Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates & The Fed

NoMoreTO

Hummingbird
Gas and Housing seem to be the most expensive/inflated.

Inflation in Canada accelerated to the fastest pace since 2003, a political headache for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau only five days before an election.

The consumer price index rose 4.1 per cent in August from a year earlier, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday in Ottawa, marking the fifth consecutive month of inflation readings above the Bank of Canada’s 3 per cent cap. That’s the highest since March 2003, when it touched 4.2 per cent. Economists were predicting a yearly gain of 3.9 per cent. A surge in housing costs has been a key driver in annual inflation.

Gasoline and the homeowners’ replacement cost index-- related to new home prices -- were the largest upside contributers to annual inflation in August. The shelter index rose 14.3 per cent in August from a year earlier.....Gas prices rose 32.5 per cent,....

Inflation_Bloomberg_Canada


 
Making Bitcoin illegal will only spur adoption at an exponential rate, because that would give it an overnight legitimacy that would get a lot of people immediately off the fence. It also can’t be attacked on a protocol level, as far as anyone (the most intelligent computer scientists in the world) knows. The most likely attack vector is through the media/govt FBI,CIA psyop against prominent Bitcoin holders. For instance, using Govt back doors at tech companies, they compile the most unflattering dossier on someone like Michael Saylor or Raul Pal, or even fabricate one. Smear as many Bitcoiners as possible, so that if you own Bitcoin, you are associated with child pornography and devil worship…whatever is the hot button of the week for the programmed masses. That is what comes next folks…if it hits 5 or 10 trillion, it’s going to be war.
 

BURNΞR

Pelican
I think that even if you believe that, bitcoin is a fantastic hedge for government tyranny. The government cannot "freeze" your bitcoin that's on a hardwallet. If for some reason you needed to leave a country ASAP, you could move with either just a harddrive or some memorized words and take your life savings with you. I know you'd lose a lot money trying to then convert it back to fiat in whatever country you moved to (except El Salvador), but you'll lose a lot less than if you tried to flee with cash or even precious metals, which could be taken at the border or when your tried to board the plane. I guess Gold or diamonds might be an exception since they are so valuable and small, but it's still not as mobile.

For example look at Nick Fuentes. 400k from his bank, gone overnight. Literally just gone because the government felt like taking it. Yes he could have had that in silver, but that's a lot of silver to take with you or even sell. Even 400k in gold would be a bit awkward.

This backs up my earlier point that your bank account balance is just an IOU that the bank or government can take away from you without notice. Had he kept his donation in BTC or bought property he would still own it. Must suck to be on a no-fly no-bank no-app list. Sounds like legit grounds for political asylum in Russia or China.

Wouldn't you still most likely still need to plug your computer into the internet to transfer the bitcoin? If so, then this is the point of weakness with bitcoin, you still have to plug in to use it. If it were made illegal, you couldn't purchase items online with it. If not you would have to transfer it directly onto someone's machine? However, once you are transferring the bitcoin outside of the use of the internet, then the bitcoin would lose alot of it's value as it requires a face to face interaction, complicated by the use of computers.

This is why I would favour beans, bullets, and precious metals of the noble savages. They are tangible. If we are planning on being outside the system, then my assumption is that we would be moving back in time, to a simpler tangible good or service for barter. Anything plugged into a computer in my mind is less secure. Just like a text conversation is less secure than a one on one these days. From what I am seeing they are looking to lean totally on information tracking.


I like bullets, food, precious metals but this is apocalypse level stuff. Even in such a world I would argue BTC would still have value overseas (think China or Singapore) where things are still comfy. Problem with the bullet/food/metals/property is that if your country becomes Venezuela everything you have drops with it because it is valued in the local currency. You would have to somehow convert your bullets/silver/property to BTC or to USD and get it out of the country. The problem with this is that when your country becomes Venezuela nobody wants to buy your stuff and if they do you'll be offered a fraction of what it's worth. This is how rich people get stuck holding their bags and lose everything, because they think the situation will get better with time. If you decide to stay in Venezuela then you have to store your valuables and protect it. The second part sounds like it will be difficult or exhausting.

You don't even need the internet or electricity just the 12 word phrase and this can be stored on paper or in your mind. After you leave to China or somewhere else they will have internet and electricity and value your crypto. If the entire world resembles The Road then crypto is meaningless because people have become cannibals and survival is the pressing issue.
 
I think this is what the deflationists don't address - how will all this debt deflate without the government defaulting on its entitlement and military and interest spending? If the government doesn't default then the dollar has to devalue.

