It'll crash ... next year.
Keeping any more than what's necessary for day to day transactions in the bank account is a losing proposition, and given the state of the US dollar, an increasingly risky bet in the event of hyperinflation. There are other options - foreign bank accounts in foreign denominated currencies. Sure, many other countries have their problems too, but there are currencies not being printed at the rate we are printing which are less likely to inflate (CHF, CAD, DKK, SEK, AUD, and GBP, to a lesser extent).Are your savings safe in your bank account? Waiting for prices to drop on certain items in the next while, or is now the time to get in?
A separate Thread for trying to determine whether we are heading into a deflationary or inflationary environment. We can also use this thread to track price changes in specific goods/services. I believe deflation and inflation will occur at the same time dependant on products, but that inflation will be what is coming in the next 5 - 10 years.
Inflation article for quote below
I think the “dollar milkshake theory” holds in the short-medium term, or appears to. The reason it appears to, even if there is no ”straw”, is the glass is much bigger than it appears, due to Eurodollars. A majority of the “dollars” are created by banks outside of the United States, so the Fed can print trillions, but those are so diluted by the sheer size of the system that it’s not immediately noticeable.I generally agree, @chance vought , and your thesis sounds very similar to Erik Townsend of MacroVoices. I have had the theory of inflation first then deflation, and we are seeing that, but it is complicated by supply chains and fake covid narratives/artifical control responses by world governments. You could also say that your theory is akin to the milkshake theory put forth by Brent Johnson, who I like because he's one of the most realistic and honest macro thinkers out there, from both a geopolitical and economic point of view.
Who creates the "dollars" vis a vis "Eurodollar" system?I think the “dollar milkshake theory” holds in the short-medium term, or appears to. The reason it appears to, even if there is no ”straw”, is the glass is much bigger than it appears, due to Eurodollars. A majority of the “dollars” are created by banks outside of the United States, so the Fed can print trillions, but those are so diluted by the sheer size of the system that it’s not immediately noticeable.
My very basic understanding: foreign banks create them through lending, same as US banks. Since the “petro dollar” creation there is huge demand for dollars, created by European banks to loan to various state actors that the US has tried to financially ostracize. USSR and other disfavored states created entities that with some legal gymnastics were able to obtain these US dollars (like most dollars, they are just numbers in a ledger on a computer, not actual greenbacks) from non-US banks. Since all middle east oil had to be sold in US dollars, disfavored countries had to obtain those dollars somehow if they didn't have sufficient domestic oil.Who creates the "dollars" vis a vis "Eurodollar" system?
How high do you think the US debt goes before the confidence crisis?
People hear stories about what their great grandmother did and mistakenly apply that to future scenarios where everything goes to crap. But hoarding cash worked during the depression because the dollar still had value. People were stealing apples that cost five cents apiece.Other savers will try and escape the banking system by holding assets or physical cash, but if we have a digital dollar, there will be a punitive exchange rate from physical dollars to digital, so either way, they can charge negative interest on your money.
Not sure how much longer the clown show can continue from there, but I assume smart people will start holding Bitcoin by that point, and opting out of the whole system.
Don't worry, I heard there's a plane load of Afghani jingle truck drivers on the way, very eager to take over. For cheap, of course.
LONDON (AP) — Thousands of British gas stations ran dry Sunday, an industry group said, as motorists scrambled to fill up amid a supply disruption due to a shortage of truck drivers. The Petrol Retailers Association, which represents almost 5,500 independent outlets, said about two-thirds of its...apnews.com
This is likely connected to their crackdown on Bitcoin mining everywhere except Shanghai, if I recall correctly. Shanghai uses a lot of power from hydroelectric, whereas the miners shut down elsewhere were using fossil fuels needed for other power production. That and China is working on their own CBDC (central bank digital currency) and wants to wipe out unauthorized BTC miners.I have a source that's knowledgeable about importing/production in China and he tells me that the electricity shortage situation is causing less capacity there, this combined with the high freight rates (200-300% higher than historical) means that we are going to see much higher prices and stockouts on retail shelves this Christmas for anything that's typically imported from China.
Michael Burry also made a tweet about this too, he's serious about the view that we are gong to see a lot more inflation: