Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates & The Fed

NoMoreTO

Ostrich

(((Yellen))) Says Higher Interest Rates Would Be ‘Plus’ for U.S., Fed​



Something doesn't quite add up here. Inflation is running hot due to these policies. Unemployment is a function of Corona in my opinion, so why are they fighting unemployment when inflation is 4.2%.

They can't possible project that their near 0% rate is real when inflation is clearly running hot. I think what will happen is they will claim it's transitory until at least Fall 2021 / Winter 2022 when they get the Year over Year numbers. Even then they can just say they haven't hit their employment targets and keep printing.

What is meant by substantial progress? Higher inflation and higher unemployment?
The Fed has committed to only begin scaling back the $120 billion monthly pace of its asset purchases after there’s “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment.

Chair Jerome Powell, who took the reigns at the central bank from Yellen in 2018, has sought to convince investors that he’s not considering pulling back support for the economy any time soon. Powell and his colleagues have continued to project their key interest rate at near zero through 2023
 
The fed is going to have to kick in and start buying that 10 Year Note themeself to keep the rates low. This is my understanding. It's another layer of insanity in the financial system, but I think eventually the fed and US treasury will try to underwrite everything.

As Jeff Snyder has documented, the bond market always gets to lower rates long before the Fed does. Which shows the Fed's talk about raising or lowering rates is mostly BS. They aren't in control.
 

NoMoreTO

Ostrich
As Jeff Snyder has documented, the bond market always gets to lower rates long before the Fed does. Which shows the Fed's talk about raising or lowering rates is mostly BS. They aren't in control.
Well they can try to support it synthetically. QE essentially props up the bond market so the entire things is faked.

But I do agree, when people/institutional money is losing on their bond coupon due to inflation, who would buy such a thing.

I think this is part of the drive to digital, to allow for negative rates to keep the interest rates dropping so that people will buy the bond because the bond price will drop as the interest rates drop into the negative. Still, thinking this through is a total financial twilight zone.
 

budoslavic

Owl
Gold Member
Increases in demand for ammo continues to outpace supply as gun stores' shelves remain empty across the nation.

The Great Ammo Shortage (And Price Spike) of 2021: When Will It End?​

Anyone looking to “load up” or even to replenish their supply of ammunition will likely have to remain patient – at least for a while longer.

The “great ammo shortage” that began last year isn’t going to end anytime soon, and according to market research conducted by Southwick Associates shortages of ammunition will continue throughout the rest of 2021.
 
I've noticed the price of rental cars has doubled or even tripled in some areas. They are telling us that this is due to a lack of automobiles and supply chain shortages. I find this hard to believe. Coupled with the rise in gas prices one might think that the powers that be are intentionally preventing people from going anywhere. Is this all due to inflation or is it social engineering?
 
I've noticed the price of rental cars has doubled or even tripled in some areas. They are telling us that this is due to a lack of automobiles and supply chain shortages. I find this hard to believe. Coupled with the rise in gas prices one might think that the powers that be are intentionally preventing people from going anywhere. Is this all due to inflation or is it social engineering?
It’s called supply and demand. A ton of people are traveling and going on trips. Will even out towards the fall.
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
What do people think is the real impetus behind the Biden mega-"stimulus"? Other countries don't seem to be so aggressive. If it doesn't work I see things getting very orange in a few years.
US infrastructure is hecking awful.
I flew into Los Angeles LAX airport a couple of years ago and it was atrocious. I walked out of one door and suddenly found myself on the street ! When I was supposed to be heading to baggage claim (the airport was under construction). Yeah, anybody could have walked through that door and caused a "security threat" but I wasn't worried about that, the bigger issue was the place was literally falling apart, and there were no signs anywhere.

Then last January I arrived to Fort Lauderdale international airport and the experience was SO horrendous, I actually made an official complain to the feds running the port (it took them like 4 months to acknowledge it with a "thank you for your comments" letter. In the letter I told them I had been all over the world and this was by far the worst airport I had ever been to, and that includes Zimbabwe which is staffed by 2 customs workers and if you don't want to wait in the line you can just bribe them.

Our roads and bridges are under capacity and in many cases literally falling apart. We are well overdue for a big investment in public infrastructure (honestly that is the main purpose of government, you can forget all the military stuff as that comes into play maybe once every 50 years or so but you need your roads and hospitals and electricity every day).

There are parts of the US that look like third world countries. We have tent cities in MOST midsized and all major cities. The way we run things here, we wait until a problem has gone way too far before ever addressing it (ie race riots, the deficit, immigration, really any issue). We are LONG overdue for a New Deal style public works project before grandma flies off a bridge because the thing just collapses (this is happening a lot, just search google news).

I've found many times when I arrive in places like Namibia and Costa Rica that their roads and transportation are far superior to ours. Heck, taking a bus in Mexico is luxurious compared to the nightmare of using Greyhound in the USA. And our airports are literally third world, and of course it's completely horrible to experience travel due to the TSA.

Biden is not any different than any of the past leaders, that is to say, don't think of him as necessarily wrong on everything, the way Trump was viewed by the left. This is one good and necessary thing he is doing, to prevent the people from just being killed through neglect.
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
I've noticed the price of rental cars has doubled or even tripled in some areas. They are telling us that this is due to a lack of automobiles and supply chain shortages. I find this hard to believe. Coupled with the rise in gas prices one might think that the powers that be are intentionally preventing people from going anywhere. Is this all due to inflation or is it social engineering?
I think the most simple answer is simply that the US is anti-fragile.
Read Taleb's book.

The "pipeline shutdown" that happened and caused gas prices to briefly skyrocket, and many gas stations to run out of gas?

Well it turns out all the "hackers" did was cause some problems with the billing software the pipeline guys were using. There was NO problem with the pipeline's operation at all. No computer shuts down the valves going through the pipes (well, a system of electronics does, but not a "computer" the way we refer to them).

So instead of having an alternative payment method, or just billing upon delivery for the delivered gas, they just shut the whole thing down and blamed it on "Russian Hackers."

There are countless examples of this kind of incompetence in the lockdown. Just one personally is my farmer's market, it took them months to figure out how to handle in-car sales when they banned in-person visits to the market. This is the kind of stuff the third world organically figures out and makes run smoothly but the US just can't cut it. (In this case it appears the farmers market is administered by women--an intelligent man could figure out how to set up car lanes and have a logical distribution system in about 30 minutes).

Another example is how toiletries and cleaning products are STILL out of stock as of May 2021, a year and a half into this pandemic. Shout brand laundry stain remover is unavailable at any local store, and Amazon says it may have some (at 8x its former price) in 3 MONTHS. It is made of 4 ingredients I can buy today. I could easily make my own, and yet these billion dollar corporations have yet to adjust their production or distribution or whatever the problem is.

We are indeed extremely fragile.

To answer the question, it's hard to pinpoint exactly what the issue is without investigating it, but the bottom line is we are so fragile that car companies couldn't adapt or adjust to whatever it was.
 

Monty_Brogan

Woodpecker
Gold Member
I think the most simple answer is simply that the US is anti-fragile.
Read Taleb's book.

The "pipeline shutdown" that happened and caused gas prices to briefly skyrocket, and many gas stations to run out of gas?

Well it turns out all the "hackers" did was cause some problems with the billing software the pipeline guys were using. There was NO problem with the pipeline's operation at all. No computer shuts down the valves going through the pipes (well, a system of electronics does, but not a "computer" the way we refer to them).

So instead of having an alternative payment method, or just billing upon delivery for the delivered gas, they just shut the whole thing down and blamed it on "Russian Hackers."

There are countless examples of this kind of incompetence in the lockdown. Just one personally is my farmer's market, it took them months to figure out how to handle in-car sales when they banned in-person visits to the market. This is the kind of stuff the third world organically figures out and makes run smoothly but the US just can't cut it. (In this case it appears the farmers market is administered by women--an intelligent man could figure out how to set up car lanes and have a logical distribution system in about 30 minutes).

Another example is how toiletries and cleaning products are STILL out of stock as of May 2021, a year and a half into this pandemic. Shout brand laundry stain remover is unavailable at any local store, and Amazon says it may have some (at 8x its former price) in 3 MONTHS. It is made of 4 ingredients I can buy today. I could easily make my own, and yet these billion dollar corporations have yet to adjust their production or distribution or whatever the problem is.

We are indeed extremely fragile.

To answer the question, it's hard to pinpoint exactly what the issue is without investigating it, but the bottom line is we are so fragile that car companies couldn't adapt or adjust to whatever it was.
More like extremely Jewish.

And that’s wild that you compared Ft. Lauderdale intl to an African airport. LOL. Was it really that bad? I haven’t been through there in about 6 years but I didn’t think it was that bad.
 

Eusebius Erasmus

Kingfisher
I think the most simple answer is simply that the US is anti-fragile.
Read Taleb's book.

The "pipeline shutdown" that happened and caused gas prices to briefly skyrocket, and many gas stations to run out of gas?

Well it turns out all the "hackers" did was cause some problems with the billing software the pipeline guys were using. There was NO problem with the pipeline's operation at all. No computer shuts down the valves going through the pipes (well, a system of electronics does, but not a "computer" the way we refer to them).

So instead of having an alternative payment method, or just billing upon delivery for the delivered gas, they just shut the whole thing down and blamed it on "Russian Hackers."

There are countless examples of this kind of incompetence in the lockdown. Just one personally is my farmer's market, it took them months to figure out how to handle in-car sales when they banned in-person visits to the market. This is the kind of stuff the third world organically figures out and makes run smoothly but the US just can't cut it. (In this case it appears the farmers market is administered by women--an intelligent man could figure out how to set up car lanes and have a logical distribution system in about 30 minutes).

Another example is how toiletries and cleaning products are STILL out of stock as of May 2021, a year and a half into this pandemic. Shout brand laundry stain remover is unavailable at any local store, and Amazon says it may have some (at 8x its former price) in 3 MONTHS. It is made of 4 ingredients I can buy today. I could easily make my own, and yet these billion dollar corporations have yet to adjust their production or distribution or whatever the problem is.

