men who have control of the most important aspects of your life, and you have no say. There is no sense of accomplishment because so many people are still plugged into the matrix, just a cog in the machine unable to do anything but pay and obey. You aren’t allowed to fail, you aren’t allowed to opt out or escape, just to exist to serve the machine.
Government is the sickness that afflicts society, not ”progress”. Progress is a free society where people can once again decide their own fate by their own minds, which will happen eventually.

Yellen can’t kill crypto with a speech, if you really believe that, I urge you to look closer at crypto, especially Bitcoin, again. Deep down, people in government know the USD is doomed. If It strengthens vs other currencies, bad things happen. If the Fed raises rates, bad things happen. If the Fed lowers rates, again, bad things. It’s Bitcoin or the digital Yuan, which do you think the US wants?
 
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NoMoreTO

Ostrich
Agriculture, the printing press, industrial revolution, and now the Information Age. These things have utterly transformed humanity. It took decades, but that is just a portion of a human life span. We can’t stop it, we can only adapt.

I don't agree with this assertion. Evolution teaches there is no stopping progress, but human beings decide who they want to be.

Yes innovation will occur, but science & technology are guided and can be limited by what we believe. Ted Kaczynski disagrees with me.
 

budoslavic

Owl
Gold Member
We all know what Biden's tweet means...

get ready for shortages. Gas, food, etc.


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