A good question. It is already defaulting by destroying the system and creating the expectation of reduced services. What did you think the lock-downs were about or our military retreats across the globe? Go check Medicare payments for 2019 vs 2020. Yes, that's a decrease!

Also, I wouldn't take anything a CFO says seriously. However, notice the negatives on your rates chart. Inflationistas ignore this because they usually have something to sell at inflated prices, sometimes but not always gold, while screaming about "wheel barrels of money."

To cure an inflationista: just broaden the chart and put the data in historical context.
 

Dissimilarty

Sparrow
Orthodox Inquirer
Go check Medicare payments for 2019 vs 2020. Yes, that's a decrease!

Serious question. Who told you about that and was it used to bolster the narrative you gave? That interpretation is completely wrong. Medicare spending went down because people delayed medical services due to fear of covid. Medicare advantage companies were literally sending out debit cards with hundreds of dollars on them to some plans' members because they are required by law to spend a certain amont on members or lose funding.

I think you're going to have a tough road arguing against inflation. The question is whether its due to supply issues or govt spending.
 

Dissimilarty

Sparrow
Orthodox Inquirer
I think this is what the deflationists don't address - how will all this debt deflate without the government defaulting on its entitlement and military and interest spending? If the government doesn't default then the dollar has to devalue.

If you're serious about this question, then you need to actually address and define what you mean by "devalue" and not just use "whatever fits my narrative that its devaluing." Are you talking about inflation as measured by CPI? Comparing to gold? Comparing to asset prices like homes and stocks? Comparing to other currencies as measured by some dollar index?
 
Who told you about that and was it used to bolster the narrative you gave?

Please re-read what I wrote in relation to your response to see what you missed.

Either way some of us, when we wonder about things, look up the numbers ourselves, compare our thoughts to reality, and figure out how the system works. Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. So, no one told me about that; I do my homework.

Arguing against inflation? lol. I don't have to because there isn't any. You've got your supply shocks you can try to make your case with but that's about it.
 

Dissimilarty

Sparrow
Orthodox Inquirer
Please re-read what I wrote in relation to your response to see what you missed.

Either way some of us, when we wonder about things, look up the numbers ourselves, compare our thoughts to reality, and figure out how the system works. Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. So, no one told me about that; I do my homework.

Arguing against inflation? lol. I don't have to because there isn't any. You've got your supply shocks you can try to make your case with but that's about it.

I reread multiple times and dont see what I missed. Are you not claiming they are reducing expectations/services, etc? They didn't and aren't. Utilization went down. They continue to expect spending more, not less.

I wasnt trying to be a dick by asking that question. Rather, I was attempting to point out that such a source would need to be approached with caution if you'd gotten it from some "expert." Apologies if you took it as such.

As to inflation, if you mean "supply shocks" as in Fed speak of "transitory," that's the question. Even the fed doesnt deny inflation, they claim it'll go away as supply heals. But the issue is whether it will heal with the Great Reset/climate agenda/regulation. They are basically saying "we didnt do it," and I assume we both agree with them on that.
 
I reread multiple times and dont see what I missed. Are you not claiming they are reducing expectations/services, etc? They didn't and aren't. Utilization went down. They continue to expect spending more, not less.

You seemed to state the reduction would have been a result of Covid-19 but that was my point. They're using the pandemic as a lie for failing systems. Link below for medicare spending in billions. Rather than an increase, as we would expect, there was a substantive decrease. I wasn't surprised to see this given other factors.


I'd like to hear more about this topic if you're informed on it.

I wasnt trying to be a dick by asking that question. Rather, I was attempting to point out that such a source would need to be approached with caution if you'd gotten it from some "expert." Apologies if you took it as such.

Wait, am I not an expert? :p

As to inflation, if you mean "supply shocks" as in Fed speak of "transitory," that's the question. Even the fed doesnt deny inflation, they claim it'll go away as supply heals. But the issue is whether it will heal with the Great Reset/climate agenda/regulation. They are basically saying "we didnt do it," and I assume we both agree with them on that.

What the Fed says is irrelevant. They're just a marketing dept. We're already seeing the "healing" in markets as re-alignments take place now that we seem to be past the supply shocks (and you're seeing this across the global economy).
 

Dissimilarty

Sparrow
Orthodox Inquirer
You seemed to state the reduction would have been a result of Covid-19 but that was my point. They're using the pandemic as a lie for failing systems. Link below for medicare spending in billions. Rather than an increase, as we would expect, there was a substantive decrease. I wasn't surprised to see this given other factors.

I'd like to hear more about this topic if you're informed on it.