We are indeed extremely fragile.

To answer the question, it's hard to pinpoint exactly what the issue is without investigating it, but the bottom line is we are so fragile that car companies couldn't adapt or adjust to whatever it was.
Taleb is a great writer, and I like a few of his ideas, but he is also controlled opposition.

Remember that he, of all people, called the 'lab leak hypothesis' a conspiracy theory and a hoax back in May of 2020. When people called him out on this recently, he locked his Twitter account:


He has also come out in favour of vaccines, masks, etc.
 
It’s called supply and demand. A ton of people are traveling and going on trips. Will even out towards the fall.
Spoken like someone freshly indoctrinated into the world of economic ideology. Yeah, maybe it will even out when the people that decided to get the experimental mRNA gene therapy start dying off during the next flu season due to antibody dependent enhancement and pathogenic priming. What we are witnessing is profiteering for the most part. The shortages, much like the so called cyber hacks, are complete nonsense that only a normie would buy.
 

budoslavic

Owl
Gold Member


The task force will hold meetings with stakeholders and supply-chain experts and announce results in the near term, said Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.“There will be more information forthcoming on precise measures that this more near-term initiative will be taking in weeks not months,” Bernstein said in an interview with David Westin on Bloomberg Television Tuesday.


(((Jared Bernstein)))...

EOiOdKiXsAAcgeT
 

Max Roscoe

Pelican
More like extremely Jewish.

And that’s wild that you compared Ft. Lauderdale intl to an African airport. LOL. Was it really that bad? I haven’t been through there in about 6 years but I didn’t think it was that bad.
I think I posted about it before, but YES, it was BY FAR the worst air travel experience ever.

FLL is a huge port of entry. They had FOUR customs workers manning the entry booths (normally I see 20+ in the US and even tiny countries typically have more than 4). The line was so long that it came out to baggage claim. AND THEN it wrapped ENTIRELY AROUND the huge baggage claim room perimeter. The line was so large that the airport workers were confused. Someone asked one where the line began, and they pointed near me, and I said, no, I waited 45 minutes to get here, it wraps ALL around the building. The workers eyes went wide and she looked bewildered, unable to comprehend that.

Peoples baggage was just laying all around, there were probably 1,000 people waiting to be processed by 4 workers. It would be very easy to pick up luggage and steal it. There were no signs, there was no direction, it wasn't even clean which way you needed to walk, nothing. And the kicker.... when I got to the customs agent she did not even look at my passport, but just waved me through! The line was so long they didn't have time to check anyones papers!

I briefly asked her if this absurd wait was because I flew (for the first and last time) the budget Spirit airlines, and she sighed and said "No, this is our new system". So everyone waited an hour just to be waved through. People missed flights for literally nothing. And of course if you care about security screening of foreigners, well that didn't happen at all! The height of absurdity.

I was traveling alone, and spoke English, but if one was with a family, or was a tourist that didn't speak good English (the majority of passengers appeared foreign) it would be a disaster. I was able to quickly slide in an opening, discreetly cutting in line, but still waited about an hour. I made my flight with 5 minutes to spare. I saw a line of about 100 people waiting to be rebooked, and I'm sure many of those behind me were also missing their flights.

The kicker was at the end there was a giant stand with the photos of two well dressed uniformed white guys, the Port of Entry Manager and head of the customs and border office. I snapped a photo of it and tried to contact them both. One's phone was disconnected, the other went to what sounded like a black drug dealers voicemail. These are guys probably pulling $130k salaries paid by us, and they are running things worse than the corrupt officials in Zimbabwe. I just imagined if I were Chinese and I experienced that same series of events, what a total joke of a country I would think America was. This is not hyperbole when I say it was worse than Zimbabwe. I will NEVER fly into FLL.
 

Blade Runner

Pelican
Taleb is a great writer, and I like a few of his ideas, but he is also controlled opposition.

Remember that he, of all people, called the 'lab leak hypothesis' a conspiracy theory and a hoax back in May of 2020. When people called him out on this recently, he locked his Twitter account:


He has also come out in favour of vaccines, masks, etc.
I think he is best explained by having many talents and in the social media or media gone wild world, EGO gets the best of some, or will eventually if the ego is too big. That's the case here. The best thing he could do by far is admit that on this topic, he got it wrong. It would show that his character is elevated, which is far more important than being "smart" or a good mental processor of things.
 

Eusebius Erasmus

Kingfisher
I think he is best explained by having many talents and in the social media or media gone wild world, EGO gets the best of some, or will eventually if the ego is too big. That's the case here. The best thing he could do by far is admit that on this topic, he got it wrong. It would show that his character is elevated, which is far more important than being "smart" or a good mental processor of things.
It’s either ego or the fact that he’s a crypto-globalist like many former Wall Street bros. Regardless, he’s totally unhinged on Twitter and when it comes to CV19.
 
Top