Again, spending went down due to beneficiaries not utilizing services because of fear of corona (remember all of the stories about cancer patients, preventive screenings, empty hospitals, etc).

No significant changes to benefits were made last year or this year, and judging by the amount Medicare Advantage plans are receiving per enrollee and the budget of CMS, there is no expectation of reducing benefits in the near term at the very least.

In fact, the massive decrease in public health care expenditure during a "pandemic" to the point of hospitals being shuttered due to unprofitability shows just how ridiculous this all is.

What the Fed says is irrelevant. They're just a marketing dept. We're already seeing the "healing" in markets as re-alignments take place now that we seem to be past the supply shocks (and you're seeing this across the global economy).

I hope you're right but dont see it. I think it's only the end of the beginning.
 

zoom

Kingfisher
Gold Member
Making Bitcoin illegal will only spur adoption at an exponential rate, because that would give it an overnight legitimacy that would get a lot of people immediately off the fence. It also can’t be attacked on a protocol level, as far as anyone (the most intelligent computer scientists in the world) knows. The most likely attack vector is through the media/govt FBI,CIA psyop against prominent Bitcoin holders.

It's interesting that you think that the government doesn't already control/influence Bitcoin. You've done research on Blockstream?
 

vstk

Pigeon
Seriously considering investing 20% of my income into gold coins starting from Jan 2022. Is this a good idea? Curious to hear your thoughts
In my opinion it is a good idea to own a little bit of gold as a diversifier. However it has been a poor inflation hedge and a poor long term investment. I don't think this will change.

Let's not forget that inflation adjusted prices of gold are lower now than they were in 1980, and in the meantime consumer prices have been multiplied by 3.5

Over a shorter time frame, if I had to guess, I think bonds will resume going down and will take gold prices down with them.
 

vstk

Pigeon
I think this is what the deflationists don't address - how will all this debt deflate without the government defaulting on its entitlement and military and interest spending? If the government doesn't default then the dollar has to devalue.
We saw not so long ago that it was possible to have asset prices inflation from QE, a very high level of debt AND a deflationary consumer price environment (look at 2011-2016). I think one has to be open minded. I am ready for both hyperinflation and deflation.
 

Coja Petrus Uscan

Crow
Orthodox Inquirer
Gold Member

How do you store your wealth across time? Gold can’t. Fiat paper can’t. Realestate can’t. How do you bring your life’s wealth across a border, if your country becomes hostile?

This happened to me. Took 6 months of working day and night to return to normal access. Meanwhile, even when I was kicked off a crypto exchange they just told me to withdraw. Hardware wallet is permissionless.

Seriously considering investing 20% of my income into gold coins starting from Jan 2022. Is this a good idea? Curious to hear your thoughts

It depends. All the assets mentioned here have their pros and cons. They also have their prime entry points. If you bought physical gold at $1,100 you have done well. My desire to hold gold is not necessarily to make gains in purchasing power, thought that would be nice. I'd like to hold it physically as a hedge against considerable instability. It is probably useless in major instability. In that case you want a rural property, land, wood, water, seeds, weapons. I want gold for the possibility of being banned from clown world, hyperinflation etc. We know how it will react or what its use is in those circumstances.

As you are starting out in life I would:

- work on getting a property. I don't know what country you are in, but presume it is EE. You could get a decent home with land and add to it and renovate it. Keep large food stores that you eat from and regularly add to your supplies
- wait for the next crypto crash and then start buying every month
- with gold either wait for a depression in the price or buy monthly
- the same with select stocks in markets likely to grow

The problem is, at the moment, most things are overvalued.

Buying monthly and holding regardless is the best for most people, particularly those with little knowledge or time to invest.
 

orthoaussie2121

Sparrow
Orthodox
Not sure if this is the correct thread. But I will just leave this here.
 
Margin calls, you say? Yes, those are not inflationary. China just might infect the rest of the world when everyone else is already about to go down. Either way all eyeballs on commodities. Don't let inflationistas trick you into buying when you should be selling.

The US Equity Market Just Suffered Its 2nd Biggest Selling-Wave In History​



As futures indicated, the US cash equity open was greeted by an avalanche of selling, breaking the S&P back below its 50DMA...
 

C-Note

Hummingbird
Gold Member
Margin calls, you say? Yes, those are not inflationary. China just might infect the rest of the world when everyone else is already about to go down. Either way all eyeballs on commodities. Don't let inflationistas trick you into buying when you should be selling.

The US Equity Market Just Suffered Its 2nd Biggest Selling-Wave In History​


I'm curious to see if it rallies tomorrow. If there's another big selloff, then we might finally be seeing that crash we've been predicting for four years now.
 
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